The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Question is now will the international market save TASM3 again? If the international market made $100m less for this movie then it would have been a bust even at $600m. Can TASM3 pull in $500m from the overseas markets like this movie did? Because I don't see it doing much better domestically, they'd be lucky to get a lateral movement.

"Much better domestically," sir it is a lock to make less domestically. The next film will be very, very lucky to crack 175mil. I'm thinking 155mil right now.

 

[Liam_H]

ASM3 doesn't have a great release date. It has 3 pretty anticipated CBM before it in May and two pretty anticipated animations in the week after. I'm pretty sure one from each group will be moving eventually but still.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

"Much better domestically," sir it is a lock to make less domestically. The next film will be very, very lucky to crack 175mil. I'm thinking 155mil right now.

It will have a better hold with good reviews, but I think it will make less regardless.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It will have a better hold with good reviews, but I think it will make less regardless.

No matter what it is definitely making less.

As for the reviews, anything is possible. Sony better be getting someone to rewrite that Orci and Kurtzman pinned script though.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

It's pretty much a guarantee that the next film will continue the demise of the franchise. If people think 2012 was an ugly bloodbath, just watch what happens in 2016 when BvS and Age of Apocalypse reduce TASM 3 to ashes.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Don't forget Captain America 3.

 

[Wildcard]

Haha, yeah, Spidey's about to get his ass handed to him royally...well Godzilla technically already did that. BvS, CA 3 & AoA are about to just scatter the remains across the universe.

I honestly think this is all further proof that somehow some way, eventually those rights are going back to Marvel. At the rate they're going, I can't imagine Sony holding on to it for much longer.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Don't forget Captain America 3.

For sure, I just assume that BVS will move to a June or July release and TASM 3 will be surrounded by AoA and BvS. Either way you cut it each of the first three films will be seen as an afterthought compared to other films in the genre. A pretty miserable legacy.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

No matter what it is definitely making less.

As for the reviews, anything is possible. Sony better be getting someone to rewrite that Orci and Kurtzman pinned script though.

It will go down regardless, but it will go down more if it sucks. That's basically what I'm saying.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Haha, yeah, Spidey's about to get his ass handed to him royally...well Godzilla technically already did that. BvS, CA 3 & AoA are about to just scatter the remains across the universe.

I honestly think this is all further proof that somehow some way, eventually those rights are going back to Marvel. At the rate they're going, I can't imagine Sony holding on to it for much longer.

You'd like to think (hope) so, but this studio is in serious denial it seems. We'll know for sure in the coming months if major changes aren't announced. I'd wager that everything goes ahead as planned.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It will go down regardless, but it will go down more if it sucks. That's basically what I'm saying.

Oh I don't disagree.

Speaking of the competition in 2016, what on earth can Sony do to compete with The first live action big screen team up of Superman and Batman (and Wonder Woman), Cap 3, which will be coming off of Avengers 2 and the very well received Winter Soldier and Age of Apocalypse, which brings one of comicdoms best villains to the big screen?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

600-700 m is still alot of money.

Theoretically, if Sony could get the marketing and production budget under control then they could be happy with that amount assuming ASM3 doesn't nosedive below that.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Oh I don't disagree.

Speaking of the competition in 2016, what on earth can Sony do to compete with The first live action big screen team up of Superman and Batman (and Wonder Woman), Cap 3, which will be coming off of Avengers 2 and the very well received Winter Soldier and Age of Apocalypse, which brings one of comicdoms best villains to the big screen?

Absolutely nothing. That's the problem moving forward, the franchise is alone on an island. Even if they move the date to 2017, 18 or 19 etc, It'll likely be up against an MCU juggernaut or a highly anticipated DC universe startup. There is no place to hide.

