The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[psylockolussus]

I think you have horrible BO prediction skills. No offense. For starters, IM3 is more or less a lock for $1b already and $1.1-$1.2b is in play. It would have to have Kevin Ware-tier legs to only hit $800m. And that's about the least egregious thing on that list. But that's getting off topic.

I don't mind what you have to say. But in terms of the box-office performance of the films of MCU, its pretty obvious which movie is gonna perform the best and worst. Same with X-Men.

 

[Mr. Dent]

It's not as obvious as you would think, but indeed that is not an untrue statement on the surface. That said, the range of your numbers...a $250m to $275m prediction for GotG and some of your other numbers are pretty laughable to me, almost nonsensical. It's almost like you take the super conservative (to put it mildly) route with your numbers because you fail to see how they can perform better, on everything except the X-Men films which actually deserve the most scrutiny given their history.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

we're all just taking a punt here. predicting BO gross is hardly a science.

 

[Juicy J]

Yeah no offense psylock but I think you're off on most of those. Man of Steel only making 400 million? I call 600 minimum.
Also there's not a snowballs chance in hell the next Spider-man's going to do anything less than 750.
Repulsor is right, we really are taking stabs in the dark essentially, but there's enough information at our disposal and enough experience on our part to get a semi-accurate estimation on most of these.

 

[Mr. Dent]

we're all just taking a punt here. predicting BO gross is hardly a science.

His numbers are so skewed and somewhat biased it's funny. It's not a science per se', but there is a method and understanding to it and his predictions are just absurdly conservative.

 

[psylockolussus]

Obviously some people here are expert when it comes to box-office predictions. Then when the movie bombed, they'll blame the marketing or the movie not being good enough. Anyway we will see next year who's wrong or not.

His numbers are so skewed and somewhat biased it's funny. It's not a science per se', but there is a method and understanding to it and his predictions are just absurdly conservative.

Have you been here in Hype for more than a year? FYI, my predictions for the box-office numbers of Green Lantern, TASM, Thor, X-Men: First Class, Ghost Rider 2 were very close to their box-office numbers, especially domestic box-office. I was also one of those people who predicted that The Avengers would outgross The Dark Knight Rises and that TDKR wouldn't match the numbers of TDK. We'll see next year/this year (for Manof Steel) on who's right or wrong.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

i reckon future's past will give tasm2 a run for its money.

it has the team up appeal of the avengers, plus first class was well received, plus jennifer lawrence is huge right now (as she deserves to be)

 

[antonydelfini]

850 million. Hopefully more.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Obviously some people here are expert when it comes to box-office predictions. Then when the movie bombed, they'll blame the marketing or the movie not being good enough. Anyway we will see next year who's wrong or not.

Well obviously all predictions are made on the assumption the movie won't be a turd and have bad WOM.

Have you been here in Hype for more than a year? FYI, my predictions for the box-office numbers of Green Lantern, TASM, Thor, X-Men: First Class, Ghost Rider 2 were very close to their box-office numbers, especially domestic box-office. I was also one of those people who predicted that The Avengers would outgross The Dark Knight Rises and that TDKR wouldn't match the numbers of TDK. We'll see next year/this year (for Manof Steel) on who's right or wrong.

Judging from my join date I haven't. But yes we will see.

 

[psylockolussus]

i reckon future's past will give tasm2 a run for its money.

it has the team up appeal of the avengers, plus first class was well received, plus jennifer lawrence is huge right now (as she deserves to be)

Oh Absolutely! no doubt about it!

Well obviously all predictions are made on the assumption the movie won't be a turd and have bad WOM.

Sometimes, you could tell if a movie is going to suck based on who's directing the movie and who's writing the screenplay. So I wasn't surprised that G.I. Joe 2 sucked this year and Ghost Rider 2 was terrible.

 

[Mr. Dent]

So you must think James Gunn is horrible lol.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

A few notes about the potential box office numbers in comparison to the first ASM.

1. Both Jaime Foxx and Paul Giamatti are likely to garner more attention than Rhys Ifans.
2. Substantially less exuberant competition than Summer 2012. At least it won't be going head to head with Batman.
3. Marc Webb has seen some action with superhero flicks now. Hopefully he can only improve. Not to mention the bigger budget.
4. Anyone who has seen the first will return for Andrew and Emma if nothing else.
5. The "reboot-itis" so to speak, is essentially over. I assume there will be less complaints about no Raimi/Tobey.

I'd say it's likely to overtake the $750 million of its predecessor. But over $1 billion is hard to say. My best estimate is between $850-900million.

 

[chaseter]

$1.5 billion...haha wut!?

 

[Mr. Dent]

That's just there to fill out the poll bro. You don't have to choose it.

A few notes about the potential box office numbers in comparison to the first ASM.

1. Both Jaime Foxx and Paul Giamatti are likely to garner more attention than Rhys Ifans.
2. Substantially less exuberant competition than Summer 2012. At least it won't be going head to head with Batman.
3. Marc Webb has seen some action with superhero flicks now. Hopefully he can only improve. Not to mention the bigger budget.
4. Anyone who has seen the first will return for Andrew and Emma if nothing else.
5. The "reboot-itis" so to speak, is essentially over. I assume there will be less complaints about no Raimi/Tobey.

I'd say it's likely to overtake the $750 million of its predecessor. But over $1 billion is hard to say. My best estimate is between $850-900million.

Don't forget it has the Marvel headline May spot.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

That's just there to fill out the poll bro. You don't have to choose it.


