The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The word of mouth is mixed at best. There is no sugarcoating it.

 

[hippie_hunter]

The film had a chance to excite the audience and it didn't. I'm not saying don't love the film but you have to look at the reality of the situation. You don't see me saying that everyone loved Man of Steel just because I did because that would be an untrue statement.

Same with me an Superman Returns. I loved Superman Returns, despite the fact that it had a homewrecker Superman. And it limped to $200 million, something that most movies would love to do and it certainly can't be considered a box office bomb. Most people on the other hand....don't like it and financially, it was disappointing.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Same with me an Superman Returns. I loved Superman Returns, despite the fact that it had a homewrecker Superman. And it limped to $200 million, something that most movies would love to do and it certainly can't be considered a box office bomb. Most people on the other hand....don't like it and financially, it was disappointing.

Of course you know this but it definitely doesn't matter which example was used, some films that you love are going to have a mixed response and there is no use pretending that they didn't to make yourself feel better. Only thing you should be hoping is that it makes enough for a follow up.

Spidey still is making over 700mil so a follow up is coming but nobody should be surprised when the box office numbers continue to decline. Liking a film that gets tons of **** isn't a fun position to be in so I get the frustration.

 

[JKKS085]

Of course you know this but it definitely doesn't matter which example was used, some films that you love are going to have a mixed response and there is no use pretending that they didn't to make yourself feel better. Only thing you should be hoping is that it makes enough for a follow up.

Spidey still is making over 700mil so a follow up is coming but nobody should be surprised when the box office numbers continue to decline. Liking a film that gets tons of **** isn't a fun position to be in so I get the frustration.

Very well put

 

[rayc1971]

Next film likely has 6 villains. How do yo keep the budget at 210 mil? Budget is only going up at this point as we get more villains and Garfield's paycheck goes up.

no it can be done just have kingpin and black cat as your villains they don't need cgi you can get the budget down to 180 to 200mill.the problem is the villains they choose cost too much to soon electro and lizard they should have waited until they built momentum before they went with the expensive villains.look at cap2 the villain was good not expensive the budget was 170mill.i don't think they will allow spidey3 to have a 270 to 300mill budget after this failure

 

[Spider-Fan]

no it can be done just have kingpin and black cat as your villains they don't need cgi you can get the budget down to 180 to 200mill.the problem is the villains they choose cost too much to soon electro and lizard they should have waited until they built momentum before they went with the expensive villains.look at cap2 the villain was good not expensive the budget was 170mill.i don't think they will allow spidey3 to have a 270 to 300mill budget after this failure

That is immaterial because that ISN'T what they're doing! They used the movie to promote the Sinister Six, you think they're just going to abandon that and use Kingpin and Black Cat? Of course not! They're going to move forward with their intention.

 

[XSpidercideX]

I'm not trying to state that the film didn't get mixed opinions, that is obvious. It's just not overwhelmingly negative. In fact, it leans towards positive.

Obviously a lot of people found things to dislike in the movie but MOST people seemed to like more about it than disklike. What I read on this forum makes it seem like the movie was horrible and no one liked it, which is just plain wrong.

All that is certain, is that Sony is going to has their work cut out for them with the next films to get the series back to growing domestically instead of declining... and that it is questionable if they can. It isn't doom and gloom though, it's not impossible. I think they are going to have to make sure the script is something that flows first and formost. I didn't have a problem with the flow of the film, but it seems many did, so that is something that they will have to work on.

 

[XSpidercideX]

That is immaterial because that ISN'T what they're doing! They used the movie to promote the Sinister Six, you think they're just going to abandon that and use Kingpin and Black Cat? Of course not! They're going to move forward with their intention.

TASM3 is not about the sinister six. There are talks of it being about Kraven. In fact, I heard some sinister six members will not even be introduced until that film.

The next film is NOT going to have 6 villians.

 

[rayc1971]

It is strong to support a 210m+ domestic gross over what many people said on this thread about the movie not making it to 200m.

you realize it cost 255mill to make so 210mill is not impressive when the first movie grossed 262mill domestic

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That is immaterial because that ISN'T what they're doing! They used the movie to promote the Sinister Six, you think they're just going to abandon that and use Kingpin and Black Cat? Of course not! They're going to move forward with their intention.

Exactly and their intended film is going to cost nearly 300 million dollars.

 

[rayc1971]

TASM3 is not about the sinister six. There are talks of it being about Kraven. In fact, I heard some sinister six members will not even be introduced until that film.

