The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[spider-neil]

When the summer blockbuster season is over I will be very curious to see where Spidey finishes.

DoFT, rave reviews and coming off a movie that was loved.

Cap 2, rave reviews and coming off a movie that was like AND the Avengers.

ASM2, mixed reviews (at best) and coming off a movie that have mixed reviews.

You'd expect that Spidey would be crushed. We'll see if at the end of July that is truly the case.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Cute laughing smiley.
You said, Sony aren't making money. They aren't making as much as expected but they are making money. People were moaning about ASM 750m return whilst Sony green lit THREE sequels. Obviously Spidey isn't what he once was but the two Sony Webb features are on course to clear 1.4 Billion not including DVD/Blu ray, Syndication and residuals.
Sony aren't making as much as they expected or as much as they wanted but they ARE making money, if they weren't they would sell.

No. See the problem with this, is you seem to be under the allusion this movie could make under $800m, most of which isn't domestic, and break even. It won't. Especially with so much of its gross coming overseas. And if you want to include home media, you need to add the cost. Not to mention that TASM did ok in sales. You think the less liked sequel is going to do better in a declining market? TV rights are nice, but they have no merchandising at all.

You can make a movie that grosses 3 billion. But if that movie cost you 2 billion to make, you aren't making money. That is just the way it is. So you can keep on bringing up up $1.4 billion, and then you can take into consideration that all told, these films cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $900m to make, market and distribute. Probably more, but I'll be conservative, as I don't know the marketing budget for TASM.

Sony is a bad spot. They know they can make money with Spider-Man, the problem is they don't know how to right now. Sony is bleeding money everywhere, and they are cutting everywhere. If TASM3 fails like it probably will, they might just sell them back to Disney. And that is the beauty of the situation Disney is in right now. They are filthy rich, with one of the most thriving film divisions out there, made richer by their purchase of Lucasfilms. They can wait Sony out, just like they can wait Fox out over the Fantastic Four. They don't need to pay them what they are asking. In fact, they are making more money off TASM franchise then Sony.

Next year with Inside Out (Pixar), AoU (Marvel), and Episode VII (Lucasfilms), they could clear 4 billion in box office with 3 movies. That is before you take into account the merchandising. They don't have to do a thing. This is while Sony has to sit and pray that the next Bond does better then Skyfall and the PS4 becomes the Wii of this generation.

 

[spider-neil]

No. See the problem with this, is you seem to be under the allusion this movie could make under $800m, most of which isn't domestic, and break even. It won't. Especially with so much of its gross coming overseas. And if you want to include home media, you need to add the cost. Not to mention that TASM did ok in sales. You think the less liked sequel is going to do better in a declining market? TV rights are nice, but they have no merchandising at all.

You can make a movie that grosses 3 billion. But if that movie cost you 2 billion to make, you aren't making money. That is just the way it is. So you can keep on bringing up up $1.4 billion, and then you can take into consideration that all told, these films cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $900m to make, market and distribute. Probably more, but I'll be conservative, as I don't know the marketing budget for TASM.

Sony is a bad spot. They know they can make money with Spider-Man, the problem is they don't know how to right now. Sony is bleeding money everywhere, and they are cutting everywhere. If TASM3 fails like it probably will, they might just sell them back to Disney. And that is the beauty of the situation Disney is in right now. They are filthy rich, with one of the most thriving film divisions out there, made richer by their purchase of Lucasfilms. They can wait Sony out, just like they can wait Fox out over the Fantastic Four. They don't need to pay them what they are asking. In fact, they are making more money off TASM franchise then Sony.

Next year with Inside Out (Pixar), AoU (Marvel), and Episode VII (Lucasfilms), they could clear 4 billion in box office with 3 movies. That is before you take into account the merchandising. They don't have to do a thing. This is while Sony has to sit and pray that the next Bond does better then Skyfall and the PS4 becomes the Wii of this generation.

So, Sony are actually LOSING money on the Spider-Man franchise? Like I said, companies aren't in business to lose money. If Spidey isn't worth their while they will sell as it would make no sense not to.
What will be the explanation when Sony/Webb start principle for ASM3? They are doing it because...hey, what else are they going to do?
**** and kicks because no way will ASM3 make money, right?

Disney bought the entire Lucas franchise for 6 billion. If the Spidey franchise were dead money as you claim then a 2 billion deal would be more than enough to see the franchise exchange hands. I don't think Disney/Marvel would want Spidey run into the ground as the character would be worthless to them at that point.

 

[Bullseye1]

No. See the problem with this, is you seem to be under the allusion this movie could make under $800m, most of which isn't domestic, and break even. It won't. Especially with so much of its gross coming overseas. And if you want to include home media, you need to add the cost. Not to mention that TASM did ok in sales. You think the less liked sequel is going to do better in a declining market? TV rights are nice, but they have no merchandising at all.

