The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Mr. Dent]

I wish we could get merchandising sales numbers between Cap and Spidey. That would say a lot about whose more popular now. I think Iron Man definitely outsells Spidey merchandising now at the very least. Even if Cap is just on par with Spidey now it would be a big slap in the face to Spidey.

 

[Liam_H]

I don't see this film having a 2.5 multiplier. It has too much competition coming out this weekend and the weeks coming up. It will drop 40-45% this weekend and might even lose to Neighbors. Then you can kiss it goodbye the following week with Godzilla coming out. Spider Man 2 maybe gets to 155-160m this weekend and that's if it has a good week. I predict it will max out around 212-215 domestic

Closer to 60% actually.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I don't see this film having a 2.5 multiplier. It has too much competition coming out this weekend and the weeks coming up. It will drop 40-45% this weekend and might even lose to Neighbors. Then you can kiss it goodbye the following week with Godzilla coming out. Spider Man 2 maybe gets to 155-160m this weekend and that's if it has a good week. I predict it will max out around 212-215 domestic

I agree with your premise but the numbers you use are off. Only dropping 40-45% this week would be an incredible hold. imo the movie will drop 56% at minimum, probably closer to 60%. That said, I don't think Neighbors will be it unless it ends up pulling in <$40m which would be astounding to me, although I don't know too much about its tracking numbers or how Seth Rogan's past films have done.

 

[Tobias]

Closer to 60% actually.

If you are right and with following weeks' competition the film might not get to 220 domestic. That is hard to see happening. Can't see it doing less domestically than MOS.

 

[Mr. Dent]

its tracking well from what I have seen. I gave ASM2 a 40-45% drop trying to be nice. I didnt think it would drop as much as you are saying but if it does then it wont last long with what movies are coming out.

These CBM movies never have that nice of a drop after their first weekend, they're too front loaded. Even Cap 2, which had way better WOM than this and only had Rio 2 as competition in its second weekend dropped 56.6%.

 

[Mr. Dent]

If you are right and with following weeks' competition the film might not get to 220 domestic. That is hard to see happening. Can't see it doing less domestically than MOS.

Uh this movie is locked to do less than Man of Steel...by a lot. Man of Steel made $291m domestically and had a far bigger opening weekend. ($116.6m)

imo this movie will "only" make around $215-220m. I think a sub $220m run is very likely right now.

 

[TalismanRing]

If you are right and with following weeks' competition the film might not get to 220 domestic. That is hard to see happening. Can't see it doing less domestically than MOS.

Why not? It opened much lower than MOS. The first one made less than MOS and this one opened lower than ASM1. There's a lot of competition in May and there aren't any summer school days to prop up the box office between huge w/e drops. TWS had two sub 40% w/e drops which is why it will pass $250m and maybe hit $260-65m. I can't see ASM2 having that even with a larger family audience since it has Godzilla, DOFP and Magnificent coming up. It will do better than MOS WW though.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Hell, if you give TASM2 Man of Steel's multiplier (which is being generous since it's 2.49) the movie will only come out making around $228m.

 

[TalismanRing]

These CBM movies never have that nice of a drop after their first weekend, they're too front loaded. Even Cap 2, which had way better WOM than this and only had Rio 2 as competition in its second weekend dropped 56.6%.

Agreed.

With Thursday "previews" starting earlier and getting bigger second w/e drops will only get bigger. ASM2 had $8.7m on Thur (CA2 was $10.2m) so even a very good 2nd w/e drop would be over 50%. Expect closer to 60%.

 

[Tobias]

Agreed.

With Thursday "previews" starting earlier and getting bigger second w/e drops will only get bigger. ASM2 had $8.7m on Thur (CA2 was $10.2m) so even a very good 2nd w/e drop would be over 50%. Expect closer to 60%.

What is Neighbors tracking at?

 

[Marvin]

@Marvin

If that's hardly the only way to compare the movies, tell me how you'd do it when one opened on a tuesday and the other on friday ? That's how BO analysts do it all the times. That's the reason why we got 7 days projections for TASM 2 out of the week end to make a more accurate comparison with its predecessor. If it is not exactly carved into stone at this point there is no way for TASM 2 to outgross TASM's domestic take either after a week or at the end of its run. It's just maths really.