The next film is NOT going to have 6 villians.

good point a kraven and black cat combo wont cost a lot of money either

 

[XSpidercideX]

you realize it cost 255mill to make so 210mill is not impressive when the first movie grossed 262mill domestic

It's not as impressive but this film will make Sony money. I read that it needs a 660 million WW box office to break even. It will clearly exceed that and then they will have DVD / rental sales, which will be all profit. Most non-superhero / non-box office smash films would be jealous.

It's only not as impressive when you look at the previous films. It is certainly on the decline. They just need to put the budget in check for the next movie to ensure a larger profit.

 

[rayc1971]

It's not as impressive but this film will make Sony money. I read that it needs a 660 million WW box office to break even. It will clearly exceed that and then they will have DVD / rental sales, which will be all profit.

Most films would be jealous. It's only not as impressive when you look at the previous films. It is certainly on the decline. They just need to put the budget in check for the next movie to ensure a larger profit.

yeah I see what you mean but like you said they got to keep that budget in check to salvage the franchise and it can be done I wouldn't mind kraven and black cat in the next one it can be good without all that cji look at winter soldier only cost 170mill

 

[Spider-Fan]

TASM3 is not about the sinister six. There are talks of it being about Kraven. In fact, I heard some sinister six members will not even be introduced until that film.

The next film is NOT going to have 6 villians.

I bet it is going to! Garfield keeps hinting he won't be back for TASM4, and with the BO decline of this one, I bet you Sony takes the bigger approach in order to boost TASM3's BO sales!

Exactly and their intended film is going to cost nearly 300 million dollars.

Easily.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm not trying to state that the film didn't get mixed opinions, that is obvious. It's just not overwhelmingly negative. In fact, it leans towards positive.

Obviously a lot of people found things to dislike in the movie but MOST people seemed to like more about it than disklike. What I read on this forum makes it seem like the movie was horrible and no one liked it, which is just plain wrong.

All that is certain, is that Sony is going to has their work cut out for them with the next films to get the series back to growing domestically instead of declining... and that it is questionable if they can. It isn't doom and gloom though, it's not impossible. I think they are going to have to make sure the script is something that flows first and formost. I didn't have a problem with the flow of the film, but it seems many did, so that is something that they will have to work on.

I'm not saying the film had an Ang Lee Hulk type reception but the reception isn't good and it's not even as good as the last film's. It's mixed.

The question is does Sony even know what the problem is, are they going to hire a good screenwriter to rewrite whatever script they have lying around? I don't have faith they do.

Did Orci and Kurtzman write the 3rd film as well?

 

[rayc1971]

I bet it is going to! Garfield keeps hinting he won't be back for TASM4, and with the BO decline of this one, I bet you Sony takes the bigger approach in order to boost TASM3's BO sales!



Easily.

greenlighting a 300mill budget that would be insane more villains is not the answer can you imagine how much doc ock and vulture will cost

 

[XSpidercideX]

I bet it is going to! Garfield keeps hinting he won't be back for TASM4, and with the BO decline of this one, I bet you Sony takes the bigger approach in order to boost TASM3's BO sales!

The Sinister Six is a seperate spin off film. They would be insane to do that before seeing how TASM3 does. Also, I think they should do Venom first to see how a spin off can do.

 

[Spider-Fan]

greenlighting a 300mill budget that would be insane more villains is not the answer can you imagine how much doc ock and vulture will cost

I can, and the budget won't be in check.

The Sinister Six is a seperate spin off film. They would be insane to do that before seeing how TASM3 does. Also, I think they should do Venom first to see how a spin off can do.

They keep saying the Sinister Six film will be about bad guys and redemption. By definition, you need to be redeemed for something. I don't think a redemption film, and then using them as villains in TASM4 works. Especially if they lose Garfield. I see no way the SS are not done next movie.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

It's funny how different opinions are on this film. I've seen it 5 times at the theater and it is still my favorite Spider-man movie. Everyone I've taken with me loved it. My wife has even saw it 3 times and she said she may want to go see it again. 3 out of 5 times there was applause at the end of the film.

Don't get me wrong, I know a very FEW people who enjoyed the film but I don't know anyone that paid money to see it more than once. Pete's characterization was the only thing, IMO, that they got right. I have over 1,000 FB friends and not many posted they were taking the fam or friends to go see it on OW and I haven't seen anybody say anything about it since OW. Godzilla on the other hand has been blowing up in my feed all weekend, of course I'll have to wait to see if the trend continues

It's still the best data we have on the film. Its not bad by any means. For example, Godzilla is almost already as low as TASM2 and it has half the ratings. It's possible that TASM2 could be higher rated and have better reception than Godzilla by the General Audience, and it is just overrated by critics.