You can make a movie that grosses 3 billion. But if that movie cost you 2 billion to make, you aren't making money. That is just the way it is. So you can keep on bringing up up $1.4 billion, and then you can take into consideration that all told, these films cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $900m to make, market and distribute. Probably more, but I'll be conservative, as I don't know the marketing budget for TASM.

Sony is a bad spot. They know they can make money with Spider-Man, the problem is they don't know how to right now. Sony is bleeding money everywhere, and they are cutting everywhere. If TASM3 fails like it probably will, they might just sell them back to Disney. And that is the beauty of the situation Disney is in right now. They are filthy rich, with one of the most thriving film divisions out there, made richer by their purchase of Lucasfilms. They can wait Sony out, just like they can wait Fox out over the Fantastic Four. They don't need to pay them what they are asking. In fact, they are making more money off TASM franchise then Sony.

I've read this twice and it still doesn't make sense.

Also where are your figures to back up this second claim?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So, Sony are actually LOSING money on the Spider-Man franchise? Like I said, companies aren't in business to lose money. If Spidey isn't worth their while they will sell as it would make no sense not to.
What will be the explanation when Sony/Webb start principle for ASM3? They are doing it because...hey, what else are they going to do?
**** and kicks because no way will ASM3 make money, right?

That is the Catch-22 of the rights game. Amazing isn't? Fox is producing a sub $100m FF film as a threat to Disney.

"Will do it. Will keep the rights, we swear!!!"

Disney bought the entire Lucas franchise for 6 billion. If the Spidey franchise were dead money as you claim then a 2 billion deal would be more than enough to see the franchise exchange hands. I don't think Disney/Marvel would want Spidey run into the ground as the character would be worthless to them at that point.

Why would Disney pay Sony 2 billion dollars for Spider-Man? They are making money off Sony making these movies. Why would they spend so much to take the rights back? They don't need them. They are going to make more then $5 billion next year. Star Wars, Tomorrowland, two Pixar movies, a little film called AoU, Cinderella, The Jungle Book.

It is exactly what they are doing with the Fantastic Four. Fox was looking for them to pay more then they wanted, and they said forget it. See if you can make it worth your own while. They can watch them do it. They clear more profit then anyone on their making of these films. If it gets worse, and it probably will, the asking price will come down and down and down.

The only one that I would say is "safe" is X-Men.

 

[sf2]

When the summer blockbuster season is over I will be very curious to see where Spidey finishes.

DoFT, rave reviews and coming off a movie that was loved.

Cap 2, rave reviews and coming off a movie that was like AND the Avengers.

ASM2, mixed reviews (at best) and coming off a movie that have mixed reviews.

You'd expect that Spidey would be crushed. We'll see if at the end of July that is truly the case.

i think ASM2 is doing as good as Cap 2 & DoFT. just that everyone has huge expectation on him because he is spidey.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

i think ASM2 is doing as good as Cap 2 & DoFT. just that everyone has huge expectation on him because he is spidey.

TASM cost a lot more to make, market and distribute for one. Second, TWS doubled its last film. Considering how it was recieved, Cap 3 could see an even greater boost. DoFP is going to do much better then the last few X-Men films, and is setting up another potential boost. TASM2 is declining, and badly, especially domestically.

 

[spider-neil]

That is the Catch-22 of the rights game. Amazing isn't? Fox is producing a sub $100m FF film as a threat to Disney.

"Will do it. Will keep the rights, we swear!!!"


Why would Disney pay Sony 2 billion dollars for Spider-Man? They are making money off Sony making these movies. Why would they spend so much to take the rights back? They don't need them. They are going to make more then $5 billion next year. Star Wars, Tomorrowland, two Pixar movies, a little film called AoU, Cinderella, The Jungle Book.

It is exactly what they are doing with the Fantastic Four. Fox was looking for them to pay more then they wanted, and they said forget it. See if you can make it worth your own while. They can watch them do it. They clear more profit then anyone on their making of these films. If it gets worse, and it probably will, the asking price will come down and down and down.

The only one that I would say is "safe" is X-Men.

Sony (you'd think) aren't stupid they will have a detailed plan on whether to proceed with making Spidey movies or whether to sell. Also who says they have to sell to Disney (unless Marvel first refusal).
Would be funny if Spidey ended up at WB or FOX. How funny would that be? Spidey on the Justice League or Spidey on the X-Men.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Sony (you'd think) aren't stupid they will have a detailed plan on whether to proceed with making Spidey movies or whether to sell. Also who says they have to sell to Disney (unless Marvel first refusal).
Would be funny if Spidey ended up at WB or FOX. How funny would that be? Spidey on the Justice League or Spidey on the X-Men.

