The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Orba]

The big trouble with trying to understand if a film is profitable is studio accounting, there have been plenty of film that made loads of money yet on the books made a loss. And if a film lost money then the studios don't have to share the profits with anyone that might otherwise have gotten a share. For example I'm sure that I read that there are some of the original star wars films that have technically never made any money.

 

[Erzengel]

I've never read anything like that. I know that 20th Century Fox didn't have the sequel rights or merchandising rights. I know Lucas had to borrow money from Fox due to budget costs for Empire. But with the amount of times that Star Wars was rereleased, it's hard to imagine them not making any money off the deal since they didn't have any of the merchandising rights.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Say your goodbyes and sell it to Disney/Marvel. We haven't had a great Spider-Man movie in 10 years, enough is enough.

Even 10 years ago we didn't, agh!

 

[Bruce Malone]

Even 10 years ago we didn't, agh!

You weren't a fan of spider-man 2?

Going by critical and box office success I'd say SM2 was a resounding sucess as a spider-man film.

 

[Erzengel]

Yeah Spider-Man 2 was my #1 CBM prior to the Avengers, TDK, Captain America: TWS.

 

[GuestStar2004]

So I've been thinking and I'm sure others have made similar points before but I'm going to write this post anyway because I like saying things in my own way. I've assumed Sony was happy with the international numbers but if the were expecting or hoping for a billion surely they can't be too happy with them. They would have had to be expecting 650-700mil if they were expecting a billion or close to it to be made.

Well it was sonys fault for expecting a billion, they seemed way over confident with the film and didn't recognise the problems, they seem to believe they was the avengers and the dark knight in one

As for doom and gloom just let Sony decide what they are going to do next to correct their mistake (and I like the film), but stop dooming and glooming about how **** Sony are

 

[Spiderine]

I don't know about many of you guys but at the time SM2 was released I walked out the theater thinking that was the best comic book film I had ever seen. Even over X2 which was released a year before. I was totally satisfied.

 

[XSpidercideX]

I really hope Sony do not change the direction they are going in again. TASM2 was easily the best Spider-man movie yet for me, so it would be terrible for them to go a different direction. I think if they just get a more focused script, it will be perfect.

A more focused script would have put the movie towards 80% or higher on RT as that was really the number 1 complaint.

 

[GuestStar2004]

You weren't a fan of spider-man 2?

Going by critical and box office success I'd say SM2 was a resounding sucess as a spider-man film.

It made less then the first spider-man, so if you go by what people say on here Sony should been disappointed by SM2 in terms of box office

As for the film, nope I ain't a fan, good parts but I hate alot of it

 

[GuestStar2004]

I really hope Sony do not change the direction they are going in again. TASM2 was easily the best Spider-man movie yet for me, so it would be terrible for them to go a different direction. I think if they just get a more focused script, it will be perfect.

A more focused script would have put the movie towards 80% or higher on RT as that was really the number 1 complaint.

To much positivity there, the walls of this forum will come crashing down

 

[Bruce Malone]

I don't know about many of you guys but at the time SM2 was released I walked out the theater thinking that was the best comic book film I had ever seen. Even over X2 which was released a year before. I was totally satisfied.

From about the time of the release of SM2 up until the release of TDK, SM2 was pretty much considered the pinacle of comic book films.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well it was sonys fault for expecting a billion, they seemed way over confident with the film and didn't recognise the problems, they seem to believe they was the avengers and the dark knight in one

As for doom and gloom just let Sony decide what they are going to do next to correct sir mistake (and I like the film), but stop dooming and glooming about how **** Sony are

I do not care about your hurt fee fees sir. If you do not like this discussion, ignore it.

Bad reviews and declining box office usually doesn't yield discussions on how awesome things are going.

 

[Serpico Jones]

I really hope Sony do not change the direction they are going in again. TASM2 was easily the best Spider-man movie yet for me, so it would be terrible for them to go a different direction. I think if they just get a more focused script, it will be perfect.

A more focused script would have put the movie towards 80% or higher on RT as that was really the number 1 complaint.

Sony isn't going to change anything. I think people on here panicked a little early to be honest. A movie that grosses a billion dollars is a very rare thing.

 

[chaseter]

I just realized something in the other thread I was posting in...ASM2 will make less than Batman Begins domestic. That is very, very, very pathetic.

