The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[grieven]

One month ago, I thought for sure this film would gross a billion. Seriously.

I thought $850 million without a doubt, with a great chance for $900 million +, and decent chance at one billion.

 

[Picard Sisko]

As I was entering the movie theater, this old guy noticed my Spider-Man sweater and said, "It's terrible. Just terrible!" Then the theater employees were discussing how much they hated the movie while I was waiting for the film to start. Clearly the word of mouth for this film is not very good. Even if it has good opening weekend box office revenue, I don't think this film will do too well overall.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I honestly wouldn't be surprises to see a 32-34mil Friday number. I'm expecting 35-36mil but I don't know we will see if my gut feeling means anything.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

As I was entering the movie theater, this old guy noticed my Spider-Man sweater and said, "It's terrible. Just terrible!" Then the theater employees were discussing how much they hated the movie while I was waiting for the film to start. Clearly the word of mouth for this film is not very good. Even if it has good opening weekend box office revenue, I don't think this film will do too well overall.

Picard Sisko, this is a very different tone from you. I am a bit... shocked.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Picard Sisko, this is a very different tone from you. I am a bit... shocked.

Well I haven't actually made a final decision on what I think about the film yet. But objectively speaking, based on reviews and WOM, this film is probably going to underperform. Sony was a little too confident about this movie it seems and I'm a little worried about the future of the franchise.

 

[Leenie]

As I was entering the movie theater, this old guy noticed my Spider-Man sweater and said, "It's terrible. Just terrible!" Then the theater employees were discussing how much they hated the movie while I was waiting for the film to start. Clearly the word of mouth for this film is not very good. Even if it has good opening weekend box office revenue, I don't think this film will do too well overall.

That kinda sucks that the employees were talking trash about a movie as people have purchased tickets for it. Not very professional, in my opinion.

 

[Picard Sisko]

That kinda sucks that the employees were talking trash about a movie as people have purchased tickets for it. Not very professional, in my opinion.

Although the older guy was giving his honest opinion, I sort of wish he didn't tell me the movie sucks right as I was entering the theater. And yeah, the theater employees were very unprofessional.

 

[TheVileOne]

I mean to be fair, it could still do very big business overseas. It's already made quite a bit overseas hasn't it? Like over $155 million.

So I mean by that rate, about half a billion overseas doesn't seem too unlikely.

 

[antonydelfini]

Youre having a hard time forming an opinion cause half of the movie is perfect and half of it is soooo bad. It's like there were two directors in this movie, one's passionate and brilliant and the other a hack.

BTW, I realized something after watching the movie, Spidey is my fave superhero. No hero brings out more passion and emotion in me than this character.

 

[Liam_H]

Even with half a billion overseas its going to come under the WW total of the first one with signs that this is gonna drop domestically.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

That kinda sucks that the employees were talking trash about a movie as people have purchased tickets for it. Not very professional, in my opinion.

Yeah, that was bad. It is one thing for consumers to be trashing the film, but this is not proper behavior from an employee. They should be getting a stern talking to from their manager.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well I haven't actually made a final decision on what I think about the film yet. But objectively speaking, based on reviews and WOM, this film is probably going to underperform. Sony was a little too confident about this movie it seems and I'm a little worried about the future of the franchise.

Ah, that fair. I wouldn't worry though, they are all in at this point. They have to make TASM 3. If anything, this reaction could make them rethink and up the quality on the whole.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Youre having a hard time forming an opinion cause half of the movie is perfect and half of it is soooo bad. It's like there were two directors in this movie, one's passionate and brilliant and the other a hack.

BTW, I realized something after watching the movie, Spidey is my fave superhero. No hero brings out more passion and emotion in me than this character.

Hmm. You know, TASM1 felt like a Marc Webb film. It had that nice little "indie" feel to it like (500) Days of Summer, but I didn't feel Webb's presence at all in this movie, even with the relationship scenes. It literally felt like a movie made by sony, and Webb was there just to shoot the movie for them. Now, I did enjoy it, and this isn't my way of "trashing" it, but I definitely felt a studio presence.

