The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[spiderman2]

Tell you what, if TASM3 is opening up and being hailed the best movie ever, then WOM will be great and with a smart opening weekend, we could see Spidey be a hit in the US again.

They've just got to make a critically acclaimed film A good spidey film=money

I agree there has been a lot of talk about franchise fatigue witch I don't think is even true people just want a good movie that is the problem. The thing with asm3 is that it is coming after asm2,1 and sm3 and it may have a lot of compation has 2016 is looking really big.

 

[TheWallCrawler]

Its not though asm1 made about 752 million and it looks like asm2 is going to be like 710-730 million.

oh? my mistake, I haven't exatcly paid attention to the box office status that tightly

still, 710-730 million is pretty succesful. Maybe not in Sony's absurd world view where they think that if they put Spider-man in his classic costume the movie is automatically gonna earn a billion, but yeah other than that, there's no big reason for finacial worry

 

[TheWallCrawler]

Exactly. It's doing decent. With a lower budget n better story for the sequal, spidey will make an impressive comeback. He is still very popular. More popular than thor n cap I dare to say. Among the 3, most people will say spidey movie has better chance making into billion.

what do you mean by a smaller budget? The strategy should be a little bolder with TASM3, full creative control given to the right people, and all chips in. That means equal or hell, maybe an even bigger budget. I dunno, it sounds even absurd to me to burn even more money but it could very well work in their favor

 

[JKKS085]

elaborate about what? if this movie is getting more money world wide than TASM1, it's not gonna be concidered a failure regardless of American box office results. Sometimes the balance gets tipped, doesn't mean that Spider-man's popularity in US is doomed

It won't. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[spiderman2]

what do you mean by a smaller budget? The strategy should be a little bolder with TASM3, full creative control given to the right people, and all chips in. That means equal or hell, maybe an even bigger budget. I dunno, it sounds even absurd to me to burn even more money but it could very well work in their favor

They could use less money on marketing though. Ever one talks about how they showed to much and want not. I don't know how much movies usly spend on marketing compared to budget but it semed like it was more with this movie on marketing then most movies.

 

[spiderman2]

Your not going to get to cheap though. Almost any big time action block bust has a budget of 200 or more now days.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

oh? my mistake, I haven't exatcly paid attention to the box office status that tightly

still, 710-730 million is pretty succesful. Maybe not in Sony's absurd world view where they think that if they put Spider-man in his classic costume the movie is automatically gonna earn a billion, but yeah other than that, there's no big reason for finacial worry

It isn't a success considering what they spent.

what do you mean by a smaller budget? The strategy should be a little bolder with TASM3, full creative control given to the right people, and all chips in. That means equal or hell, maybe an even bigger budget. I dunno, it sounds even absurd to me to burn even more money but it could very well work in their favor

And this is exactly why it isn't a success. They out spent a $700m film.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

They could use less money on marketing though. Ever one talks about how they showed to much and want not. I don't know how much movies usly spend on marketing compared to budget but it semed like it was more with this movie on marketing then most movies.

Producing and releasing the trailers doesn't cost that much. What cost a lot of is tv time, events, sending the stars around, billboards, etc.

 

[TheWallCrawler]

edit

 

[spiderman2]

Producing and releasing the trailers doesn't cost that much. What cost a lot of is tv time, events, sending the stars around, billboards, etc.

While yeah but still it sounds like they maybe could have cut back a little on it. It was said they spent like 180-190 on marketing maybe with asm3 they could spent like 150 instead that would be like 30-40 million less.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

sorry but I genuinely don't get this post, at first you say it's a success concidering the amount they spent, and then you say it's not a success because they spent too much to only earn $700m. Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but as it stands your post seems to contridict itself

It was a mistake. I edited my post. The film outspent its box office. They were looking for at least $900m, not to make less then TASM.

 

[JKKS085]

Tell you what, if TASM3 is opening up and being hailed the best movie ever, then WOM will be great and with a smart opening weekend, we could see Spidey be a hit in the US again.

