The Dark Knight Rises The Box Office Thread

[Bat]

I think TDKR will do it. The last Nolan-Batman film in IMAX. Who isn't going to want to see that opening weekend? Once tickets go on sale it's going to get crazy. Everyone will want to see this in IMAX.

 

[GamingFreak]

Whether it'll surpass TDK's domestic record is anyone's guess but it'll surely better TDK's overseas record.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I think TDKR will do it. The last Nolan-Batman film in IMAX. Who isn't going to want to see that opening weekend? Once tickets go on sale it's going to get crazy. Everyone will want to see this in IMAX.

Imax is too numerous (relative to 3D) to make as much of a dent.

 

[Tony Stark]

Honestly with the way opening weekends records have been falling left and right these past few years i feel a film having very strong legs is becoming more impressive to me.

I think 2nd weekend box office is the better determinant now to a film's success. There have been too many one weekend wonders followed by 60%+ drops.

TDK previously held the largest 2nd week gross ever before avatar slightly overtook it. If tdkr can take it back that's a great sign to this film making huge numbers.

Adjusted for inflation Spider-man 1 had the lowest 2nd week drop, and by far the lowest percentage drop for a comic book film that I really don't see anyone matching, of 34%.

TDK had an impressive 2nd week but it had an over 50% drop which is common for most comic book films. 55% is about average for a CBM, so unless you get a Hulk or a Wolverine 70% drop you're probably OK.

Films like HP7, Twilight, and HG are a totally different beast, and high 2nd week drops are the norm.

Bottom line the record is broke, TDKR will still come out, TDKR will make a ton of money even if Avengers ends up the highest grossing of the year.

 

[Bat]

Imax is too numerous (relative to 3D) to make as much of a dent.

IMAX is slightly more expensive than 3D. I think it'll make more than a dent because visually this film will be unlike anything we've seen in cinema with over an hour of IMAX footage and that's a huge selling point on top of it being the final movie in the trilogy. Needless to say it's a great summer for comic based films.

 

[redfirebird2008]

TDK had an impressive 2nd week but it had an over 50% drop which is common for most comic book films.

It also had huge weekdays because kids were out of school. $80m from Monday through Thursday.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

IMAX is slightly more expensive than 3D. I think it'll make more than a dent because visually this film will be unlike anything we've seen in cinema with over an hour of IMAX footage and that's a huge selling point on top of it being the final movie in the trilogy. Needless to say it's a great summer for comic based films.

It doesn't matter how amazing it is visually. It won't magically increase the number of Imax theaters. It doesn't matter that Imax is more expensive than 3D. Again, too few screens to actually matter.

 

[redfirebird2008]

It doesn't matter how amazing it is visually. It won't magically increase the number of Imax theaters. It doesn't matter that Imax is more expensive than 3D. Again, too few screens to actually matter.

Correct. There are 300 IMAX screens vs. 3,000+ 3D screens.

 

[Tony Stark]

I've been calling it for weeks and now I'm almost sure of it. TDKR will have a $210+ million opening. The fact that Hunger Games, and Avengers have made a mockery of the old records is a clear sign to me that movies are going to be HUGE this year. Ticket inflation, 3D/IMAX premiums and just the lack of competition around the huge tentpoles is translating to outstanding numbers.

I'll even go as far as predict a $220 million opening weekend. You'll see. Come July 20th you can quote me on it. If I were the other studios I'd clear the way for TDKR. "Ice Age" and "Ted" might wanna think about moving it's release to July 4th, and "The Watch" and "Step Up" might wanna look for some cozy little spot in August.

Seriously, get over it. In order for TDKR to make that kind of dough it would have to slaughter attendance records that the theaters probably couldn't even support in the first place. And considering the audience bumb that happened from BB to TDK, you can't expect that same jump from TDK to this film. My guess is TDK maximized their audience and you'll be seeing a similar number. It's just like POTC 1 -> 2 ->3, no 3 sequels rarely grow the audience that much.

Avengers and Hunger Games did not make a "mockery of the old records" any more than TDK did. All these movies play by the same rules.

Avengers could have been alot bigger than it was considering it was a smaller release than TDK was, and most theaters were selling out.

 

[Iceman]

Whether it'll surpass TDK's domestic record is anyone's guess but it'll surely better TDK's overseas record.

Uh yeah, in like 2 days time lol.

 

[Tony Stark]

It also had huge weekdays because kids were out of school. $80m from Monday through Thursday.

Agreed, that did effect things, but all I'm saying is I don't see another 34% 2nd week drop for a CBM film, at any time of the year. The norm is 48%-70%, depending on WOM.

 

[Tony Stark]

IMAX is slightly more expensive than 3D. I think it'll make more than a dent because visually this film will be unlike anything we've seen in cinema with over an hour of IMAX footage and that's a huge selling point on top of it being the final movie in the trilogy. Needless to say it's a great summer for comic based films.

There's not nearly as many IMAX screens compared to 3D capable screens.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Agreed, that did effect things, but all I'm saying is I don't see another 34% 2nd week drop for a CBM film, at any time of the year. The norm is 48%-70%, depending on WOM.

Yeah, the market is quite a bit more frontloaded than 2002.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, the market is quite a bit more frontloaded than 2002.

