The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Considering it will be a miracle if this thing can get over $700m WW I would say Sony's dreams are basically crushed

 

[Orba]

You keep acting like the overseas markets are saving this film and that is not the case. One of it's biggest markets is China and right off the bat China takes 50% of the profit that Sony would see and each week their cut goes up. That's not too mention similar deals across the world in other markets. So while the WW looks big it is actually much lower profit wise for Sony. Add to that TASM2 is about to lose it's china screens to DOFP this weekend and Spidey is going to be in a pretty bad spot come this weekend.

Its not 50% that China takes, its 75%, so thats only a 25% cut that the Sony will get. It used to be only 12-17% that studios got but that changed a few years back at the same time as China started allowing more Hollywood films. There was a dispute last year with China trying to put a 2% tax on the studio's cut.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-07-30/why-china-is-hoarding-hollywoods-box-office-profits

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Well either way those big numbers in China are basically just for show since Sony hardly gets anything from it. There are posters here that like to spout off these huge overseas numbers like Sony is rolling in it when that is wrong.

Sony would take a $250m DOM BO over a $700m-ish WW any day of the week and it doesn't seem like that will happen anytime soon

 

[Arach Knight]

Makes you wonder what their bottom # would have been if $1b was their goal. Probably $850m.

You know, the real issue is that the stated production budget rarely includes marketing costs. So this film is said to have cost $250 million to produce. But then advertising could be anywhere from $100-150 million. So this film nearly costs $400 million. Then you have the way theatrical revenue sharing works. Studios (distributors) split part of the box office receipt with the theater itself. So even if a film makes say $500 million at the box office, it isn't as if the studio makes all of that money for itself, even without tax considerations. Now, Hollywood is notorious for creative book keeping that tends to exaggerate these realities, but it is still a larger hurdle than people think for a film to actually be successful.

 

[Spiderine]

The most substantial problem with the film's domestic failures is that it was supposed to lay the foundation for expansion sequels and spinoffs. They were investing in the bigger picture. Not only that but this film sets up something unique in the direction it was going. You don't all of a sudden start Maximum Carnage/Kraven Last Hunt story lines for the next film. The main story or theme is the ongoing Gustav/Harry, Uncle Ben unresolved death and Sinister Six setup. We were already teased with that. Do you all think it should just be dropped?

More importantly was Norman Osborn who was clearly being prepped for something bigger. They are basically stuck here.

 

[Erzengel]

Which is why Avengers works so well. Look how they even get that done with after scene credits. After almost every movie they have something leading into a future movie but aren't handcuffed with one character.

 

[Iceman]

Only team films are really suited for a permanent rotation of a film every few years as they can keep bringing in new main characters (and replace old ones if necessary) so each film features a different combination. Much easier to keep things fresh and dynamic. If you want to try it with a solo character you have to reinvent every new phase of films and make it markedly different from what has gone before. It's not enough to just change actors.

 

[Erzengel]

Well except for X-Men who can't seem to do a movie without Wolverine.

 

[Iceman]

Well except for X-Men who can't seem to do a movie without Wolverine.

They've focused on him too much to the point that now audiences won't want to see a film without him. He is of course one of the best characters but the strength of team films has never been based on one member. It's going to be hard to phase Wolverine out at this stage so they have to put a lot more effort into the other main characters going forward. At least Xavier & Magneto are getting a big focus too now.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Only team films are really suited for a permanent rotation of a film every few years as they can keep bringing in new main characters (and replace old ones if necessary) so each film features a different combination. Much easier to keep things fresh and dynamic. If you want to try it with a solo character you have to reinvent every new phase of films and make it markedly different from what has gone before. It's not enough to just change actors.

Well one thing myself and JKKS085 suggested would be to course correct with this film and go the Shattered Dimensions Route and introduce multiple alternate realities. That way you could have several ongoing Spider-Man franchises that could reinvigorate the GA while at the same time giving ole Petey a much need break. They could have a SM 2099, Miles Morales, and TASM franchises at the very least.

Use the next film to introduce the Sinister 6 and have their ultimate goal have something to do with altering reality for whatever purpose and by doing so it completely screws up the universe. Then Pete gets introduced to Madame Web and she sends him on missions to course correct everything while also introducing the new characters kind of similar to part of the old animated series.

I haven't fleshed out all the details in my head and this would probably be too big to do budget-wise since it would basically turn the next film into a life or death situation with Sony but I'm sure if you got the right people on it they could accomplish it. I just don't see the current path they are on to lead to the future they want

 

[JKKS085]

Well one thing myself and JKKS085 suggested would be to course correct with this film and go the Shattered Dimensions Route and introduce multiple alternate realities. That way you could have several ongoing Spider-Man franchises that could reinvigorate the GA while at the same time giving ole Petey a much need break. They could have a SM 2099, Miles Morales, and TASM franchises at the very least.

Use the next film to introduce the Sinister 6 and have their ultimate goal have something to do with altering reality for whatever purpose and by doing so it completely screws up the universe. Then Pete gets introduced to Madame Web and she sends him on missions to course correct everything while also introducing the new characters kind of similar to part of the old animated series.

I haven't fleshed out all the details in my head and this would probably be too big to do budget-wise since it would basically turn the next film into a life or death situation with Sony but I'm sure if you got the right people on it they could accomplish it. I just don't see the current path they are on to lead to the future they want

If they use that concept and Spider-Man Noir isn't part of it that would be the ultimate fail.

