The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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I disagree. I think the negative word of mouth prior to release hurt the opening, at the very least. It was a mistake to release this two weeks early internationally. Rotten Tomatoes is a relatively mainstream site. When the reviews are rolling in so far in advance of US audiences seeing the film and they're not great the domestic audience will hear about it.

I think it's reasonable to assume a shift in caring about reviews in general audience minds is happening. So it's feasible to think bad reviews and WoM will affect this film. I agree wholeheartedly that releasing an "iffy" sequel in advance of domestic audiences is a bad idea.

I know Marvel currently does that but they have so much positive momentum that it only helps domestic openings. Speaking of, are there ANY "rotten" MCU films?
 
Probably X-Men - over 230. But Godzilla should do well as well, 200M seems possible.

Godzilla's marketing campaign is decent, but will it translate to viewings is the thing.
 
Spidey will finish with 220 max. Would mean 15% down from ASM1.
 
But most of the reviews were mixed to positive before the last two days. The U.S. critics eviscerated it. The WOM from overseas was less than great, but not horrible.

The WOM was definitely a bit more positive, but it was far from good. Even some of the positive reviews that recently dropped (Forbes, for example) acknowledged that the critics have been less than positive about the film. Also, many of the positive reviews had some harsh criticisms.
 
I think it's reasonable to assume a shift in caring about reviews in general audience minds is happening. So it's feasible to think bad reviews and WoM will affect this film. I agree wholeheartedly that releasing an "iffy" sequel in advance of domestic audiences is a bad idea.

I know Marvel currently does that but they have so much positive momentum that it only helps domestic openings. Speaking of, are there ANY "rotten" MCU films?

Any gripes about an MCU film are pretty much countered by their entertainment factor. None of them have ever been "not fun."
 
Godzilla's marketing campaign is decent, but will it translate to viewings is the thing.

Reviews / WOM will decide IMHO... And Godzilla's campaign is excellent so far. Definitely better than Spidey's or X-Men's. :yay:
 
Sony should get someone onboard to handle this franchise rather then do it themselves or have Avi Arad do it, he seems quite clueless, and they already seem to be planning beyond webbs involvement so its probably not him

this franchise needs a kevin feige

They just need better writers. And trust them.
 
The issue is that you only get so many chances. Fool me twice and your franchise starts feeling the effects of the lack of quality.

I don't like saying much because I like to see the Friday numbers before truely analysing the situation. All of my points could be moot if the film explodes today and does 45mil (I don't think it will be you never know).
 
Any gripes about an MCU film are pretty much countered by their entertainment factor. None of them have ever been "not fun."

I wasn't having much fun at T: DW, but that was the only one so far for me.
 
Reviews / WOM will decide IMHO... And Godzilla's campaign is excellent so far. Definitely better than Spidey's or X-Men's. :yay:

I truly think Godzilla will have the strongest legs this summer (not looking for a pun but I'll take it). But Cap 2 will be hard to beat in that dept.

I feel strongly that ASM2 will be along the worst unfortunately.
 
The issue is that you only get so many chances. Fool me twice and your franchise starts feeling the effects of the lack of quality.

I don't like saying much because I like to see the Friday numbers before truely analysing the situation. All of my points could be moot if the film explodes today and does 45mil (I don't think it will be you never know).

Yes... I think we all need to hold off with our analysis for the moment. It's still early days.
 
I like how everyone is waiting with baited breath to see what I See Spidey's predictions are. It's like the stock market man.
 
If this can mimic IM3 then opening around $97M which isn't too bad all things considering. But if it acts like CA:TWS... then yeah bad stuff
 
I'm thinking 35-36mil today and a worse weekend multiplier than Winter Soldier. And yes that number includes Thursday night showings, nobody separates those numbers anymore.
 
I think those who thought ASM2 would do worse domesticly than first one will be proven right.
 
I think those who thought ASM2 would do worse domesticly than first one will be proven right.

So do I. The US is also one of the big markets Sony needs this to do well in, also. So, that isn't good. Looking more and more like this will make similar bank to the 1st one.
 
