The Dark Knight Rises The Box Office Thread

[Blue Sugar]

Since most people here are Americans I think they underestimate foreign box office. Especially those thinking The Avengers will be big competition. I live in Sweden and here Hulk is the only superhero of Avengers that is really known (before the Iron Man movies) while Batman is an established icon that has only grown with the Nolan movies. And when you ask people about what big movies are coming out in the future many people mention TDK 2.

 

[dark_b]

TDKR is a lock for biggest movie of 2012. has nothing to do with movie you like more. its just normal math. after TDK every movie would be huge.

 

[Blue Sugar]

Yeah I mean I have a friend who really doesn't care about Batman at all in general but totally loved TDK, definitely gonna see TDKR. I have a sister that loved TDK, but haven't yet even seen BB, still gonna go watch TDKR. Neither of them even knows what Avengers is or that Spider-Man is getting a re-boot.

 

[helloiamben]

Even if TDKR bombs expectation wise, I still think it will earn back it's budget, every Batman film has. Good or bad, every Batman film has been a success except Batman and Robin. But even so, Batman and Robin had a great weekend before it went around that the film sucked.



The Dark Knight - $1,001,921,825 (budget $185 million to make)

Batman (1989) - $411,348,924 (budget $35 million to make)



Batman Begins - $372,710,015 (budget $150 million to make)

Batman Forever - $336,529,144 (budget $100 million to make)

Batman Returns - $266,822,354 (budget $80 million to make)






Batman and Robin - $238,207,122 (budget $125 million to make)





Hard to say if it will top TDK's though. Over 1 billion world wide is a ton of money.

 

[Wedge A.]

I think it will be around $900 million.

 

[TheDragonator]

Bourne Legacy might slow the film down a bit. Nothing like how Cars 2 and TF2 killed Green Lantern, but it might put some friction on the tracks. Expendables 2 is another one, but by then TDKR will very likely have at least met it's budget, so it's all well and good.

And then, when things are cooling down, Judge Dredd makes his big (and hopefully triumphant) return.

Damn, it's a great summer for geeks next year. In fact, the only dark spots are G.I Joe getting a sequel....for god knows what reason or how, and Ghost Rider, which looks at least better than the last one.

And 2013 looks great too!

....Holy ****, it's like each year is trying to top the last in geekiness.

 

[TLH]

Hard to say if it will top TDK's though. Over 1 billion world wide is a ton of money.

If the trend of sequels (not just second sequels) having huge leaps in international grosses continues, TDKR should easily eclipse 1 billion worldwide and beat TDKR. It's guaranteed $400m domestic and will probably go even higher. $500m is not out of the question.

Consider these International Gross jumps for anticipated blockbuster sequels:

Transformers 2: $400m
Transformers 3: $765m

Pirates 3: $654m
Pirates 4: $800m

Harry Potter 7 Part I: $660m
Harry Potter 7 Part II: $955m

And these examples are only from THIS YEAR. Nice and recent, which makes them all the more relevant.

So this said, I think we can expect something along these lines:

TDK: $468m
TDKR: $600m (at least)

Even so, strong international business will boost the overall gross and remove any domestic drop TDKR may or may not experience. 1 billion worldwide is happening, it's just a question of how much higher it will go. To be fair, this is done under the assumption that TDKR is at least a good film -- which I have little doubt about, as Christopher Nolan is a genius. XD

----

Also, TDK did not need to make $185m to break even. It needed to make about $360m to break even. You need to double the budget to get a rough idea of what the break even point for a film is. You do this to account for the cost of advertising, marketing, and theatre cuts.

 

[Liam_H]

^Your forgetting one crucial thing for citing all 3 examples above. They were all given the 3D treatment and international audiences are still embracing 3D, a lot more relative to audience in US. TDKR will increase but not as much as you're expecting because it's not in 3D.

 

[TheDragonator]

Yeah, TDKR isn't in 3D, so comparing movies to sequels with a 3D boost...is completely useless.

 

[TLH]

^Counteracted/balanced by...

(1) The likelihood that TDKR will be a superior film with stronger WOM than the above three, perhaps with exception to HP7.

(2) TDKR will see a larger IMAX boost than the three films above (Pfister/Nolan love their IMAX cameras).

