The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[A Necessary Evil]

Look at how well TWS did, and that was released in April, not a month normally known for BO smash hits. Know why it did so well? It was a wonderful movie. Put it out in May/June/July/August/Whenever, TASM2 would have the same negative reaction it got. If it were a better film, it would have made more money. Plain and Simple.

 

[A Necessary Evil]

^ Yep, the only thing that would've helped TASM 2's numbers would be the film being more than a mediocre rehash.

Nicer than I'd put it, but yeah basically lol.

 

[LizardMan07]

Look at how well TWS did, and that was released in April, not a month normally known for BO smash hits. Know why it did so well? It was a wonderful movie. Put it out in May/June/July/August/Whenever, TASM2 would have the same negative reaction it got. If it were a better film, it would have made more money. Plain and Simple.

It wouldn't have been the avengers vibe? Surely? No, purely because it's a good movie. Heck, that's why every transformers film does so well, just quality films.

This myth that the films quality is the only determining factor in the films BO takings is absolutely ridiculous. You're discounting the marvel factor, you're discounting the fact that it was the first CBM off the rank for the year. apparently the only thing that matters is the quality of the film. The Phantom Menace was clearly better than a new hope, hence it's higher box office takings.

This whole, "TASM2 was so awful nothing could have saved it" attitude is really not based in any fact whatsoever. A change in date, less aggressive marketing, more aggressive marketing, the leather on the theater seats worldwide. So many factors effect the success of a film, and so many factors could be hypothetically changed whilst keeping the core tenats of a film alive.

I cannot comprehend how we could argue that changing the date of a film wouldn't change it's box office at all...

 

[TheWallCrawler]

It was mostly directed at the "risky MOS sequel" and "rushed JL film" portions. JL is at least 3 years away and BvS began production over 2 years in advance. Nothing rushed about either, and none of us know what care is being put into building a JL film. A lack of pre-existing solo films does not equate to a rushed Justice League movie.

I agree with the bolded part and mostly with what you also said above, but you gotta admit that the inclusions of Wonder Woman and Aquaman kinda smell like afterthought. I'll be fine with it though as long as they really are just cameos

 

[Erzengel]

Transformers is an anomaly. Only series where you you can a movie get a a movie ranked 19% on RT and make over $400 million. There's also Pirates: DMC that is 54% which is another series that averages $300 million and above for the first 3 despite poor to mediocre reviews.

Then there's Phantom Menace that had like 57% but that is Star Wars which is an exception because it is Star Wars. A movie that people were looking forward to for 16 years?

Every other movie at least in the Top 20 is positive based on RT.

So statistically I agree that cream rises to the top.

And to debate the whole moving the date, the original had decent numbers in between Avengers and TDKR.

So out of the few arguments on why this didn't do well, why isn't the quality the most obvious choice given the history of the franchise?

 

[LizardMan07]

That'd be fine if we were debating why the movie didn't do well, but we're not, we're discussing whether the box office takings would change if the dates were shifted. Nice strawman agruement though, loving it.

Essentially, we've got the typical, "TASM2's box office wouldn't change if the dates were moved because it was so awful" argument. There's plenty more reasons that effect BO takings, and a substantial amount of them aren't related to the quality of the film at all. What if, hypothetically, this film was moved to august, and we had the great cinema depression begin in August? What if TASM2 was moved to before Cap 2, Marvel freaked out, and cancelled the thing? What if movies in August traditionally do worse than movies in May? Or are we saying that TWS was sooooo amazing that it could break all sorts of records for an August screening? Or has no good movie ever been released in august? It seems that, just maybe, the quality of the film isn't the only, definitive, parameter in the BO takings of a film. I mean, statistically (I won't post actual statistics) it's just irrefutable!!

There's plenty more examples of highly rated films doing less than lowely rated films. SM3 did more than SM2, SM1 did more than SM2. Iron Man 3 made more money, but was of a lesser quality than, DoFP. (RT scores). And even with the star wars example and the transformers examples, you dismissed them by bringing up these outside reasons to invalidate them, but that's exactly my point, there's outside factors that effect BO takings, and it's not just "This movie bad, it do bad no matter what".

