The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[spiderman2]

Of course we are talking about 'relative' failure here. ASM2 will probably crawl past 700m, so the failure will be it didn't make for than ASM or close in on a billion.
Spidey's problem is franchise fatique. Characters like Thor and Cap are going to get an Avengers boost. X-Men FC felt fresh and the FC cast teaming up with the orignal cast fells like an event movie. Spidey has none of that but despite that Spidey is still making decent numbers but it may well be deminishing returns from here on out unless something changes.

Options;
1. ANOTHER reboot.
Out of the question, that would kill the franchise dead.

2. A list director.
Unlikely to find a director who touch the 6 iteration of a franchise (Bond/Star Wars aside) unless you throw money at them. For example, a Fincher directed Spider-Man movie would make people sit up and take notice.

3. Generate buzz external to the movie.
If Sony made an incredible spin off then people would be excited to see Spidey and said spin off together.

What I will say is I was pretty much done with Bond after the disgraceful QoS which I hated with a passion, but after a long gap of no Bond and hearing Mendes and Dekins were going to be making the new Bond movie I was excited for the franchise again and I think it's safe to say I wasn't alone when you compare QoS box office with Skyfall.

When will people get that it is not franchsie faugite it is medicor movie faugit that is all.

 

[spider-neil]

When will people get that it is not franchsie faugite it is medicor movie faugit that is all.

I say that because SM3 did big numbers despite poor reviews (or rather mixed reviews) so basically on the back of SM2 people went to see SM3 so reviews don't matter as much as some people make out. Look at Transformers for example.

 

[spiderman2]

I say that because SM3 did big numbers despite poor reviews (or rather mixed reviews) so basically on the back of SM2 people went to see SM3 so reviews don't matter as much as some people make out. Look at Transformers for example.

Transformers is a exception and kind of like you said SM3 and the buzz that SM 2 created and if sm3 had lived up to the hype it would have made even more. ASM was a reboot so it had no hype like sm2 created for sm3 and asm2 came after asm witch was consider ok so again it had no hype like sm3 did back when it came out. Even the new xmen had hype created by FC has FC did really while.

 

[spider-neil]

Transformers is a exception and kind of like you said SM3 and the buzz that SM 2 created and if sm3 had lived up to the hype it would have made even more. ASM was a reboot so it had no hype like sm2 created for sm3 and asm2 came after asm witch was consider ok so again it had no hype like sm3 did back when it came out. Even the new xmen had hype created by FC has FC did really while.

I personally think there is franchise fatique and I think it will take more than good reviews to get past it. As you say the movie needs hype and not the hype gained from good reviews. Avengers is going to make a ton of making regardless of reviews.

 

[spiderman2]

I personally think there is franchise fatique and I think it will take more than good reviews to get past it. As you say the movie needs hype and not the hype gained from good reviews. Avengers is going to make a ton of making regardless of reviews.

Yeah but good or even great reviews creats more hype has a lot of GA wont see a movie with bad reviews and avengers 2 has hype because of avengers 1 and iron man and captian America. Also the better a movie is recived the more people will see the movie more then once in theaters witch helps the movie make more and more money. I think if we where to get 2 really good or even great spider man movies in a row spidy would be back. People don't trust that spider man is going to be good right now. If the next spider man was really good that would help bring people back and then would creat more buzz for the next one after that if it looks good to. What spider man needs is a batman begins movie and then a dark knight movie after that so that people will trust spider man again and fell like they have to see it again.

 

[Frodo]

I personally think there is franchise fatique and I think it will take more than good reviews to get past it.

I also think there's franchise fatigue and there's clearly a creative fatigue among the crew and Sony. They need a break. For the most part they've been going non stop for a decade basically covering the same ground i.e over and over again. Yes, there are exceptions to every rule, and we can point to other franchises, but we're talking about this franchise, which to me is tired. I think they really need to let the audience hunger for Spiderman again.

 

[Donut]

I'm guessing Sony is gonna have to use their own money to get this to over $200 Million Domestically. As its run as probably done now

 

[Iceman]

I'm guessing Sony is gonna have to use their own money to get this to over $200 Million Domestically. As its run as probably done now

What pack out all the theatres with their own employees? Those poor guys. They'd probably rather go to work than get a day off having to do that. t:

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's looking at another 50+% drop for the 3 Day unless it has a really great Saturday increase.

 

[Donut]

What pack out all the theatres with their own employees? Those poor guys. They'd probably rather go to work than get a day off having to do that. t:

They gotta make this look good for the DVD & Blu-Ray Commercials after all.

