The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

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While it's silly to blame the lack of consecutive success from this series on the last, it's clear there's a serious problem for Sony going forward with this franchise.

TASM1 I think was mostly a success, although I thought the movie was terrible. I think that even though the performance was less than what the previous films were, you could chalk that up to resetting the series and having to re-establish itself.

TASM2's woes are pretty much in the form that the film is a mess. Yes there's a part of me that likes what they were trying to do, but the reality is that when you sit back and look at this film, it's a freaking mess. It didn't help that it came off the heels of TWS where there was such a dramatic increase in the quality of the film over the first one.

I would say that TASM2 is better than TASM1, if only in scope but in execution it's terrible. Mark Webb is clearly in over his head and bit off way more than he could chew. Whether or not this was pressure from the studio or just his idea, I am not sure, but this film was chalk full of half developed or completely undeveloped characters and plot lines.

That's why this film underwhelmed at the B.O. not because there's no interest in the character, or because other SH films are overwhelming this one. If that's not clear it certainly will be when DOFP comes out which is now tracking for 130M opening. And this in the wake of a big scandal where even the cast seem to be distancing themselves from the director.
 
Neighbours was actually good though.:oldrazz:

Lol, Neighbors was a good film.

While I don't agree with Marvin, I think what he is saying is Transformers is good for what it is which is why people watch it. Like I said, I don't agree and I found Neighbors to be a great film no matter how you slice.

Ignoring the thin plot, lack of substance, reliance of potty and or offensive 'frat' humor, excessiveness, skin...I really could go on. I find both films good for what they are setting out to be.

Just as I tend to do with buddy cop movies. But that's me.
 
Ignoring the thin plot, lack of substance, reliance of potty and or offensive 'frat' humor, excessiveness, skin...I really could go on. I find both films good for what they are setting out to be.

Just as I tend to do with buddy cop movies. But that's me.
If you'd like to discuss Neighbors, I would be more then willing in the right thread. For now I'll just say that it had plenty of substance, while having many different brands of humor that all worked very well together. :)
 
Ignoring the thin plot, lack of substance, reliance of potty and or offensive 'frat' humor, excessiveness, skin...I really could go on. I find both films good for what they are setting out to be.

Just as I tend to do with buddy cop movies. But that's me.

Disagree but we can't discuss this here. C. Lee is showing no mercy these days.:oldrazz:
 
If you'd like to discuss Neighbors, I would be more then willing in the right thread. For now I'll just say that it had plenty of substance, while having many different brands of humor that all worked very well together. :)

Disagree but we can't discuss this here. C. Lee is showing no mercy these days.:oldrazz:

True that,
I was just answering the post.

A film that fails to deliver on it's 'promise' such as ASM2 in alot of ways, is 'bad'. A film that delivers on said thing is 'good'. When films that aren't good consistently make money, there is usually something else going on(see 'the prequels').
 
60% estimated weekend drop is not too surprising I guess with the way this film has gone but it needed a good weekend with Godzilla next week and DOFP the one after not going to get much change out of them as so far both are getting decent early reactions.
 
Wow. A once proud franchise getting its ass whipped by Zac Ephron. Lets bow our heads.:csad:
 
Wow. A once proud franchise getting its ass whipped by Zac Ephron. Lets bow our heads.:csad:

7-23-12-Munich-moment-of-silence_full_600.jpg
 
Teekay are you going to do a review of the movie comparing the final movie to the ruff cut? I thought I heard that you where going to do something like that and I would like to hear about how much was different as I love the movie but wish that so much didn't get cut out.
 
Don't remember saying all that much about how Neighbors would do actually, particularly in this section. However, being an R rated comedy doesn't disqualify who it's audience is. Want to gander at just who is it that actually watches R rated comedies such as TED/21 Jumpstreet/This is the End/The Hangover? Pretty sure it's a good amount of the same people that watch spiderman

So yes, I think Neighbors is direct competition(unlike 12 years a slave) [...]

So many contradictions, clear errors, falsehoods, omissions that I don't really have the time to adress them all. But here's one.

