The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[jmc]

I did some Google searching. And apparently this happened around 2011:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/07/09/spider-man-saves-the-day-but-not-for-sony.aspx



OK, now this is not my area of expertise but here is what I think this means.

Marvel/Disney gets NO cut of movie profits. What they do get however is to control EVERYTHING in terms of merchandise profits and don't have to share any of it with Sony. So it sounds like Disney/Marvel traded controlling merchandising rights of Spider-Man in exchange for all movie rights, profits, participation.

Someone else feel free to translate this as well, but that's what I kind of gleaned from it.

So if you think about it, it's a smart move by Disney. They traded VOLATILE box office rights in exchange for lucrative movie rights. I mean think about it, we're always going to need tons of Spider-Man merch stocking the shelves for kids to gourd themselves on.

They control all the merchandise, and Sony contains all the movie stuff. In a way, it's almost like they've wiped their hands from it.

Marvel Studios gets stronger while it seems the Spider-Man movie franchise grows weaker.

The article described Spider-Man's box office participation as an "iron pit."

Essentially Disney are getting all the goods when it comes to merchandise revenue whilst more or less not having to lift a finger. Easy money. Why would they want to buy Spider-Man back when someone else is doing all the work for them?

 

[Lord]

Disney got the marketing rights? Not sure if that was a wise decision in SONY's part, i mean, i don't work in there, so i have no idea about what going on. However, this is a film series where each instalment can make around 600-900 million, but toys and the merchandising can generate 1 or 2 billion a year.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Probably a trade-off "if you refuse, we get the movie rights", that kind of thing, although probably not as simple as this.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Disney got the marketing rights? Not sure if that was a wise decision in SONY's part, i mean, i don't work in there, so i have no idea about what going on. However, this is a film series where each instalment can make around 600-900 million, but toys and the merchandising can generate 1 or 2 billion a year.

I don't know where you got that figure from but toy sales for SM1 amounted to 109M

 

[Mysteryman]

Is it bad that this reboot trilogy/series is doing less than any of the Raimi films domestically?

It is a little harsh to say that the trilogy is doing less than the original when the third film has not even been shot yet .

 

[Mysteryman]

I did some Google searching. And apparently this happened around 2011:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/07/09/spider-man-saves-the-day-but-not-for-sony.aspx



OK, now this is not my area of expertise but here is what I think this means.

Marvel/Disney gets NO cut of movie profits. What they do get however is to control EVERYTHING in terms of merchandise profits and don't have to share any of it with Sony. So it sounds like Disney/Marvel traded controlling merchandising rights of Spider-Man in exchange for all movie rights, profits, participation.

Someone else feel free to translate this as well, but that's what I kind of gleaned from it.

So if you think about it, it's a smart move by Disney. They traded VOLATILE box office rights in exchange for lucrative movie rights. I mean think about it, we're always going to need tons of Spider-Man merch stocking the shelves for kids to gourd themselves on.

They control all the merchandise, and Sony contains all the movie stuff. In a way, it's almost like they've wiped their hands from it.

Marvel Studios gets stronger while it seems the Spider-Man movie franchise grows weaker.

The article described Spider-Man's box office participation as an "iron pit."

If that is what it means,
That is a deal that I would have taken myself .

 

[Tim_Riggins]

It is a little harsh to say that the trilogy is doing less than the original when the third film has not even been shot yet .

It kind of happens often though, especially if you use inflation.

 

[ironman_rick]

Well at least this movie is breaking records all over the world.... This movie might do a IM2 (ie....gross lesser than previous movie domestically but eventually does much more worldwide).

With the lukewarm reviews & not that fantastic opening in Europe and US, I reckon getting to $800M will be seen as acceptable to Sony. I just hope Sony gets a new team (Directors, Writers...etc) to pen the next film. Maybe just get Sam Raimi to direct the 3rd film and give him all the freedom to make that movie as good as SM2.

from boxoffice.com

http://www.boxoffice.com/news/2014-...ning-day-numbers-in-latest-overseas-expansion

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is breaking records overseas as it expands to every market around the world over the weekend.
The Spidey sequel had grossed more than $155 million overseas before its latest weekend expansion. The film has since set several new benchmarks around the world, including:· biggest opening day of all time in Hong Kong (smashing the old record)
· Biggest opening day of all time in Indonesia
· Biggest opening day of all time in Malaysia
· Biggest opening day ever for a US film in India
· Biggest opening day ever for a US film in Vietnam
· Biggest two-day gross of all time in Philippines
· Biggest Thursday opening of all time in Thailand
· 2nd biggest opening day of all time in Singapore
· 3rd biggest opening day of all time in Brazil

 

[Mikelus]

It is a little harsh to say that the trilogy is doing less than the original when the third film has not even been shot yet .

No, TASM2 will make either a similar BO or less than the first one, and TASM3 is not going to make much more because of franchise fatigue, etc.

 

[daddydivine]

This movie could still do 850 mil. Other movies that had terrible reviews did. Honestly word of mouth isnt that bad for this movie. All my friends describe it as fun. Thats all you need for a summer blockbuster. Then again it could as easily make under 700 mil. This movie will either prove Spiderman is big enough to not care about critics or prove the critics right. I say the movie makes 750 mil. Good enough to beat certain other movies but not good enough to beat certain other movies. Both haters and fans will be happy.

 

[Marvin]

No, TASM2 will make either a similar BO or less than the first one, and TASM3 is not going to make much more because of franchise fatigue, etc.