I mean to be fair, it could still do very big business overseas. It's already made quite a bit overseas hasn't it? Like over $155 million.

So I mean by that rate, about half a billion overseas doesn't seem too unlikely.

It really depends... I think the B.O. performance is going to drop severely in week 2 or 3.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Even with half a billion overseas its going to come under the WW total of the first one with signs that this is gonna drop domestically.

Between marketing and the film's budget, this film cost about $450 million... so that means that the film needs to earn around $800 million WW to make a decent profit.

 

[grieven]

Youre having a hard time forming an opinion cause half of the movie is perfect and half of it is soooo bad. It's like there were two directors in this movie, one's passionate and brilliant and the other a hack.

BTW, I realized something after watching the movie, Spidey is my fave superhero. No hero brings out more passion and emotion in me than this character.

I agree with you on both points. I think the movie has brilliant components but may not come together in as satisfying a whole as it should (though I'm going to solidify my opinion with a 2nd viewing this weekend). And Spidey has always been my favorite superhero. So relatable yet heroic, that character touches my soul, especially the way Garfield and Webb has portrayed him. I don't complain about their handling of the character at all. I loved TASM. I'm going to figure out what about TASM2 does and doesn't work for me as a film.

 

[ares834]

Between marketing and the film's budget, this film cost about $450 million... so that means that the film needs to earn around $800 million WW to make a decent profit.

450 millions?! Christ, where did all that money go because it certainly did not show in the effects.

 

[WilliamK99]

Many say it won't happen, but I say never say never on this.

Sony can't be all things to all people, it's in a billion-dollar bind and sooner or later, it's going to need to make choices.

They could easily get a ton of money plus a % of future grosses on Spider-man movies if they sell the rights back to Marvel... May just happen within the next few years...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think it will do well enough to garner a 3rd but I don't know if I believe those spin-offs are happening.

 

[Picard Sisko]

450 millions?! Christ, where did all that money go because it certainly did not show in the effects.

Well apparently the film's budget is around $250 million, but sony also decided to spend another $200 million on marketing.

 

[WilliamK99]

450 millions?! Christ, where did all that money go because it certainly did not show in the effects.

A large percentage of this was marketing, it was an annoying and "In Your face" campaign...Chances are I will not see this movie in the theatre because of the campaign, I basically know the movie....

 

[Tymminator]

I think it will do well enough to garner a 3rd but I don't know if I believe those spin-offs are happening.

The spin offs shouldn't happen IMO.

 

[Picard Sisko]

I think it will do well enough to garner a 3rd but I don't know if I believe those spin-offs are happening.

I think the sinister six movie has a chance of happening. Right now it seems like the plan is as follows:

TASM3 - 2016
S6 - 2017 (production starts in 2015)
TASM4 - 2018
Venom -???

We'll see how far they go. I do hope that the S6 film DOES happen, otherwise all of this would feel like it was for nothing.

 

[Picard Sisko]

A large percentage of this was marketing, it was an annoying and "In Your face" campaign...Chances are I will not see this movie in the theatre because of the campaign, I basically know the movie....

Actually there is a lot to the movie that hasn't been shown in the trailers. The issue is that a lot of what you see in the trailers didn't even make it to the final cut, so it almost feels like false advertising.

 

[ares834]

They could easily get a ton of money plus a % of future grosses on Spider-man movies if they sell the rights back to Marvel... May just happen within the next few years...

Hold your horses. Just because this film isn't going to make a billion dollars doesn't mean Sony is going to sell back the rights. It will still make around 700 mil which is very good. It may not make enough to cover it's inflated budget, but then hopefully Sony realizes not to spend so much dough on advertising.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Hold your horses. Just because this film isn't going to make a billion dollars doesn't mean Sony is going to sell back the rights. It will still make around 700 mil which is very good. It may not make enough to cover it's inflated budget, but then hopefully Sony realizes not to spend so much dough on advertising.

Sony will be okay if they learn their less for TASM3. If they have a repeat of TASM2 then they are in trouble, especially since the third may just gross a lot less than this movie.