I said it's hardly the only way. AS for the math, there were plenty of predictions about what cap2 would open with that didn't pan out. The next seven days let alone ASM's domestic run can range from predictable to surprising. What happens if Godzilla bombs or resonates, Xmen(bryan singer...), neighbours..and that's just the competition side of things. Did the math tell us that Cap 2 would flirt with it's current WW total based on 3 days, did the math spell out what MOS would do given it's opening. What does the math say about ASM2 given it's pretty much opening with Cap's numbers. Safe to say there are a good amount of variables that influence all sorts of things. I for one see no harm in seeing how it goes before making any big proclamations is all.

I don't know why we keep coming to the MCU to justify Spider-Man current lack of appeal in theaters.

We do?
All I said was that the mcu solos are more popular than they once were due to what is going on over there. I then compared that to what spiderman has going on and concluded in; the fact that it's an open debate which is more popular in cinema going into the sequels. If I did this for Ironman it would be even more evident where I'm coming from. As for why spiderman is where he is, you probably have the right idea. Ergo why simply saying "the sequel to his asm is obviously more popular" than the other guys isn't so simple.

Frankly I don't care what you think is "bueno" or not. The fact is that until very recently no one, including Sony, thought, forecast or predicted that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 would open #2 behind CATWS. These are expectations ! TASM 2 came under CATWS above. This is something you cannot spin. A month ago or so THR predicted that TASM2 would be making 325 millions domestically (and several other leading medias in the field had predictions well above 300 millions as well). It'll fall at least 100 millions short of that mark. If that isn't underperforming I don't know what is.

Here and here where early signs that 'analysts' saw this as a possibility as it pertains to the state of the spiderman brand. Ray asserting that ASM2's domestic would land under TWS says plenty. You pointing to people that seemingly guessed wrong then pointing to sony's supposedly putting out a forecast(never knew they did that) about their opening number doesn't change that some people saw this coming. As for what's 'bueno' around here, people and their expectations are no way to properly gauge if something a success. Especially with all the agenda that floats around these days. Just look at the forecasts for BvS.

And finally, it's pretty easy to say "yes, of course any MCU character is now more popular than Spider-Man" afterwards. The better thing would have been to anticipate that and state this opinion beforhand and not after everything is pretty much said and done to somehow justify a box office dissapointment. You can't go wrong by predicting things after they happened.

No, but you can formulate an analysis based on what you see spelled out for you after the fact. In fact, it's only then when things are made even more clear to you. Thus my point. I'm not talking about predicting anything I'm talking about looking at how things played out.

Do you think it more prudent to predict the popularity of TF4 now or after it actually happens and we know.

 

[TalismanRing]

What is Neighbors tracking at?

Last I looked $30-35m but as the first male skewing comedy in awhile I wouldn't be surprised with $40m.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Overall, i think Thor 2 is probably a good movie to track this by. Ignoring the difference in release dates, which is kind of similar if you look at Thor 2 as opening at the beginning of the winter season before kids get out for Thanksgiving and winter break and TASM2 opening at the beginning of the summer season, Thor 2 had similar mixed reviews on RT and Metacritic, CinemaScore, and audience rating on RT, and it's opening weekend numbers aren't that far off from TASM2.

Thor 2 had the second weekend more or less to itself, similar to what TASM2 will with the exception of Neighbors, and then had Hunger Games, Frozen, and The Hobbit all open subsequently after its second weekend similar to what TASM2 will have to deal with with Godzilla and DOFP. Thor 2 dropped 57.3% its second weekend, and 61% its third weekend when Hunger Games opened, and ended up with a 2.4 flat multiplier.

I think TASM2 will follow a similar trajectory to all of that with maybe a bit of a harsher drop its second weekend in the 58-60% range. If that were to happen TASM2 would end up at just around +/- $220m, so that's my prediction, and I'm leaning more in the direction it will make a little less than $220m rather a little more.

 

[Marvin]

Overall, i think Thor 2 is probably a good movie to track this by. Ignoring the difference in release dates, which is kind of similar if you look at Thor 2 as opening at the beginning of the winter season before kids get out for Thanksgiving and winter break and TASM2 opening at the beginning of the summer season, Thor 2 had similar mixed reviews on RT and Metacritic, CinemaScore, and audience rating on RT, and it's opening weekend numbers aren't that far off from TASM2.

