The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Tymminator]

I can't see ASM2 finishing ahead of TWS domestically now. It has finished behind TWS every day of release now and is $6 million behind total. It will need better legs, but given the competition, mediocre reviews, and the overall good legs that TWS had to begin with, that seems unlikely.

Yep.

 

[TalismanRing]

It made $116,000,000 O/S last w/e for a $277,000,000 total. I don't see how it possibly does less $450m O/S. $500m is more than likely. Even if China "only" brings in $75-80m that's $30m more than the last one. Most other markets are about even to the ASM1 which did $490m with a couple of outliers.

 

[marcvader]

Ok, I thought people were saying 400mil OS.

 

[metaphysician]

Hughes at Forbes thinks the 450 cost numbers are exaggerated. For what it is worth.

I agree with him. Particularly since marketing costs are not equivalent to production costs. A whole hell of a lot of marketing "costs" exist purely on paper, based on mutual exchange of contractual promises rather than actual money changing hands.

 

[Stark Bauer]

1st point: I think Sony is mishandling the Spidey franchise. Lets compare it to Batman.

Tim Burton's Batmans were like Sam Raimi's Spider-Mans.
This reboot is similar to when Tim Burton left, the quality has diminished and lacks that special charm that the originals lacked (however I feel that Garfield is the best Spidey and closer to the comic book Spidey).
Christopher Nolan's Batman movies have brought the bar higher for comic book movies forever. I only hope Marvel Studios can get the rights to Spidey and do for Spidey what Nolan did for Batman.

2nd point: Sony's desperate attempt to keep the rights is going to backfire.

They are going to spend at least a 1-2 billion on these movies including TASM2 and the forecast is looking like they wont make that much of a profit. It is a blessing in disguise for Marvel as Sony's desperation is making for a poor quality product that is rushed and lacks the lustre of Marvel's own studio films.

3rd point: TASM2 BO predictions: BOM is predicting a final domestic BO of 230. BOG (Gitesh) thinks 225. He is also predicting Spidey to beat Neigbours 37 to 35 million. I think that 225-235 is a safe bet but no more than 250.

 

[bapi]

North America: 220-240
China: 80
OS: 400-420

Yeah, still think ASM2 will finish under 740M WW.

 

[spiderman2]

oh I don't know about os being 400-420. I think it is already at 280 or something and didn't the movie just came out around the same time in china has it did in usa? I do think the usa thing could happened. I think we could see something like USA 230 OS 500 for 730 still less then the first movie. But with what you are saying you are saying 660 if I am not mistaken? Or what do you mean by china and OS?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Box Office Mojo has Neighbors beating TASM 2 in their prediction, with TASM 2 making under $40m. If that happens, that is not good.

oh I don't know about os being 400-420. I think it is already at 280 or something and didn't the movie just came out around the same time in china has it did in usa? I do think the usa thing could happened. I think we could see something like USA 230 OS 500 for 730 still less then the first movie. But with what you are saying you are saying 660 if I am not mistaken? Or what do you mean by china and OS?

He has China separated, probably because it is the second biggest potential market and the amount they receive from the Chinese box office is much lower. The OS and China numbers together would come up to $500m Internationally. His total would be around $740m, about the same as yours.

 

[Liam_H]

All things considered if the movie can pull in $37.5m or higher this weekend that would be a win.

 

[Mysteryman]

Yeah but 36 million isn't really a loss is it?
I would think anything 35 or over is good.

 

[GenUsername]

It's kinda sad to see how low this franchise has gotten. Not making more than Cap domestically is embarrassing.

 

[bapi]

Neighbors midnight jsut a bit under Ted so 40+ opening seems quite likely.

 

[lukebrodyg]

I say it still pulls over 200m domestic. Sony will keep it in theaters as long as they can to see that happen. Even if it barely ticks by 200m.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

It will make $200 million unless the legs are atrocious.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Im thinking it just barely makes it to 200m or just under. $500 plus overseas will then be an absolute must, and it will probably get there.

But I assure you that this movie making around the same or even LESS than ASM1 was not part of Sony's plan. Some reassessments will likely be in order.

 

[spiderman2]

yeah sony wanted a billion so they can not be happy if it makes 700-800 million has that is a good 200-300 million short and they can not be happy that this movies are making around 100 million less then spider man 1-3 when those movies didn't have 3d or higher price tickets like we have today. For a spider man movie with 3d to have trouble making 200 million in the USA is a joke. They say you have to spend money to make money witch is true has a lot of movies that make a lot cost a lot to make. Movies like this that cost 200 or more in budget need to make a good amount of money and if this movie makes 210 USA OS 500 for 710 what is going to happen with the amazing spider man 3? Is it going to drop again and make 190 USA OS 480 for 670 or something? Lots of things for sony to think about going forward.

 

[SM71]

In all fairness, the first Spider-man franchise also had MUCH less CBM competition, so I don't think it's necessarily unrealistic or unreasonable to expect these movies to do less than the 1st trilogy (which if I'm correct, with inflation is over the $1B mark right?) And not only regular CBMs, but between TASM1 and 2, they were released adjacent to some of the biggest CBMs ever released (TDKR, TA, TWS). And now TASM2 also has Godzilla.