 

[KangConquers]

if they go all out sinister six next movie they might as well sell to marvel they wont have to worry about spidey 4.the fact that these movies have bigger budgets than the avengers is insane

The Avengers budget has come under some scrutiny. Variety for instance, claimed that the production budget of Avengers was $300 M and the P&A budget was $175 M. Even though $220 M is the official budget, I've seen "At least $260 M", and "$300 M" in print as well.

That said, even if Variety is right on Disney dropping almost $500 M on Avengers, it did 3 times that at the box office, which makes the production costs justified. I wouldn't be surprised if Avengers 2's budget is officially listed in the $250-300 M range.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

600-700 m is still alot of money.

Theoretically, if Sony could get the marketing and production budget under control then they could be happy with that amount assuming ASM3 doesn't nosedive below that.

Yeah but how are they going to lower the budget exactly? I know it's not really your job to know the answer but sequel budgets rarely go down and judging by the excessive marketing of the previous two films Sony has pretty much shown that that is just how they like to market this franchise.

 

[Peydro Parker]

Sony should really consider moving the release date to 2017 or fall/winter 2016. Between Cap 3, BvS and Apocolypse, Spidey is gonna get lost in the shuffle.

 

[Bruce Malone]

600-700 m is still alot of money.

Theoretically, if Sony could get the marketing and production budget under control then they could be happy with that amount assuming ASM3 doesn't nosedive below that.

TASM 2 was supposed to be the film that cemented spider-man back as a dominant property.

The excuse for TASM was that it was the necessary reboot pic that had to establish things and that's why its returns weren't on the raimi level.

With everything they put into TASM 2 and it most likely making less money than TASM, I can't see what can be done for TASM 3 to prevent another slide?

 

[XSpidercideX]

"Much better domestically," sir it is a lock to make less domestically. The next film will be very, very lucky to crack 175mil. I'm thinking 155mil right now.

I find it hard to believe a Spider-man movie could go that low. There is a bottom line to a character like Spider-man, it's not like it could theoretically continue a downward trend forever or it would go negative.

The lower the box office gets, the more hard and unlikely it will be to go lower. There is a bottom end "floor". The bottom end with absolutely no hype may be about 150 million, but it may be extremely improbable to ever go that low unless it litteraly does everything wrong and is absolutely horrible.

Any amount of hype will edge it up above that bottom end. If the next movie gets a fresh rating with the critics, it may very well get about the same as this one.

Also, this movie had the misfortune of being the first Rotten Spider-man. People will likely choose not to go to the theater for that very reason and wait for a rental. For all the people who end up liking the film, that "rotten" stigma will not have as much power in the future. Like for Transformers, every film was rotten, so no one really cares, because the fans enjoy it anyway. If the next movie gets rotten, all the fans who liked this one won't care anymore, so they'll see it anyway.

 

[Erzengel]

TASM 2 would have to pull a Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol shift if you remember the hit Mission Impossible 3 took after Cruise "jumped on the couch". Even now with the exception of Ghost Protocol, Cruise's domestic numbers have taken quite a hit. Yet Cruise still does decent number overseas. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if Edge of Tomorrow makes about $100 million only domestically.

But back to point, it's not entirely impossible for TASM 3 to turn it around but they have try and streamline the story.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I find it hard to believe a Spider-man movie could go that low. There is a bottom line to a character like Spider-man, it's not like it could theoretically continue a downward trend forever or it would go negative.

The lower the box office gets, the more hard and unlikely it will be to go lower. There is a bottom end "floor". The bottom end with absolutely no hype may be about 150 million, but it may be extremely improbable to ever go that low unless it litteraly does everything wrong and is absolutely horrible.

Any amount of hype will edge it up above that bottom end. If the next movie gets a fresh rating with the critics, it may very well get about the same as this one.

Also, this movie had the misfortune of being the first Rotten Spider-man. People will likely choose not to go to the theater for that very reason and wait for a rental. For all the people who end up liking the film, that "rotten" stigma will not have as much power in the future. Like for Transformers, every film was rotten, so no one really cares, because the fans enjoy it anyway. If the next movie gets rotten, all the fans who liked this one won't care anymore, so they'll see it anyway.