I think if Sony was smart they wouldn't be selling real estate, but hey. They are desperate. Sony threw up a Hail Mary with TASM2 hoping they could get a taste of that Avengers money. It didn't work out how they were hoping.

Also, thank you for proving that you both don't know what you are talking about and are completely fanboyin' on this film. You do realize that Sony doesn't "own" Spider-Man right? They have licensing agreement with Marvel/Disney. Film rights revert back to Disney. Sony can't sell what they don't own to anyone other then Disney. That is why Sony had to sell the merch rights back to Marvel for an extension on the rights.

 

[spider-neil]

I think if Sony was smart they wouldn't be selling real estate, but hey. They are desperate. Sony threw up a Hail Mary with TASM2 hoping they could get a taste of that Avengers money. It didn't work out how they were hoping.

Also, thank you for proving that you both don't know what you are talking about and are completely fanboyin' on this film. You do realize that Sony doesn't "own" Spider-Man right? They have licensing agreement with Marvel/Disney. Film rights revert back to Disney. Sony can't sell what they don't own to anyone other then Disney. That is why Sony had to sell the merch rights back to Marvel for an extension on the rights.

I think you are just as clueless as I am to be honest with regards to the sale of the movie rights. You know for a fact Sony HAS to tell back the rights to Disney? If so, provide something that back these claims up.

Also Sony didn't HAVE to sell the merch rights to Disney, they did it curry favor with Disney with regards to holding onto the Spidey movie rights and that is FACT from the mouth a Sony producer.

Also you laughing smiley amuses no one but yourself, you come across incredible childish doing stuff that like and I don't have to post a smiley to back up that claim.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think you are just as clueless as I am to be honest with regards to the sale of the movie rights. You know for a fact Sony HAS to tell back the rights to Disney? If so, provide something that back these claims up.

Also Sony didn't HAVE to sell the merch rights to Disney, they did it curry favor with Disney with regards to holding onto the Spidey movie rights and that is FACT from the mouth a Sony producer.

Also you laughing smiley amuses no one but yourself, you come across incredible childish doing stuff that like and I don't have to post a smiley to back up that claim.

I love this. I might frame it. And thank you. That bold bit just proved my entire point. Why would they need to gain favor in terms of holding onto the rights? If they outright own them and aren't just licensing the rights?


Also, think I SEE SPIDEY and Teekay get a kick out of my smilie and gif usage.

 

[Bullseye1]

I think you are just as clueless as I am to be honest with regards to the sale of the movie rights. You know for a fact Sony HAS to tell back the rights to Disney? If so, provide something that back these claims up.

Also Sony didn't HAVE to sell the merch rights to Disney, they did it curry favor with Disney with regards to holding onto the Spidey movie rights and that is FACT from the mouth a Sony producer.

Also you laughing smiley amuses no one but yourself, you come across incredible childish doing stuff that like and I don't have to post a smiley to back up that claim.

I'm seeing a pattern with the posts myself. Lots of claims as fact but no actual proof. And then the usual "fanboyism" insult which is a sign of poor argument.

 

[spider-neil]

I love this. I might frame it. And thank you. That bold bit just proved my entire point. Why would they need to gain favor in terms of holding onto the rights? If they outright own them and aren't just licensing the rights?

Who the **** knows? Maybe they wanted to open the communication lines with Marvel with regards to crossovers, maybe they didn't want Disney to aggressively come after them with regards the movie rights, maybe they just needed the money from the merch rights but that is what the guy said. So go ahead and frame it.

 

[spider-neil]

I'm seeing a pattern with the posts myself. Lots of claims as fact but no actual proof. And then the usual "fanboyism" insult which is a sign of poor argument.

The only think I know for a 'FACT' is the Sony exec said they sold the merch rights to curry favor (paraphrasing) with Marvel/Disney everything else I have said is speculation. But I'm tired of reading a 750m and 700m picture are losses for Sony. Put up or shut up (not you Bullseye) because I'm calling bull**** on that one.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm seeing a pattern with the posts myself. Lots of claims as fact but no actual proof. And then the usual "fanboyism" insult which is a sign of poor argument.

You think Sony owns the film rights to Spider-Man out right. That they can just sell them too whom ever they want. Really?

Every Sony Spidey picture is technically a co-production with Marvel. That is why you see the Marvel logo at the beginning.

 

[Bullseye1]

The only think I know for a 'FACT' is the Sony exec said they sold the merch rights to curry favor (paraphrasing) with Marvel/Disney everything else I have said is speculation. But I'm tired of reading a 750m and 700m picture are losses for Sony. Put up or shut up (not you Bullseye) because I'm calling bull**** on that one.

