The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[venom892]

That has been seemingly factored in. Which is why deadline is reporting around $750m for break even. If not we'd be looking at somewhere closer to $900m.

Holy ****, seriously? They must have a lot of faith in this one. Although I don't see why so much had to be spent to market a Spider-Man movie.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Really?

If MOS and Smurfs2 had most of their marketing covered by promo partners, and TASM2's marketing cost $220 mil after factoring partners (McDonald's, USPS, Evian, cereals, etc), that's crazy!

Well it wouldn't be that much. The budget is roughly $255m. So you would think that the marketing after factoring in the partners, would be around $115m. Also Sony doesn't get anything for merchandising with Spider-Man. They sound those rights back to Sony. So I don't even know what that means for partners.

Holy ****, seriously? They must have a lot of faith in this one. Although I don't see why so much had to be spent to market a Spider-Man movie.

The marketing is all about creating that brand. They want their Cinematic Universe. They want a world that wants Venom and Sinister Six films.

 

[venom892]

Honestly I think the demand for a Venom movie already exists.(Although, maybe I'm bias.) The sinister six idea seems a little forced, but that's a conversation for another thread.

 

[Liam_H]

There's a demand for a Venom movie?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I am sure there is a demand. But the reason they are pushing TASM2 and probably TASM3 so hard is because they want the kind of demand that will result in big box office numbers for the main series and the spinoffs.

 

[venom892]

There's a demand for a Venom movie?

Well I certainly think a Venom film can be sucessful as Venom was a huge character in the 90's and most people remember and it definitely has more of a build in audience than Sinister Six, which is a film I think shouldn't exist without Spider-Man's involvement at some level.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I honestly think a Venom movie is a terrible idea... but good luck to Sony for giving it a whack.

 

[venom892]

I would only want a Venom movie after the symboite has appeared in the main film series. I just think applying the MCU method to Spider-Man isn't that good of an idea.

 

[grieven]

With a Venom movie, I'd like them to have a director with a strong track record of directing horror. Having Kurtzman writing/directing gives me the biggest pause for concern.

 

[Perry9]

With a Venom movie, I'd like them to have a director with a strong track record of directing horror. Having Kurtzman writing/directing gives me the biggest pause for concern.

Sam Raimi?

Spoiler

GOD NO. JUST NO.

 

[hippie_hunter]

These are excuses. If the movie opens up low, this won't be a reason. The two week gap is extreme, but if people want to go to the theater and see it, they will. The last 4 MCU films proved that by opening OS first and then doing strong in the US.

But previous MCU films had international opening by a week. Two weeks is just too extreme. This whole idea of releasing films at different times is just stupid IMO. In today's day and age, they should just release the films at the exact same day in all major markets (US/Canada, UK/Ireland, Australia, China, Russia, France, South Korea, Germany, Japan).

 

[venom892]

But previous MCU films had international opening by a week. Two weeks is just too extreme. This whole idea of releasing films at different times is just stupid IMO. In today's day and age, they should just release the films at the exact same day in all major markets (US/Canada, UK/Ireland, Australia, China, Russia, France, South Korea, Germany, Japan).

I completely agree with this. In this day and age with the internet, it's impossible for things not to leak and be spoiled. Releasing so early in other countries has killed some of the anticipation for the film here in the states.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't get the Venom movie idea either. He basically has all of Spider-Man's powers so what would be so new on that front that would draw audiences in? I think he's a draw as a villain but make him an anti hero and he's just Spider-Man with an attitude problem.

Also his visual effects aren't going to cost any less than Spider-Man's. So Sony will spend 200 million on a movie that is sure to not make Spider-Man money. Why?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

But previous MCU films had international opening by a week. Two weeks is just too extreme. This whole idea of releasing films at different times is just stupid IMO. In today's day and age, they should just release the films at the exact same day in all major markets (US/Canada, UK/Ireland, Australia, China, Russia, France, South Korea, Germany, Japan).

