The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Mace Dolex]

But if the character has no value to Sony, that hurts Disney/ Marvel. How is Disney supposed to keep Spidey's status as the number one licensed super-hero in the world if he is crashing and burning at the box office?

Giving Spidey's back to Disney/Marvel can give some hope that Disney/Marvel can do SM right, also like many other threads here have stated Disney would be smart to "retire" SM from the general audience for awhile until it's gotten a solid writing/directing team behind it.

 

[Krystal]

Giving Spidey's back to Disney/Marvel can give some hope that Disney/Marvel can do SM right, also like many other threads here have stated Disney would be smart to "retire" SM from the general audience for awhile until it's gotten a solid writing/directing team behind it.

Exactly, they wait till current and future franchises have run their course and then bring him back with a really solid SCRIPT that is compelling enough to make the audiences forget what came before after it's 20 minutes into the story.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I do as well. A friend of mine literally argued with me about that. "These movies are about the stacys. They're about the stacys! Uncle Ben didn't even say with great power comes great responsibility in the comics!"

I'm sorry but that just bothered me. Maybe if he had started these films out as Spider-Man already and he had already gone through what he needed to go through with Uncle Ben I probably wouldn't have been bothered as much, but the way it is now it seems that both Richard Parker and Captain Stacy mean more than Uncle Ben and that will never be okay to me.

It doesn't help that I don't find those characters to be particularly compelling.

 

[LEVITIKUZ]

I don't think the problem is that there is too much Spidey. It's just too much of the same. All of the villains (apart from Venom) have been involved are created by Oscorp or created.

Green Goblin - Oscorp
Doc Ock - While working for Oscorp
Harry Goblin - Oscorp stuff created him
Sandman - Some company doing stuff
Lizard - Oscorp related
Electro - Oscorp related
Rhino - Oscorp related
Kid Goblin - Oscorp related

I feel if I was Disney, I would do my first Spider-Man film based more off the Ultimate Spidey with MJ first and all and have Kingpin and the Enforcers of the Ultimate universe (who were led by Electro) as the first villains. Take Spider-Man to a more crime drama like place.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

But if the character has no value to Sony, that hurts Disney/ Marvel. How is Disney supposed to keep Spidey's status as the number one licensed super-hero in the world if he is crashing and burning at the box office?

Given both Sony's and the franchise's vulnerability, now is an excellent time for Marvel to cut another favorable deal with the studio - one that wouldn't cut Sony in on MCU profits.

You'd like to think so.

The question then becomes what is the amount required to make Sony exit stage left? Do we know what Disney paid for the merchandising ancillary rights a few years back? A pipe dream most likely, but you'd have to think Sony is sobered by the B.O. returns and in a pretty vulnerable place at the moment. If I were Disney I'd be picking up the phone and calling Sony right now and If I were Sony I'd be happy to listen. It will be interesting to see how much revenue they generate off this film when all is said and done.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I think the best move would be to make a deal similar to Indiana Jones where Sony gets a certain percentage of box office grosses in future films without having to put up any risk.

Marvel would be insane to do that. Sony needs Spidey in the MCU not the other way around. Giving Sony anything more than 1% of the profits would be a mistake since Marvel has already proven they can make a billion dollars without Spidey. Marvel will wait for Sony to crash and burn and get the charcter outright or not at all IMO

But if the character has no value to Sony, that hurts Disney/ Marvel. How is Disney supposed to keep Spidey's status as the number one licensed super-hero in the world if he is crashing and burning at the box office?

Given both Sony's and the franchise's vulnerability, now is an excellent time for Marvel to cut another favorable deal with the studio - one that wouldn't cut Sony in on MCU profits.

