The Iran Thread

[Hobgoblin]

They aren't gonna help us with anything, whether they love our leaders or hate them. We're on our own from now on.

That's why it's time for us to start pulling back from policing the world, imo. Why should we try to protect a world that hates us?

I suppose the answer to that would be that we dont want to repeat the mistakes of the 1930's. Its better to face a foe before they unleash hell.

 

[Paradoxium]

If you ask me, it was more of a result of the Treaty of Versailles.

 

[Hobgoblin]

If you ask me, it was more of a result of the Treaty of Versailles.

That and the appeasement mindset of the 30's. I think Churchill was the only one that saw Hitler for the danger he was.

We are either in that kind of situation now or in another pre Iraq War mindset. Either way, its bad.

 

[Paradyme]

Iran Warns U.S., U.K. of Retaliation After Attack
The chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guard on Monday accused the United States, Britain and Pakistan of having links with the Sunni militants responsible for a homicide bombing that killed five senior Guard commanders and 37 others.

"Behind this scene are the American and British intelligence apparatus and there will have to be retaliatory measures to punish them," Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari said, vowing a "crushing" response.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said those behind Sunday's bombing are hiding across the border in Pakistan, and in a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart on Monday he demanded their arrest.

"The presence of terrorist elements in Pakistan is not justifiable and the Pakistani government needs to help arrest and punish the criminals as soon as possible," state TV quoted Ahmadinejad as telling Asif Ali Zardari.

Earlier Monday, an Iranian military official went as far as to raise the prospect of a possible military offensive into Pakistan against the group blamed for the attack.

"There is even unanimity that these operations (could) take place in Pakistan territory," the ISNA news agency quoted MP Payman Forouzesh as saying.


The Sunni rebel group known as Jundallah, or Soldiers of God, has waged a low-level insurgency in Iran's southeast to protest what it says is the government's persecution of an ethnic minority there claimed responsibility for Sunday's attack. The claim was posted Monday on an Islamic Web site that usually publishes Al Qaeda statements. Its authenticity could not be verified.

The official IRNA news agency said Sunday the dead included the deputy commander of the Guard's ground force, Gen. Noor Ali Shooshtari, as well as a chief provincial Guard commander for the area, Rajab Ali Mohammadzadeh. The other dead were Guard members or local tribal leaders. More than two dozen others were wounded, state radio reported.

The headquarters of Iran's armed forces blamed the bombing on "terrorists" backed by "the Great Satan America and its ally Britain," Fars News Agency said Sunday.

"Not in the distant future we will take revenge," Iran's statement read, according to Reuters. Iran's forces claim the country "will clear this region from terrorists and criminals."

"The global arrogance, with the provocation of its local mercenaries, targeted the meeting of the Guard with local tribal leaders," said the Guard statement read out on state TV.

The United States, however, condemned the attacks on Sunday and denied any involvement.

"We condemn this act of terrorism and mourn the loss of innocent lives. Reports of alleged U.S. involvement are completely false," U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said in a brief statement.

The Revoutionary Guard commanders were inside a car on their way to a meeting with local tribal leaders in the Pishin district near Iran's border with Pakistan when an attacker with explosives blew himself up, IRNA said.

Iran's state-owned English language TV channel, Press TV, said there were two simultaneous explosions: one at the meeting and another targeting an additional convoy of Guards on their way to the gathering.

The region's top prosecutor was quoted by the semi-official ISNA news agency as saying the Sunni rebel group Jundallah claimed responsibility for the blast.

There was no immediate statement directly from the group.

The group accuses Iran's *****e-dominated government of persecution and has carried out attacks against the Revolutionary Guard and *****e targets in the southeast.

That campaign is one of several ethnic and religious small-scale insurgencies in Iran that have fueled sporadic and sometimes deadly attacks in recent years — though none have amounted to a serious threat to the government.
The Guard commanders targeted Sunday were heading to a meeting with local tribal leaders to promote unity between the *****e and Sunni Muslim communities.

In April, Iran increased security in Sistan-Baluchistan Province, at the center of the tension, by placing it under the command of the Guard, which took over from local police forces.

The 120,000-strong Revolutionary Guard controls Iran's missile program and has its own ground, naval and air units.

Iran's parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani, condemned the assassination of the Guard commanders, saying the bombing was aimed at disrupting security in southeastern Iran.

"We express our condolences for their martyrdom. ... The intention of the terrorists was definitely to disrupt security in Sistan-Baluchistan

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,568482,00.html

 

[Ahura Mazda]

It's great the spin they can put on almost any news.