Thor 2 had the second weekend more or less to itself, similar to what TASM2 will with the exception of Neighbors, and then had Hunger Games, Frozen, and The Hobbit all open subsequently after its second weekend similar to what TASM2 will have to deal with with Godzilla and DOFP. Thor 2 dropped 57.3% its second weekend, and 61% its third weekend when Hunger Games opened, and ended up with a 2.4 flat multiplier.

I think TASM2 will follow a similar trajectory to all of that with maybe a bit of a harsher drop its second weekend in the 58-60% range. If that were to happen TASM2 would end up at just around +/- $220m, so that's my prediction, and I'm leaning more in the direction it will make a little less than $220m rather a little more.

That's a fair comparison. Domestically anyways.

 

[Eddie]

Sony picked a bad month for it to be released. If it comes out Mid July then it has a couple of weeks that it can contend. July 18th it probably beats Jupiter Ascending and then it has the following with against Hercules. It might have had better legs up until GotG gets released. coming out in May was a death sentence

That's apologist nonsense if I've ever heard it. First week of May is one of the best release dates a film can have, arguably the best.

Anyway, someone asked about merchandising earlier (specifically, whether or not Spidey merch was still a top seller). I can't find anything breaking down which particular properties are making them the most money, but info from last year indicates that Marvel licensing is contributing billions to Disney. This is anecdotal, but in my area Spider-Man is still probably the single Marvel character with the most merch. Iron Man is certainly up there, but there's an awful lot of ASM2, Ultimate Spider-Man, and general Spidey stuff everywhere from Wal-Mart to Dollar Tree to, currently, McDonalds. Even without the movies being as popular as the MCU films, Spidey still retains plenty of relevance thanks to a popular cartoon, multiple ongoing comics, and more video games than any of the MCU Avengers.

 

[Tobias]

Uh this movie is locked to do less than Man of Steel...by a lot. Man of Steel made $291m domestically and had a far bigger opening weekend. ($116.6m)

imo this movie will "only" make around $215-220m. I think a sub $220m run is very likely right now.

Oops. I meant SR which did 201 domestic.

 

[Golgo-13]

If Godzilla de-thrones this next weekend (16th), then Sony will really take notice.

 

[Picard Sisko]

I'm still questioning how long sony will be able to go on with this franchise before it is no longer profitable enough to keep them in business. They better cut down on the marketing for TASM3.

 

[Tobias]

If Godzilla de-thrones this next weekend (16th), then Sony will really take notice.

It'll be the 3rd weekend for TASM2. its a given Godzilla will dethrone. Even if the TASM2 drops are a great (just) 45% each weekend.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

If Godzilla de-thrones this next weekend (16th), then Sony will really take notice.

No Spidey movie has stayed at the top spot for more than two weeks and with the buzz Godzilla is generating... I don't think Sony would be too shocked.

 

[Marvin]

No Spidey movie has stayed at the top spot for more than two weeks and with the buzz Godzilla is generating... I don't think Sony would be too shocked.

Unlike TWS.
Times have changedt:

 

[Golgo-13]

I'm still questioning how long sony will be able to go on with this franchise before it is no longer profitable enough to keep them in business. They better cut down on the marketing for TASM3.

They really over-marketed this movie. I mean, they gave us the entire Rhino sequence in tv spots and trailers...

A character like Spider-Man is pretty much guaranteed to draw a big box-office with just basic marketing.

No Spidey movie has stayed at the top spot for more than two weeks and with the buzz Godzilla is generating... I don't think Sony would be too shocked.

The difference being that every other Spidey flick, ASM1 excluded has made well over 150 million by the third week. ASM2 is lagging&#8230;.

 

[TalismanRing]

Oops. I meant SR which did 201 domestic.

With inflation and 3D it will pass it but it doesn't look to sell as many tickets as SR.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

The difference being that every other Spidey flick, ASM1 excluded has made over well 150 million by the third week. ASM2 is lagging….

That's very true... but still, what can they do.

 

[Picard Sisko]

They really over-marketed this movie. I mean, they gave us the entire Rhino sequence in tv spots and trailers...

Sony should spend much less on marketing for TASM3 and perhaps keep the plot simple, that way they don't spend so much money on effects for 3-4 different villains.