The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Kahran Ramsus]

Considering they won't make anything off the merchandise of this movie, they want a high profit from this film theatrically, on DVD, and in TV rights. Closer to 750 only just puts them in the black (which they at LEAST want to be in the black), but realistically, since Spider-Man is a top CBM grossing franchise, closer to 1 billion I think is what they wanted. Especially when they invested as much as they did marketing the film.

Anything less than a billion will probably be considered a disappointment based on the investment and Sony's desire to expand the brand. If ASM2 only makes a modest profit, what's Sinister Six or Venom going to do?

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Any numbers for Thursday screenings yet domestically?

What time did it start showing in America yesterday?

Just Midnight screenings or were there a few 9PM showings?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

They started the screenings at 7pm in my neck of the woods.

 

[lukebrodyg]

Considering they won't make anything off the merchandise of this movie, they want a high profit from this film theatrically, on DVD, and in TV rights. Closer to 750 only just puts them in the black (which they at LEAST want to be in the black), but realistically, since Spider-Man is a top CBM grossing franchise, closer to 1 billion I think is what they wanted. Especially when they invested as much as they did marketing the film.

That's ridiculous. I'm not hating on these films but Sony to expect 1 billion on this film is ridiculous. MAYBE had the ASM1 been better received and MAYBE if this was the first Spider-man sequel ever but 1B? Just no.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Anything less than a billion will probably be considered a disappointment based on the investment and Sony's desire to expand the brand. If ASM2 only makes a modest profit, what's Sinister Six or Venom going to do?

Agreed. Sony wants to do the "Marvel Method" with the Spidey-verse, and it isn't worth the investment to spin-off these characters if they only make slight incrimental bumps from film to film. Especially when TASM3 could cost them 300 or more just on the production cost alone.

That's ridiculous. I'm not hating on these films but Sony to expect 1 billion on this film is ridiculous. MAYBE had the ASM1 been better received and MAYBE if this was the first Spider-man sequel ever but 1B? Just no.

But with inflation factored in, the Raimi movies were billion dollar films in today's film environment. Those films all gross close to or above a billion just on inflation alone, but with the 3D boost Spider-Man gets now, a billion would have been EASY. But, this series has all those benefits and makes less. I know Sony isn't happy about it.

 

[lukebrodyg]

Agreed. Sony wants to do the "Marvel Method" with the Spidey-verse, and it isn't worth the investment to spin-off these characters if they only make slight incrimental bumps from film to film. Especially when TASM3 could cost them 300 or more just on the production cost alone.



But with inflation factored in, the Raimi movies were billion dollar films in today's film environment. Those films all gross close to or above a billion just on inflation alone, but with the 3D boost Spider-Man gets now, a billion would have been EASY. But, this series has all those benefits and makes less. I know Sony isn't happy about it.

Then all I can figure out is the issue is franchise fatigue. The MCU is still fresh. Raimi trilogy was fresh in it's time. It has to be franchise fatigue when considering your points about inflation and 3D/IMAX revenues.

 

[JOE]

What time did it start showing in America yesterday?

Just Midnight screenings or were there a few 9PM showings?

I went to a 7 p.m screening and there was also a 9:45 or 10 o'clock showing. The early Thursday release helps the OW numbers A LOT.

 

[Neno_Kos]

Anything less than a billion will probably be considered a disappointment based on the investment and Sony's desire to expand the brand. If ASM2 only makes a modest profit, what's Sinister Six or Venom going to do?

I can see Venom earning around 400-600 millions, but again with solid budget around 150 millions and not spending on marketing yet same amount of money as movie cost. Almost every Spider-man fan is going to see Venom movie, specially if Spidey have some role in it and specially if Venom is somehow connected with Sinister Six as Spidey getting black costume.

X-Men First Class had 150 million dollars budget and earned 350 million dollars. That isn't box office bomb.

 

[Mysteryman]

Spider-Man isn't going to be in the Venom film.
Then, it becomes a Spider_Man film.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I cannot not see a Venom film earning 600mil at all. To me that honestly would be the most shocking box office gross ever. Maybe 400mil at best.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The issue is the franchise isn't particularly well-liked, especially the second film. If it was as popular as TWS, I think Sony would have gotten close or exceeded that billion dollar mark. There is (or was) still interest in the character.

Now being four films removed from the last truly great Spider-Man film in the eyes of the majority, it is going to be a tough road back. X-Men is just off two really good films that drastically underperformed because the brand had been devalued so much. ASM2 might gross a little more than its immediate predecessor, but make no mistake, the trend for this franchise is pointing downwards overall.

That is a major, major problem for Sony.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Then all I can figure out is the issue is franchise fatigue. The MCU is still fresh. Raimi trilogy was fresh in it's time. It has to be franchise fatigue when considering your points about inflation and 3D/IMAX revenues.

