The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Liam_H]

I also question the movie dropping just under 60% but I guess we will see soon. Domestic finish still around $205-215m for me.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

I highly doubt it, Godzilla is probably going to be huge in the Asian countries, which takes a huge chunk out of the market. As for the rest of the international market, DOFP may be the new toy of the week that they'll want to see for the next two weeks.

Also, 225-235mil is underwhelming when you consider how much other superheroes have made.

Cap 2 made 200,00 something. Not exactly underwhelming.

 

[Raiden]

I usually don't trust estimates that give a film just under a certain drop that would look bad but Mother's Day could help it so I could be wrong. I'm undecided whether I trust the Sunday drop or not. It could go either way IMHO.

Where the film is headed domestically really depends on how well it holds up the next two weekends. I'm still seeing between 215-230mil. Until a week before it's release I thought it was going to slightly increase it's domestic numbers. Seems like TASM 3 could be in for a 190-205mil gross.

It's nice to see that Forbes guy giving the film's box office a fair assessment. He isn't panering to either side and that's how box office figures should be reported on because numbers are numbers.

If TASM2 fell 60% against a R-rated comedy, I doubt it'll fare better against Godzilla and DOFP since both target the same demographics as this movie. I won't be surprised if it dropped over 50% next week as well.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

If TASM2 fell 60% against a R-rated comedy, I doubt it'll fare better against Godzilla and DOFP since both target the same demographics as this movie. I won't be surprised if it dropped over 50% next week as well.

It didn't fall 60% to the movie. Most comics films have a big drop the next weekend. Cap 2 did it WITHOUT real competition.

 

[JKKS085]

I usually don't trust estimates that give a film just under a certain drop that would look bad but Mother's Day could help it so I could be wrong. I'm undecided whether I trust the Sunday drop or not. It could go either way IMHO.

Where the film is headed domestically really depends on how well it holds up the next two weekends. I'm still seeing between 215-230mil. Until a week before it's release I thought it was going to slightly increase it's domestic numbers. Seems like TASM 3 could be in for a 190-205mil gross.

It's nice to see that Forbes guy giving the film's box office a fair assessment. He isn't panering to either side and that's how box office figures should be reported on because numbers are numbers.

That's precisely what I'm wondering even though TOW and Neighbors seem to draw a more female oriented audience (Neighbors attendance was 53% female this week end). With 2 strong competitors in this demo I don't see TASM2 holding about the same as TOW on sunday. That's mostly why think this hold is conveniently suspicious. Now I might be wrong too but there's a fair chance we see TASM2 actuals land in the 36M range and Neighbors actually getting numbers closer to 50M (or even a bit under).

Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on where you stand on this issue) I think the next couple of weeks are going to be tough for Spidey domestically and internationaly. Godzilla seems to be getting decent reviews and a pretty good buzz, it's going to kill the box office in Asia as soon as may 15 (except for China where the movie is set a for a mid-june release) which is where TASM2 is making most of its overseas money. And the fact that it will hit most territories at the same time won't help either.

I don't see TASM 2 with enough legs to hold against direct competition in it's 3rd week end while an R-Rated comedy already hurt its take. And since most international markets opened earlier I don't think it's going to fare well against Godzilla overseas either.

I think things will only get worse from now on.

 

[InJustice]

Cap 2 made 200,00 something. Not exactly underwhelming.

>Domestic Total as of May. 11, 2014: $244,997,000 (Estimate)

That's pretty underwhelming. Plus, if you consider Spider-Man to be more popular than Superman, Batman etc., it's even more underwhelming since Superman has gotten 291mil last year, and Batman Begins got 205mil without factoring in 3D.

 

[JKKS085]

It didn't fall 60% to the movie. Most comics films have a big drop the next weekend. Cap 2 did it WITHOUT real competition.

CATWS dropped 56,6% on its second week end (so nowhere near 60%) against a 39M opener. TASM2 would have lost the top spot against Rio 2.

 

[Liam_H]

The goal for this movie is to fall no more than 50-55% next weekend.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If TASM2 fell 60% against a R-rated comedy, I doubt it'll fare better against Godzilla and DOFP since both target the same demographics as this movie. I won't be surprised if it dropped over 50% next week as well.

I would be surprised if the film dropped under 50% up against another fanboy movie.

