The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Tobias]

What number would be good for Monday?

 

[TalismanRing]

From the discussion in Director's Cut there seems to have been quite a bit of money wasted on the production side as well. There are always edits but there shouldn't be that much filmed stuff that's changed mid production or cut out of the film. That's just poor planning.

 

[Raiden]

I'm still questioning how long sony will be able to go on with this franchise before it is no longer profitable enough to keep them in business. They better cut down on the marketing for TASM3.

I don't see Sony ever giving up Spider-Man, unless they are forced to sell their film division Columbia Pictures due to financial losses suffered by Sony, and since they won't be able to sell the movie rights of Spider-Man I doubt Columbia Pictures would be attractive to buyers with the exception of the Bond franchise. I think Sony will activate the Doomsday device (merging Spider-Man with MCU) before they'd concede defeat.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Sony should spend much less on marketing for TASM3 and perhaps keep the plot simple, that way they don't spend so much money on effects for 3-4 different villains.

Sony should spend more time on TASM3 and quit trying to force spinoffs, at least until Spidey gets back on his feet.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Sony should spend more time on TASM3 and quit trying to force spinoffs, at least until Spidey gets back on his feet.

Sony is stuck in a weird situation where if they wait any longer to make TASM3, they will suffer great financial losses. But if they made it by 2016 as planned, it is going to be rushed. It's a lose/lose situation for them. That's why they want to make sure they can pump out at least one Spider-Man film per year, but it looks like that isn't really going to help them all that much considering the declining box office.

 

[Donut]

How come we dont have a list of what movie made more then the other yet ? Is Sony ashamed & paying off the sites ?

 

[Eddie]

How come we dont have a list of what movie made more then the other yet ? Is Sony ashamed & paying off the sites ?

...

No. No they are not. I've seen plenty of sites post BO numbers. Here you go:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/

ASM2's actual number came in just a bit under that $92 million estimate.

 

[TalismanRing]

How come we dont have a list of what movie made more then the other yet ? Is Sony ashamed & paying off the sites ?

Actuals are already out. ASM2 made $91.6m. The only Spiderman films to make less Fri-Sun opened on Tues & Wed.

http://boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=spiderman.htm

 

[Donut]

But I want to see who made more. Sites like ComingSoon.net on Mondays normally shows what made more then the other. Not how much this made

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Some online outlets have been suspiciously kind. This has without a doubt been a disappointing debut.

But it's the legs that will ultimately tell the tale.

Also, what do you guys think will be the first movie to debut over $100 million this year?

 

[Eddie]

The link from above will take you to a site that will tell you box office numbers for, get this, all of the weekends films! From there, click the start/windows button on the bottom left corner of your computer screen. Find a thing called "calculator". You can subtract the- hold on a sec. Oh crap! I just got a check from Sony! Uh, sorry. I'm afraid I can't help.

 

[TalismanRing]

Some online outlets have been suspiciously kind. This has without a doubt been a disappointing debut.

But it's the legs that will ultimately tell the tale.

Also, what do you guys think will be the first movie to debut over $100 million this year?

DOFP might do it over the 4 day w/e. If not that then Transformers 4.

 

[Marvin]

Sony should spend more time on TASM3 and quit trying to force spinoffs, at least until Spidey gets back on his feet.

That would be like asking marvel studios to not expand after IM2.
The promise of of Spidey 2 or a TDK(R), isn't the same as the promise of Avengers. Especially with the state of the brand.

 

[Picard Sisko]

The thing is that now that we have the Avengers, I actually appreciate Iron Man 2 a lot more. It's all about the payoff at this point, and I really hope that it's worth it.

 

[Marvin]

DOFP might do it over the 4 day w/e. If not that then Transformers 4.

Xmen numbers have traditionally been all over, it's pretty hard to guess. But this one holds alot of cards in it's favor. The downside being just how run away a hit Godzilla ends up being(wom is sounding really strong).

