The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[spiderman2]

You realise if this concept of zero franchise fatigue were true nearly every successful film in history could keep spawning out sequels for all time and be successful as long as the films were good. We could be onto Jaws 85 & Ghostbusters 58 etc. Why has that not happened?

Because after a while you are going to run out of ideas and the movies are going to be bad. Form what I have heard jaws 3 was tearable and ghostbusters 2 was a lot worse then the first one. If jaws was still goo people wouldn't care if you where on 100 or jaws 2 People don't get tired of something if it is good it is when the product gets worse. That is different then franchsie fatigue. Its about quilty. People don't get tired of the NFL or nba or stuff like that. If people just got tried of seeing the same thing then sports would have issue to. If franchsie fatuie was such a issue hollwold would come out with more new ideas yet in the past like 10 years the 10 like top boxoffice movies ever year are sequls reboots or remakes. Look this year we have captain America 2, Godzilla, plant of the appes, DOFP, asm2, transformers 4 those are all sequls or remakes or reboots and they are probly going to all be top 10 in box office movies for the year.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

You realise if this concept of zero franchise fatigue were true nearly every successful film in history could keep spawning out sequels for all time and be successful as long as the films were good. We could be onto Jaws 85 & Ghostbusters 58 etc. Why has that not happened?

The Jaws sequels were awful with each one worse than the one prior. It killed the franchise.

We would have had more Ghostbusters films but Bill Murray wouldn't do it. And there is no Ghostbusters without him.

 

[Iceman]

While I would say that frachise fatigue is only like 5% of the reason where quilty of the movies is like 60% of the reason and the other 35% being that people wanted a spider man 4 and most people think that sam rami spider man movies are a lot better. Quile frankly if batman had the noal ones first and then after we had the type of batman we had with batman and batman returns and batman forever and batman and robin I think we would have the same issue has we have with spider man now has the first seiars would be consider superior to the second sieras of movies.

The gap was key though. Not enough people would have given Batman Begins a chance after Batman & Robin if it had come out too close to it. When people are tired give them a break and then come back firing all cylinders later.

I think if this was as much off a problem has people think that people would get tired of spider man comics to has it is the same main thing yet they don't. Spider man could have a movie ever year and if they where consider good or even great people would conitue to go and see them.

The comics are read only by Spider-man fans who will watch every film even if a new one comes out every 2 weeks. When we're talking fatigue we're not talking hardcore fans. We're talking the general audience of people who don't care that much about films in the 1st place. Those are the people who start dropping out in the later stages. Nearly all the people on this site will see TASM2 & 3 & 4 at some stage (even if not in cinema) no matter how much they complain about reviews etc so you have to think like an average audience member who is not particularly interested in Spider-man but sees the 1st few because they are huge films if you want to understand why these things often taper off. It becomes harder to keep them with every new film and you need to keep improving even though the originality and novelty of your story is long gone.

 

[spiderman2]

The Jaws sequels were awful with each one worse than the one prior. It killed the franchise.

We would have had more Ghostbusters films but Bill Murray wouldn't do it. And there is no Ghostbusters without him.

That is kind of what is happening with the spider man franchise now. SM 1 was consider great and 2 even better but then 3 was consider way way worse and then asm1 was consider better but not way better and did the orgin over again and then asm2 was consider worse then all of them.

 

[spiderman2]

The gap was key though. Not enough people would have given Batman Begins a chance after Batman & Robin if it had come out too close to it. When people are tired give them a break and then come back firing all cylinders later.

The comics are read only by Spider-man fans who will watch every film even if a new one comes out every 2 weeks. When we're talking fatigue we're not talking hardcore fans. We're talking the general audience of people who don't care that much about films in the 1st place. Those are the people who start dropping out in the later stages. Nearly all the people on this site will see TASM2 & 3 & 4 at some stage (even if not in cinema) no matter how much they complain about reviews etc so you have to think like an average audience member who is not particularly interested in Spider-man but sees the 1st few because they are huge films if you want to understand why these things often taper off. It becomes harder to keep them with every new film and you need to keep improving even though the originality and novelty of your story is long gone.

While not a lot of people did give batman beigns a changes has it only made like 360 million compared to dark knight rises billion but batman beigns restored faith in the franchise and that was a key reason why dark knight did so good but that is something that asm1 did not do with spider man. While yeah the hardcore to a point but still if people got that tried of things I still belive that you woudnt have has many sequals and reboots has we have and that comics would suffer more then they do.