It'll be interesting to see what effect a relatively poor OW, and in turn domestic run, does to Sony's plans for Venom and a Sinister Six movie. I think Sony's locked into them and may be at the point where they can't turn back, but doing so might be the death knell to the ASM franchise. If ASM2 underperforms, how do you think Venom and Sinister Six will do? Venom's popularity peaked in the 90s, and they're basically bypassing the entire Symbiote Spidey arc. The Sinister Six is such a questionable property to make when it isn't going to feature Spider-Man. The Sinister Six was created with the sole purpose of killing Spider-Man. They do not have the type of storytelling flexibility as say the Thunderbolts or the Secret Six, where there are multiple stories to be told because their villainous goals aren't as one note. I know there were rumors that maybe Black Cat would be a member and would turn good throughout the movie and end up stopping their plans from the inside, which is a decent idea, but now it doesn't look like she's one of the six. None of the rumored members are characters who have had redemptive arcs and look like characters who you can root for (i.e. Sandman or Black Cat). I just don't see people turning out for a movie about six villains planning to kill Spider-Man.

I think Sony are now going to realize just how boxed in they are with just having Spider-Man as a property. They're trying to expand the universe, mimicking Marvel and DC, but there really isn't much expanding they can do. Fox has the benefit of the X-Men being a universe within a universe. Even with Goddard at the helm I just don't see Sinister Six or Venom for that matter being the successes that Sony thinks they'll be.

If one good thing comes of this it'll be that Arad gets his foot put in his mouth and shoved down his throat.
 
Maybe Sinister Six will be the retelling of ASM3 from their perspective. Hah
 
It'll be interesting to see what effect a relatively poor OW, and in turn domestic run, does to Sony's plans for Venom and a Sinister Six movie. I think Sony's locked into them and may be at the point where they can't turn back, but doing so might be the death knell to the ASM franchise. If ASM2 underperforms, how do you think Venom and Sinister Six will do? Venom's popularity peaked in the 90s, and they're basically bypassing the entire Symbiote Spidey arc. The Sinister Six is such a questionable property to make when it isn't going to feature Spider-Man. The Sinister Six was created with the sole purpose of killing Spider-Man. They do not have the type of storytelling flexibility as say the Thunderbolts or the Secret Six, where there are multiple stories to be told because their villainous goals aren't as one note. I know there were rumors that maybe Black Cat would be a member and would turn good throughout the movie and end up stopping their plans from the inside, which is a decent idea, but now it doesn't look like she's one of the six. None of the rumored members are characters who have had redemptive arcs and look like characters who you can root for (i.e. Sandman or Black Cat). I just don't see people turning out for a movie about six villains planning to kill Spider-Man.

I think Sony are now going to realize just how boxed in they are with just having Spider-Man as a property. They're trying to expand the universe, mimicking Marvel and DC, but there really isn't much expanding they can do. Fox has the benefit of the X-Men being a universe within a universe. Even with Goddard at the helm I just don't see Sinister Six or Venom for that matter being the successes that Sony thinks they'll be.

If one good thing comes of this it'll be that Arad gets his foot put in his mouth and shoved down his throat.

I'm liking the idea of BC being in the S6 movie more and more. If they establish her as a person infiltrating the criminal underworld in ASM3, S6 could be a suspenseful deep undercover movie. I really don't see how else they will draw non diehard fans to the movie, especially after how this one is opening.
 
I know Marvel currently does that but they have so much positive momentum that it only helps domestic openings. Speaking of, are there ANY "rotten" MCU films?

Not totally. The lowest one with the "All Critics" ratings is Thor:The Dark World (who still has a solid "Audience rating") and the lowest with "Audience ratings" is the Incredible Hulk. That said, both are still fresh though with "All Critics" and "Audience ratings", but both are rotten in "Top Critics".

Any gripes about an MCU film are pretty much countered by their entertainment factor. None of them have ever been "not fun."

I agree. There are some I love more than others, and I read people on sites who say something like "there have been only two MCU movies I consider good, the rest are crap" etc, but it doesn't matter.

They (including myself) are simply are a small sampling, individual likes/dislikes are just drops in the bucket to get what the overall perception and reception of the General population and overall, MCU movies are generally well received.
 
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