We've never seen a TF film with traditional 3 day numbers. Who knows what they would have done back in the trilogy. Either way this one is hard to guess as well. It could be anywhere from 90 to 140. Over 100 is a safe bet.

 

[Picard Sisko]

I wonder how DOFP will do in the box office. I've only seen a few promotions for the movie and now with the whole Bryan Singer controversy, I feel like this movie has yet another disadvantage.

 

[TalismanRing]

Yeah, I meant it might do it in 3 days over the 4 day w/e since Monday will buffer it's Sunday.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

That would be like asking marvel studios to not expand after IM2.

Iron Man 2 was better received. There were some complaints, but not enough to warrant a change in course.

Iron Man 2 had 73% on Rotten Tomatoes, had a $128 million domestic opening weekend, grossed over $312 million domestically (just short of IM1), and outgrossed Iron Man 1 worldwide.

Also, The Avengers as an end-game had more to offer than the Sinister Six.

 

[Marvin]

They(Xmen/Fox) need to really get behind their star power. It's like their biggest advantage this time more than ever.

 

[TalismanRing]

I wonder how DOFP will do in the box office. I've only seen a few promotions for the movie and now with the whole Bryan Singer controversy, I feel like this movie has yet another disadvantage.

The Singer controversy has so far been largely web based. I haven't seen much from mainstream media. If it was an alleged rape of a 17 yr old girl it would be all over ET, the evening news and shows like The View.

Flixter/RT and Facebook #s seem to be strong as well as Youtube views and IMDB ranking so there's buzz. I haven't heard anyone discuss it though offline so I'm not sure about mainstream interest and I haven't seen tracking for it yet.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

If you are right and with following weeks' competition the film might not get to 220 domestic. That is hard to see happening. Can't see it doing less domestically than MOS.

Psycho talk, as usual.

 

[Marvin]

Iron Man 2 was better received. There were some complaints, but not enough to warrant a change in course.

Iron Man 2 had 73% on Rotten Tomatoes, had a $128 million domestic opening weekend, grossed over $312 million domestically (just short of IM1), and outgrossed Iron Man 1 worldwide.

My point wasn't about the films quality or how well it was received. Rather that the studio could have made a straight sequel and focused on that(going forward) or the studio could have expanded into their full arsenal of novelty and 'universe' and such, and reaped the rewards.

Why would sony choose the former over the latter?

 

[Picard Sisko]

This just in... based on box office performance, Sony is announcing yet another Spider-Man reboot.

 

[TalismanRing]

My point wasn't about the films quality or how well it was received. Rather that the studio could have made a straight sequel and focused on that(going forward) or the studio could have expanded into their full arsenal of novelty and 'universe' and such, and reaped the rewards.

Why would sony choose the former over the latter?

By the time Iron Man II came out they already cast and/or started filming Thor and Cap. The plan was already in effect after the success of Iron Man I.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

My point wasn't about the films quality or how well it was received. Rather that the studio could have made a straight sequel and focused on that(going forward) or the studio could have expanded into their full arsenal of novelty and 'universe' and such, and reaped the rewards.

Why would sony choose the former over the latter?

Because diminishing returns for the main Spider-Man franchise makes the outlook for the spin-offs being financially viable look bleak. Spider-Man has been becoming less and less profitable since 2001, and even moreso since SM3. That was not happening with Iron Man.

It is also a different situation with regards to the actual spin-offs. The Avengers was a superhero teamup with Iron Man himself being a central (and arguably the main) character. Even if The Avengers didn't take off, the downside would have been essentially another Iron Man sequel. Sony isn't making a superhero teamup starring Spider-Man, because it doesn't have other heroes. It is making separate films starring Spider-Man supporting characters with little or no involvement of Spider-Man himself. It isn't the same thing. If Marvel was planning on making Justin Hammer: The Movie and Iron Man 2 disappointed critically and financially, I'm sure they would change their mind.

Basically the two situations are not in any way identical.