(3) TDKR will probably benefit from a slight ticket price increase from one year to the next

 

[Liam_H]

All three films you mentioned were released in IMAX and IMAX screens only account for a small percentage of overall screens, the boost is mainly from 3D not IMAX.

 

[TLH]

All three films you mentioned were released in IMAX and IMAX screens only account for a small percentage of overall screens, the boost is mainly from 3D not IMAX.

That still leaves two very good reasons why TDKR will see a comparably strong overseas increase.

But if you want non-3D examples, then here:

LOTR: TTT: $583m
LOTR: ROTK: $742m

Spider-Man 2: $410
Spider-Man 3: $554

Significant increases for both, and both were the final chapter of a trilogy, like TDKR. So there.

 

[BatFan88]

just 1billion again and nothing more i guess.

 

[rayc1971]

this is the will be billed the last nolan batfilm! which like the last potter will make a **** load of money!

 

[Naite22]

Jeez... TDKR will earn back its money EASILY! And it'll be one hell of a movie! It won't be better than TDK, I just don't see it happening. But I do however think it'll beat Begins. Either way, Nolan has already broken the infamous "superhero-trilogy-curse!". There's no way in hell this movie will be bad. It'll be BAD_ASS at its WORST! My mind is at total ease about this fact. Shame on any one thinking differently.

 

[Liam_H]

People said the same thing about the X-Men and Spider-Man series so you never know.

 

[blueblazer2]

I remember three years ago people on these boards were saying That the Dark Knight would not beat Indiana Jones at the Box Office and IronMan had a bigger fan than Batman. And it's Dark tone would hurt itself at the Box Office Lol.

 

[Green Day]

I feel it will be in the range of 900m-1B

 

[miggizle85]

Before I stat my prediction let's take a look at what TDKR has going for it that should lead people to beleive it will surpass TDK's numbers, and then take a look at that it has going against it

For it:
-Sequal to a $1 billion movie
-Last film in a trilogy
-Is considered the clear cut "Most Anticipated Movie" of the year (where TDK wasn't. Indy 4 had that title with most media outlets)
-Has Catwoman (finally a female role that doesn't suck.... hopefully)
-Has JGL.... ladies love JGL (moreso that TDK's equivalent: Aaron Eckhart
-Has a football scene. Americans love football.
-Nolan has grown Worldwide (TDK made $468 million overseas, Inception made $532 million - not bad for a non-Batman, non-sequal, completely original movie)

Against it
-More competition around release time (although to be fair most people though X-Files 2, Hellboy 2, The Mummy 4, and Star Wars Clone Wars would put up more of a fight)
-No Joker (Bane may be badass but he's no Joker)
-No unfortunate death of a lead actor (yet.... <- terrible joke I know)
-No Ledger in general... ladies love Ledger

All that being said here is my prediction:
Opening Day - $105 million (Potter Will fall)
Opening Weekend - $220 million (Potter Will fall)
Total U.S. - $750 million (So close but "Dancing with Smurfs in Space" did not fall)
Total Overseas - $1.4 billion (did I mention Nolan has grown overseas?)
Total Worldwide - 2.15 billion (not bad for a non-3D, non-bright blue, non-fairy tale movie about a brooding man in black)

My prediction may seem overzealous, but that's honestly what I see happening for TDKR in a best case scenerio. That being that
1. It's hyped from now until release time (that second trailer better be 10x better than the first one was)
2. It isn't banned in any countries (come on China. Why you no rike Batman? <- bad joke I know)
3 the movies released in August suck (which they usually do).
4 and MOST important of all..... it can't suck (please for the love of all that is sacred in this world, please do not suck TDKR!)

 

[Blue Sugar]

My broad guess is more than Inception but less than TDK.