The last Twilight will do $80m at midnight and that'll be it. Not a penny more. t:

 

[redfirebird2008]

The last Twilight will do $80m at midnight and that'll be it. Not a penny more. t:

 

[Liam_H]

That would probably still be more than what it costs to make the film.

 

[redfirebird2008]

That would probably still be more than what it costs to make the film.

haha. They are having to shell out quite a bit these days because the actors have figured out they can make demands.

 

[Liam_H]

I'd demand the same for all the grief that franchise can bring to those actors. Its weird seeing Kristen Stewart smiling so much promoting the SW&H. It'll be back to doom and gloom when November comes around.

 

[Green Day]

OW 150
DOM 400
OS 530
WW 930
Not as big as dark knight

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Quite a few of my favourite directors are getting older now and I get the feeling they are losing a tiny bit of their edge/coolness on stories. They are still capable of making good films, just not cool films. Maybe a bit too family friendly, maybe just a little bit naff!

Right there with you. I've been noticing a few favorite directors of mine as well seem to be losing their touch. I guess it makes you appreciate what one has now more than ever. No kingdom lasts forever.

I don't know if everyone likes it but the interactions between [BLACKOUT]nearly all the characters on the helicarrier is one of my favourite bits of the whole film. Just love how all these greats of Marvel history are bouncing off one another.[/BLACKOUT] Humour is normally very bad in comic films, not because it shouldn't be there..it's just often poorly executed or overdone to the point of taking the weight out of the serious stuff. This is the best execution I can remember outside of a comedy, and it's also better than many modern comedies out there. The action is of course crazy in scale but still well choreographed. It's quite easy to keep track of where everyone is supposed to be at any point in time (something Michael Bay is hilariously bad at). Avengers is simply the comic I read come to life.

I was delighted by the interactions. I cherished them. For instance, Iron Man's quips in the forest with Thor and Captain were hilarious and meritorious. [blackout]The Shakespeare in the forest line killed. I almost burst out laughing.[/blackout] While Ruffalo stole the show, I absolutely loved RDJ's performance in the movie (Hemsworth did great too).

Michael Bay can be creative when arriving to action sequences but at times he can get reckless, and Whedon's second unit embarrassed him in that regard. DOTM and ROTF had immensely-sized battles but they were 'mindless' for the most part.

I just had a few gripes outside the The Avengers' first act:

Spoiler

• The threat felt minuscule, especially after seeing The Hulk and Iron Man in action. The alien army could be compared to the battle droids from Star Wars.

• Thor's 'Deus Ex Machina' return. It was too convenient.

• Coulson's death. Some are gonna hate me but I felt nothing for the character and I fail to see why the heroes would band together because of his death.

Nolan keeps a great urgency through his films that keeps the tension (and awesomeness) rolling non stop. Don't think I've had a chance to breathe since the end of Batman Begins! I've spent a few decades arguing with people that Batman written properly, seriously and with a dark tone would be one of the biggest films ever. Im glad Nolan proved me right.

It's the reason why Nolan is one of my all-time favorite directors already. He's always dedicated and focused to his project and his passion for cinema keeps him motivated in making fantastic movies.

To move back to the topic, I think TDKR is still on for a billion, even if it has to get a bigger chunk of that from overseas. To get anywhere near to TDK's domestic gross I think it's going to have to be at least as good if not a bit better than TDK. I think that's going to depend a lot on how Nolan ends the trilogy and I'm confident as I've always said resolving plotlines and ending films is one of Nolan's biggest strengths.

One of Nolan's strengths has always been endings but this film has me nervous just a bit solely because of the rumors I've heard revolving around the ending.

So far though, the reception has been stellar. If it made grown men tear up, then I say we're off to a tremendous start. A billion is definitely possible now.

Dude it's just amazing that we have the luxury of discussing two of the very best comic properties that are now absolute heavyweights of Hollywood. Good times man.

Hell yeah! It's an extravagant time for us comic book fans. Who would have thought it a decade ago? An Avengers' adaptation was considered to be impossible (you'd get slapped for even mentioning it) or a fanboy's wetdream and Batman had endured a box office disaster. Nobody thought Batman would ever recover from the dreaded Batman & Robin film.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

OW 150
DOM 400
OS 530
WW 930
Not as big as dark knight

Doubt it.

 

[Joker594]

So far though, the reception has been stellar. If it made grown men tear up, then I say we're off to a tremendous start. A billion is definitely possible now.

I keeping hearing references to a few people who have seen a cut of the film. I must've missed this, but what was the gist of what these people said?

 

[Liam_H]

Michael Bay can be creative when arriving to action sequences but at times he can get reckless, and Whedon's second unit embarrassed him in that regard. DOTM and ROTF had immensely-sized battles but they were 'mindless' for the most part.

The Rock. Oh how I wish he could make such a movie again.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

I keeping hearing references to a few people who have seen a cut of the film. I must've missed this, but what was the gist of what these people said?

I heard two (maybe a third, if true) accounts. Thus far, the WB screening has been confirmed.

 

[Joker594]

I heard two (maybe a third, if true) accounts. Thus far, the WB screening has been confirmed.

And these people. . .cried? Tears of joy I hope?