The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tymminator]

What gets me about this movie is the stuff I loved, I LOVED.
The stuff that bugged me was like .

I can't say I hated it, I hated certain parts, or the way they did things, I REALLY hated it. But the stuff I loved (Andrew and Emma mostly) I REALLY loved.

That said, I can't be shocked at whatever this movie pulls.
I want to see the cut TeeKay did, but I know that's not happening.

 

[BlackFox]

What gets me about this movie is the stuff I loved, I LOVED.
The stuff that bugged me was like .

I can't say I hated it, I hated certain parts, or the way they did things, I REALLY hated it. But the stuff I loved (Andrew and Emma mostly) I REALLY loved.

That said, I can't be shocked at whatever this movie pulls.
I want to see the cut TeeKay did, but I know that's not happening.

Yeah it does feel that way, almost like different parts were filmed by a different director and the two smushed together, one good scene follows a bad one.

Im sure this movie will still make good money though, people still luv Spidey, they might struggle with trying to sell the third one though, we shall see.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Based on thursday's numbers boxoffice mojo thinks the weekend gross will be In 90 Million range. It's defently possibly it will open lower than Winter Soldier did.

 

[GenUsername]

Spidey opening less than Cap.

I've finally seen it all.

 

[Tymminator]

Well, that's unexpected speaking for myself, but CA:TWS was a great movie that I thoroughly enjoyed from opening scene to credits, in my top 3 favorite MCU movies, so I can't feel to bad at that part at least.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Well, that's unexpected speaking for myself, but CA:TWS was a great movie that I thoroughly enjoyed from opening scene to credits, in my top 3 favorite MCU movies, so I can't feel to bad at that part at least.

I can understand Winter Soldier doing better than ASM2, but Spidey should definitely have a bigger opening weekend. More people were interested in the seconded Cap than the fifth Spider-Man.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Let's chill people, it's a good number but we've seen it before, "midnight" numbers don't mean much, a lot of movies have huge midnights numbers and end up burning off the demand on the opening day. TWS gets the Avengers boost that was expected and happened with Thor TDW & Iron Man 3, Spidey has kind of become the underdog, surprisingly.

It's still going to be somewhere between 90 & 100 million OW.

 

[Liam_H]

Midnight numbers still give you an idea of where it will end up. Sure the range is a bit large at the moment but still.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

An idea but a general one. Reminds me of those movies like Pacific Rim who opened with a big midnight number relative to what was expecting them and yet ending up having a disappointing OW.

 

[TalismanRing]

These aren't even really Midnight #s anymore. They're half days now. ASM2 previews started at 7pm - even earlier than the 8pm for CA2, Thor2, IronMan3, MOS - in over 3,000 theaters on multiple screens.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Pretty much, that's just what they're called. At the minimum, TASM2 will hit 85 M OW, I doubt it goes lower than that, MTC has it at 102 M OW, RS around 80 or something I think, and it's apparently the rule that in that situation, the movie should open bigger than the MTC figure.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The performance of this film is a big entertainment story so people are going to talk about it...a lot. The people in the know aren't jumping the gun and are using "if," as well they should.

The late night numbers are lower than Winter Soldier's, that's a fact and that can be talked about.

 

[Nemeres]

I didn't think Iron Man 2 was much fun either.

I think it started out being lots of fun, then after the racetrack fight BAM, nosedive from which it never recovers.

 

[Tobias]

If TASM2 performs about like TASM I think it says even superhero action films need a good script. Look at what happened with MOS.

If there is goodwill about a franchise as there is with Spiderman maybe one poorly scripted film they can get away with but after that the goodwill starts to fade.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

On BO boards:

Multipliers for May releases:

TA : 207.44/18.7 = 11.09
IM3 : 174.14/15.6 = 11.16
Would give TASM2 96.5 - 97m.