 

[Iceman]

Because after a while you are going to run out of ideas and the movies are going to be bad. Form what I have heard jaws 3 was tearable and ghostbusters 2 was a lot worse then the first one. If jaws was still goo people wouldn't care if you where on 100 or jaws 2 People don't get tired of something if it is good it is when the product gets worse. That is different then franchsie fatigue. Its about quilty. People don't get tired of the NFL or nba or stuff like that. If people just got tried of seeing the same thing then sports would have issue to. If franchsie fatuie was such a issue hollwold would come out with more new ideas yet in the past like 10 years the 10 like top boxoffice movies ever year are sequls reboots or remakes. Look this year we have captain America 2, Godzilla, plant of the appes, DOFP, asm2, transformers 4 those are all sequls or remakes or reboots and they are probly going to all be top 10 in box office movies for the year.

I am a film fan and I do not want to see 100 movies about sharks no matter how good they are, even if Jaws himself wins the Best Actor Oscar in every one of them. And I bet millions more feel the same way. The proof is there in what has happened in Hollywood. Long term franchises are great value for studios as they only one need one license, one idea and they can infinitely make money from it. None of them have had regular films over a short space of time except James Bond. Is it because every solo franchise in history aside from Bond wasn't good enough?

 

[spiderman2]

I do think it may have been better if sony did spider man 4 and then reboot or if they reboot but had taken a few more years first. The thing with batman begins was it was fresh where asm1 was to much like spider man 1 because of the orgin. If we saw a batman that did the orgin over again in just a few years emagion what people would be thinking and saying about it.

 

[Iceman]

The Jaws sequels were awful with each one worse than the one prior. It killed the franchise.

We would have had more Ghostbusters films but Bill Murray wouldn't do it. And there is no Ghostbusters without him.

Yes but you'll have to keep going like this for every other film in history if you want to argue the point. t: How many films have there been and how many permanent solo franchises are there that spawn a sequel every 2 or 3 years for good?

 

[spiderman2]

I am a film fan and I do not want to see 100 movies about sharks no matter how good they are, even if Jaws himself wins the Best Actor Oscar in every one of them. And I bet millions more feel the same way. The proof is there in what has happened in Hollywood. Long term franchises are great value for studios as they only one need one license, one idea and they can infinitely make money from it. None of them have had regular films over a short space of time except James Bond. Is it because every solo franchise in history aside from Bond wasn't good enough?

No its because again qulity and being able to still come up with ideas to keep things fresh with out doing the same kind of things over plus some times I am sure they think about doing a remake or sequal but instead they come up with something that they think is different and will be better.

 

[spiderman2]

shoudnt bond be really a big problem then? There has been like 24 bond movies in like 52 years I am sure that is way more then any of franchise has had in that same amont of time prieod.

 

[TH29]

Went and saw it again today for the third time after X-Men. I will say this,everything leading up to the part where Aunt May confronts Peter about his parents, etc is great. After that it kind of hits a lul and really needs more Spider-Man in the middle. Even if it was just a swinging scene to remind us he is there. Yes there is a rushed nature to everything after Peter finds out about his fathers message, and it should have been stretched out to the next movie instead of truncating Electro and Goblin. Electro Spider-man fight should have been longer, no doubt about it. Overall I really do enjoy most the movie and its the truest Spider-Man we have gotten on screen for my money but the secret subway lair stuff grinds the movie to a halt.

 

[Iceman]

While not a lot of people did give batman beigns a changes has it only made like 360 million compared to dark knight rises billion but batman beigns restored faith in the franchise and that was a key reason why dark knight did so good but that is something that asm1 did not do with spider man. While yeah the hardcore to a point but still if people got that tried of things I still belive that you woudnt have has many sequals and reboots has we have and that comics would suffer more then they do.

The only solo comic characters that have been around on film long enough for this to be relevant apart from Spidey are Superman and Batman. Superman's had 2 films since it's original series ended and Batman has terminated its 2nd series. There would be less need for so many reboots if studios weren't worried about people getting tired. Any film that does well has a good chance of a sequel or 2 but beyond that they need to be amazing to keep the audience's interest.

On the other hand If you wait a while and change things up completely like Batman Begins did people will be fine with it. If you relaunch soon after the previous series like TASM after Spidey 3 and then redo the same (origin) story you're exposing your audience to the likelihood of fatigue.

 

[spider-neil]

On the other hand If you wait a while and change things up completely like Batman Begins did people will be fine with it. If you relaunch soon after the previous series like TASM after Spidey 3 and then redo the same (origin) story you're exposing your audience to the likelihood of fatigue.