Don't forget it has the Marvel headline May spot.

Also a plus, as that spot has seen two Marvel superhero films climb over a billion now.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

A few notes about the potential box office numbers in comparison to the first ASM.

1. Both Jaime Foxx and Paul Giamatti are likely to garner more attention than Rhys Ifans.
2. Substantially less exuberant competition than Summer 2012. At least it won't be going head to head with Batman.
3. Marc Webb has seen some action with superhero flicks now. Hopefully he can only improve. Not to mention the bigger budget.
4. Anyone who has seen the first will return for Andrew and Emma if nothing else.
5. The "reboot-itis" so to speak, is essentially over. I assume there will be less complaints about no Raimi/Tobey.

I'd say it's likely to overtake the $750 million of its predecessor. But over $1 billion is hard to say. My best estimate is between $850-900million.

it has a bigger budget?????

sorry, i just can't believe this will have a bigger budget than the first (230 million)

speaking of which, i still can't believe tasm1 cost that much.... squandered that budget unlike anything i've ever seen.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

it has a bigger budget?????

sorry, i just can't believe this will have a bigger budget than the first (230 million)

speaking of which, i still can't believe tasm1 cost that much.... squandered that budget unlike anything i've ever seen.

hmmm... do you think it will be a smaller budget?

 

[Repulsor Blast]

hmmm... do you think it will be a smaller budget?

i'm thinking the same to be honest.

230m is huge.

 

[Spiderdevil]

i'm thinking the same to be honest.

230m is huge.

Agree with you
Also agree on how TASM didn't use it properly,the movie didn't look like 230M movie,more like 200M movie.Which makes me think there is the cancelled SM4 money in there

On thing I totally admire about Marvel is their ability to use money so well,So surprising to see IM3 and TA produced for just 200M and 220M respectively,IM1 is also a bloody good movie for 150M

Although it felt they didn't utilize the budget properly for TIH,Thor and CapAm,Especially TIH(the CGI is horrendous)

About TASM2,I'll be happy with 220-230M budget,but I wont be mad if its 250M provided they use it properly and it shows

 

[Repulsor Blast]

Agree with you
Also agree on how TASM didn't use it properly,the movie didn't look like 230M movie,more like 200M movie.Which makes me think there is the cancelled SM4 money in there

On thing I totally admire about Marvel is their ability to use money so well,So surprising to see IM3 and TA produced for just 200M and 220M respectively,IM1 is also a bloody good movie for 150M

Although it felt they didn't utilize the budget properly for TIH,Thor and CapAm,Especially TIH(the CGI is horrendous)

About TASM2,I'll be happy with 220-230M budget,but I wont be mad if its 250M provided they use it properly and it shows

this. although i think tasm1 looks more like a 150 million dollar movie than a 200 dollar movie. iron man 3 had 200 million behind it and imo there is no comparison in terms of the "scale" or whatever you want to call it (also, surely the actors were paid more). man of steel is less than 200 million yet also looks like a much "bigger" film than tasm1.

that's why tasm2 better seriously ramp it up. if i go to see a 230 plus million dollar action film, i expect a certain level of wow factor. so far, the amount of cop cars in the truck chase scene is a positive indicator that they are translating their massive budget to the screen appropriately.

 

[PeterBenParker]

I only voted for a billion because I'm just too damn hopeful as a Spider-Man fan. My real prediction would be $800-850 million or maybe, just maybe $900 million.

My reasons (a lot of which were already mentioned):
1. Origin Story, Be Gone - A main problem people had with the first film was that it was doing the origin again, so naturally they skipped over it (and that it was a rehash, which is a very stupid remark against the first film).

Now this film has more of a chance because the main chunk of the origin is done, so this could get more attention than the first, which leads me to my next choice..

2. Star Power - The Amazing Spider-Man, to me, felt like an indie film that you'd see at a film festival, probably because of the cast. With this film, there's a lot more star-studded actors in this (Jamie Foxx, Paul Giamatti, Chris Cooper, etc.) while keeping the indy element from the first film. Again, this gives the sequel more attention from the GA.

3. Release Date - Spidey got squished last year, mostly due to the behemoths known as The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises being people's most anticipated comic book movie. Luckily though, it was still a box office success so I digress. At least this time around, the competition isn't too crazy so it has more of a chance to garner some $$.

4. Sam Raimi, Be Gone - The GA loved Sam Raimi's Spider-Man, and a lot of them were not in favor of that franchise being rebooted, so it was just another mark on the first film. It's now 11 years since Spider-Man hit the big screen, 9 years since Spider-Man 2 and 6 years since Spider-Man 3 - Case in point, I think it's time to get over the fact that Raimi's series is long dead.

With that in mind, this could be the best opportunity for the sequel.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

310 m domestic
560 m overseas

870 m worldwide

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Well it's safe to say most are being reasonable.

67% of voters voted between 800-900 m.

 

[TheWallCrawler]

one thing is for sure, no matter how good, it will not get a billion. And that is purely because of the reaction to the last film

 

[Arachnid]

$850m

I think one of the main reasons it will gross more than TASM is because it will have some better legs.

TASM was only out 2 1/2 weeks before the mammoth of TDKR was released.

TASM2 won't have any "huge" competition. Yes, Godzilla 2 weeks after and DOFP 3 weeks after, but neither of those are huge blockbusters. Also, as of right now, there is nothing big opening in the week after. So most likley TASM2 will repeat.