The $200 Million Dollar Smash Hit sounds better then The $190 Million Dollar Smash Hit

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It should be at around 187mil after the 4 Day Holliday weekend is up and near 190mil before Friday. I think it's going to crawl to 200-207mil right now. It really depends on how it performs the rest of this Holliday of course.

 

[JKKS085]

It's looking at another 50+% drop for the 3 Day unless it has a really great Saturday increase.

It's dropping even harder than last saturday (-56,1% instead of -54.6%), it's facing obviously tougher competition (DOFP is unlikely to have a similar drop on Saturday than Godzilla last week end) so Yeah I think 50%+ drop for the 3 days is pretty much a given at this point.

It keeps on tanking harder than Spider-Man 3. At this point I'm pretty sure a final 2.23 multiplier is out of reach and I don't think it'll reach 205M.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

When will people get that it is not franchsie faugite it is medicor movie faugit that is all.

The two go hand in hand. Audiences generally don't reject tentpole franchises if the films are continually at a high level. Once you lose quality control they are damn hard to win back. It takes an extraordinary set of circumstances.

 

[Erzengel]

Has there been a tentpole movie that was critically acclaimed but didn't do well?

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Has there been a tentpole movie that was critically acclaimed but didn't do well?

I can't think off the top of my head, but I'm sure there are examples. Probably films that didn't have a large built in fanbase but moreso the studios desire to create a tentpole based on the potential of the concept and/or genre.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's dropping even harder than last saturday (-56,1% instead of -54.6%), it's facing obviously tougher competition (DOFP is unlikely to have a similar drop on Saturday than Godzilla last week end) so Yeah I think 50%+ drop for the 3 days is pretty much a given at this point.

It keeps on tanking harder than Spider-Man 3. At this point I'm pretty sure a final 2.23 multiplier is out of reach and I don't think it'll reach 205M.

The Spider-Man 3 comparison is just so perfect because Spider-Man 3 had the same release date, bad or mixed word of mouth and tough competition. TASM 2 is following it's path and actually doing a little worse. I suppose you are correct, TASM 2 could easily have a worse multiplier than SM3 and end with less than 205mil.

 

[Iceman]

It's quite a shame as I like the leads in this and thought I was going to enjoy this film.

 

[starkresilient]

Has there been a tentpole movie that was critically acclaimed but didn't do well?

does x-men first class count? because its BO was kinda bad

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's quite a shame as I like the leads in this and thought I was going to enjoy this film.

I know Sony has to make a film every couple of years to keep the movie rights, that's the reality and it won't change, but Sony can still try to make better films or films that connect with more people if they get serious.

They do have good actors and I'm not a fan of director but fine keep him but they need to do something new and drastic like other franchises are. And no I don't mean Sinster 6, I just don't think the studio and creatives know how to handle villains well enough to pull that off.

I don't know what their angle could be but they need to think of one, get a good and coherent screenplay together and shoot that. No more outrageously expensive reshoots that reshapes the film. And how about Sony gives the creatives a little more leeway for once, the micromanaging reshoot everything way is not working.

 

[BlackFox]

does x-men first class count? because its BO was kinda bad

Probably the best example.

 

[X Knight]

The Spider-Man 3 comparison is just so perfect because Spider-Man 3 had the same release date, bad or mixed word of mouth and tough competition. TASM 2 is following it's path and actually doing a little worse. I suppose you are correct, TASM 2 could easily have a worse multiplier than SM3 and end with less than 205mil.

the one thing SM3 had helping it that TASM 2 doesn't have is that SM3 came off the widely-acclaimed and successful SM2.

whereas TASM 2 followed the divisive TASM, which was already the least successful of the Spidey films, BO-wise.

now it looks like TASM 2 might perform worse than TASM.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The other thing that helped SM3 is that it wasn't released overseas two weeks earlier. WOM didn't really kick in until after a big opening weekend.

ASM2 didn't just have bad legs (like SM3) and have less interest in the first place because it wasn't following a really popular film like SM2 (unlike SM3), but also because there were two weeks for poor reviews and poor WOM to spread from overseas.

 

[Donut]

& the bootleggs that got online early did not help either

 

[rayc1971]

its going to get over 200 around 205 to 210mill witch is no milestone when it cost 250mill I don't know how they will shell out a 300mill budget for the next one if they had venom or dr ock or vulture

 

[rayc1971]

I would go small in the next one with kraven and blackcat keep the budget down to around 190mill and win fans back with a good story