Agreed, but BB had the advantage of the origin of Batman not being shown before on the big screen. ASM should have skipped the origin entirely as the rebooted Batman movie almost certainly will.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Independent of my dislike of the film from a pure business sense I still think redoing the origin had to be the worst decision Sony ever made. They announced to the audience then and there that they weren't going to do anything new with the new series. I knew it was an awful decision that would bite them in the ass.

 

[Wildcard]

Whats it at now has the movie has been out for like a month and 3 weeks? so I think it is done has movies are normaly in theaters for about a month and a half.

What? No they aren't. The only way a movie is in theaters for merely a month is if it has an abysmal performance.

If movies only stayed in theaters for a month, how would any of these blockbusters or smash hits accumulate that much money? Surely you don't seriously believe everyone sees a movie within just the first month of its release.

So, yeah...that assertion is off....like, way off.

 

[Iceman]

Agreed, but BB had the advantage of the origin of Batman not being shown before on the big screen. ASM should have skipped the origin entirely as the rebooted Batman movie almost certainly will.

Yep, no point repeating the same story, especially not so soon. That's also why it worked not getting an origin of Joker in TDK as that was covered in Batman 89.

 

[spiderman2]

Went and saw it again today for the third time after X-Men. I will say this,everything leading up to the part where Aunt May confronts Peter about his parents, etc is great. After that it kind of hits a lul and really needs more Spider-Man in the middle. Even if it was just a swinging scene to remind us he is there. Yes there is a rushed nature to everything after Peter finds out about his fathers message, and it should have been stretched out to the next movie instead of truncating Electro and Goblin. Electro Spider-man fight should have been longer, no doubt about it. Overall I really do enjoy most the movie and its the truest Spider-Man we have gotten on screen for my money but the secret subway lair stuff grinds the movie to a halt.

I love this movie. The power plant fight was pretty long and sweet almost has good has the train fight form spider man 2. The goblin fight was great because of the intiside with trying to save gwen. I thought the first 3erd was kind of slow second 3erd great and the last 3erd perfect and better then any of the last 3erd in a CBM. I think intreams of the action we needed ether one more fight with electro or the time square fight to be longer. I think I heard that both the goblin fight and time square fight where longer in the ruff cut that teekay saw I wish he would post a comparsion review of the ruff cut and the finaly cut. This is my 4th favorite CBM ever and with what I heard was cut if we had that the movie would maybe even go up to my 3erd favorite CBM ever in stead of 4th.

 

[spider-neil]

I want to state up front that I enjoyed ASM and ASM2 but with that said,
Sony would have been far better served making the parents storyline in one self contained movie. It would have introduced the GA to a new and fresh cast, introduced Oscorp and given the movie more time to flesh out characters especially the villain.
Basically remove the origin and give that screen time to the villain.

In the sequel with the parents storyline out of the way the movie could then have focused on the relationship of Harry and Peter.
Basically move parent storyline to ASM and give that screen time to Max and Harry.

But what's done is done.

 

[spiderman2]

What? No they aren't. The only way a movie is in theaters for merely a month is if it has an abysmal performance.

If movies only stayed in theaters for a month, how would any of these blockbusters or smash hits accumulate that much money? Surely you don't seriously believe everyone sees a movie within just the first month of its release.

So, yeah...that assertion is off....like, way off.

When movies come out I can find showtimes for around a month and a half maybe 2. After 2 months I don't see any theaters around me showing that movie any more plus a very high % of the money movies make is in the first few weeks and captain American has been out for around a month and 3 weeks so I don't see it doing much more. I have noticed a lot of times the theaters around me only do 3d showings for a few week. I found out the theaters around me stop with asm2 3d showing like a week ago already. Frozzen was in theaters around me for like 3 and a half mouths and that was by far the longest I have heard of a movie being in theaters around me.

 

[ironman_rick]

The biggest problem for these ASM movies were that we were promised something....We were promised a spider-man story which was "Never told".

And then the orgins ASM were exactly similar to SM1. .

There is still time to save this franchise. Change the writers and directors and focus more on one movie than trying to build a universe (go the james bond way).


A movie where peter parker gets killed and Miles Morales taking over can be awesome if its done properly. This just an example on how the writers could pen a different story from all the shared universes from marvel, fox and warner bros...

Still time....but Sony has to act now.

 

[spiderman2]

Yep, no point repeating the same story, especially not so soon. That's also why it worked not getting an origin of Joker in TDK as that was covered in Batman 89.

Yeah that is the thing batman begins was a lot different then the other batman's where asm1 was to much like spider man 1 and most people would agree that batman beigns was a much much better movie then asm1 to.