They've just got to make a critically acclaimed film A good spidey film=money

It's the same talk we had after TASM's underwhelming numbers (at least domestically). TASM2 was supposed to be a breakout hit after TASM suffered from reboot bias, tough competition and all the excuses people could possibly come up with. The result as we can see it now is the exact opposite of that.

TASM3 isn't going to be a hit coming after three dissapointing films in the franchise even if it is TDK good. And odd's are we will see even more studio intereferences resulting in an even worse film. The Peter/Gwen romance which was pretty much the highlight of the first two films is gone and they are going to build a sequel on the worst vilains the franchise (and possibly the genre) has ever known. It's going to come after Captain America 3 and X-Men Apocalypse which are both sequels of successful, critically acclaimed films and after Batman v Superman which will probably be the movie event of the year (if it is any good). TASM3 is gonna get crushed even worse than TASM2 regardless of quality.

The only way Sony can actually reverse the trend now and get some mere profit out of next film is if they drastically reduce production and P&A budgets.

 

[TheWallCrawler]

It was a mistake. I edited my post. The film outspent its box office. They were looking for at least $900m, not to make less then TASM.

I get your point, but it's still not a finacial disaster

 

[spiderman2]

Oh got you I was kind of confused to at what you where meaning.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

While yeah but still it sounds like they maybe could have cut back a little on it. It was said they spent like 180-190 on marketing maybe with asm3 they could spent like 150 instead that would be like 30-40 million less.

And that is a problem. First, it took this much marketing to make less then TASM. All their marketing could produced less return. That means the general audiences are moving away. So what, they are going to get more people on their side spending less? I don't think that will happen.

Second, TASM3 is probably going to do even worse then TASM2. The reaction from the general public is no thanks, especially domestically. Same from critics. It is going to need a massive turnaround to buck the downward trend.

I get your point, but it's still not a finacial disaster

Oh yes it is. Someone is getting fired for this. A poorly received film by audiences and critics, that is going to lose money? That is bad on all fronts.

 

[spiderman2]

It's the same talk we had after TASM's underwhelming numbers (at least domestically). TASM2 was supposed to be a breakout hit after TASM suffered from reboot bias, tough competition and all the excuses people could possibly come up with. The result as we can see it now is the exact opposite of that.

TASM3 isn't going to be a hit coming after three dissapointing films in the franchise even if it is TDK good. And odd's are we will see even more studio intereferences resulting in an even worse film. The Peter/Gwen romance which was pretty much the highlight of the first two films is gone and they are going to build a sequel on the worst vilains the franchise (and possibly the genre) has ever known. It's going to come after Captain America 3 and X-Men Apocalypse which are both sequels of successful, critically acclaimed films and after Batman v Superman which will probably be the movie event of the year (if it is any good). TASM3 is gonna get crushed even worse than TASM2 regardless of quality.

The only way Sony can actually reverse the trend now and get some mere profit out of next film is if they drastically reduce production and P&A budgets.

Yeah I agree after 3 bad dissapoting movies in a row even if asm3 is consider great with having to go agest those movies it is not going to be good but if the movies turns out great then I could see asm4 making a lot more. Its baby steps right now to get back and asm3 being really good would be baby steps. They should probly delay the movie to like late 2016 so they don't go up agest cap3, xmen apocalypse and batman vs superman and have it come out like in December or delay it to 2017 when there may not be has many big movies that year.

 

[spiderman2]

And that is a problem. First, it took this much marketing to make less then TASM. All their marketing could produced less return. That means the general audiences are moving away. So what, they are going to get more people on their side spending less? I don't think that will happen.

Second, TASM3 is probably going to do even worse then TASM2. The reaction from the general public is no thanks, especially domestically. Same from critics. It is going to need a massive turnaround to buck the downward trend.


