The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[GuestStar2004]

Since last we heard it needs $750 million to break even, I'm going to say 'no.'

At the very most it would have broken even around $710 but its probably less then that tbh, I don't get where you are getting 750 from, that's certainly way more then double the budget and the marketing costs

$750 was about how much TASM made, but if TASM2 doesn't make the same amount it doesn't mean it hasn't broke even it just means it's unfortunately made less then TASM

 

[Arach Knight]

This situation is painful to observe. The film sits at $673 million, which is $23 million more than I predicted it would make, but the film is still quite some distance from matching the gross for the first Amazing Spider-Man. It needs to gross another $79 million just to match the previous film. This coming week it has to compete with Maleficent as well as X-Men and Godzilla. We will all have a better idea of how things are come Tuesday. Memorial day will be the proving ground for this film.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Aloha,
Here's a great comparison of ALL of the Spidey movies from box office mojo. Take into account that TASM2 has been out 22 days.I'm seeing more American fanboy fatigue than franchise fatigue.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=spidermanvs.htm
Spidey rules

Partially true, but you have to take into account that the SM1-SM3 figures are not adjusted for infaltion, and don't get a 3D/Imax boost. Even with the disadvantages, SM3 is still the king of the international BO grosses for the series, and TASM/TASM2 didn't make a ton more than SM1/SM2 (once again, unadjusted for inflation and no 3D).

Sony I am sure, all that said, is happy with the foreign numbers. But, the domestic numbers are awful.

 

[JKKS085]

At the very most it would have broken even around $710 but its probably less then that tbh, I don't get where you are getting 750 from, that's certainly way more then double the budget and the marketing costs

$750 was about how much TASM made, but if TASM2 doesn't make the same amount it doesn't mean it hasn't broke even it just means it's unfortunately made less then TASM

755M comes from deadline. Actually the break even point was deemed even higher at first since Sony reportedly spent 255M to produce the film and 190M in P&A. But apparently they got some help with the financing (probably from marketing partners, product placements and tax breaks).

Either way that thumb rule of doubling the production budget and marketing in order to break even is getting less and less valid with the expansion of foreign markets in which studios get about 40% of the gross (and only 25% in China).

 

[Atharun]

Ok people the doom and gloom is getting old. This film has been out three weeks. Just 3 weeks (stateside). Of course it will pass 700 mil. Captain America has been out for almost two month and is still listed on over 1,373 theaters per Box Office Mojo. This movie will continue to make money both domestic and foreign for a bit. Sure it won't make tons but in the end it will still make good money. As it stand right now the movie is at $673,900,000.00. We still have today (Sunday the 25th) and tomorrow. Some people will play "catch up" and see the movie since they missed it. People are acting like this is a box office flop and it is not at all. The movie made money and quite a bit and is still making money. Sure it was not as much as the the older ones or other movies but it still made a lot of money. It still has many people who enjoyed it and.....it hasn't been released on blu ray,dvd,on demand. etc. yet.

Everyone says the budget is 255 mil or so but all I could find was 200-255. No idea what it actually was. For all we know this movie could continue to trickle in money and end up higher than we think plus home media will prob make a pretty penny too.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

China and the UK propped this movie up significantly for international numbers.

Without China, this movie would be in serious trouble. The kind of trouble that Sony would HAVE to sit down and talk about.

 

[JKKS085]

Ok people the doom and gloom is getting old. This film has been out three weeks.

But apparently spinning is still trending.

Domestically it is a box office flop compared to previous installments in the franchise, put in perspective with the very expectation the studio had for this movie. And if you take the production and P&A budgets in account (the lower end estimates are around 400M spent by the studio) it is even worse than it looks.

It is saving face internationally but this is only due to the mechanical growth on a number of key markets (such as China) otherwise the franchise would be declining on that front too.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is going to be both the most expensive and least successful installment in the franchise. It's going to be the first Spider-Man film grossing less than 750M WW and less than 250M dom. It could very well be the first Spider-Man flick not to get in the yearly top 10 domestically. TASM2 is about to end its domestic run with an attendance of about 1/3 of the first Spider-Man's attendance. Those are terrible prospects for the franchise there's no two ways about it.

And the movie has been out 6/7 weeks internationally, 4 weeks in the US and it's plumetting faster than any Spider-Man film before. The trend is not going to suddenly reverse and make this film the success or even moderate success it isn't.

 

[Atharun]

A moderate success is what? Avengers numbers...that was never going to happen. Studios have many ways of recuperating revenue. The movie will prob be in US thaters for another month or so on a diminishing amount of screens but will easily break 200 mil. Even if it is the lowest grossing SM movie that does not make it a flop. If that were the case CA TFA and Thor 1 would be considered flops they are not as neither broke 200 mil domestic. Sure the movie could have made more but a flop it is not. Sorry but 700 mil = a success even if it wasn't the success "desired"

 

[JKKS085]

A moderate success is what? Avengers numbers...that was never going to happen. Studios have many ways of recuperating revenue. The movie will prob be in US thaters for another month or so on a diminishing amount of screens but will easily break 200 mil. Even if it is the lowest grossing SM movie that does not make it a flop. If that were the case CA TFA and Thor 1 would be considered flops they are not as neither broke 200 mil domestic. Sure the movie could have made more but a flop it is not. Sorry but 700 mil = a success even if it wasn't the success "desired"

Thor and CATFA were made on half of what Sony spent on TASM2. They were first installment putting B-list characters on screen for the first time of course they were not expected to be smashing hits. You can't just throw numbers like 700M and ignore the all context. You can't disregard how much money has been invested on a movie or what the studio's expectations were when analyzing numbers. Sony wanted it to be a billion dollar hit, they already settled with the moderate success of TASM in 2012, they expected some return on their investment this time around which they are not gonna get (or at least not until they cash in revenues from Home Video sales). Success or failure at the BO are relative things. 200M domestically (and no it's not going break that mark easily) for a Spider-Man film is dissapointing because 10 years ago ago Spider-Man movies were breaking 350M on lower budgets. From a business standpoint that is the very definition of a flop.