 

[spiderman2]

The biggest problem for these ASM movies were that we were promised something....We were promised a spider-man story which was "Never told".

And then the orgins ASM were exactly similar to SM1. .

There is still time to save this franchise. Change the writers and directors and focus more on one movie than trying to build a universe (go the james bond way).


A movie where peter parker gets killed and Miles Morales taking over can be awesome if its done properly. This just an example on how the writers could pen a different story from all the shared universes from marvel, fox and warner bros...

Still time....but Sony has to act now.

Yeah some one mitched something about doing a movie with lizard and karvin where karvin is trying to hunt down the lizard and spider man gets in the middle of it or something like that witch would be cool to see. Spider man has been around for 52 years and has who knows of many comics to use ideas for storys. Even if you wanted a sinister six movie with fighting spider man if you just did like 6 different spider man movies with storys we havnt seen I am sure that you could then have that with out having to rush things and put like 3 or 4 villians in a movie just to rush for the sinister six team up.

 

[Wildcard]

When movies come out I can find showtimes for around a month and a half maybe 2. After 2 months I don't see any theaters around me showing that movie any more plus a very high % of the money movies make is in the first few weeks and captain American has been out for around a month and 3 weeks so I don't see it doing much more. I have noticed a lot of times the theaters around me only do 3d showings for a few week. I found out the theaters around me stop with asm2 3d showing like a week ago already. Frozzen was in theaters around me for like 3 and a half mouths and that was by far the longest I have heard of a movie being in theaters around me.

That's all pretty relative to which movie we're talking about. If the movie is a success, it'll stay in more theaters for a longer period. If the film is a failure or performs in a mediocre fashion, then they cut down the number of theaters to try to avoid further losses.

Frozen has stayed in theaters so long because it's a MASSIVE success. It crossed the $1 billion threshold, whereas TASM 2 is performing poorly (more or less).

TWS could be in theaters anywhere from another month to another two months or a bit more. Thor's second outing lasted in theaters for about five or six months & considering TWS has been even more successful than that movie I'd say it'll have a similar theater run.

 

[spiderman2]

That's all pretty relative to which movie we're talking about. If the movie is a success, it'll stay in more theaters for a longer period. If the film is a failure or performs in a mediocre fashion, then they cut down the number of theaters to try to avoid further losses.

Frozen has stayed in theaters so long because it's a MASSIVE success. It crossed the $1 billion threshold, whereas TASM 2 is performing poorly (more or less).

TWS could be in theaters anywhere from another month to another two months or a bit more. Thor's second outing lasted in theaters for about five or six months & considering TWS has been even more successful than that movie I'd say it'll have a similar theater run.

While when I said the thing about it being done I was talking about captian America 2 and if it would make more in the usa then asm1 or not. Yeah I now if a movie is still saling tickets it will be in theaters longer but like 90% of the time I see around 1.5-2 months and like I said frozen is the longest I have seen a movie and it was like 3.5 months and I was shocked when I saw that. I love forzzen by the way best Disney movie sences lion king! I have never heard of a movie being in theaters for 5-6 mounths ever. I never new there where dollar theaters in till like 5 months ago though lol. But how much more can a movie make if it is just in dollar theaters and people have already seen the movie and are going on to the next movie or 2 that they want to see? Now I do live in a small town but even movie theaters around a hour form me that are in a much bigger area I have never seen have a movie for more then like 3.5 months.

 

[spider-neil]

Of course we are talking about 'relative' failure here. ASM2 will probably crawl past 700m, so the failure will be it didn't make for than ASM or close in on a billion.
Spidey's problem is franchise fatique. Characters like Thor and Cap are going to get an Avengers boost. X-Men FC felt fresh and the FC cast teaming up with the orignal cast fells like an event movie. Spidey has none of that but despite that Spidey is still making decent numbers but it may well be deminishing returns from here on out unless something changes.

Options;
1. ANOTHER reboot.
Out of the question, that would kill the franchise dead.

2. A list director.
Unlikely to find a director who touch the 6 iteration of a franchise (Bond/Star Wars aside) unless you throw money at them. For example, a Fincher directed Spider-Man movie would make people sit up and take notice.

3. Generate buzz external to the movie.
If Sony made an incredible spin off then people would be excited to see Spidey and said spin off together.

What I will say is I was pretty much done with Bond after the disgraceful QoS which I hated with a passion, but after a long gap of no Bond and hearing Mendes and Dekins were going to be making the new Bond movie I was excited for the franchise again and I think it's safe to say I wasn't alone when you compare QoS box office with Skyfall.