Oh yes it is. Someone is getting fired for this. A poorly received film by audiences and critics, that is going to lose money? That is bad on all fronts.

While I think they will get more people on there side by having a good movie nothing else at this point so I don't think speing a little less on marketing is going to really make a difference and that is why they need a massive turnaround meaning a movie that is batman begins level or even better.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

While I think they will get more people on there side by having a good movie nothing else at this point so I don't think speing a little less on marketing is going to really make a difference and that is why they need a massive turnaround meaning a movie that is batman begins level or even better.

And you get this "good movie" out to the masses with less marketing? There is going to be inflation also. The near $200m they spent this year, won't get them the same in 2 or 3 years time.

 

[TheWallCrawler]

Oh yes it is. Someone is getting fired for this. A poorly received film by audiences and critics, that is going to lose money? That is bad on all fronts.

After hearing about Matt Tolmachs decision during filming to shouve the sinister six stuff in, I really hope his ass is on the line. Unlikely though, Webb would be easier to blame

 

[DarthSkywalker]

After hearing about Matt Tolmachs decision during filming to shouve the sinister six stuff in, I really hope his ass is on the line. Unlikely though, Webb would be easier to blame

Who they need to get rid of is Avi.

 

[LizardMan07]

I don't accept that a critically acclaimed spider-man film would not be a hit, and I would contend that TASM was not a dissapointing film, as it's RT scores would indicate. 750M on a reboot against the most succesful CBM of all time is nothing to be dissapointed about.

Next film has to be good to save the franchise, and the brand. Sony knows that, and will be doing everything they can to make the next film one of the best things to come out of this CBM golden age. They simply have to do it to maintain the value of the brand, and it just makes sense business wise to do so.

 

[LizardMan07]

Who they need to get rid of is Avi.

Agree with that, he's been there too long, bring in some fresh faces.

 

[spiderman2]

And you get this "good movie" out to the masses with less marketing? There is going to be inflation also. The near $200m they spent this year, won't get them the same in 2 or 3 years time.

When you did to much marketing then yeah if you cut back a little bit you could still have good markting its not like I am saying don't spend any thing on marketing but you could spend a little less. what would say 150 million be like inflation wise in 2 or 3 years? I didn't think about the inflation thing. There best bet may be to dealy the movie and not go up agest the 2016 heave hitters. The reason I say that is that with going up agest those if the movie is great It would probly just make about the same has asm2 but if great and not agest those heave hitters then I could see a increase even if not massive say for like asm2 of say 712 to asm3 making 740 or something but hey that would be a start. They are not going to get the movie to a billion over night baby step people baby steps.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't accept that a critically acclaimed spider-man film would not be a hit, and I would contend that TASM was not a dissapointing film, as it's RT scores would indicate. 750M on a reboot against the most succesful CBM of all time is nothing to be dissapointed about.

Next film has to be good to save the franchise, and the brand. Sony knows that, and will be doing everything they can to make the next film one of the best things to come out of this CBM golden age. They simply have to do it to maintain the value of the brand, and it just makes sense business wise to do so.

Is that what they said they were doing this time? Isn't that what this board and Sony were hyping? Utter comic book perfection?

 

[JKKS085]

Yeah I agree after 3 bad dissapoting movies in a row even if asm3 is consider great with having to go agest those movies it is not going to be good but if the movies turns out great then I could see asm4 making a lot more. Its baby steps right now to get back and asm3 being really good would be baby steps. They should probly delay the movie to like late 2016 so they don't go up agest cap3, xmen apocalypse and batman vs superman and have it come out like in December or delay it to 2017 when there may not be has many big movies that year.

Delaying the movie the movie for a 2017 release would be Sony's smartest move yet regarding this franchise. There is no scenario where this ends well for TASM3 in 2016 against 3 juggernauts in the genre (and another Marvel Studios release in July). And given that they need to build some anticipation for the next film a longer delay between TASM2 and its sequel would only help.