There were plenty of people who said that TASM wouldn't gross under 300mil because Spidey is so popular and there were plenty of people saying that TASM 2 wasn't going to go as low as box office mojo's 225mil prediction because Spidey is so popular and now this new film is looking at 215mil at best.

There is no magical limit to how far this franchise could fall. The Spider-Man name and more expensive tickets have not stopped these declines at all. I don't see how you can't see it going that low when it's trending to go that low (definitely 175mil).

TASM dropped 22% from Spider-Man 3's gross and TASM 2 is looking to drop 18-20%.

If they stop the slide it won't be with the 3rd one because they have to gain back the audiences trust. The 4th film is the one that would benefit from good reviews and word of mouth from the previous film.

 

[Erzengel]

^
There are exceptions like I mentioned with Mission Impossible 3 to Ghost Protocol. But the reviews for GP were pretty high (93%).

There's also something similar to what you stated with Batman and Robin to Batman Begins to TDK.

Either way TASM 3 would have to be better than both 1 and 2 and on the level of the first 2 Raimi movies.

 

[XSpidercideX]

There were plenty of people who said that TASM wouldn't gross under 300mil because Spidey is so popular and there were plenty of people saying that TASM 2 wasn't going to go as low as box office mojo's 225mil prediction because Spidey is so popular and now this new film is looking at 215mil at best.

There is no magical limit to how far this franchise could fall. The Spider-Man name and more expensive tickets have not stopped these declines at all. I don't see how you can't see it going that low when it's trending to go that low (definitely 175mil).

I disagree. There is a limit. A movie can't make 0 dollars. Spider-man is a well known and beloved character. The name commands millions of dollars. We don't know what the limit is, but it can only drop so low before it bottoms out. The downward trend cannot continue forever.

What is the smallest opening weekend for a Spider-man movie that could reasonably happen? IDK maybe 50 million?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

There is no need to exaggerate, noone said zero dollars.

I have no idea what the smallest opening weekend for a Spider-Man movie could be but Sony is rearing to find out if the series stays on it's current path.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I find it hard to believe a Spider-man movie could go that low. There is a bottom line to a character like Spider-man, it's not like it could theoretically continue a downward trend forever or it would go negative.

The lower the box office gets, the more hard and unlikely it will be to go lower. There is a bottom end "floor". The bottom end with absolutely no hype may be about 150 million, but it may be extremely improbable to ever go that low unless it litteraly does everything wrong and is absolutely horrible.

Any amount of hype will edge it up above that bottom end. If the next movie gets a fresh rating with the critics, it may very well get about the same as this one.

Also, this movie had the misfortune of being the first Rotten Spider-man. People will likely choose not to go to the theater for that very reason and wait for a rental. For all the people who end up liking the film, that "rotten" stigma will not have as much power in the future. Like for Transformers, every film was rotten, so no one really cares, because the fans enjoy it anyway. If the next movie gets rotten, all the fans who liked this one won't care anymore, so they'll see it anyway.

Those fans you speak of are dropping like flies. What is so difficult to grasp here? The franchise is a lost cause at Sony and they've missed the target on three straight films. There is also competition in the genre now, vastly superior competition with a ton of momentum. Spider-Man has none, zilch, ZERO. The Transformers comparison is also irrelevant because each film in the series has roughly grossed 200 m more then the previous one. They may be poor quality but there is a definite momentum box office wise. Spider-Man is in a tailspin.

 

[sf2]

You're right, my mistake.



I'm not spinning nothing. It's a fact.

The movie is near the top both internationally and domestically, it's going to be a financial success ranking amongst the top of 2014.

This thread is about the box office of this movie for this year.

Comparisons to past movie performances and growth or shrinkage of the franchise over time is another matter.

u r right. TASM2 is still making a lot of money. though it is much lower than our expectation.