When it comes to big summer cinema:
I'm not so sure about 'Franchise Fatigue'. For me it usually means something looses it's initial wow factor and it then has to rely on things other than that to bring people in. The impact of the real dinos in JP, The impact of a man flying, the impact of dude swinging through the streets at 60mph.
That magic and drawing power can and does fade but that results films mostly lose their advantage, not actually turning away the audience. Even ASM2 is still going to do big numbers...

That being said, I think the best way around contending with that is to present something new or some new angle or a 'reboot' that does something new.

For example, Bond has been around longer than any franchise and it's arguably stronger than ever. 'Franchise Fatigue' be damned. Granted, around the 3rd Brosnan film, it was getting 'tired' but that's partly because it was literally the same old thing. Ignoring quality that is. Then when they rebooted with Craig, there was something new but then into QOS, things got complacent and tired again, but then Skyfall offered something new and different. And that's really my point, the franchise is like anything in hollywood, first you lose that wow factor but then you have to give the audience something to get curious or excited about again.

IronMan was hitting this around the second movie and the third movie without avengers would a been a very telling thing imo. But post avengers and it offered up a curious new exciting angle for people to want to be a part of. "What happens after new york"

Batman has been around for a while, but Nolan did things it wasn't doing in cinema for the past 30 years. And I suspect snyder's ideas to really take it into new ground.

Superman is tricky because that is one situation where (initial)change is seemingly fought. I'm sure the new luthor alone will help this. If anything has gotten tired and hurt the brand it's that old style luthor over and over.

Xmen got tired around the 3rd(ignoring quality) and again, it was doing the same old tired thing. I feel after XFC, they finally have something new to offer. Not so sure about singer and the wolverine show returning, makes sense for financial security but I personally would have enjoyed seeing Vaughn do the real DOFP story with those leads.

Thor 3 will be more loki to be sure, not sure where else they can go. Another earth based story, another space fantasy story. Either way it's more thor and jane. As long as MCU has avengers they will be able to re-reinvigorate their properties going forward.

The nature of cap, fixes itself imo. Hard to tread the same ground over a franchise. Especially with new directors.

Spiderman imo is doing and selling the same thing it's been for the past 12 or so years. Only with new actors. What it has to offer cinema is the same. The cgi swinging and gobling gliders and catching the girlfriend...etc
Maybe this S6 thing will change all of that.

 

[JKKS085]

Lots of very good points made here.
Even though despite the fact that you ignore quality (which is a subjective matter) there seems to be a clear correlation.

 

[Marvin]

Lots of very good points made here.
Even though despite the fact that you ignore quality (which is a subjective matter) there seems to be a clear correlation.

There is a correlation but it's additive.
Both work in conjunction imo.

Ten great IM films all good quality and you'll still encounter this. They need to change things up.

 

[Tobias]

OS numbers look incredible and it will do better OW in US than some thought.

Can the film get close to 1 billion? Best case scenario.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

The one thing is to see if the movie has legs in those territories where it breaks out, but I think 750-800 M WW is in play right now.

@Tobias: no chance, Godzilla is coming up in 2 weeks, it's probably to cut its legs. 800 M max is what I'm thinking.

 

[DorneyDave]

Can someone explain cinema-score to me? How is that tallied?

I've seen reports that it's "B+" score is concerning but Man of Steel's "A-" was much better.

I mean maybe grades have changed since I went to school, but those seem pretty close for the report to describe one as good and one as bad.

 

[JOE]

OS numbers look incredible and it will do better OW in US than some thought.

Can the film get close to 1 billion? Best case scenario.

Where are these numbers you're speaking of? Not trying to sound snarky, just curious.

 

[miltonh]

Asia is strong but will be lucky to cover that decrease in Europe so OS finish around 470-510 is very realistic (and don't forget Sony will receive lower % from China than from UK or Germany). And then you have North America OW in low 90s - 2.6 multiplier and we're around 240. So don't see any other option than 710-750 millions worldwide.

 

[JOE]

If it can get to 753M +, I'll be ecstatic!

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Can someone explain cinema-score to me? How is that tallied?

I've seen reports that it's "B+" score is concerning but Man of Steel's "A-" was much better.

I mean maybe grades have changed since I went to school, but those seem pretty close for the report to describe one as good and one as bad.

Most CBMs (even those with lukewarm reception) tend to get A- grades. The ideal grade is an A or A+ so a B+ is concerning.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Cinemascores have no value: http://www.highdefdigest.com/blog/cinemascore-worthless/

"Secondly, polls are taken from 400-500 moviegoers in three of CinemaScore’s base-of-operation cities. "

Does that seem like a fair & worthy measure? Great movies have had terrible Cinemascores, horrible movies have had A- (Transformers hello)

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Cinemascores have no value: http://www.highdefdigest.com/blog/cinemascore-worthless/

"Secondly, polls are taken from 400-500 moviegoers in three of CinemaScore’s base-of-operation cities. "

Does that seem like a fair & worthy measure? Great movies have had terrible Cinemascores, horrible movies have had A- (Transformers hello)

This is the BO thread. So... kind of.

 

[Spider-Ock]

Why is any film's initial weekend take the lowest on Sunday?

 

[Tobias]

Where are these numbers you're speaking of? Not trying to sound snarky, just curious.

Posted above by IronManrick. Record breaking numbers in Asian territories.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So it officially opened with an estimated 92mil. I'm sure some were closer but my 89mil prediction wasn't far too far off.