TASM2 and Neighbors have very different breakdown demos. Most of the TASM's audience is male, most of Neighbors audience is female. TASM behaves like a family film (low weak days apart from an healthy tuesday bump, 175%+ friday bump, good saturday bump and decent sunday hold) meaning that it appeals to kids and their parents which is a different demo than the ya rushing to watch Neighbors or any other R-Rated comedy.

MoS faced in its second week end a 4 quadrants Pixar film and a zombie action film drawing young males so the comparision is completely irrelevant.

You forgot to adress TASM2's early tracking which was about 37 millions (around a 60% drop) for the week end (and about 10 millions less for Neighbors) based on TASM's week days only and had nothing to do with Neighbors overperforming ? Were they delusionnal or driven by some kind of agenda too? TASM2's number were pretty much set in stone after last week end all competition aside. Because let's face it it didn't faced any competition during its opening week end (unless you consider TOW direct competition too and I think you can spin that too) and it performed quite poorly (but I know it's the MCU's fault).

Now please, keep on finding excuses, keep on twisting things after they happened without assessing the main reason why TASM2 is underperforming because in the end, this is rather fun. After all this is what you said about Neighbors being competition last Tuesday answering Angryfantasyfan's statement (which is pretty much the opposite of what you're saying today):

The demographic that would be drawn to that is the same one Neighbors will appeal to.

I thought Neighbors was an R comedy? Families and children?

I think it says a lot.
 
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You forgot to adress TASM2 tracking which predicted about 37 millions (around a 60% drop) for the week end and about 10 millions less for Neighbors based on TASM's week days only and had nothing to do with Neighbors overperforming ? Were they delusionnal or driven by some kind of agenda too? TASM2's number were pretty much set in stone after last week end all competition aside. Because let's face it it didn't faced any competition during its opening week end (unless you consider TOW direct competition too and I think you can spin that too) and it performed quite poorly (but I know it's the MCU's fault).

Yeah, Neighbours was tracking earlier this week to make the same numbers (this w/e) as Rio 2 made in it's OW. Yet, TASM2 was still projected to have a 60% drop.
 
Yeah, Neighbours was tracking earlier this week to make the same numbers (this w/e) as Rio 2 made in it's OW. Yet, TASM2 was still projected to have a 60% drop.

Maybe because it's dropping on its own merits ;)
 
Disagree but we can't discuss this here. C. Lee is showing no mercy these days.:oldrazz:

Oh, I'm showing mercy....if people think what I've been doing is bad....wait until I decide to really show no mercy......:oldrazz:
 
Just found this

BnZNXXhIIAITS9p.png:large


Each film makes less than the one before it. And look at that HUGE drop between TASM and TASM2. I know TASM2 isn't out of theaters yet, but WOW. It's almost the same as the drop between SM3 and TASM
 
Sugar coating facts. TASM2 has been out overseas for almost 5 weeks.

I'm seeing a lot of sugar coating in this thread actually.

true you also have to factor in that cap2 budget is 170 mill compared to spidey budget with is between 230 to 250mill so you cant say its a success if it makes as much as cap2
 
Just found this

BnZNXXhIIAITS9p.png:large


Each film makes less than the one before it. And look at that HUGE drop between TASM and TASM2. I know TASM2 isn't out of theaters yet, but WOW. It's almost the same as the drop between SM3 and TASM

What huge drop do you mean for us to look at? The film has been out a week...
 
So many contradictions, clear errors, falsehoods, omissions that I don't really have the time to adress them all. But here's one.

TASM2 and Neighbors have very different breakdown demos. Most of the TASM's audience is male, most of Neighbors audience is female. TASM behaves like a family film (low weak days apart from an healthy tuesday bump, 175%+ friday bump, good saturday bump and decent sunday hold) meaning that it appeals to kids and their parents which is a different demo than the ya rushing to watch Neighbors or any other R-Rated comedy.

MoS faced in its second week end a 4 quadrants Pixar film and a zombie action film drawing young males so the comparision is completely irrelevant.

