The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Spiderine]

To be fair though, Warner Bros. and other studios believed that Man of Steel was going to be a $1 billion hit and Sony was aiming for $1 billion with Amazing Spider-Man 2. I can't blame the fans when even the studios were aiming a bit too high. Disney was probably the only realistic studio with their expectations for Thor: The Dark World.

Did WB really believe that with MOS? I can't see why when it was a reboot. And the state that SR left the franchise in. They needed a film to erase all that first. No way it was doing a billion.

 

[Spiderine]

I think a lot of people tend to overrate Superman's popularity. They confuse everyone knowing him to everyone liking him. The Batman/Superman sequel will make a ton because of the first cinematic team-up aspect of the two characters.

In terms of popularity across all platforms Superman doesn't touch Spider-Man or Batman in annual revenue.

I personally think BvS will make a billion, but I'm not expecting anything particularly great.

I think they missed that opportunity with SR. That was their chance to do with Supes what they had just did with Bats. Reestablish him for a new generation of fans and cut ties with the Donner films. They were forced to start over with MoS after the response from audiences.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Also, Superman isn't nearly as popular as some fans like to make out. He's well known, but a lot of people view him as a boring, out-dated boy scout. That he's your grandfather's superhero. It is a stigma that the character has to overcome. For all its faults, I do think Man of Steel helped with that somewhat.

 

[Spiderine]

Also, Superman isn't nearly as popular as some fans like to make out. He's well known, but a lot of people view him as a boring, out-dated boy scout. That he's your grandfather's superhero. It is a stigma that the character has to overcome. For all its faults, I do think Man of Steel helped with that somewhat.

It would have helped tremendously if this were the film done in 2006 instead of a vague sequel to 1978 Donner Supes. They should have done post crisis Supes. They made that mistake and it hurt Superman which was a dire need of an update.

 

[Erzengel]

Well you have to remember Superman premiered first. Who knows how Superman would have been received if he was introduced to the big screen in the 00s.

And not SR or MOS.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Episode VII is 2015, not 2016.

I thought the question was films in the next few years that were "locks", hence AoU? My mistake.

Avatar 2 - Lock
I think Avatar incredibly has a shot of breaking the all time record again as there are more 3D theaters and I think the majority of people will watch the movie in 3D as they will remember the experience of watching Avatar in 3D, which imho is STILL the best 3D movie ever.

AoU - Lock

BvS - Lock

Episode VII - hmm...
After 3 disastrous movies in a row. I dunno...

Finding Dory - hmm...
Finding Nemo did big numbers. I don't know the sequel will bring in the masses but if Frozen can do a billion no reason FD can't.
I'm hoping Train your Dragon crosses a billion although that is unlikely.

Find Dory? Really? Finding Nemo didn't even make 1B and it's going to be really hard to make a better movie than that. Especially with the exact same premise...

BvS I cannot agree with... High 800's I'd say would be a lock, anything more is very optimistic to me. Unless the trailers come out and it looks like the second coming of Christ.

SW7 possibly just because how big the franchise is and what J.J can bring to the table. Although he did a fantastic job with Star Trek and look how that worked out in the B.O... Star Wars sells though, just look at E1-3, garbage and they made money.

Avatar 2 is tricky. The first one a once in a lifetime thing for the box office, IMO. 3D was just starting to become popular, and this movie was one of the best IMAX 3D experiences of all time. With how common IMAX and 3D have become, I doubt the second movie will have the same revolutionary feeling the first had... But it's definitely a strong contender. I think Avatar was a one hit wonder, they won't be able to replicate the feeling the first one gave people.

Star Wars will break a billion just based on the return of the OT cast. All people will need to see is the Falcon in the trailer. Game Over man, game over.

BvS is the return of Batman in a crossover. Wonder Woman will be showing up. The movie is going to have to be absolutely horrible to not see $800m at least. Batman's last film showed real growth overseas, without 3D. The first meeting of Batman and Superman on the big screen with bring out enough people domestically that it will probably only need a 2x multiplier to break $300m domestically. The 3D/IMAX, hype and big openings will do the work. But, this is the shakiest, but I think it will do it, and by some margin.