To bring it back to the original post, it'd be lovely for some to say that TASM2 is doomed in whatever year, whatever time it as brought in, however history shows that whilst the quality of a film is one factor, it isn't definitive in affecting the overall change of box office results.

Fans seem to ride a wave of negativity regarding this movie and franchise, and unfortunately, logic and reason sometimes drowns due to the slight emotional trauma that Dr Kafka and Russian Rhino caused people.

 

[Erzengel]

For sake of argument, how much more do you figure TASM 2 would have made if it was moved and had 4 weeks of no competition?

$15? $25 million? More?

Most big movies are #1 at the BO for two weeks. TASM 2 couldn't even do that against Neighbors. Also most movies make up 75% of their domestic gross in the first 2 weeks. So it's hard for me to imagine a dramatic change.

I think the biggest factor for the fault of this film is the quality. If you think it could make a few extra million if it was moved? But I find it hard to believe that it'd make $50 million more in a "better" position with the same movie even though that first week of May has given many top grossing movies.

 

[JKKS085]

I don't think there is another release date this summer that would have allowed TASM2 to perform better. It got what is arguably the best spot of the year, starting the summer season, with lots of kids out of school and virtually 2 weeks without any "direct" competition. This is THE spot, the one studios are fighting for years in advance (see Marvel and WB in 2016). It's pretty convenient now to say that CATWS had the best release date, ignoring the fact that Marvel took a big risk releasing a high-profile superhero film ahead of the summer season for the first time ever. This is something that frequently comes up, how Marvel is able to pick the best release dates for their films every single time to somehow justify their success at the BO ignoring the fact that these films faced competition (but either beat it or managed to perform well despite of it) and sometimes paved the way by releasing them in unusual, risky spots for superhero movies. Given how TASM2 was received there was no safe spot per se this year. A 4th of July release sure, why not ? After all, AOE only grossed 37M that week end, retaining a lot of Imax and 3D screens in the process and the extremely well received Dawn of The Planet Of The Apes is just right around the corner. I can only imagine the smashing success TASM2 would have been in this spot. A late July release (on the 25th to stay away from Apes) ? With a Marvel Studio's release coming a week later, while TASM2 was hurt by a Seth Rogen flick ? I'm not exacty sure how it would have fared a lot better against another comicbook movie than it did against a raunchy R-rated comedy. Later in May, pitted against Godzilla, Days Of Future Past or Maleficent, it would have been a disaster. Mid-June there was 22 Jump Street and HTTY2 ... There is no real world scenario in which this movie could have done better with a similar reception and a different release date during this year's summer season.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I think it would have done worse actually. The first weekend in May is the golden release date that every studio wants. Year after year films released on that date get a boost.

 

[LizardMan07]

For sake of argument, how much more do you figure TASM 2 would have made if it was moved and had 4 weeks of no competition?

$15? $25 million? More?

Most big movies are #1 at the BO for two weeks. TASM 2 couldn't even do that against Neighbors. Also most movies make up 75% of their domestic gross in the first 2 weeks. So it's hard for me to imagine a dramatic change.

I think the biggest factor for the fault of this film is the quality. If you think it could make a few extra million if it was moved? But I find it hard to believe that it'd make $50 million more in a "better" position with the same movie even though that first week of May has given many top grossing movies.

What if it moved to August? Would it make less?

Because you're still arguing that the date wouldn't change the film much. Before people were happy to argue that it wouldn't have changed at all because TASM2 was so awful.

If we're past that, that's wonderful

 

[Saitou Hajime]

There's also Pirates: DMC that is 54% which is another series that averages $300 million and above for the first 3 despite poor to mediocre reviews.

DMC came off the good reception of CotBP. AWE and ONS had steep drops domestically.

 

[Erzengel]

What if it moved to August? Would it make less?

Because you're still arguing that the date wouldn't change the film much. Before people were happy to argue that it wouldn't have changed at all because TASM2 was so awful.

If we're past that, that's wonderful

So we're arguing semantics?

Because if TASM2 was moved to July 4th weekend and made $5 million more? Or moved to August and make $5 million less?