See my previous statement^
And it is possible that it's pretty front loaded but we wont know till next weekend and the of course DOFP opens which will hurt G and Spidey

It's not as impressive but this film will make Sony money. I read that it needs a 660 million WW box office to break even. It will clearly exceed that and then they will have DVD / rental sales, which will be all profit. Most non-superhero / non-box office smash films would be jealous.

It's only not as impressive when you look at the previous films. It is certainly on the decline. They just need to put the budget in check for the next movie to ensure a larger profit.

Again you're forgetting that Sony would much rather have a large chunk of that be from the DOM BO since that is where they take the most profit from. the OS markets take huge chunks out of their profits so I would imagine it needs much more than what you quoted once you tally up the budget and marketing cost. China for instance takes 50% of the profits right off the bat and I believe their cut goes up the longer it's in the theater as is done in the states as well, and then once 30 days hit in China it's a wrap.

 

[XSpidercideX]

I can, and the budget won't be in check.



They keep saying the Sinister Six film will be about bad guys and redemption. By definition, you need to be redeemed for something. I don't think a redemption film, and then using them as villains in TASM4 works. Especially if they lose Garfield. I see no way the SS are not done next movie.

The Sinister Six is a seperate spin off film, like Venom, which are both scheduled to come out before TASM4. TASM4 has nothing to do with Sinister Six.

 

[XSpidercideX]

Again you're forgetting that Sony would much rather have a large chunk of that be from the DOM BO since that is where they take the most profit from. the OS markets take huge chunks out of their profits so I would imagine it needs much more than what you quoted once you tally up the budget and marketing cost. China for instance takes 50% of the profits right off the bat and I believe their cut goes up the longer it's in the theater as is done in the states as well, and then once 30 days hit in China it's a wrap.

So do domestic theaters. Thats why the rule of thumb to break even you look at WW box office and double the production budget. Because foreign and domestc take about 50% profit. So 255 x 2 = 510, then add marketing and promotion loss. An article calculated about 660 million WW for break even. Since the film will easily exceed 700 million WW, the movie will make well over 100 million after DVD sales and rentals, easily.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The Sinister Six is a seperate spin off film, like Venom, which are both scheduled to come out before TASM4. TASM4 has nothing to do with Sinister Six.

And this is confirmed where exactly? Where does it say anywhere TASM3 aor TASM4 won't feature the Sinister Six? Answer: nowhere. The fact that the Sinister Six is a spin-off film does NOT mean that they won't be in either TASM3 or TASM4 (as Sony intends currently). Just like me, it is an assumption that they won't happen.

I see no way TASM3 won't be about the SS especially when they used TASM2 as a commercial for it.

 

[rayc1971]

The Sinister Six is a seperate spin off film. They would be insane to do that before seeing how TASM3 does. Also, I think they should do Venom first to see how a spin off can do.

if they go all out sinister six next movie they might as well sell to marvel they wont have to worry about spidey 4.the fact that these movies have bigger budgets than the avengers is insane

 

[XSpidercideX]

And this is confirmed where exactly? Where does it say anywhere TASM3 aor TASM4 won't feature the Sinister Six? Answer: nowhere. The fact that the Sinister Six is a spin-off film does NOT mean that they won't be in either TASM3 or TASM4 (as Sony intends currently). Just like me, it is an assumption that they won't happen.

I see no way TASM3 won't be about the SS especially when they used TASM2 as a commercial for it.

The official word from the Studio is that not all villians in the Sinister Six film will have been introduced before that movie. They intend to introduce at least a couple in that movie.

Also, the official word is they have not decided what TASM4 will be yet. Although I have a feeling it will likely follow up on the Venom film more likely than the sinister six. That is the safer bet for the studio. Avi Arad loves Venom too.

They are doing a Venom spinoff to set him up for TASM4 most likely.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The Sinister Six is a seperate spin off film, like Venom, which are both scheduled to come out before TASM4. TASM4 has nothing to do with Sinister Six.

That's insane. Nobody wants to see a Sinister Six movie. They want to see a Spider-Man movie where he fights the Sinister Six.

That's like doing a Lex Luthor movie and leaving out Superman.

No way that doesn't tank.