If Finding Nemo came out today, with 3D and inflation, it would have smashed a billion with ease. Finding Nemo was the first truly beloved Pixar film by general audiences. More so then the first two Toy Story films. The DVD sold like hotcakes, and was at one time the highest selling DVD of all time. It will be Toy Story 3 all over again. It will crush.

Avatar 2 is easy. The drop off in the box office for the sequel would have to be so huge, that it is almost unheard of. Avatar 2 won't make what the first did imo, but a billion will be easy money for it.

When you look at what these and AoU have going for it, it is actually pretty easy to see who TASM2 or really any TASM film doesn't have a real chance at a billion. It doesn't have the novelty or the cache to get close. If anything, the Spidey history works against it. Add that the series is at an all time low domestically, not a real chance.

 

[flickchick85]

I think a lot of people tend to overrate Superman's popularity. They confuse everyone knowing him with everyone liking him. The Batman/Superman sequel will make a ton because of the first cinematic team-up aspect of the two characters.

In terms of popularity across all platforms Superman doesn't touch Spider-Man or Batman in annual revenue.

That may be true, but when you've got so many Superman fans and famous Superman writers vocally hating on your movie, you haven't made a great Superman movie. I liked MoS, just because I was happy to see a new cinematic version of the character since I was never a fan of the Donnerverse, but all the complaints against it are more than valid. It was a Superman film made by self-proclaimed Batman fans, and that's exactly what it felt like (didn't help that they also aren't very good storytellers, IMO).

Popularity of the character is subject to the quality of the output. Superman's not as popular as he once was - and people think he's boring - because his portrayal in film and television has suffered in the last few decades and perpetuated this "boring boyscout" image. People were saying those same things about Captain America until this year, and look what one good Cap film did for him. Batman was once far less popular than he is now as well, as Schumacher drove his reputation into the ground. But one good Batman reboot later put him right back on track, and when it was followed by a groundbreaking, amazing sequel, he was the newly (re-)crowned king of the solo superhero mountain. Hell, Iron Man wasn't even in the conversation a decade ago.

All it would take for Superman's popularity to return is one amazing Superman film that nails the spirit of the character and what made him so popular in the first place (and what makes him still one of the best-selling characters in comics). Unfortunately, he's been without that for decades and I don't see one coming on the horizon. For a die-hard Superman fan like myself, it's just sad.

 

[InJustice]

My point wasn't that audiences care about the names, my point was their reception to his products. Snyder's style doesn't reap broad success the way those other directors do, and it's NOT the audiences going, "oh, it's that Snyder, better stay at home." It's them going, "I don't know if this looks like something I'll enjoy." OR after they've seen it, "eh, that could have been better. Probably won't see it again." His style doesn't have the broad appeal (or, one could argue, his movies don't deliver on their trailers' promise) to bring the kind of numbers that are generally expected of these characters. And yeah, MoS brought in $660m+, which was almost universally seen as a disappointing number at the time, since it didn't even beat that Spidey reboot which was ALSO seen as a slight financial disappointment. And now it's being eclipsed by Cap and possibly even freakin' X-Men (a series that's never been a major WW player). Sad day when those characters are competition for Superman. The bottom line is, if MoS had gotten a better response, it would have had better numbers. And for the record, I'm one who enjoyed MoS, so I'm not trying to bash it. But Cap had both the better film and the broader appeal, imo, so he deserved to beat MoS. And the ones to blame for that are Zack Snyder and David Goyer, for not making a Superman movie that more people could love. Snyder just doesn't make loveable movies, imo, and the evidence is in his track record: at the box office, with the audience's CinemaScore ratings, and with the critical reception.

Good thing for BvS is that it doesn't need to be loveable to make big numbers...but it would certainly help.

