The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Kahran Ramsus]

It won't lose money. But it could very well not make much either, especially in comparison to Sony's investment.

 

[Tobias]

I see this film having a similar performance to Man of Steel. That is why my prediction has not shifted. I am sticking with $550-650 million. That isn't bad by any means in terms of budget to gross ratio, but compared to the expectation, the disparity will be palpable.

I think it will do better quite a bit better than MOS because Spidey is so popular OS.

MOS grossed 668 million. Budget 225 and marketing 100 million. So TSASM2 was a significantly more expensive film.

 

[samsnee]

Yeah domestic could be soft but I think it will be huge overseas.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Sony changed their forecast for company performance. They were anticipating a loss of a little over a billion (yes, that's a b) dollars. They're now anticipating a loss of $200 million more than that. If this movie loses money their investors may very well pressure them to sell off the rights.

If ASM2 only makes 650 m it will still be one of Sony's biggest hits in recent years.

Investors are more likely to demand production/marketing budget cuts for ASM3 than get rid of the franchise all together.

 

[Eddie]

If ASM2 only makes 650 m it will still be one of Sony's biggest hits in recent years.

Investors are more likely to demand production/marketing budget cuts for ASM3 than get rid of the franchise all together.

That is not how it works. A $650 million movie is not a big hit when it's budget (with marketing) is well over half of that total, especially with Sony no longer having merchandise rights. As for their investors not trying to get Sony to sell the franchise, it's worth noting that Sony has been selling a fair amount of their stuff lately. They've recently sold their PC business, as well as some stock that they held in Square Enix. Some time ago, they sold two of their buildings. They are in sell mode.

 

[spiderman2]

the thing is if the movie makes 650 that would be a big drop form the first one and 2 spider man movies in a row making less then the one before. If it makes only 650 million whats going to happen with the 3erd one? Is it going to only make 600-550 million. When you spend 200 plus on budget witch most big action movie do plus how ever much on marketing the movie needs to make a lot. Its not like this is some comedy that only has a budget of 50 million where 500 million would be a good profit. Its alrease said that it takes money to make money witch is true has a lot of movies that make a lot also take a lot to make.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If ASM2 only makes 650 m it will still be one of Sony's biggest hits in recent years.

Investors are more likely to demand production/marketing budget cuts for ASM3 than get rid of the franchise all together.

If it does that, the investors will be losing quite a bit of money. Quite a bit. And considering the contracts for TASM3, not sure how they could ask to slice the production budget.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

If this movie only makes $650 million worldwide, the Sony boardroom will resemble the Red Wedding afterwards.

 

[TeeKay]

If this movie only makes $650 million worldwide, the Sony boardroom will resemble the Red Wedding afterwards.

 

[JKKS085]

BoM/Subers is forecasting 91 millions for the week end:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3833&p=.htm

1. Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $91 million
2. The Other Woman - $13.6 million (-45%)
3. Captain America - $9.4 million (-42%)
4. Heaven is for Real - $9.3 million (-35%)
5. Rio 2 - $8.6 million (-38%)

That doesn't sound good. So far we have numbers in the 86/94 range (86/90/91/94) predicted for the week end. I'm really wondering if there's a scenario in which this film could gross less than 90 millions owe.

 

[Eddie]

Forbes thinks it's going to do over $100 million. I have no idea how accurate they are, though. My personal guess is that it will do within $3 million of Cap 2.

EDIT: To make myself clear, I think it'll do +/- $3 million of Cap's opening. It will do way better than Cap this week.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

It doesn't mean much besides bragging rights, but it will still be a bitter pill to swallow for Sony if it opens under Captain America (at best Marvel's #3 franchise with an early April release date).

 

[JKKS085]

I mean what's particularly worrying is that we went from 110/120 millions predictions a couple of weeks ago to 100 millions a week ago to a handful of numbers within the 90 millions range today. That's never good.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Yep, Cap2 is headed north of $250m or within spitting distance of TASM.
So under Cap2 means well below it's own predecessor.

This film series has only declined in returns since the first one debuted. I don't think we should really be surprised.

Actually Spider-Man 3 performed above the first Spider-Man. And I think Spider-Man 2 would have performed better if it opened in May instead of the end of June.

It's frankly performed like Fox's X-Men films, all performing downwardly since X3:TLS through The Wolverine. Will DOFP change that? It's not looking like TASM2 is going to but the jury is out.

Actually, while the X-Men franchise has been declining domestically for returns, it's been increasing internationally. International returns for the X-Men films allowed X-Men: First Class and the Wolverine to perform on par with the original films in the series.

I think we're going to see the same think with X-Men: Days of Future Past, we will see continuing declining returns domestically, especially since the box office will be packed with the Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, Neighbors, Maleficent, A Million Ways to Die in the West, and unfortunately Blended. However, I think that X-Men: Days of Future Past will perform extremely well in international markets and continue the trend of the X-Men films making increased returns for 20th Century Fox due to the growing appeal of the franchise overseas.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I disagree I don't see Days of Future Past making less than First Class domestically. I think it hits at least 220mil.

 

[JKKS085]

It doesn't mean much besides bragging rights, but it will still be a bitter pill to swallow for Sony if it opens under Captain America (at best Marvel's #3 franchise with an early April release date).

I think the bitterest pill to swallow would be if the movie falls to #2 next week end and gets beaten by Neighbors (which seem to be getting pretty good reviews). That would be tough.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I disagree I don't see Days of Future Past making less than First Class domestically. I think it hits at least 220mil.

It's a very good possibility that Days of Future Past will do better than First Class. First Class kinda gave the X-Men franchise a much needed reinvigoration that it desperately needed since The Last Stand and Origins: Wolverine.

 

[Green Day]

My new prediction is
OW 85m
Dom 197m
OS 500m
WW 697m

 

[Ms. Marvel]

My new prediction is
OW 85m
Dom 197m
OS 500m
WW 697m

Dammmnnnnn.

 

[Dizzy McCool]

If this movie only makes $650 million worldwide, the Sony boardroom will resemble the Red Wedding afterwards.

You win the award for the best internet comment of the day!

 

[Green Day]

Dammmnnnnn.

I think this film has a lot of competition to deal with plus Winter Solider has only been out for a month.

 

[donkey kong]

Probably 185 mil for me, X Men will obliterate Andrew Garfield's sexy legs.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

The elephant in the room is that Avi Arad should not be allowed around these properties anymore. I think he was good for these films in the beginning, but after a while he was a hindrance. He was all but shut out of the Iron Man production save the casting of Terrance Howard. After being fired from Marvel Studios, he had connections at Sony to stay on with Spider-man, but he's one of the big reasons for the problems with Spider-man 3.

This guy is also involved in a hypothetical MGS live action movie. Gold help us

 

[lukebrodyg]

It's a very good possibility that Days of Future Past will do better than First Class. First Class kinda gave the X-Men franchise a much needed reinvigoration that it desperately needed since The Last Stand and Origins: Wolverine.

I agree. It should be a solid winner for Fox since IMO fans of the original series will show as likely as fans of "First Class."

 

[chaseter]

Well I was off on my BO predictions because I didn't think this film would be a stinker. How can you make a worse film than ASM1? Well, they did it. WOM is going to hurt this movie and Godzilla is going to step all over the tiny bug while the X-Men lay the finishing blow.

If the movie cost $450 million, this will not make a profit PERIOD. Sony execs were hoping for $1 billion and that ain't happening. I won't be surprised if this comes at or under ASM1's total box office WW. All now I can hope for is Sony loses their pants on this and sells off their film division. PLEASE HAPPENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN