The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[TeeKay]

"I suppose this is what happens when you cross fan art with social commentary. I came up with the idea for this gag illustration after watching “The Amazing Spiderman 2″ on opening weekend, but only just now got around to finishing it. It pretty much summarizes how I felt about the new franchise, the larger Marvel cinematic universe and the realities of binding contracts."

Ouch! I just love my boy Iron Man with the shades flying in the back.

 

[Eddie]

Box Office Mojo only updates OS numbers once a week, so I'm not sure what your point is. Also, Sony may have a high end goal of 1 billion, but they probably have a range of success, where they consider anything from 700-1 billion successful, while under 700 is a problem. A recent interview stated that they were happy going forward with future films making half a billion WW as a sign of success. You realize only about half the profit comes from theatrical Box Office?

TASM2 may have less of a WW box office drop than the original trilogy had from SM to SM2, which I'm sure they will be happy with.

Where's the other half coming from, the merchandise that they see no profit from or the magical gold fairy that visits Avi in his dreams?

Seriously, though, this movie probably would be in the green by now if Sony was making some of that sweet merchandising cash. But they aren't. So it isn't.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

1.35mil Tuesday. I'm guessing there was some Canadian holiday that helped the films on Monday.

Days of Future Past is getting really strong reviews so far, it's going to be so interesting to see how that film effects TASM 2 in North America and China.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

1.35mil Tuesday. I'm guessing there was some Canadian holiday that helped the films on Monday.

Victoria Day is always the Monday before our Memorial Day.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

all the villains being from oscorp isn't a bad thing at all, infact this is what marc webbs world is... its a grounded world which has been pulled into fantasy, where things shouldn't exist but because of oscorp they do, its oscorp thats creating these villains

this world isn't just spider-man gets bitten gains spider powers, elsewhere something happens to a guy and he gains sand powers, and elsewhere a man gets stuck in a robotic rhino suit, elsewhere a man gains electric powers ect ect

Although i can see Oscorp being completely destroyed in TASM3 in a final battle

I'm with on all the villains coming from Oscorp not being a bad thing, but it's not working in this franchise. The Spectacular Spider-man cartoon made it work. Having someone commission Oscorp to create the villains. The Amazing franchise is just a series of accidents at Oscorp though and it's not working as well. Although lack of development on the villains doesn't help.

It doesn't get anymore interesting than the Sinister 6. If they fail with that in TASM 3 then the franchise should rest for a decade or so. Franchise fatigue is killing Spider-Man's image.

It's not franchise fatigue, it's people realizing they're being sold a crappy product. X-Men DOFP will be a great indicator for this, it should have a lot of franchise fatigue at this point. I'm guessing it'll be pretty big though, FOX tarnished the franchise with X3 and X Origins Wolverine, they've spent two movies now though, rebuilding the brand and I think it'll show.

 

[Wildcard]

1.35mil Tuesday. I'm guessing there was some Canadian holiday that helped the films on Monday.

Days of Future Past is getting really strong reviews so far, it's going to be so interesting to see how that film effects TASM 2 in North America and China.

I'm expecting Days of Future Past to steal what's left of TASM 2's audience. Its legs are already weak, & another strong, well reviewed superhero movie opening is going to cripple it entirely.

It's a shame to see Spider-Man performing so pitifully at the box office when he was once the King in terms of the superhero genre.

How the mighty have fallen indeed...

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I'm expecting Days of Future Past to steal what's left of TASM 2's audience. Its legs are already weak, & another strong, well reviewed superhero movie opening is going to cripple it entirely.

It's a shame to see Spider-Man performing so pitifully at the box office when he was once the King in terms of the superhero genre.

How the mighty have fallen indeed...

Even the biggest names can't withstand a series of bad films. Batman couldn't either.

 

[TalismanRing]

#s from a poster at B.O.com of market totals after comparable number of weekends.

As of Sunday ASM2 is currently running -$56.4m Domestic and +$13.8m O/S in it's 12 biggest markets vs ASM1.

OS Weekends from top 12 markets (# w/e)

ASM1 (2012) / ASM2 (2014)

Australia: 17.9 / 14.5 (5)
Brazil: 24.2 / 22.0 (3)
China: 48.8 / 80.9 (2)
France: 17.9 / 20.4 (3)
Germany: 17.6 / 15.6 (5)
Italy: 12.6 / 12.7 (4)
Japan: 32.9 / 25.3 (4)
Mexico: 28.2 / 27.9 (5)
Russia – CIS: 21.6 / 20.7 (4)
South Korea: 35.4 / 33.6 (4)
Spain: 10.9 / 8.3 (5)
United Kingdom: 39.0 / 38.9 (5)
O/S Total: 307.0 / 320.8

U.S. 228.6 / 172.2 (3)

 

[TalismanRing]

"I suppose this is what happens when you cross fan art with social commentary. I came up with the idea for this gag illustration after watching “The Amazing Spiderman 2″ on opening weekend, but only just now got around to finishing it. It pretty much summarizes how I felt about the new franchise, the larger Marvel cinematic universe and the realities of binding contracts."

Ouch! I just love my boy Iron Man with the shades flying in the back.

Awwww... poor Spidey.

Is Cap giving the Hulk a noogie?

 

[samsnee]

It's crazy to think how long people anticipated this movie and less than a month after opening, it's already been dismissed by most of the public.

 

[Iceman]

Ha, that picture's awesome. Yeah, poor Spidey.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Victoria Day is always the Monday before our Memorial Day.

Oh thanks for the info.