The only way I see that happening is if Sony basically lets Marvel use him for free and has Marvel fix their problems in the Sony franchise. Neither studio will agree to that. It's much easier for Marvel to let Sony sink in it's own stupidity because even if Sony finally realizes the Spider-Man franchise is worthless to them it doesn't mean it's worthless to Marvel. Marvel can get the rights back, retire the character for a time so audiences have the chance to get the tast out of their mouth and then bring him back with a soft reboot into the MCU. No matter how bad Sony does Marvel can always fix him given time

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

It's much easier for Marvel to let Sony sink in it's own stupidity because even if Sony finally realizes the Spider-Man franchise is worthless to them it doesn't mean it's worthless to Marvel. Marvel can get the rights back, retire the character for a time so audiences have the chance to get the tast out of their mouth and then bring him back with a soft reboot into the MCU. No matter how bad Sony does Marvel can always fix him given time

The only thing I'd say to that is the further Spidey's stock drops at Sony the longer Marvel will likely have to wait to incorporate him into the MCU. Eventually Iron Man, Cap and Thor will have to take a back seat to newer properties and although Marvel has had the midas touch in turning franchises into gold (for the most part), it would certainly be nice to have Spider-Man waiting in the wings and take center stage if all else fails.

 

[Iceman]

Just like at the school dance, all the hot girls have been taken.

Even if they weren't taken Sony would have no luck. After news of their last performance gets out, all the girls will know Sony has lost it between the sheets.

Sony & FOX will thankfully never get any more characters. The mouse wants their **** back

Noone will ever get any more characters. DC/WB have theirs. Marvel/Disney are slowly clawing them back. I think F4 has a great chance of returning to the fold soon and that's one that is important for the universe. Spidey never seemed too be at risk until I saw this film but now you never know.

It's become clear to me that if Sony is going to get this franchise back on track, they will need Disney/Marvel's help. And they may get it - Disney makes hundreds of millions annually from licensing of Spider-Man consumer products, and having their headline character relegated to "B" level status is bad for business. If Disney/Marvel received certain considerations - use of the character in Avengers films, a firm future reversion date - a deal could be made.

I like the idea of a "Spider-Man and the Defenders" team-up movie after the Netflix shows air, but Spidey's inclusion into the MCU via a Coulson or Fury cameo could pay off as well. Though Arad may pitch a fit, bringing Spidey into the Marvel mainstream is Sony's best chance to right this ship.

Sony wouldn't want a reversion date. That cuts off most of the value of their asset if it isn't perpetual. I think Marvel seem to be preferring to play hardball. They aren't marketing their own characters that have films coming out on their websites from other studios (like DOFP), just the MCU ones. I think they'd rather hold out for Sony to be in a situation where they feel forced to sell the rights back rather than help them in any way.

If Marvel ever do get the rights back I don't think they'll put out a solo film for a fair while to let the damage heal like after Batman & Robin & before Begins. I could see his 1st appearance be a very quick cameo with a witty one liner in one of their other projects just to establish that this Spidey is definitely connected to them now. That could be as exciting and as good a piece of marketing as the Twin Towers ad for Spidey 1 if done well.

Unfortunately for Sony, Marvel is unlikely to sell any more film rights for their characters to other studios . Spidey, X-men, etc... were licensed because Marvel was inches away from going out of business and needed the fast cash, but now, they are the second coming of pixar under Disney, and have no need to sell anymore character film rights to anyone since they could keep all of the profit if they made the movies themselves.

Yep.

The Spider-Man franchise has plenty of characters, the problem is how Sony are using them. They are so desperate to have their own film universe and get to the Sinister Six that they are throwing away good stories. For example it now seems that Doc Ock didn't make his mechanical arms, they came from Oscorp (unless they use the 'Oscorp employee gets powers from experiment/accident and goes on rampage' storyline for a third time). They need to take their time with stories.

There's plenty of good stories to tell. Sony have to have learned by now that they can't afford bad films. I thought TASM was ok for a franchise reboot (even it came out years too early). Spidey 3 though killed the momentum of the Raimi films and now TASM2 has stunted that of the reboot. You don't get many chances with a solo franchise. If their next film is no improvement the **** will really hit the fan at Sony Pictures.

 

[Iceman]

Giving Spidey's back to Disney/Marvel can give some hope that Disney/Marvel can do SM right, also like many other threads here have stated Disney would be smart to "retire" SM from the general audience for awhile until it's gotten a solid writing/directing team behind it.