There are a couple of problems I have with that argument. For one, Man of Steel’s box office number being disappointing is largely a fan thing since they just automatically assume that a movie will do a billion without much thought put into their analysis (the rational superman fans in MOS forum last year certainly knew it wasn’t going to make a billion). If one looks solely at the cost, box office returns, and DVD sales, Man of Steel was pretty successful in that regard, so I can’t say it’s disappointing. Not to mention, reboots so far have never been able to cross the billion dollar mark. Additionally, it’s not sad at all that X-Men and Captain America are successful. In fact, there’s precedent shown for things like this, namely the Batman movies. Burton’s Batman was successful (though Batman Returns is debateable) and then we got into the Schumacher period where people thought there were never going to be a great Batman film. IIRC, after X-3 and Origins people lost a lot of faith in the X-Men series, which led to a sleeper pick X-Men: First Class not being that successful despite being a good movie, while DOFP so far is now successful. Capt is a different scenario since he’s had the foundation since Phase I, and the Russo brothers have taken a character that was generic, and dare I say boring, and made him into a legitimate badass. It’s no wonder these movies are successful now.

Also, I might put myself in hot water, but how do we know that the audience isn’t part of the problem? That is to say, how much of a role does their preconceived notions of Superman play into Man of Steel’s mixed reception? My problem is that audiences hated portions of Man of Steel that I think were completely misunderstood (the biggest one being that Superman destroyed buildings when most people recognize the opposite happened), as well as people expecting their Superman to be on screen rather than seeing the film as an interpretation of a character like comic books. In fact, we see this to a lesser extent with the Batman movies where people bash facets of Bale’s performance because it wasn’t as “iconic” or “representative of Batman” like Keaton’s was.

 

[Iceman]

Well you have to remember Superman premiered first. Who knows how Superman would have been received if he was introduced to the big screen in the 00s.

And not SR or MOS.

I think X-Men would be a lot bigger if it debuted in the late 2010s with a huge budget out the gate.

 

[flickchick85]

There are a couple of problems I have with that argument. For one, Man of Steel’s box office number being disappointing is largely a fan thing since they just automatically assume that a movie will do a billion without much thought put into their analysis (the rational superman fans in MOS forum last year certainly knew it wasn’t going to make a billion). If one looks solely at the cost, box office returns, and DVD sales, Man of Steel was pretty successful in that regard, so I can’t say it’s disappointing. Not to mention, reboots so far have never been able to cross the billion dollar mark. Additionally, it’s not sad at all that X-Men and Captain America are successful. In fact, there’s precedent shown for things like this, namely the Batman movies. Burton’s Batman was successful (though Batman Returns is debateable) and then we got into the Schumacher period where people thought there were never going to be a great Batman film. IIRC, after X-3 and Origins people lost a lot of faith in the X-Men series, which led to a sleeper pick X-Men: First Class not being that successful despite being a good movie, while DOFP so far is now successful. Capt is a different scenario since he’s had the foundation since Phase I, and the Russo brothers have taken a character that was generic, and dare I say boring, and made him into a legitimate badass. It’s no wonder these movies are successful now.

Also, I might put myself in hot water, but how do we know that the audience isn’t part of the problem? That is to say, how much of a role does their preconceived notions of Superman play into Man of Steel’s mixed reception? My problem is that audiences hated portions of Man of Steel that I think were completely misunderstood (the biggest one being that Superman destroyed buildings when most people recognize the opposite happened), as well as people expecting their Superman to be on screen rather than seeing the film as an interpretation of a character like comic books. In fact, we see this to a lesser extent with the Batman movies where people bash facets of Bale’s performance because it wasn’t as “iconic” or “representative of Batman” like Keaton’s was.

The expectations I'm referring to aren't the delusional fans saying MoS would be a lock for a billion; I'm referring to box office pundits who predicted its ultimate run based on tracking. It's simply the numbers: A movie with the kind of opening weekend MoS had should have gotten a much better run at the box office if its WoM had been up to snuff. Instead, it had a weak multiplier that stunted its box office performance. Had it been better received, it would have made A LOT more. Not a billion, certainly, but at least $100M more.