I'd say that's abnormally stiff competition for a film series to take on, regardless of how popular a character we're talking about. People only have so much money

 

[spiderman2]

Yeah less CBM compaction but there where still big movies they went up agest like harry potter and load of the rings. When you but inflation and 3d that makes a big difference and on top of that the international market has gotten a lot bigger in the last 5-10 years. Really it is pathetic with all of that to make less. That would be like the next batman movies making less if it was the year 2023 or something and they where in 3d.

 

[bapi]

And that comic book movie competition only means one thing - people want quality.

 

[Tobias]

In all fairness, the first Spider-man franchise also had MUCH less CBM competition, so I don't think it's necessarily unrealistic or unreasonable to expect these movies to do less than the 1st trilogy (which if I'm correct, with inflation is over the $1B mark right?) And not only regular CBMs, but between TASM1 and 2, they were released adjacent to some of the biggest CBMs ever released (TDKR, TA, TWS). And now TASM2 also has Godzilla.

I'd say that's abnormally stiff competition for a film series to take on, regardless of how popular a character we're talking about. People only have so much money

It will be interesting to see what the new Batman trilogy does compared to Nolan's batman. Then we might have a gauge as to whether the phenomena is widespread - follow-up franchises to uber-successful previous franchises underperforming. Same will apply when Downey leaves IronMan and how fell the follow-up rebooted franchise does.

Other than Batman and the original Spiderman franchise, its just in recent years that new successful CBM franchises have come about - IM, AV, Cap and Thor. They are still in their first iteration so it will be a numbers of years before the performance of their subsequent franchises is known.

This may be more than just a Spidey issue.

 

[spiderman2]

While the thing is a lot of people are not happy with the new spider man movies so spidy has lost a lot of fans. The dark knight trilogy is going to be hard to live up to with the next batman movies. But really when you take 3d and inflation for the spider man movies they should beable to make the same at least as the first 3 spider man movies. If you take the amazing spiderman 752 million and take away the 3d and have the ticket pricess has the same has they where back when spider man 1-3 came out the amazing spider man would only be like a 400 million dollar movie that is way less then spider man 1-3 made. Really these movie should beable to make at least a billion and up to like 1.6 billion. Dark knight rises and dark knight both made about a billion so a good 250 million more the spidy and that is without 3d and while batman is popular he is not has popular has spidy. Iron man 3 made like 1.2 billion and he is way less popular then spidy. What spider man needs is a movie like iron man 1 or avengers or batman begins that get people back into the movies again.

 

[Tobias]

While the thing is a lot of people are not happy with the new spider man movies so spidy has lost a lot of fans. The dark knight trilogy is going to be hard to live up to with the next batman movies. But really when you take 3d and inflation for the spider man movies they should beable to make the same at least as the first 3 spider man movies. If you take the amazing spiderman 752 million and take away the 3d and have the ticket pricess has the same has they where back when spider man 1-3 came out the amazing spider man would only be like a 400 million dollar movie that is way less then spider man 1-3 made. Really these movie should beable to make at least a billion and up to like 1.6 billion. Dark knight rises and dark knight both made about a billion so a good 250 million more the spidy and that is without 3d and while batman is popular he is not has popular has spidy. Iron man 3 made like 1.2 billion and he is way less popular then spidy. What spider man needs is a movie like iron man 1 or avengers or batman begins that get people back into the movies again.

But is it really that easy to make a billion? You need a "new" type of CBM, great director and script and a little bit of luck.

I'm not sure the Nolan magic can be duplicated with this new Batman trilogy. And the same for IronMan.

A billion may remain the exception for CBM's except for team films.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

It will be interesting to see what the new Batman trilogy does compared to Nolan's batman. Then we might have a gauge as to whether the phenomena is widespread - follow-up franchises to uber-successful previous franchises underperforming. Same will apply when Downey leaves IronMan and how fell the follow-up rebooted franchise does.

Other than Batman and the original Spiderman franchise, its just in recent years that new successful CBM franchises have come about - IM, AV, Cap and Thor. They are still in their first iteration so it will be a numbers of years before the performance of their subsequent franchises is known.

This may be more than just a Spidey issue.

The difference is Fox, Wb, and Marvel Studios have the ability to rest franchises. Sony doesn't really have that luxury. Look how we don't yet have a date for a Thor sequel, even though Thor 2 did better than the first one.

 

[spiderman2]

for spidy to make a billion should be easy. The first ones with inflation and 3d would all be like around 1.4 billion so even if you lost like 30% on ticket sales you would still be right around a billion. The franchise has lost like 45-50% on ticket sales that is a big big number. I don't think people realize just how big spidy is. I would bet like $10000 that if this movie was getting really good to great reviews say like a 85-94 on RT that the movie would make a billion or at least close like $950 million. I think the fate that the amazing spider man 1 made 762 million when it was a reboot and did the orgine over again witch made it to much like spider man 1 and had to go up agest dark knight rises and avengers so just how much people love spider man.

 

[spiderman2]

other way to think about it is that the last 3 spider mans have gotten bad, slighty good and bad reviews. If iron man or batman or any other super hero had 3 movies in a row not really consider good I think they would be doing a lot worse then what we are seeing right now with spidey.