Exactly, they wait till current and future franchises have run their course and then bring him back with a really solid SCRIPT that is compelling enough to make the audiences forget what came before after it's 20 minutes into the story.

Spidey could launch a new phase...say Phase 4 after Avengers 3. And A3 I think will be a phase to end the 1st trilogy of phases so it will be a big turning point for the universe. What better than an after credits cameo by Spidey at the end of A3, right after all the Thanos dust has settled, to launch his own film and send the MCU into orbit.

 

[Spooderman]

I don't think the problem is that there is too much Spidey. It's just too much of the same. All of the villains (apart from Venom) have been involved are created by Oscorp or created.

Green Goblin - Oscorp
Doc Ock - While working for Oscorp
Harry Goblin - Oscorp stuff created him
Sandman - Some company doing stuff
Lizard - Oscorp related
Electro - Oscorp related
Rhino - Oscorp related
Kid Goblin - Oscorp related

Actually, considering the symbiote is in the possession of OsCorp you can add Venom to that list.

Although we haven't seen Sandman in this series, and I don't know who is "Kid Goblin" (you already mentioned Harry)

Kid Goblin is Harry in TASM2. He sure as hell isn't the Green Goblin.

Then why did you list "Harry Goblin" and "Kid Goblin"?

How about Morbius?

Of course something pushing past a PG-13 rating would scare most Sony executives.

Just use the sucker palms.

I HUNGER FOR PLASMA!!!​

 

[LEVITIKUZ]

Kid Goblin is Harry in TASM2. He sure as hell isn't the Green Goblin.

 

[Tymminator]

I think he was simply posting both Harry's, so kid-Goblin is the Harry from ASM2.

Edit:Levi beat me to it.

 

[LEVITIKUZ]

Harry Goblin is Franco. I used both Raimi and Webb series foes as examples.

 

[Spiderine]

He wasn't a goblin was he? I thought he was a leprechaun? Are you guys sure? LOL

 

[Raiden]

He wasn't a goblin was he? I thought he was a leprechaun? Are you guys sure? LOL

I thought he was Hobgoblin, but I never bothered to look it up. Actually, on second thought, Harry was more like a surf dude than a Goblin in SM3.

 

[Wildcard]

Harry's glider & suit was way more badass than what Norman had in the first film. Haven't ever really understood the problem some have with it, I thought it worked just fine.

 

[bapi]

Usually you need production + marketing budget x 1.75 - that's around 770 millions for ASM2. But I can't imagine more then 700-720.

 

[HarryOsborn]

I don't think the problem is that there is too much Spidey. It's just too much of the same. All of the villains (apart from Venom) have been involved are created by Oscorp or created.

Green Goblin - Oscorp
Doc Ock - While working for Oscorp
Harry Goblin - Oscorp stuff created him
Sandman - Some company doing stuff
Lizard - Oscorp related
Electro - Oscorp related
Rhino - Oscorp related
Kid Goblin - Oscorp related

I feel if I was Disney, I would do my first Spider-Man film based more off the Ultimate Spidey with MJ first and all and have Kingpin and the Enforcers of the Ultimate universe (who were led by Electro) as the first villains. Take Spider-Man to a more crime drama like place.

The last thing I'd want is a spider-man crime drama. I want more emotional life lessons. Disney has some solid writers that have made grown men cry watching cartoons, we need people like that for spider-man.

 

[HarryOsborn]

It's become clear to me that if Sony is going to get this franchise back on track, they will need Disney/Marvel's help. And they may get it - Disney makes hundreds of millions annually from licensing of Spider-Man consumer products, and having their headline character relegated to "B" level status is bad for business. If Disney/Marvel received certain considerations - use of the character in Avengers films, a firm future reversion date - a deal could be made.

I like the idea of a "Spider-Man and the Defenders" team-up movie after the Netflix shows air, but Spidey's inclusion into the MCU via a Coulson or Fury cameo could pay off as well. Though Arad may pitch a fit, bringing Spidey into the Marvel mainstream is Sony's best chance to right this ship.