I do believe thats what it is... plus, the game is changing and Sony will struggle to keep up.

Disney are ultilizing all their marvel properties, teaming them up and expanding the brand all within the one universe. WB will now be doing that with their DC library of characters... heck, they are teaming up BATMAN and SUPERMAN on the big screen. Let's see how they manage.

No matter how much people love the Spider-Man character, his FIFTH solo adventure (after a so-so rebirth) in the space of 12 years isn't really going to cause too much excitement.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The issue is the franchise isn't particularly well-liked, especially the second film. If it was as popular as TWS, I think Sony would have gotten close or exceeded that billion dollar mark. There is (or was) still interest in the character.

Now being four films removed from the last truly great Spider-Man film in the eyes of the majority, it is going to be a tough road back. X-Men is just off two really good films that drastically underperformed because the brand had been devalued so much. ASM2 might gross a little more than its immediate predecessor, but make no mistake, the trend for this franchise is pointing downwards overall.

That is a major, major problem for Sony.

Agreed. The problem isn't franchise fatigue. It is simply that we haven't had a Spider-Man film that lived up to the hype in now 10 years. That is a long time, guys. SM3 was an event, but one that disappointed everyone. TASM just sort of happened and was met with lukewarm enthusiasm. That is a problem. If you have an on-going franchise, you can't expect to go 10 years with mediocrity and hope to grow. Won't happen. People will lose interest eventually. SM2 was the last well received Spidey film...in 2004. Not good at all.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I cannot not see a Venom film earning 600mil at all. To me that honestly would be the most shocking box office gross ever. Maybe 400mil at best.

A Venom movie isn't going to be cheap to make either.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

A Venom movie isn't going to be cheap to make either.

Right. I don't see why a Venom film would cost less than a Spider-Man film.

 

[Spider-Fan]

A Venom movie isn't going to be cheap to make either.

Venom should cost the same as a Spider-Man film. Particularly if the villain is Carnage. But, I'd assume the investment would be like 150mil in that movie. So, it would feel like budget Spider-Man.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

So when should we expect Thursday numbers?

 

[Mysteryman]

The issue is the franchise isn't particularly well-liked, especially the second film. If it was as popular as TWS, I think Sony would have gotten close or exceeded that billion dollar mark. There is (or was) still interest in the character.

Now being four films removed from the last truly great Spider-Man film in the eyes of the majority, it is going to be a tough road back. X-Men is just off two really good films that drastically underperformed because the brand had been devalued so much. ASM2 might gross a little more than its immediate predecessor, but make no mistake, the trend for this franchise is pointing downwards overall.

That is a major, major problem for Sony.

I agree .
Sony can call it ASM2 all they want,
but its really the fifth film in the franchise .
So its grosses should be declining at this point .

 

[RVIDES]

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/amazing-spider-man-2-swings-to-8-7-million-in-late-night-thursday-in-u-s-1201170102/

8.7 Million Thur night

 

[JOE]

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/amazing-spider-man-2-swings-to-8-7-million-in-late-night-thursday-in-u-s-1201170102/

8.7 Million Thur night

I don't understand... It says it topped TASM's late night Thursday numbers by just over a million dollars... Didn't TASM release on a Tuesday lol?

 

[CaptainCraig]

Not good, not good at all.
Only $8.7m for Spiderman. CA:TWS did much better.

Not looking good for $100m, puts $90m into question I think.
It shows not even the diehard fandom turned out as strongly as they have before.

 

[Spider-Fan]

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/amazing-spider-man-2-swings-to-8-7-million-in-late-night-thursday-in-u-s-1201170102/

8.7 Million Thur night

Wow. TWS made more than TASM2 did on Thursday screenings domestically.

Who would of thought that was possible?

 

[lukebrodyg]

I do believe thats what it is... plus, the game is changing and Sony will struggle to keep up.

Disney are ultilizing all their marvel properties, teaming them up and expanding the brand all within the one universe. WB will now be doing that with their DC library of characters... heck, they are teaming up BATMAN and SUPERMAN on the big screen. Let's see how they manage.

No matter how much people love the Spider-Man character, his FIFTH solo adventure (after a so-so rebirth) in the space of 12 years isn't really going to cause too much excitement.

Agreed. I wonder if Sony's "keeping up" is the S6 and Venom films? If so, based on your theory it still won't work as it relates back to the hero in question vs Marvel and DC who are bringing in multiple.

Aside: I see WB managing well with BVS; not so sure about JL though...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That's an expected number to me. I still think it could hit 90+mil but I'd be shocked if it hit 100mil. It really depends on how many kids they can get to see it this weekend.

 

[lukebrodyg]

That's an expected number to me. I still think it could hit 90+mil but I'd be shocked if it hit 100mil. It really depends on how many kids they can get to see it this weekend.

Kids are a lock. "Adult kids" are the big ? in my opinion.