A moderate success would have been grossing at least more than TASM, offering prospects of growth for further installments of the franchise. The things these numbers say to Sony is to expect even less from next outings. And that is flat out bad for the future of the franchise.

 

[X Knight]

the difference with Cap 1 and Thor 1 is that both were non-sequels, so they can get a pass for not breaking 200 m.

plus, they are not Spider-Man, either, in terms of popularity.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

A few points:

DVD sales rarely save films anymore and the film has been out longer than 4 weeks, I don't know why people keep saying otherwise?

Talking realistically about the box office numbers is not doom and gloom. Nobody is calling the movie a flop, well it did kinda flop in North America but overall of course it's not a flop.

I think Sony would have been happy with 845-900mil because real growth would have been shown, it's hard for me to believe that they are happy with the sequel to their reboot making less money worldwide.

So lets see it's going to make around 7 or 8% more than the first overseas and about 20-22% less domestically and you think Sony are happy with these numbers?

 

[Erzengel]

Avengers numbers is considered moderate numbers?

 

[rayc1971]

the difference with Cap 1 and Thor 1 is that both were non-sequels, so they can get a pass for not breaking 200 m.

plus, they are not Spider-Man, either, in terms of popularity.

also their budgets were 150mill so theey made more profit hell their sequels were only 170mill amazing spiderman budget 230mill the sequel 255mill

 

[TalismanRing]

http://www.rentrak.com/section/movies_and_tv_everywhere/top_entertainment_rankings.html#1

Amazing Spider-Man 2

WW w/e: $19,000,000
Int'l w/e: $11,200,000
Dom w/e: $7,800,000

WW: $673,901,192
Int'l: $489,000,000
Dom: $184,901,192

International w/e was down 66%. $510m O/S now looks like a more likely target.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yep and Godzilla was down 67% overseas, X-Men killed the weak competition.

 

[XtremelyBaneful]

the difference with Cap 1 and Thor 1 is that both were non-sequels, so they can get a pass for not breaking 200 m.

plus, they are not Spider-Man, either, in terms of popularity.

i don't know about thor but it is easy to tell at this point that cap > spidey in terms of popularity.

 

[JKKS085]

http://www.rentrak.com/section/movies_and_tv_everywhere/top_entertainment_rankings.html#1

Amazing Spider-Man 2

WW w/e: $19,000,000
Int'l w/e: $11,200,000
Dom w/e: $7,800,000

WW: $673,901,192
Int'l: $489,000,000
Dom: $184,901,192

International w/e was down 66%. $510m O/S now looks like a more likely target.

Good so that means 715M WW tops. CATWS should be really close to these numbers too. It'll be a close race but I'm glad Cap has a fighting chance which is unexpected to say the least.

 

[Spiderine]

You also have to understand that this film was supposed open the gates for a Spiderman Cinematic Universe full of spin offs and sequels. If it failed to meet their expectations what does that mean for future projects going forward. Thats a bad sign when the trend continues to go backwards.

 

[MistaBinks]

The source deadline sited later updated their article and said $690 was the break even number for ASM2. I am not sure how they get that number as different markets have different dollar splits with the studio. Sony doesn't get the same percentage of a Chinese movie ticket sold as it does from an American one.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

If I was Avi Arad, these would be my thoughts if the film finished at certain milestones.

$1 Billion - "Woo hoo!"
$900 Million - "I'm reasonably pleased. I expected a bit more, but we are headed in the right direction so there is little reason to complain."
$800 Million - "I'm disappointed. I'll need to re-evaluate where I want this franchise to go moving forward."
$700 Million - "I'm seriously worried for my job."
$600 Million - "Where did I put that cyanide capsule?"

 

[Bullseye1]

Sony should get rid of Avi for a start. Even though I enjoyed both ASMs I would also get new writers and Director. I'd keep the actors.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

This is going to struggle to get to $200m domestically and $700m WW. That is a crazy drop.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

This is going to struggle to get to $200m domestically and $700m WW. That is a crazy drop.

Even two weeks ago after it had already gotten off to a poor start, I thought it would pass those targets with ease.

Remember how about ten days ago I mentioned how it was in danger of falling behind Thor: The Dark World domestically. According to the weekend estimates, that has now happened.

 

[sf2]

Good so that means 715M WW tops. CATWS should be really close to these numbers too. It'll be a close race but I'm glad Cap has a fighting chance which is unexpected to say the least.

indeed. never thought Cap will do better that the amazing spiderman...
it's just insane... i mean spidey was so popular among the youngsters and it has all the right ingredients for the youngsters... while cap was such a dull and "political" character, most youngsters wouldn't be interested in...

 

[sf2]

This is going to struggle to get to $200m domestically and $700m WW. That is a crazy drop.

it has already reached WW: $673,901,192; Dom: $184,901,192, how is that a struggle to reach those numbers?