And the problem is only with the audience when people want it to be to support their argument. The audience is certainly responsible for Transformers being as popular as it is, but then, Michael Bay knows what they want from him and he plays successfully to that. Critics (and I) hate the results, but audiences only go to those movies for the spectacle, and Bay delivers enough of that to keep them coming back for more. Christopher Nolan seems to know what audiences want from his types of movies, and responds successfully to that, earning raves from critics and audiences alike. Snyder's work doesn't successfully click with either on a large scale, hence my labeling him a box office hindrance to the heroes he's bringing to the screen. People aren't misunderstanding MoS. It's not just Superman fans that had qualms with the movie. If it were, I'd tell them to get over themselves and be happy their character was a hit again with audiences. But that wasn't the case. It didn't resonate with general moviegoers much better. If your movie's not a hit with general moviegoers, it's not a hit with critics, and it's not even a hit with fans of the character, then you did something wrong.

And for the record, they didn't have to change Cap to make him "badass" in TWS. He's been like that in the comics for a long time, and was no more "boring" than he was in that movie. They just successfully translated Brubaker's Captain America directly to the big screen. There are many incarnations of Superman in the comics that could do the same thing, if someone were to come along and translate them well. But it sadly doesn't seem like anyone's gonna be doing that for the foreseeable future.

 

[X Knight]

That may be true, but when you've got so many Superman fans and famous Superman writers vocally hating on your movie, you haven't made a great Superman movie. I liked MoS, just because I was happy to see a new cinematic version of the character since I was never a fan of the Donnerverse, but all the complaints against it are more than valid. It was a Superman film made by self-proclaimed Batman fans, and that's exactly what it felt like (didn't help that they also aren't very good storytellers, IMO).

Popularity of the character is subject to the quality of the output. Superman's not as popular as he once was - and people think he's boring - because his portrayal in film and television has suffered in the last few decades and perpetuated this "boring boyscout" image. People were saying those same things about Captain America until this year, and look what one good Cap film did for him. Batman was once far less popular than he is now as well, as Schumacher drove his reputation into the ground. But one good Batman reboot later put him right back on track, and when it was followed by a groundbreaking, amazing sequel, he was the newly (re-)crowned king of the solo superhero mountain. Hell, Iron Man wasn't even in the conversation a decade ago.

All it would take for Superman's popularity to return is one amazing Superman film that nails the spirit of the character and what made him so popular in the first place (and what makes him still one of the best-selling characters in comics). Unfortunately, he's been without that for decades and I don't see one coming on the horizon. For a die-hard Superman fan like myself, it's just sad.

and when Superman had the chance to finally get a sequel and start a movie franchise of his own, what did they do?

They threw in Batman and WW and turned it into a precursor to Justice League.

 

[flickchick85]

and when Superman had the chance to finally get a sequel and start a movie franchise of his own, what did they do?

They threw in Batman and WW and turned it into a precursor to Justice League.

Indeed. And I honestly don't believe it would be happening this way if MoS had performed better. Honestly, this DC fan just avoids the BvS boards as much as possible at this point because I have little-to-no good things to say about the direction they seem to be going in.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Indeed. And I honestly don't believe it would be happening this way if MoS had performed better. Honestly, this DC fan just avoids the BvS boards as much as possible at this point because I have little-to-no good things to say about the direction they seem to be going in.

Batman "vee" Superman would be great if they weren't cluttering it up with Justice League ****. It's like Warner Bros. took the lessons learned from the Avengers and decided to go the opposite direction.