Disney/Marvel has a new poster boy- Iron Man. Heck Caps climbing up there too these days. Marvel will wait for spidey to fizzle out. Fox might be able to keep x-men going for awhile, but really they have their own universe of characters anyway. Fiege isn't scared of putting Cap against BvS, clearly he's not one for negotiations. Avi Arad has made his Lone Ranger, and one can only hope sony boots him the way Disney kicked bruckheimer.

 

[JOE]

Crossing the 700M line will be a relief for TASM 2, it could have been a lot worse. Thankfully the OS carried the BO.

 

[LEVITIKUZ]

The last thing I'd want is a spider-man crime drama. I want more emotional life lessons. Disney has some solid writers that have made grown men cry watching cartoons, we need people like that for spider-man.

When I say crime drama I mean focus away from Oscorp and focus on Kingpin or Hammerhead for the first film. Have them have the Enforcers and have Captain Stacy involved. Spidey can work well with that. We will have emotional life lessons of course.

 

[Arach Knight]

Disney/Marvel has a new poster boy- Iron Man. Heck Caps climbing up there too these days. Marvel will wait for spidey to fizzle out. Fox might be able to keep x-men going for awhile, but really they have their own universe of characters anyway. Fiege isn't scared of putting Cap against BvS, clearly he's not one for negotiations. Avi Arad has made his Lone Ranger, and one can only hope sony boots him the way Disney kicked bruckheimer.

Marvel can't bank on those two for that much longer. Both Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans have given statements that effectively express that they will be stepping away from these characters once their contractual obligations are fulfilled. The reasons of course are different, but still yield the same result.

RDJ simply recognizes that he is getting too old for the role. Chris Evans no longer wishes to act and is transitioning his career from in front of the camera, to behind the camera: Evans wishes to direct and produce films rather than star in them. Evans has explicitly stated that once he finishes his contract with Marvel, he is retiring from acting. He has already completed most of his contract with two Captain America films and an Avengers film. I believe he is obligated to appear once more in a third Captain America and two more Avengers movies.

Also, once Marvel has the rights for Spider-Man, I am sure they will get to work with employing a strategy similar to what they worked out with Universal for The Incredible Hulk. Rather than having to fully reboot the character, they will simply introduce the existing take on the character into the MCU.

 

[Arach Knight]

Crossing the 700M line will be a relief for TASM 2, it could have been a lot worse. Thankfully the OS carried the BO.

As of May 19th (three days ago) the film has been sitting at $634 million. And no, $700 million won't be a relief. As it stands, this movie needs $119 million just to match the first films box office take of $752 million. That is already proving to be a huge hurdle for this film, as it is continuing to see a reduced number of screens, first from Godzilla, this week from Days of Future Past and next week, by Maleficent. The chances of this film even having a comparable performance to the first film are slim. And while reaching $700 million will likely secure a third film and a second chance to launch a Sinister Six spin off, $700 million is $300 million below what Sony told investors this film would make, which means that this film will cause Sony to take a hit.

 

[HarryOsborn]

When I say crime drama I mean focus away from Oscorp and focus on Kingpin or Hammerhead for the first film. Have them have the Enforcers and have Captain Stacy involved. Spidey can work well with that. We will have emotional life lessons of course.

Okay I picturing more daredevil/batman wearing a spidey suit when you said that. I'd be on board with your idea.

My ideal reboot would be to have Norman working with miles warren and auto Octavious to make cross species hybrids work (Norman motivated by his wife's death) and the mob (silvermane) wanting to use them for unstoppable thugs. All the while make it a teen dramady between the social outcast Peter and his unwitting popular friend Harry.

It sounds ver villain heavy, but as long as there's not a bunch of lone wolfs (sm3, ams2) and they all are just facets of a singular evil entity (cap2) then it would work well.

 

[LEVITIKUZ]

I can't picture Osborn being motivated by his wife's death. Osborn doesn't care about anyone but his company.