 

[Eddie]

It'll be interesting to see what effect a relatively poor OW, and in turn domestic run, does to Sony's plans for Venom and a Sinister Six movie. I think Sony's locked into them and may be at the point where they can't turn back, but doing so might be the death knell to the ASM franchise. If ASM2 underperforms, how do you think Venom and Sinister Six will do? Venom's popularity peaked in the 90s, and they're basically bypassing the entire Symbiote Spidey arc. The Sinister Six is such a questionable property to make when it isn't going to feature Spider-Man. The Sinister Six was created with the sole purpose of killing Spider-Man. They do not have the type of storytelling flexibility as say the Thunderbolts or the Secret Six, where there are multiple stories to be told because their villainous goals aren't as one note. I know there were rumors that maybe Black Cat would be a member and would turn good throughout the movie and end up stopping their plans from the inside, which is a decent idea, but now it doesn't look like she's one of the six. None of the rumored members are characters who have had redemptive arcs and look like characters who you can root for (i.e. Sandman or Black Cat). I just don't see people turning out for a movie about six villains planning to kill Spider-Man.

I think Sony are now going to realize just how boxed in they are with just having Spider-Man as a property. They're trying to expand the universe, mimicking Marvel and DC, but there really isn't much expanding they can do. Fox has the benefit of the X-Men being a universe within a universe. Even with Goddard at the helm I just don't see Sinister Six or Venom for that matter being the successes that Sony thinks they'll be.

If one good thing comes of this it'll be that Arad gets his foot put in his mouth and shoved down his throat.

My guess is that Harry is supposed to be the lead in the Sinister Six film, especially since the current rumor is that SS is releasing before TASM3. That being said, I also think Sony will start rethinking that Sinister Six movie.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The performance of this film is a big entertainment story so people are going to talk about it...a lot. The people in the know aren't jumping the gun and are using "if," as well they should.

The late night numbers are lower than Winter Soldier's, that's a fact and that can be talked about.

I haven't been this curious since MOS, and that was far more personal.

On BO boards:

Multipliers for May releases:

TA : 207.44/18.7 = 11.09
IM3 : 174.14/15.6 = 11.16
Would give TASM2 96.5 - 97m.

Those were extremely hyped though.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I haven't been this curious since MOS, and that was far more personal.

I find it shocking that MOS will outperform a Spider-Man movie... and one with such a prime release date.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I find it shocking that MOS will outperform a Spider-Man movie... and one with such a prime release date.

Domestically? Yeah, but I still think TASM 2 would have to die insanely quickly internationally for that to happen. I guess it is possible, but I doubt it.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Domestically maybe, who knows, MOS had a HUGE HUGE buzz to it considering it was the new reboot of a Superman movie and the trailers were really amazing, also had dat Nolan stamp of approval, which led so many average joes to believe that he directed it.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Domestically? Yeah, but I still think TASM 2 would have to die insanely quickly internationally for that to happen. I guess it is possible, but I doubt it.

Even with the domestic opening weekend alone.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Domestically maybe, who knows, MOS had a HUGE HUGE buzz to it considering it was the new reboot of a Superman movie and the trailers were really amazing, also had dat Nolan stamp of approval, which led so many average joes to believe that he directed it.

If TASM 2 comes in under $100m for this weekend, it will not be getting anywhere close to MOS domestically. Its multiplier won't stand a chance with Neighbors, Godzilla, DoFP and Maleficent all in a row.

 

[Tobias]

I find it shocking that MOS will outperform a Spider-Man movie... and one with such a prime release date.

MOS outperformed ASM domestically but ASM made WW almost 100 million more. Even if it performs like ASM it will easily outperform MOS.

Worry is can TASM2 do well enough to get close to the BO breakeven point? Then with DVD sales and TV rights it should turn a nice profit for SONY.

 

[Tymminator]

Domestically? Yeah, but I still think TASM 2 would have to die insanely quickly internationally for that to happen. I guess it is possible, but I doubt it.

Yeah, I can't see that happening unless it really underperforms in China.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

Hopefully this'll knock some sense into Sony and they'll churn out a better film next go around, but I won't hold my breath. I don't think I've ever been so unhyped lol