The idea of alternate realities would bring something fresh to the franchise and someting fresh is what it sorely needs. You could make a 2099 Spider-Man set in a dystopian high-tech future to explore sci-fi concepts and vilains, a mob-driven Spider-Man Noir film set during the great depression with Kingpin as the main vilain (and maybe someone else than Parker as Spider-Man though) and a Miles Morales story which could be a grittier/realistic take on the spiderverse (if they keep on with the lighter tone for the TASM franchise) maybe with a spy/conspiracy-spin to the story and a big government organization that could stand up for SHIELD. There you have different films, different tones, different perspectives, new characters, new settings and if everything goes well, if the characters are liked enough you can even do a big crossover. Seems much more exciting to me than vilains spin-offs.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I certainly don't want Sony to go belly-up or continue to struggle going forward, that wouldn't be a good thing for the industry. But I hope these results make them strongly consider their association (or options) with this character moving forward. Poor creative decisions and oversaturation of the brand in general have made the franchise passe for many fans and moviegoers. There are better choices available to consumers now and they want to get rid of the old jalopy and test drive all the shiny new cars on the market. When competing with the monolithic, ever-expanding MCU and soon-to-be DCCU on the horizon, anything they do going forward will seem small and insignificant by comparison. It seems inevitable what has to happen here. I think from this point forward it's just band-aid solutions.

 

[Erzengel]

I'm of the opinion that a lot of these studio heads are out of touch and think oh Spider-Man and special effects = good movie.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

That seems to be the case.

 

[Spiderine]

Make a Spiderman movie and they will come and we will make lots of money. I bet every stockholder was grinning from ear to ear at the thoughts of many spinoffs and sequels making Avenger like money.

 

[Erzengel]

Sony wanted to copy Disney's game plan. 6 upcoming Star Wars films and 11 and counting Avengers movies.

Let's do a prequel involving Ben and May Parker.

 

[Krystal]

Domestic box office adjusted for inflation

Spider-man............$503 million
Spider-Man 2..........$478
Spider-Man 3..........$389
ASM....................<$285---(it's not in top 200 all-time which ends at $285 million)
ASM2...................less than $220 for sure


ANYBODY who says these numbers are not disastrous is a liar.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

There are a few people trying to spin it as a positive but I think they just don't want to face reality. I know Sony isn't loving those numbers and I'm sure they would be over joyed if they got to $220m which I seriously doubt it has the legs to accomplish. Funny how the BO thread has become the place for reality whereas the gen discussion thread is full of people thinking their fave franchise is making tons of money

 

[Tim_Riggins]

The performance has been disappointing for sure, Sony will just have to find a different approach on the next one. Thing is also, the legs are just not good overall, it got some stellar debuts in many overseas countries, especially Asia, but then it crashed (except in China overall it seems).

We can talk about the reviews all day long, but there's just something else at play here, they need to make Spidey attractive to the GA audience again. How? No idea.

 

[Erzengel]

Domestic box office adjusted for inflation

Spider-man............$503 million
Spider-Man 2..........$478
Spider-Man 3..........$389
ASM....................<$285---(it's not in top 200 all-time which ends at $285 million)
ASM2...................less than $220 for sure


ANYBODY who says these numbers are not disastrous is a liar.

Right now ASM2 is $30 million behind TWS comparing their first 18 days of release. So that puts them at about $220 IF they kept up with TWS. But if you look closer at the numbers after 14 days, ASM2 was only $20 million behind TWS. That means in 4 days they dropped another $10 million.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

IF they can reach $200m DOM BO than Sony will be counting their blessings and I'm assuming they are probably going to have to resort to a few tricks to fudge or bump it up there

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

they need to make Spidey attractive to the GA audience again. How? No idea.

I'd bet Sony is asking the same question and have no answers, at least the ones they want to acknowledge.

 

[Iceman]

Well one thing myself and JKKS085 suggested would be to course correct with this film and go the Shattered Dimensions Route and introduce multiple alternate realities. That way you could have several ongoing Spider-Man franchises that could reinvigorate the GA while at the same time giving ole Petey a much need break. They could have a SM 2099, Miles Morales, and TASM franchises at the very least.

Use the next film to introduce the Sinister 6 and have their ultimate goal have something to do with altering reality for whatever purpose and by doing so it completely screws up the universe. Then Pete gets introduced to Madame Web and she sends him on missions to course correct everything while also introducing the new characters kind of similar to part of the old animated series.

I haven't fleshed out all the details in my head and this would probably be too big to do budget-wise since it would basically turn the next film into a life or death situation with Sony but I'm sure if you got the right people on it they could accomplish it. I just don't see the current path they are on to lead to the future they want

Miles Morales could be interesting. I'm not really keen on the 2099 comic but a film might be better. I'll be impressed if Sony can come back from this as I think they're in a difficult situation now even if they start doing all the right things from this point on.

 

[Iceman]

Sony wanted to copy Disney's game plan. 6 upcoming Star Wars films and 11 and counting Avengers movies.

Let's do a prequel involving Ben and May Parker.

Romcom or hardcore?

Sony's got the right plan, they just need a lot more character licenses.

 

[Erzengel]

2099 maybe a better story for a cable series.