The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Love or hate MOS it's marketing campaign was great but The Amazing Spider-Man 2's was not. Throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks was a crappy plan. It's still going to open big because it's Spidey but the days of record breaking Spidey opening weekends are over.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Is under $100m considered "big money" in this situation?

 

[JKKS085]

8,7 millions for Thursday with this amount of screens and 7pm showings ! That's terribly low. Now the movie would be lucky to hit 90m ow (my guess would be something around 86/88 millions tops).

I can't believe how Spider-Man has plummeted has a franchise so far from where it used to be. Spider-Man 3 opened to 151 millions back in 2007 (that would be 174 millions adjusted for 3D and ticket price inflation). That means that in the span of two films, the franchise lost 50% of its ow attendance ! That's insane.

No matter the spin, Sony will wake up on monday to the sound of extremely poor economic prospects when it comes to the future of this franchise.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

Is under $100m considered "big money" in this situation?

Considering the budget of the film, I would think no lol

 

[Tim_Riggins]

There was not yet a MCU universe as there is today when the Raimi Spideys were out, it's useless making comparisons and whatnot.

No need being so doom & gloom, it's ridiculous. @Joe: lots of people love the movie, it's not because you didn't like it that you have to pull that BS "they'll learn to make a better movie next time".

The movie will make bank, not as much as they thought they would, but a Spidey movie will bring them money before it even hits theaters, it's not only about BO revenues (and yes, I know they don't own the merchandise), Spider-Man is Sony's most lucrative franchise, and will keep on being this way.

90 million for TASM2 would be very good, and talking about budget in that case is useless, Spidey is an underdog with the MCU now, it's no longer a heavy hitter like Iron Man & such, so yeah 90 million would be good, more, and it's the cherry on top of the cake.

Don't say that expectations were higher, the movie has always been tracking around 95 million.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

MOS outperformed ASM domestically but ASM made WW almost 100 million more. Even if it performs like ASM it will easily outperform MOS.

Worry is can TASM2 do well enough to get close to the BO breakeven point? Then with DVD sales and TV rights it should turn a nice profit for SONY.

MOS was made to be the starting point of the DC Universe on the silver screen and it was successful. MOS was not supposed to outperform nothing if not Superman Returns and it did it by a good margin. ASM and ASM2 have to fight the ghosts of Raimi's movies.
Even the future of the franchise is much more difficult. After MOS you can do Batman/Superman and then the JLA and "rise" the interest. After a disappointing ASM2 what can you do? A Sinister Six Spin-off? Please...

 

[Spider-Fan]

There was not yet a MCU universe as there is today when the Raimi Spideys were out, it's useless making comparisons and whatnot.

No need being so doom & gloom, it's ridiculous. @Joe: lots of people love the movie, it's not because you didn't like it that you have to pull that BS "they'll learn to make a better movie next time".

The movie will make bank, not as much as they thought they would, but a Spidey movie will bring them money before it even hits theaters, it's not only about BO revenues (and yes, I know they don't own the merchandise), Spider-Man is Sony's most lucrative franchise, and will keep on being this way.

The MCU existing doesn't mean Spidey CAN'T make large bank again. Tell that to Batman who crossed 1 billion after the MCU existed. Spidey has the name, just not the interest anymore that he once had. Due to quality. Not the MCU.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There was not yet a MCU universe as there is today when the Raimi Spideys were out, it's useless making comparisons and whatnot.

No need being so doom & gloom, it's ridiculous. @Joe: lots of people love the movie, it's not because you didn't like it that you have to pull that BS "they'll learn to make a better movie next time".

The movie will make bank, not as much as they thought they would, but a Spidey movie will bring them money before it even hits theaters, it's not only about BO revenues (and yes, I know they don't own the merchandise), Spider-Man is Sony's most lucrative franchise, and will keep on being this way.

90 million for TASM2 would be very good, and talking about budget in that case is useless, Spidey is an underdog with the MCU now, it's no longer a heavy hitter like Iron Man & such, so yeah 90 million would be good, more, and it's the cherry on top of the cake.

Don't say that expectations were higher, the movie has always been tracking around 95 million.

IF TASM 2 makes less then TASM it is horrible. Downright inexcusable. You can't spin it any other way. It will not only lose money, but show that the audiences are getting more and more apathetic to Sony's Spider-Man. You spend that much on marketing and the audience cares less? Nope, no spinning that.

The MCU existing doesn't mean Spidey CAN'T make large bank again. Tell that to Batman who crossed 1 billion after the MCU existed. Spidey has the name, just not the interest anymore that he once had. Due to quality. Not the MCU.

Without 3D no less.

 

[Eddie]

There was not yet a MCU universe as there is today when the Raimi Spideys were out, it's useless making comparisons and whatnot.

No need being so doom & gloom, it's ridiculous. @Joe: lots of people love the movie, it's not because you didn't like it that you have to pull that BS "they'll learn to make a better movie next time".

The movie will make bank, not as much as they thought they would, but a Spidey movie will bring them money before it even hits theaters, it's not only about BO revenues (and yes, I know they don't own the merchandise), Spider-Man is Sony's most lucrative franchise, and will keep on being this way.

90 million for TASM2 would be very good, and talking about budget in that case is useless, Spidey is an underdog with the MCU now, it's no longer a heavy hitter like Iron Man & such, so yeah 90 million would be good, more, and it's the cherry on top of the cake.