They cannot put up as they know its BS. Sony have made money on the past two movie. Maybe nowhere near as much as they had hoped. Hopefully they will learn from the mixed reviews and box office returns and get the ship back on course.

Something which should also be taken into account is that studios source finance so they do not take 100% of the risk.

 

[spider-neil]

You think Sony owns the film rights to Spider-Man out right. That they can just sell them too whom ever they want. Really?

Every Sony Spidey picture is technically a co-production with Marvel. That is why you see the Marvel logo at the beginning.

Sony own the movie rights for Spidey outright unless they fail to make a Spider-Man movie within 5 years. Marvel can't even MENTION the name of Spidey in a big screen movie. If this isn't the case then show me that Sony aren't allowed to move those same rights onto someone else.

 

[Bullseye1]

You think Sony owns the film rights to Spider-Man out right. That they can just sell them too whom ever they want. Really?

Every Sony Spidey picture is technically a co-production with Marvel. That is why you see the Marvel logo at the beginning.

I'm sorry but where did I actually say that? I don't know what was in the original contract just as you don't. I just don't go around proclaiming I know.

Personally I don't think Sony have any interest in selling Spidey. They can cotton-ball it for a few years and come out afresh if they so desire.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The only think I know for a 'FACT' is the Sony exec said they sold the merch rights to curry favor (paraphrasing) with Marvel/Disney everything else I have said is speculation. But I'm tired of reading a 750m and 700m picture are losses for Sony. Put up or shut up (not you Bullseye) because I'm calling bull**** on that one.

You don't have to believe me. You can continue to believe what you want to believe. You can continue to fanboy all you'd like.

 

[Bullseye1]

You don't have to believe me. You can continue to believe what you want to believe. You can continue to fanboy all you'd like.

Do you not see this as trolling that other poster and being childish? What reaction are you expecting?

 

[spider-neil]

They cannot put up as they know its BS. Sony have made money on the past two movie. Maybe nowhere near as much as they had hoped. Hopefully they will learn from the mixed reviews and box office returns and get the ship back on course.

Something which should also be taken into account is that studios source finance so they do not take 100% of the risk.

Two losses in a row would absolutely force Sony to do a double take with producing more Spidey movies but not only are they making more Spidey movies (still waiting for the news that ASM3 is cancelled, nope, not heard that announcement yet) but they have pooched Goddard right off Daredevil to fast track the S6. Yet all I'm hearing is the losses Sony are making hand over fist with 2 Spidey movies ZERO evidence to back it up except a Harry Potter budget sheet (that may not even be legit).

Sony are idiots. Why? Because they keep making movies that according to some make no money.

 

[spider-neil]

Do you not see this as trolling that other poster and being childish? What reaction are you expecting?

This is why people are posting less and less on this forum.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm sorry but where did I actually say that? I don't know what was in the original contract just as you don't. I just don't go around proclaiming I know.

Personally I don't think Sony have any interest in selling Spidey. They can cotton-ball it for a few years and come out afresh if they so desire.

Actually they can't. That is why they sold the merch rights back to Disney. They have time limit, might even have a number of film limit, where Disney has the option to buy it back. I am not sure on the latter, but the former is clear. If they wait too long to make a Spidey film, they rights automatically convert back. That is why they made the merchandising deal. It is exactly what we are seeing with the Fantastic Four, who have just rushed into production of a low budget film to keep the rights.

 

[Bullseye1]

Actually they can't. That is why they sold the merch rights back to Disney. They have time limit, might even have a number of film limit, where Disney has the option to buy it back. I am not sure on the latter, but the former is clear. If they wait too long to make a Spidey film, they rights automatically convert back. That is why they made the merchandising deal. It is exactly what we are seeing with the Fantastic Four, who have just rushed into production of a low budget film to keep the rights.

They can put it on the back boiler for a number of years. I did not say indefinitely.

 

[Bullseye1]

Two losses in a row would absolutely force Sony to do a double take with producing more Spidey movies but not only are they making more Spidey movies (still waiting for the news that ASM3 is cancelled, nope, not heard that announcement yet) but they have pooched Goddard right off Daredevil to fast track the S6. Yet all I'm hearing is the losses Sony are making hand over fist with 2 Spidey movies ZERO evidence to back it up except a Harry Potter budget sheet (that may not even be legit).

Sony are idiots. Why? Because they keep making movies that according to some make no money.

I do see a lot of hate towards Sony yet the same people love the Raimi movies. It seems directors are more important than the character. Personally speaking I loved the first two Raimi SM and I've really enjoyed the reboots first two outings. But I do see why some genuine movie goers had problems with them. But we all know there are trolls who just love causing trouble and try to get a reaction. Its best not to feed them even though it can be difficult holding ones tongue or in this case fingers + keyboard.