The North American movie theaters cannot be happy with this summer so far. Surely they knew that it wasn't going to keep up with last year though. Spider-Man opened with 91.6mil while Iron Man opened with 174mil, Iron Man's second weekend was 72mil while Spider-Man's is 37mil. If Neighbors hadn't over performed things would have looked even worse.

I like that Neighbors over performed but it's going to be a pretty boring summer if we don't have more of that. I'm hoping Godzilla and X-Men open to massive numbers.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

>Domestic Total as of May. 11, 2014: $244,997,000 (Estimate)

That's pretty underwhelming. Plus, if you consider Spider-Man to be more popular than Superman, Batman etc., it's even more underwhelming since Superman has gotten 291mil last year, and Batman Begins got 205mil without factoring in 3D.

It's underwhelming for YOU. I disagree. If they focused solely on the domestic and if the domestic was the ONLY number then yes it would be a disaster. But that's not the case. They go after the international numbers now. Even SM2 was lower than 1. It's OK.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

I would be surprised if the film dropped under 50% up against another fanboy movie.

The North American movie theaters cannot be happy with this summer so far. Surely they knew that it wasn't going to keep up with last year though. Spider-Man opened with 91.6mil while Iron Man opened with 174mil, Iron Man's second weekend was 72mil while Spider-Man's is 37mil. If Neighbors hadn't over performed things would have looked even worse.

I like that Neighbors over performed but it's going to be a pretty boring summer if we don't have more of that. I'm hoping Godzilla and X-Men open to massive numbers.

......Did you survey everyone?????? And Iron Man??? That was 2008! This thread is annoying lol. You compare films from years and years ago!

 

[InJustice]

It's underwhelming for YOU. I disagree. If they focused solely on the domestic and if the domestic was the ONLY number then yes it would be a disaster. But that's not the case. They go after the international numbers now. Even SM2 was lower than 1. It's OK.

You can't just rely on International Numbers just because they appear to be a bigger slice of the pie, because IIRC, Studios make less from International Numbers than they do with Domestic Numbers (because of distribution costs etc.).

 

[TeeKay]

......Did you survey everyone?????? And Iron Man??? That was 2008! This thread is annoying lol. You compare films from years and years ago!

He meant Iron man 3.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

CATWS dropped 56,6% on its second week end (so nowhere near 60%) against a 39M opener. TASM2 would have lost the top spot against Rio 2.

56% is NO WHERE near 60%?? Hmm......

 

[kbrooksgohan]

He meant Iron man 3.

Ok. Iron Man 3 had the Avengers to boost it. Spidey didn't. Besides....there are other factors at play.

 

[Liam_H]

When you are dealing with percentages that kind of a gap is noticeable. Just like you shouldn't say a movie dropped close to 50% when it actually dropped 55%.

 

[JKKS085]

56% is NO WHERE near 60%?? Hmm......

Box-Office wise, money wise, yeah there's a huge difference.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

Box-Office wise, money wise, yeah there's a huge difference.

Not really dude. There are other factors. I was talking about the percentage. And 4 percent does not make a HUGE difference.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

When you are dealing with percentages that kind of a gap is noticeable. Just like you shouldn't say a movie dropped close to 50% when it actually dropped 55%.

Meh. The movies making money. Tomato Tometo.

BTW....

Hello Dad! When did you get back from OtherWorld??????

 

[JKKS085]

Not really dude. There are other factors. I was talking about the percentage. And 4 percent does not make a HUGE difference.

Yes dude. If you knew what you were talking about, which I doubt given your previous comments, we wouldn't have this "discussion".

 

[Liam_H]

Dude, my avatar is Gohan not Goku.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

Yes dude. If you knew what you were talking about, which I doubt given you previous comments we wouldn't have this discussion.

That has nothing to do with it. For me it's all the same. People act like the movie dropping 50% is some new concept. It's really not. Regardless of how popular Cap 2 was it still fell. Yes this movie had it's flaws but dropping is inevitable. It didn't just happen because the movie got some mixed reception.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

Dude, my avatar is Gohan not Goku.

YOU BASTARD! I am Gohan! LOL...

 

[Andrew Lucas]

I'm Batman.

 

[kbrooksgohan]

i'm batman.

....lol!