The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Kahran Ramsus]

& the bootleggs that got online early did not help either

True. Opening overseas first backfired big time.

 

[Venom75]

The other thing that helped SM3 is that it wasn't released overseas two weeks earlier. WOM didn't really kick in until after a big opening weekend.

ASM2 didn't just have bad legs (like SM3) and have less interest in the first place because it wasn't following a really popular film like SM2 (unlike SM3), but also because there were two weeks for poor reviews and poor WOM to spread from overseas.

I also think Spidey 3 had the black suit and Venom. Two things that were new and that most really wanted to see. The hype for part 3 was huge beause of that. ASM 2 didn't really have anything new or fresh in that regard.

 

[Iceman]

I also think Spidey 3 had the black suit and Venom. Two things that were new and that most really wanted to see. The hype for part 3 was huge beause of that. ASM 2 didn't really have anything new or fresh in that regard.

I think Electro's powers looked cool and quite different to previous villains from trailers. Just a shame what they did with the character.

 

[Donald Thomas]

the one thing SM3 had helping it that TASM 2 doesn't have is that SM3 came off the widely-acclaimed and successful SM2.

whereas TASM 2 followed the divisive TASM, which was already the least successful of the Spidey films, BO-wise.

now it looks like TASM 2 might perform worse than TASM.

Aloha,
Here's a great comparison of ALL of the Spidey movies from box office mojo. Take into account that TASM2 has been out 22 days.I'm seeing more American fanboy fatigue than franchise fatigue.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=spidermanvs.htm
Spidey rules

 

[KangConquers]

So will this beast break $700 M?

 

[Atharun]

Has there been a tentpole movie that was critically acclaimed but didn't do well?

Batman Begins started the Bale "Era" and only made 374 million. It was reviewed pretty well and both sequels made over a bil.

 

[Atharun]

So will this beast break $700 M?

I think so. It has only been in theaters for what 3 weeks? Movies do last longer than that guys. Just because they are on fewer screens doesn't mean a movie disappears after a month. The movie will prob end at around 700 mil after a few weeks of a slower trickle. Eventually dollar theaters or smaller town budget theaters that show the movie a little bit after the initial release will push it ever so slightly. Plus with this being a 3 day weekend, some people will be playing "catch up" to see the movies they missed.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Begins did well enough for its budget and expectations. Post B&R Batman was almost DOA as a movie property so the expectation for Begins weren't sky high. Also its budget was only 150 million.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think so. It has only been in theaters for what 3 weeks? Movies do last longer than that guys. Just because they are on fewer screens doesn't mean a movie disappears after a month. The movie will prob end at around 700 mil after a few weeks of a slower trickle. Eventually dollar theaters or smaller town budget theaters that show the movie a little bit after the initial release will push it ever so slightly. Plus with this being a 3 day weekend, some people will be playing "catch up" to see the movies they missed.

It's making 700mil because of it's international performance.

 

[Spiderine]

Batman had no where to go but up. After a well received movie they were bringing in his biggest most well known enemy......the Joker.

 

[samsnee]

It's making 700mil because of it's international performance.

Which doesn't help Sony because the get less percentage of the gross from international.

 

[JKKS085]

It's making 700mil because of it's international performance.

I am anxiously waiting for this week/week end's international numbers but I think there's a decent chance now, with DoFP and Godzilla hitting hard worldwide and Spider-Man close to its final numbers on most markets (it's been out 6/7 weeks almost everywhere) that it doesn't hit 500M overseas. And if it doesn't then it won't probably won't reach 700M WW.

The economic prospects for TASM3 are just dreadful (at this point it could very well be the first Spider-Man film not hitting 600M WW).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yep it really depends on how well it held up this week internationally. Again I'm not an expert on the overseas market so I usually read boxoffice.com's forums to get a feel on how well a film is doing. TASM 3 is I think going to start an overseas decline. I don't know about less than 600mil it should be comfortably under 700mil next time. They better start being careful with that budget.