 

[sf2]

Indeed. And I honestly don't believe it would be happening this way if MoS had performed better. Honestly, this DC fan just avoids the BvS boards as much as possible at this point because I have little-to-no good things to say about the direction they seem to be going in.

i agree with you. MOS didn't perform as what they expected. and they don't believe he can by his own solo sequel. they simply have more confident in Batman. what to do... it's all about dollar and cent.

maybe they could bring in a partner for spidey in TASM3... to spice up a little...

 

[sf2]

I think a lot of people tend to overrate Superman's popularity. They confuse everyone knowing him with everyone liking him. The Batman/Superman sequel will make a ton because of the first cinematic team-up aspect of the two characters.

In terms of popularity across all platforms Superman doesn't touch Spider-Man or Batman in annual revenue.

I personally think BvS will make a billion, but I'm not expecting anything particularly great.

but i see more people wearing the superman t-shirt than batman or spidey.

 

[Iceman]

Avatar 2 will see a lot less than the 1st one (almost $2.8B) but if Cameron can make it feel cutting edge & new tech wise (other films don't really seem to be bothered about pushing tech at all) it should still be able to get the interest to get it past $1B. AoU should be pushing $2B with the overseas market really getting involved next time (I don't expect a massive increase domestically). Plus I get the feeling the 2nd film will be much better than the 1st. Star Wars has to do $1B if Abrams can bring that old magic finally into the modern era.

 

[X Knight]

Indeed. And I honestly don't believe it would be happening this way if MoS had performed better. Honestly, this DC fan just avoids the BvS boards as much as possible at this point because I have little-to-no good things to say about the direction they seem to be going in.

well, at least MOS performed better than the TASM movies!! t:

sorry Spidey fans...........

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

but i see more people wearing the superman t-shirt than batman or spidey.

I believe that hairdresser producer made a similar observation prior to SR when he sounded so confident that people were waiting for his return to the big screen after 20 years.

I see Superman tatoos at Muscle Beach in Venice and a lot of Superman signage at sporting events, but that doesn't mean any of those people are fans or going to see the films.

But yes, there are a lot of t-shirts around. I own one myself.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

well, at least MOS performed better than the TASM movies!! t:

sorry Spidey fans...........

Your math is different then mine, unless you are one of those types that discounts foreign box office until it helps a film you like get over a billion.

 

[flickchick85]

well, at least MOS performed better than the TASM movies!! t:

sorry Spidey fans...........

But...it didn't. Domestically, sure, but not overall.

 

[Silver Surfer]

SW7 will destroy everything, even Avengers 2. Star Wars brand + The original cast + JJ Abrams + 3D + Disney's marketing = Move over Titanic.

 

[sf2]

I believe that hairdresser producer made a similar observation prior to SR when he sounded so confident that people were waiting for his return to the big screen after 20 years.

I see Superman tatoos at Muscle Beach in Venice and a lot of Superman signage at sporting events, but that doesn't mean any of those people are fans or going to see the films.

But yes, there are a lot of t-shirts around. I own one myself.

I think it was true that people were waiting eagerly for his return in 2006. Too bad SR didn’t live up to the high expectation. SR simply doesn’t have the excitement element as compare to Spidey 1 and 2. Youngsters dissed it like trash which making the character less appeal to them.

 

[JOE]

SW7 will destroy everything, even Avengers 2. Star Wars brand + The original cast + JJ Abrams + 3D + Disney's marketing = Move over Titanic.

More than 2.1B? Highly unlikely... I'll be surprised if it passes The Avengers.

 

[flickchick85]

I'll be surprised if it passes The Avengers.

I think that could be a close race. If there's one thing Abrams knows how to do, it's make old nostalgic franchises look "cool" again. And the SW brand wasn't even struggling at the box office before the Abrams touch.

 

[bullets]

SW7 will destroy everything, even Avengers 2. Star Wars brand + The original cast + JJ Abrams + 3D + Disney's marketing = Move over Titanic.

There's an iceberg in the shape of prequels. The reputation of Star Wars may be damaged or perhaps people will of forgotten. I'm sure it will make a lot of money regardless , but I'm not expecting it to be colossal.