 

[JKKS085]

Well according to the article I just posted studios take in about 40 percent of the revenue from overseas release — and after expenses, they're lucky if they take in 15 percent of that number while domestically they can take 40 to 60%.

These estimates come from The Hollywood Economist by Edward Epstein and they are frankly a bit outdated these days.
Distribution costs went down in the past few years due to the massive expanding of digital theater. So studios expenses to release a film overseas are not as high as they used to be when Epstein wrote his piece.

For exemple, after expenses, Marvel Studios took in around 30% of Iron Man 3's overseas gross (29,73% exactly), roughly 20% for Thor The Dark World.
WB took in about the same for MoS but Disney managed to get about 28% for Frozen. So basically the bigger the film, the better for the studio but you can safely say that studios get in about 20 to 30% of overseas gross after expenses.

 

[GuestStar2004]

I do not care about your hurt fee fees sir. If you do not like this discussion, ignore it.

I got no hurt feeling at all lol, don't flatter yourself, all I am saying is I liked the film but I can admit it has some problems Sony need to address

I do see you a lot coming on trying to suggest how ****ed sony are because this and because that! well it's their fault if they messed up, let them do what they must

 

[TheWallCrawler]

I just realized something in the other thread I was posting in...ASM2 will make less than Batman Begins domestic. That is very, very, very pathetic.

how is it pathetic? Batman Begins is an excellent movie

 

[Erzengel]

Iron Man 3 made $806 so 30% of that.
Thor: The Dark World made $438 so 20% of that.

So for TASM 2 at $500 it would be closer to 20% than to 30%.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Sony isn't going to change anything. I think people on here panicked a little early to be honest. A movie that grosses a billion dollars is a very rare thing.

So you don't think the studio is concerned with the declining box office numbers?

I got no hurt feeling at all lol, don't flatter yourself, all I am saying is I liked the film but I can admit it has some problems Sony need to address

I do see you a lot coming on trying to suggest how ****ed sony are because this and because that! well it's their fault if they messed up, let them do what they must

For the last time I am not going to shut-up because you don't like my posts. You can lie to yourself about the situation but I am not under any obligation to do the same.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Sony isn't going to change anything. I think people on here panicked a little early to be honest. A movie that grosses a billion dollars is a very rare thing.

 

[JKKS085]

how is it pathetic? Batman Begins is an excellent movie

Well Batman Begins isn't exactly the sequel of a 262M film and it's production budget is about 100 millions lower. And it was released in 2005, without lower ticket price and no 3D premiums. I'll let you do the maths.

 

[Spiderine]

It made less then the first spider-man, so if you go by what people say on here Sony should been disappointed by SM2 in terms of box office

As for the film, nope I ain't a fan, good parts but I hate alot of it

Its held in a different regard because it was a critical success and received high praises leaving audiences looking forward to a third film. Don't really get that feeling with ASM2 which will end up being the worst domestic Spidey film. And Sony was looking at billion dollar sugar plums dancing in their heads along with it being a launchpad for spinoffs and the start of something much grander. Which film had more pressure?

 

[chaseter]

how is it pathetic? Batman Begins is an excellent movie

It's not a knock on the quality of BB. It's a knock on how pathetic Spider-Man has become that a $250 million film about Spider-Man in his 5th film can't beat a reboot of Batman coming off of Batman Forever and Batman and Robin. It goes to show that when you make a great second movie in a rebooted series that the audience is not confident fully about yet (TDK) as opposed to a terrible second movie (ASM2) then you fail. Sony and Webb should be ashamed. When you add in inflated prices, 3D tickets, and of course an extra $100 million in costs...it is truly, truly pathetic.

 

[Serpico Jones]

So you don't think the studio is concerned with the declining box office numbers?

For the last time I am not going to shut-up because you don't like my posts. You can lie to yourself about the situation but I am not under any obligation to do the same.

No. The final numbers aren't going to be much different from the first Webb film. I think in Sony's mind if you can add some popular villains like Venom and Ock and get the marketing budget under control then you'll be ok.

 

[chaseter]

Sony is in a no-win scenario right now with ASM3 unless they can make the film for $150 million...which they can't. ASM3 won't make $300 million domestic no matter how great the film is. It's impossible. The most they could hope for again is somewhere in between what ASM2 and ASM1 made domestic.