If you are arguing black and white, and +/- a few million, but I think what everyone else is talking about is some serious difference in gross of at least $50 million.

I don't think if it was moved to a different date, it would have made that much more money.

 

[LizardMan07]

I really don't see how 45 million dollars turns it from semantics to a genuine case. Just saying.

A change is a change, ANE said it wouldn't change at all, because the movie's terrible.

I took objection to that. Don't really care how much it would change.

I think it would make more money going up against the pirate fairy than DoFP though.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

This game of buts and what if's is going nowhere...

The movie is the movie and it did what it did. Nothing is going to change that.

 

[Erzengel]

I really don't see how 45 million dollars turns it from semantics to a genuine case. Just saying.

A change is a change, ANE said it wouldn't change at all, because the movie's terrible.

I took objection to that. Don't really care how much it would change.

I think it would make more money going up against the pirate fairy than DoFP though.

What I was saying is $50 million is a significant difference. Which I don't think TASM2 could have made if it was moved to April, December, or even if you removed Godzilla from release spot.

A few million isn't that dramatic. If you're saying that's enough of a change, I'm not going to argue with you about that.

But I think what ANE and others are inferring is a significant difference especially if $50 million or higher would have at least put it at the same gross as TASM.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Nikki Finke is writing a series of articles about how much of a mess it is behind the scenes at Sony Pictures and how the majority of their films have either disappointed or flat out bombed since 2012. Sony was actually quite disappointed with the box office of the Amazing Spider-Man. The next article will be talking about the sequel and she makes it sound like Sony is not at all happy with the performance of that one either. And apparently Amy Pascal is on thin ice and very likely to lose her job.

 

[UltimateWebhead]

Nikki Finke is writing a series of articles about how much of a mess it is behind the scenes at Sony Pictures and how the majority of their films have either disappointed or flat out bombed since 2012. Sony was actually quite disappointed with the box office of the Amazing Spider-Man. The next article will be talking about the sequel and she makes it sound like Sony is not at all happy with the performance of that one either. And apparently Amy Pascal is on thin ice and very likely to lose her job.

That was an interesting article. I'll be on the lookout for Part 2. I'm not surprised to see that Sony is not happy with ASM2--it had a dismal BO; one that is on a steady decline from each previous Spidey movie. The production troubles are evident in the final product of both ASM films, that's easy to see, but I hope the next article gives some more insight.

 

[Erzengel]

I didn't like Pascal's answer as to why TASM2 performed poorly, citing Captain America and the other competition.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

A source said the film's final tally fell $100 million below internal predictions.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/spider-man-fatigue-whats-behind-720365

Yikes.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I do remember a number of sources stating before the movie came out that Sony needed $700 million to just about break even... but in order for this movie to be a real success it needed at least $800 million.

Let face it, Sony was banking on a billion with this thing. The release date change could be just the start of a very messy road ahead to The Amazing Spider-Man 3.

 

[Spider-knight]

I don't think so,. With the troubles coming into Sony hopefully there'll be a chance for the third movie to be successful

 

[sf2]

wow. GOTG is gonna make more that TASM2!!!???

never see this coming.


btw, one of the direction spidey can go.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=772604226137707&fref=

 

[hippie_hunter]

Deadline is reporting that in response to the poor domestic performance of the Amazing Spider-Man 2 is the reason why they have been making recent moves of pushing it back to 2018 while focusing on other characters within the Spidey universe. While the overseas audience has grown, the fact that the domestic audience has shrunk considerably cannot be denied. They are currently working on retooling the franchise while trying not to completely overhaul it. They're going to give the character of Spider-Man a bit of a rest and bring it back in four years revamped, re-suited, and "rebooted" for a new generation of kids.

A Deadline source states: “The one thing you can’t ignore is the fans. There was a rejection going on with having another Spider-Man come out so soon, and you have to listen to the fans in this world. We all took a good look in the mirror and said, we have to try to have to figure it out and revamp it.”

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

So I take it that means Spidey won't be appearing in Sinister Six... but that Andrew Garfield will return in 2018 with a new direction, new look and possibly new director.

 

[hippie_hunter]

The article stated that Webb is staying to finish out his trilogy.