It's crazy to think how long people anticipated this movie and less than a month after opening, it's already been dismissed by most of the public.

It is ashame.

 

[Mandon Knight]

It's crazy to think how long people anticipated this movie and less than a month after opening, it's already been dismissed by most of the public.[/QUOTE

...because its god awful and the trailers papered over the cracks, Webb lost last say on his edit of final cut, the studio screwd him over (again) as they did Raimi and it's just a mess of a film... deserves too do badly, it's a horrible film....

 

[AF3619]

It's crazy to think how long people anticipated this movie and less than a month after opening, it's already been dismissed by most of the public.

Ha, that picture's awesome. Yeah, poor Spidey.

yeah, such a shame that the movie i was looking for the most might end up the worse CBM this year,not bad (imho) but not good enough...

 

[sf2]

IF they can reach $200m DOM BO than Sony will be counting their blessings and I'm assuming they are probably going to have to resort to a few tricks to fudge or bump it up there

are you joking?
SR opened with only <60m and ended at 200m. and you said that TASM2 opened with 94m and can't end at 200m??? u r bad in math.

 

[TH29]

just checked times, only 4 showings a day at my main theater 2 3d and 2 2d. damn... :/

 

[JKKS085]

are you joking?
SR opened with only <60m and ended at 200m. and you said that TASM2 opened with 94m and can't end at 200m??? u r bad in math.

Are you joking ? SR opened on a wednesday. The comparision is both stupid and completely invalid. You can't even compare week days because SR is a summer release (but if you do then SR did way better on its third tuesday than TASM).

The fun part, and this is where you can actually make an intelligent comparision between the two film, is that WB had to give SR hell of a push to have it gross past 200M which it did on october 2006 after 116 days and Sony might need to resort to the same cheap tricks to get to that milestone too.

The point is, best case scenario now TASM 2 lands anywhere between 200M and 205M, worst case scenario DOFP and Maleficient worsen the already steep drop, the movie makes less than 200M and the studio will to give it a push to get to that mark.

 

[JOE]

are you joking?
SR opened with only <60m and ended at 200m. and you said that TASM2 opened with 94m and can't end at 200m??? u r bad in math.

Are YOU joking?

SR opening with <60M and ending at 200M does not mean anything that opens with 60M+ is a shoe in for 200M.

It's about the legs, not being good or bad in math.

 

[LizardMan07]

I suppose they could release an extended version in theatres to recoup another 20 million or something. Not my idea, someone on these boards suggested it as a possibility first

 

[JOE]

I'm with on all the villains coming from Oscorp not being a bad thing, but it's not working in this franchise. The Spectacular Spider-man cartoon made it work. Having someone commission Oscorp to create the villains. The Amazing franchise is just a series of accidents at Oscorp though and it's not working as well. Although lack of development on the villains doesn't help.



It's not franchise fatigue, it's people realizing they're being sold a crappy product. X-Men DOFP will be a great indicator for this, it should have a lot of franchise fatigue at this point. I'm guessing it'll be pretty big though, FOX tarnished the franchise with X3 and X Origins Wolverine, they've spent two movies now though, rebuilding the brand and I think it'll show.

So the steady decline in DOM box office from the 1st Spidey all the way to the 5th is just a coincidence? Having 5 Spider-Man movies in 12 years is a lot of Spidey.

 

[Erzengel]

Are YOU joking?

SR opening with <60M and ending at 200M does not mean anything that opens with 60M+ is a shoe in for 200M.

It's about the legs, not being good or bad in math.

Doing a $1 mil yesterday and today and possibly $10-$11 mil over the memorial day weekend through monday is probably a conservative view. So it may be a slow crawl to $200 million.

Meanwhile X-Men: DOTFP is 95% positive out of 58 reviews. It might take a good chunk of TASM2's numbers.

I suppose they could release an extended version in theatres to recoup another 20 million or something. Not my idea, someone on these boards suggested it as a possibility first

They usually release a movie when it makes already a s' lot of money already. They add additional scenes to get people in. I don't recall ever rereleasing a movie to try to recoup losses.

 

[LizardMan07]

Also, gotta feel sorry for spidey, looks like it's been wedged in between two high quality CBM'S

CA:TWS was basically 90, DOFP could stay around that 90 mark. Add a good comedy to that and an angry lizard making his re-emergence into theatres and you can see why spidey hurt so much.

Obviously WOM was the biggest thing though

 

[Erzengel]

First week of May and 3rd week of May from what I remember are probably the best movie slots you can get but you still have to be a decent movie or at least extremely popular.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

So the steady decline in DOM box office from the 1st Spidey all the way to the 5th is just a coincidence? Having 5 Spider-Man movies in 12 years is a lot of Spidey.

It isn't because there are too many Spider-Man movies though. It is because there are too many bad Spider-Man movies.

Harry Potter had eight in that span and never experienced fatigue. Iron Man is about to have his fifth in seven years next year and people still want to see it.

Also look at Batman and X-Men. In both cases they started off well. Then they started making bad movies (Shumacher Bat films, Last Stand & Origins) and people left. Then they started making good movies again and people came back. This is not coincidence.

The 'fatigue' is entirely quality related.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

are you joking?
SR opened with only <60m and ended at 200m. and you said that TASM2 opened with 94m and can't end at 200m??? u r bad in math.

I was going to respond to this but you're argument has already been destroyed by two other posters with facts just like the ones I know when I originally posted my comment. So yes, Sony will be lucky if they can manage to crawl to $200m DOM BO. Has nothing to do with math and everything to do with this films WOM and the legs that have shown to be weak as all get out