I just noticed that this Summer is going about as well as everyone thought it would, which means it's been pretty mediocre overall. Spidey is in the Toilet, Godzilla just dropped 67% because of X-Men and because it pissed people off and X-Men is performing like an X-Men movie which is good but not great. It's nice to see the overseas market expand though.

 

[GuestStar2004]

The next film needs more story and less set up, keep the human side to it all and look more into that and make it all about Peter Parker, put him front and centre, give a very emotional epic final battle

Sony need to be less confident about the product and not try and copy other franchises poorly, bigger won't always automatically mean better and trying to sneak the Raimi films feel back in won't bring an audience back either

I don't know but I think a kraven story could be very good in terms of story

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

TASM 2 grossed an estimated 7.8mil for the 3Day. That's a 53.6% drop which is yet another drop that's worst than Spider-Man 3.

 

[ironman_rick]

$185M DOM
$489M OS

$674M WW

Another $26M to go for salvation for TASM2...

 

[chaseter]

This movie has no salvation domestic wise.

 

[Erzengel]

I said it before does surpassing 700 million give TASM 2 some sort of moral victory?

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I said it before does surpassing 700 million give TASM 2 some sort of moral victory?

Since last we heard it needs $750 million to break even, I'm going to say 'no.'

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Surpassing the first film's 752mil gross would give it a moral victory but I don't see that happening right now. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

I don't deny that the international numbers are great and I'm sure Sony is happy with those numbers as they should be but the domestic numbers are bordering on disastrous. This was supposed to be their mini The Dark Knight, meaning the domestic numbers were supposed to grow as well as the international numbers after rebooting. Instead it's only making what it's making overseas because of China and it's tanking here in the states. I use tanking because making 50mil less than the budget is not good.

 

[Spider-Ock]

Surpassing the first film's 752mil gross would give it a moral victory but I don't see that happening right now. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

I don't deny that the international numbers are great and I'm sure Sony is happy with those numbers as they should be but the domestic numbers are bordering on disastrous. This was supposed to be their mini The Dark Knight, meaning the domestic numbers were supposed to grow as well as the international numbers after rebooting. Instead it's only making what it's making overseas because of China and it's tanking here in the states. I use tanking because making 50mil less than the budget is not good.

How much do you think its final gross will be?

 

[JKKS085]

I said it before does surpassing 700 million give TASM 2 some sort of moral victory?

755M would give it some sort of "moral" victory allowing it to break even during the course of its theater run and surpass the first movie's WW gross. That wouldn't be still good enough given the amount of money invested in the project but Sony would be able to save face with these numbers.

Anything under 700M WW would be a freakin' disaster, just like anything under 200M domestically.

Given that the international growth for this film is solely dependent on the mechanical growth of the chinese market I don't see these numbers as an improvement either (and they are far from what Sony expected in the event of TASM2 grossing above a billion). The franchise is showing a steady decline on most historical markets despite more favorable circumstances (mainly more favorable exchange rates due to the lower dollar). It's not a US problem only as some would have us believe.

 

[Spiderine]

Maleficent comes out next weekend to do further damage. Crawling on its knees to do 200 million.

 

[JKKS085]

TASM 2 grossed an estimated 7.8mil for the 3Day. That's a 53.6% drop which is yet another drop that's worst than Spider-Man 3.

A 205M finish domestically is slowly fading away. If it drops another 50% next week end things are going to get really interesting.

If estimates hold the movie is now 1.8M behind Thor The Dark World and it'll likely stay behind it after Memorial Day.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

How much do you think its final gross will be?

In North America 203-205mil, overeas I see it finishing with 525-530mil.

I think it's going to have another 50% drop next weekend by the way. Spider-Man 3 dropped 50% the comparable weekend and TASM 2 dropped an estimated 53.6%, the weekend after M-Day SM3 dropped 47% so I see this 3% trend continuing which would lead. to a 50% post M-Day weekend.