Don't say that expectations were higher, the movie has always been tracking around 95 million.

You don't spend $400 million (with marketing) on a movie and expect it to make $90 million on the domestic opening. And I have no idea how this movie is making them money before it even comes out without merchandise revenue. That makes no sense. Does Garfield's costume print money or something?

 

[Tim_Riggins]

It won't make less than TASM WW, mark my words, hell, even bookmark it.

China is easily going to contribute 30 to 40 million more than TASM did when facing TDKR, Asia aside from Japan is breaking records right now, it will make up for the somewhat disappointing performance in a few countries.

@Eddie: it's not like the movie was ever expected to open at 150 M OW like I said.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Is under $100m considered "big money" in this situation?

If it opens under 100mil I'd say it's big money but not enough for a Spider-Man film that cost over 400mil to make and market. And it's a Spider-Man film that will probably drop like a stone.

 

[Liam_H]

Japan is breaking records, are you confusing this with Frozen? Last I heard this was underperforming compared to the first one.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

@Tim_Riggins
You can almost always make a better movie. We might like the next one if they step their game up while you might love it more than this one. Like I said before, your opinion that this film is amazing is in the minority. It's fine, but it's the unpopular opinion.

 

[Suzanne78]

IF TASM 2 makes less then TASM it is horrible. Downright inexcusable. You can't spin it any other way. It will not only lose money, but show that the audiences are getting more and more apathetic to Sony's Spider-Man. You spend that much on marketing and the audience cares less? Nope, no spinning that.


Without 3D no less.

Right. If the marketing budget is to be believed (upwards of $170mil.) then an OW with this much erosion from the former movies is showing a declining trend in the Spider-Man brand. I don't know if we're doing the same equations of doubling (or near doubling) the production costs + marketing for these movies; you have to assume that there will be some offset with product placements, tax incentives, etc.

However, the declining receipts should be a warning flag for Sony that they need to take care (or rest) the Spidey brand for a few more years until they figure out the best way to develop it.

 

[Suzanne78]

Japan is breaking records, are you confusing this with Frozen? Last I heard this was underperforming compared to the first one.

I thought it opened fourth. I believe it broke the OD record in Hong Kong, possibly the Philippines.

 

[Tobias]

Japan is breaking records? Are you confusing this with Frozen?

He actually said aside from Japan it breaking records in Asia.

Franchises have their ups and downs. Look at the 90s Batman films and the massive success that followed that with Nolan's films.

I think that SONY is making these too quickly. I thought they had to do one every 5 years.

If the make them less frequently they can give them more of an event feel.

There is so much content out there at once that it is a different world from the that in which the Raimi films were made.i

 

[JKKS085]

It won't make less than TASM WW, mark my words, hell, even bookmark it.

China is easily going to contribute 30 to 40 million more than TASM did when facing TDKR, Asia aside from Japan is breaking records right now, it will make up for the somewhat disappointing performance in a few countries.

Yeah but will it make up for the extra 30 millions spent on the pb and the the extra 90 millions (or so) spent for advertising compared to TASM. That's the big question.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

I said, aside from Japan, please do read. It broke OD record in HK & Phillippines, yeah.

For the budget, these are just numbers thrown around, are we even sure that those are the real costs? These are reported budgets, but it wouldn't be the first time.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It won't make less than TASM WW, mark my words, hell, even bookmark it.

China is easily going to contribute 30 to 40 million more than TASM did when facing TDKR, Asia aside from Japan is breaking records right now, it will make up for the somewhat disappointing performance in a few countries.

@Eddie: it's not like the movie was ever expected to open at 150 M OW like I said.

This sounds like damage control. But lets see what happens in China and domestically.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

This is pretty much the worst case scenario this movie could have believebly been in. It's so odd that almost everything surrounding the movie has gone wrong, like pretty much the polar opposite of what most on here would've guessed a month ago. This is likely going to lead to some sort of change in some way to what was originally planned. Question is how drastic of a decision will it wind up being?

 

[Eddie]

He actually said aside from Japan it breaking records in Asia.

Franchises have their ups and downs. Look at the 90s Batman films and the massive success that followed that with Nolan's films.

I think that SONY is making these too quickly. I thought they had to do one every 5 years.

If the make them less frequently they can give them more of an event feel.

There is so much content out there at once that it is a different world from the that in which the Raimi films were made.i

Sony want's annual Spidey films, though. They weren't planning on TASM2 to set up a franchise with a new film every several years. The plan was for this to set up annual Spidey films, starting with either TASM3 or Sinister Six (depending on if the rumor about SS going into production in January is true).

Ultimately, I think that idiotic annual Spidey film plan will be the downfall of this particular take on the franchise.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

Yeah, the last thing this franchise needs is to be labelled the "Call of Duty of film" lol

 

[JOE]

Godzilla first reactions poured in on Twitter a little while ago. It's almost 100% positive feedback from what I've seen. I'm so conflicted, I don't want it to take away from Spidey even though it will... However, I want Godzilla BACK and it sounds like he finally is!

 

[Joe_Kickass]

Godzilla first reactions poured in on Twitter a little while ago. It's almost 100% positive feedback from what I've seen. I'm so conflicted, I don't want it to take away from Spidey even though it will... However, I want Godzilla BACK and it sounds like he finally is!

Hopefully it'll wipe the godawful taste of Godizilla 2000 out of our mouthes lol

 

[Liam_H]

Spidey might have to worry about Neighbors first.