You forgot to adress TASM2's early tracking which was about 37 millions (around a 60% drop) for the week end (and about 10 millions less for Neighbors) based on TASM's week days only and had nothing to do with Neighbors overperforming ? Were they delusionnal or driven by some kind of agenda too? TASM2's number were pretty much set in stone after last week end all competition aside. Because let's face it it didn't faced any competition during its opening week end (unless you consider TOW direct competition too and I think you can spin that too) and it performed quite poorly (but I know it's the MCU's fault).
You remove all the YA's from the spidey audience poll, including the girls that are primed for the romance angle post ASM and the famed spiderman numbers will drastically change. This isn't Dredd. Talk of how demo breakdowns work doesn't account for how many many young men went along to watch titanic with their dates. Spiderman 'performing' as a family film with it's stronger weekend vs weekdays during may, doesn't negate that young adults fuel all these sorts of films to large degrees.

This only Neighbors tracking I've read was lead by young males(spiderman has no interest in them clearly) followed by females(again nothing of interest to spidey). Imagine that. I'm left wondering, what on earth are you exactly referring to here. Last I heard the audience for ASM2 is 60 percentile males, now I'm to believe that has no cross over with a hit R Rogen comedy...as I'm sure it also isn't indicative of that last McFarlane R comedy or this 22 jump street film either.

MOS faced a solid competition at the box office(though people like to ignore it), ASM faced solid competition at the box office, the relevance begins there. Unless you can some how prove that ASM would have made the same amount of money it did had this weekend had no new releases, the amount of quadrants is a fickle game imo. In my screening of Neighbors, there were a large amount of males my age. I assume the same happened in the screening afterward and across the continent. Not so different than most Seth Rogan R comedies including Superbad.

Now I'm blaming the MCU? Please do me a favor and find that particular post while we are at it, if you can't please stop putting words in my mouth. Get this much straight if anything, I am firmly on the ASM2 is under performing angle, particularly it's opening weekend. This current discussion pertains to if it would have done better against Rio or Neighbors. Do I think asm 2 would have performed as well as any of the raimi films if Neighbors wasn't around, no. Again this is about falling second place the equally poorly received Rio.
If nothing else(and I'm sure there will be nothing) retain that.

As for the tracking point. This same tracking that suggested Neighbors wasn't going to land over 50mill? That's great that forecasts supposedly thought the film would do one thing but I'm more concerned with what the reality was. Same deal with WWZ. For when it comes to discussing the ebbs and flows of the weekend, the actuals tell a better story for pertinent discussion. That being said; I personally didn't stumble upon any trade tracking for ASM2 that landed before thursday night. How early was this early tracking that specified 37mill exactly and did it at all mention Neighbors? Link? I don't really buy that the number was simply derived from the day by day performance but rather, but the weekend tracking, as it was for Neighbors.

Moreover I'm not talking about neighbors over performing but rather performing strong with high word of mouth, I haven't seen any tracking whatsoever that hasn't mentioned neighbors and it's pull. Sorry.

Now please, keep on finding excuses, keep on twisting things after they happened without assessing the main reason why TASM2 is underperforming because in the end, this is rather fun. After all this is what you said about Neighbors being competition last Tuesday answering Angryfantasyfan's statement (which is pretty much the opposite of what you're saying today):

I think it says a lot.
Families and Children! How is that at all any different that what I'm saying today? Pretty sure no 6 or 10 year olds and the pixar family ilk went to see the movie with penises and curse words. I wasn't counting on families and children to flock to Neighbors and I'm certain children with their families didn't contribute the films gross in any significant manner(if at all).

Is that the only quote you can find?
I think that says alot..

Just a guess but you really do seem to have a thing for people that you think are trying to do what you are accusing me of. Good luck with that. The main reason, as I've said, for this particular films under performance is a variety of things that mostly fall upon sony's decision making(such as another goblin story, convoluted story, nothing new being brought to the table, no MJ and so on). One of the major reasons it's going to fall short of it's expected domestic haul is due to the major competition that lies before it(as historically seen with other similar films). I also think this weekend would have landed higher if there were no new releases at all.
When I say that's the only reason the film is underperforming, then you have my endorsement to run off at the mouth. Till then, let's keep it focused here.

Now let me ask you a basic question. Do you think that all this May competition will play no such factor in ASM's totals? If you say anything but no, you will find yourself squarely in my particular position. Which is hella fun btw.
 
Well quite a few people have "partially" blamed the MCU for TASM2's under performance previously on this thread (not anyone in the last few pages though).

If this movie was as good as people were hoping it wouldn't have been "overwhelmed" by the MCU.
 
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