I agree that it is extreme, but that extreme to knock 10, maybe 15 million off?

And while I really would prefer a worldwide release, one of the reasons it doesn't happen is because of key release days in certain country. I didn't even know there was as many holidays and Mondays off in other countries until I started following BO.

 

[marcvader]

There's a demand for a Venom movie?

From the Venom fan club community.

 

[marcvader]

So what are the most recent OW projections?

 

[Tony Stark]

I agree the first weekend in May is generally gold, which why we are seeing WB and Marvel in a pissing contest over the 2016 date. If this makes less than 100 million OW, it''l be due to lukewarm reception and nothing to do with the release date.I'm not sure how the movie is going to do box office wise, but I do feel it'll need a strong OW to outgross ASM as Godzilla and DOFP both have buzz and could really affect it's legs. Hell even Neighbors has a lot of positive buzz with critics giving glowing reviews. That might take some oF Spidey's money as well.

Agreed, my early predictions which I've stuck to were $130's but I was thinking that before a lot of the negative press started, and these less than stellar international numbers.

If this opens below 100M there's really no excuse, Sony and Avi Arad just blew it.

Personally I think people are confused by the marketing. What seemed to be a movie about Spider-man facing Electro, is now about Harry Osbourne and Oscorp and the Green Goblin (who looks awful IMO).

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

Less than stellar? Last I checked it was doing great.

But previous MCU films had international opening by a week. Two weeks is just too extreme. This whole idea of releasing films at different times is just stupid IMO. In today's day and age, they should just release the films at the exact same day in all major markets (US/Canada, UK/Ireland, Australia, China, Russia, France, South Korea, Germany, Japan).

Agreed.

It would've made more money too imo as people would be seeing it before all of the reviews started piling up and swaying people.

Plus spoilers wouldn't be leaked for your guys.

 

[Liam_H]

This whole opening up a couple of week earlier is no big deal IMO. Its just the norm now with studios having to work within their schedules, increasing the buzz here etc. Any money that may or may not be loss here is just an excuse.

 

[TommySyk]

With a Venom movie, I'd like them to have a director with a strong track record of directing horror. Having Kurtzman writing/directing gives me the biggest pause for concern.

Call me crazy, but I'd love to see James Wan direct the Venom spin-off.

 

[venom892]

Agreed, my early predictions which I've stuck to were $130's but I was thinking that before a lot of the negative press started, and these less than stellar international numbers.

If this opens below 100M there's really no excuse, Sony and Avi Arad just blew it.

Personally I think people are confused by the marketing. What seemed to be a movie about Spider-man facing Electro, is now about Harry Osbourne and Oscorp and the Green Goblin (who looks awful IMO).

I also think that in the GA's eyes this is looking like another SM3. I think Sony blew it's load too early and should have held off on showing off Rhino or GG. If they would have focused the campaign solely on Electro, who is played by a good actor in Jamie Foxx, it would have lessen that SM3 stigma of too many villains.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Rhino was fine for the opening but cramming in Electro along with Green Goblin does remind people of SM3.

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

I agree they shouldn't have done so much marketing and should've kept things for surprises. There was no reason to show the Octopus arms and Vulture wings in the trailers and they should've at least kept Rhino footage to themsevles

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Through two weekends, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has earned $132 million overseas. While it's hard to pinpoint exact numbers here, there's a sense that the superhero sequel isn't really doing better overall business than the first Amazing Spider-Man. That movie topped out at $490 million, which looks like a likely outcome for the sequel as well.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3830&p=.htm

It's been holding steady or decreasing overseas... some good numbers, but nothing great at the moment. Plus, it's the legs I'm really worried about.

 

[venom892]

To me showing GG is the equivalent of The Dark Knight trailers showing off Two Face. Sure people suspected Harvey would become Two Face, but people were hyped to see it happen in the actual movie.