 

[jmc]

Before I stat my prediction let's take a look at what TDKR has going for it that should lead people to beleive it will surpass TDK's numbers, and then take a look at that it has going against it

For it:
-Sequal to a $1 billion movie
-Last film in a trilogy
-Is considered the clear cut &quot;Most Anticipated Movie&quot; of the year (where TDK wasn't. Indy 4 had that title with most media outlets)
-Has Catwoman (finally a female role that doesn't suck.... hopefully)
-Has JGL.... ladies love JGL (moreso that TDK's equivalent: Aaron Eckhart
-Has a football scene. Americans love football.
-Nolan has grown Worldwide (TDK made $468 million overseas, Inception made $532 million - not bad for a non-Batman, non-sequal, completely original movie)

Against it
-More competition around release time (although to be fair most people though X-Files 2, Hellboy 2, The Mummy 4, and Star Wars Clone Wars would put up more of a fight)
-No Joker (Bane may be badass but he's no Joker)
-No unfortunate death of a lead actor (yet.... <- terrible joke I know)
-No Ledger in general... ladies love Ledger

All that being said here is my prediction:
Opening Day - $105 million (Potter Will fall)
Opening Weekend - $220 million (Potter Will fall)
Total U.S. - $750 million (So close but &quot;Dancing with Smurfs in Space&quot; did not fall)
Total Overseas - $1.4 billion (did I mention Nolan has grown overseas?)
Total Worldwide - 2.15 billion (not bad for a non-3D, non-bright blue, non-fairy tale movie about a brooding man in black)

My prediction may seem overzealous, but that's honestly what I see happening for TDKR in a best case scenerio. That being that
1. It's hyped from now until release time (that second trailer better be 10x better than the first one was)
2. It isn't banned in any countries (come on China. Why you no rike Batman? <- bad joke I know)
3 the movies released in August suck (which they usually do).
4 and MOST important of all..... it can't suck (please for the love of all that is sacred in this world, please do not suck TDKR!)

There is no way in hell it makes even half of that let alone all of it. $2 Billion? No way, and opening weekend of over $200 million? Hell no. There's optimistic and then there's just plain crazy talk.

 

[Micromind]

If they had planned to release this movie in 3D format and If this movie had a release date of Avengers - which has very little competition for almost Two months, then I would have said that there is a possibility of this movie (TDKR) making a bit more than a billion dollars.

As things are right now, I would say it will make slightly more than Inception but Less than TDK (I am talking about worldwide collections.)

The movie will benefit If WB attaches the trailer for Man of Steel with TDKR.

 

[miggizle85]

There is no way in hell it makes even half of that let alone all of it. $2 Billion? No way, and opening weekend of over $200 million? Hell no. There's optimistic and then there's just plain crazy talk.

Come see me on July 21st, and we'll see just how crazy it is. I was one of the few who predicted that TDK would have the #1 Opening Weekend of All-Time and also predicted that it would earn $1 billion worldwide. Beleive me, people thought I was crazy then too. Sure I wasn't exactly correct with my prediction then (I predicted a $180 million OW, and $1.2 billion World Wide) but I wasn't off by that much.

 

[jmc]

Come see me on July 21st, and we'll see just how crazy it is. I was one of the few who predicted that TDK would have the #1 Opening Weekend of All-Time and also predicted that it would earn $1 billion worldwide. Beleive me, people thought I was crazy then too. Sure I wasn't exactly correct with my prediction then (I predicted a $180 million OW, and $1.2 billion World Wide) but I wasn't off by that much.

Mate, you're talking about double the box office of the previous movie. In order for it to crack 2 Billion dollars (I can't even believe I'm discussing this) it would have to be pulling in tens of millions of dollars every week for several months and it's weekly drop off rate would have to be in the singles digits. There are 3 things certain in life - death, taxing and Rises not making $2 billion.

 

[miggizle85]

Mate, you're talking about double the box office of the previous movie. In order for it to crack 2 Billion dollars (I can't even believe I'm discussing this) it would have to be pulling in tens of millions of dollars every week for several months and it's weekly drop off rate would have to be in the singles digits. There are 3 things certain in life - death, taxing and Rises not making $2 billion.

And TDK made TRIPLE of what Begins made. Trust me I heard all the "you're crazy", "there's no way", and "gaurantee you that it won't happen" responses back then too. Yet my prediction wasn't as crazy as they thought it was.

Keep in mind however that I my prediction for TDKR was based a Best case scenerio, and then listed what that meant. Also $2 billion worldwide isn't impossible. Avatar made $2 billion overseas ALONE. I'm not saying TDKR will be Avatar I'm just saying it's not impossible.

I've said my peace. $100+ million Opening day, $210+ million opening weekend, $750-ish million US total, $1.4-ish billion international, and $2.15 billion worldwide total. I may be off, but don't be surprised if my "crazy" prediction isn't off by much... again.