The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Boxoffice.com has that it dropped 34% to 4.1mil.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Another thing that they need to do moving forward is calm down with all the reshoots. It seems like half of the last 2 films were reshot on the fly. Have a plan and stick to it.

That would certainly keep the budget down.

 

[spider-neil]

Guardian is reporting that even though Amazing Spider-Man 2 will come out on top in the UK for the third week in a row, it is technically being beaten by Neighbors. However, it has surpassed Captain America: the Winter Soldier in the UK, but is behind the first Amazing Spider-Man film by £1.77 million.

Us Brits love Spidey

 

[JKKS085]

Boxoffice.com has that it dropped 34% to 4.1mil.

Steep drop, expected though after tuesday's increase. Still the steeper drop of the top 10.
Looks like the first 7 days will end up significantly under the 115 millions estimates that were out there after the week end (most likely 111 M now).

 

[BlackFox]

Wednesday total from Mojo: $4,123,636 (-33.9%)

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Steep drop, expected though after tuesday's increase. Still the steeper drop of the top 10.

I predicted 4.4mil but the drop is understandable. That increase was higher than it would have been because of the Monday drop being harder than it should have been. Unless the family audience bolsters it on Friday and Mother's Day helps I continue to think a 60% drop is happening.

My new predictions for the weekend are:

1. Neighbors-38mil
2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 35.9mil.

No matter who ends up on top I think it's going to be a close race.

 

[JKKS085]

I predicted 4.4mil but the drop is understandable. That increase was higher than it would have been because of the Monday drop being harder than it should have been. Unless the family audience bolsters it on Friday I continue to think a 60% drop is happening.

My new predictions for the weekend are:

1. Neighbors-38mil
2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 35.9mil.

No matter who ends up on top I think it's going to be a close race.

I still think Neighbors can pull off 40M + even if the latest reviews tend to be a little less raving. I think the demand for an R-Rated comedy is high, so unless it falls far off the early estimates I'd say it'll make anywhere between 39 to 42M. As for TASM 2 I think it's gonna fall in a similar range (35/36M) since there is no indication so far that it could drop less than 60%.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

You are probably going to be right about Neighbors hitting 40+mil but something is holding me back from going that high. Maybe because 40+mil is still a big number for an R rated comedy to hit.

Some are predicting a 58-59% drop for TASM 2 and my 60.8% drop is close to that, still I'd be a little surprised with a clean under 60% drop. 59.5-59.6% is close enough to 60% that I wouldn't be surprised but a Cap 2 type drop would surprise me. And I'm just predicting based on the weekday numbers and mixed word of mouth.

 

[Liam_H]

There's a chance it can have a sub 60% drop. If you give it a small drop on Thursday to 4m then it could perform similar to IM3 and lead to something like 58-59% drop.

 

[Tobias]

There's a chance it can have a sub 60% drop. If you give it a small drop on Thursday to 4m then it could perform similar to IM3 and lead to something like 58-59% drop.

BOM is still predicting a 230 million domestic BO BTW.

 

[Liam_H]

I don't see how that's gonna happen now, more like $210-220M right now.

Edit: Actually I'll say $205-215M.

 

[JKKS085]

I don't think 230 millions can happen either unless the film has an insanely long run and a somehow better hold despite the competition. The 205/215M range seems indeed much more plausible. I would maybe narrow it to 205/210, especially if that 60%+ drop is confirmed over the week end.

 

[JKKS085]

Some are predicting a 58-59% drop for TASM 2 and my 60.8% drop is close to that, still I'd be a little surprised with a clean under 60% drop. 59.5-59.6% is close enough to 60% that I wouldn't be surprised but a Cap 2 type drop would surprise me. And I'm just predicting based on the weekday numbers and mixed word of mouth.

I wouldn't exactly be surprised by a 58/59% drop either. So far TASM2 seems to be drawing family audiences who won't be drawn by Neighbors and could very well rush to see the film over the week end and make up for the low week days.
I still think the movie will drop around 60% (so basically yes anything between 59.5 et 60.5), I don't think a Cap 2 hold is within reach but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up somewhere between 58 and 60% even if a 35-36 week end is most likely IMO. Today's number should give us more details as to how the movie is expected to perform over the week end.

 

[TalismanRing]

To be fair it's likely to make $100 million in China if it's legs aren't bad.

It's doing the same weekday #s as TWS but w/o a full holiday w/e behind it. An $80m target in China looks more likely and it would need good legs for the usually more front loaded China market.

 

[Leenie]

I'm predicting that Neighbors is going to take the #1 spot this coming weekend, but not by a large margin.

I'm thinking it'll make around $40 mil, with TASM2 trailing not far behind.

 

[chaseter]

If Spider-Man ends below $215 million domestic, that is truly pathetic.

 

[Arach Knight]

This film won't have legs. In one week, there is Godzilla. In two weeks, Days of Future Past is releasing. In three weeks, Maleficient will be out. May is jam packed with blockbusters. If Spider-Man is already dropping by huge margins with no real competitor, what hooe does it have against three tentpole films?

 

[Tobias]

It's doing the same weekday #s as TWS but w/o a full holiday w/e behind it. An $80m target in China looks more likely and it would need good legs for the usually more front loaded China market.

Any idea, guess, on best/worst case scenario for OS numbers?

 

[marcvader]

More and more this looks like its barely making it over 600 WW.

 

[starkresilient]

#AmazingSpiderMan2 on track to finish 1st full week w/ about $111M. That's -23% vs last pic & down 42% from 2004's SM2.

so neighbours can really take down spider-man

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The international numbers are really good, it's going to easily make well over 600mil.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I can't see ASM2 finishing ahead of TWS domestically now. It has finished behind TWS every day of release now and is $6 million behind total. It will need better legs, but given the competition, mediocre reviews, and the overall good legs that TWS had to begin with, that seems unlikely.

 

[marcvader]

The international numbers are really good, it's going to easily make well over 600mil.

You think more than 625?

 

[Tobias]

More and more this looks like its barely making it over 600 WW.

I'm not expert on OS numbers but this will be its 2nd or 3rd weekend in OS markets, many anyway< so it has several weeks to go and haul in more. I think its a question now of does it beat TASM 1 WW total or not. I think it will be close.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm not that good at reading international numbers but people in the know are expecting over 500mil overseas alone and it should do 215-230mil domestically. I'd say 700+mil is firmly locked with a shot at 800mil if it gets well over 500mil internationally. It's only going to be a disappointment because of the astronomical amount of money spent on it. If Sony stops spending 400mil plus they could keep making these films until the international market gets sick of them.