 

[Hobgoblin]

I doubt Iran will want to start any crap with Pakistan right now. They are too focused on their nuclear power plant and dont want to give us or anyone a reason to bomb the nuke sites. Not that the Pakistani military would do the retaliation, most likely the US would. Though I think if Israel tried anything, Iran would gladly use it as an excuse to attack them.

 

[Grievous]

I would not blame Israel if they attacked, Iran been talking about Blowing them off the map. So what are they to do? What for them to attack first?

 

[Hobgoblin]

I would not blame Israel if they attacked, Iran been talking about Blowing them off the map. So what are they to do? What for them to attack first?

I agree. There is no good outcome in this situation. Maybe diplomacy can delay things but I dont think Iran sees negotiations as especially interesting.

 

[Grievous]

I agree. There is no good outcome in this situation. Maybe diplomacy can delay things but I dont think Iran sees negotiations as especially interesting.

Not to add that if one Nation trys to wipe the other one out than other Nations will have to get involved. I say we are looking at a possible third world war if things don't change.

 

[omid17]

Top Iranian negotiator praises plan to ship uranium abroad

 

[Paradyme]

Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report
Exclusive: Watchdog fears Tehran has key component to put bombs in missiles

The UN's nuclear watchdog has asked Iran to explain evidence suggesting that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design, the Guardian has learned.

The very existence of the technology, known as a "two-point implosion" device, is officially secret in both the US and Britain, but according to previously unpublished documentation in a dossier compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian scientists may have tested high-explosive components of the design. The development was today described by nuclear experts as "breathtaking" and has added urgency to the effort to find a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis.

The sophisticated technology, once mastered, allows for the production of smaller and simpler warheads than older models. It reduces the diameter of a warhead and makes it easier to put a nuclear warhead on a missile.

Documentation referring to experiments testing a two-point detonation design are part of the evidence of nuclear weaponisation gathered by the IAEA and presented to Iran for its response.

The dossier, titled "Possible Military Dimensions of Iran's Nuclear Program", is drawn in part from reports submitted to it by western intelligence agencies.
The agency has in the past treated such reports with scepticism, particularly after the Iraq war. But its director general, Mohamed ElBaradei, has said the evidence of Iranian weaponisation "appears to have been derived from multiple sources over different periods of time, appears to be generally consistent, and is sufficiently comprehensive and detailed that it needs to be addressed by Iran".

Extracts from the dossier have been published previously, but it was not previously known that it included documentation on such an advanced warhead. "It is breathtaking that Iran could be working on this sort of material," said a European government adviser on nuclear issues.

James Acton, a British nuclear weapons expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: "It's remarkable that, before perfecting step one, they are going straight to step four or five ... To start with more sophisticated designs speaks of level of technical ambition that is surprising."
Another western specialist with extensive knowledge of the Iranian programme said: "It raises the question of who supplied this to them. Did AQ Khan [a Pakistani scientist who confessed in 2004 to running a nuclear smuggling ring] have access to this, or is it another player?"

The revelation of the documents comes at a time of growing tension. Tehran has so far rejected a deal that would remove most of its enriched uranium stockpile for a year and replace it with nuclear fuel rods which would be much harder to turn into weapons. The Iranian government has also balked at negotiations, which were due to begin last week, over its continued enrichment of uranium, in defiance of UN security council resolutions.

There are fears in Washington and London that if no deal is reached to at least temporarily defuse tensions by the end of December, Israel could set in motion plans to take military action aimed at setting back the Iranian programme by force, with incalculable consequences for the Middle East.

Iran has rejected most of the IAEA material on weaponisation as forgeries, but has admitted carrying out tests on multiple high-explosive detonations synchronised to within a microsecond. Tehran has told the agency that there is a civilian application for such tests, but has so far not provided any evidence for them.

Western weapons experts say there are no such civilian applications, but the use of co-ordinated detonations in nuclear warheads is well known. They compress the fissile core, or pit, of the warhead until it reaches critical mass.
A US national intelligence estimate two years ago said that Iran had explored nuclear warhead design for several years but had probably stopped in 2003. British, French and German officials have said they believe weaponisation continued after that date and may still be continuing.

In September, a German court found a German-Iranian businessman, Mohsen Vanaki, guilty of brokering the sale of dual-use equipment with possible applications in developing nuclear weapons. The equipment included specialised high-speed cameras, of the sort used to develop implosion devices, as well as radiation detectors. According to a report by the Institute for Science and International Security, the German foreign intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst, testified at the trial that there was evidence that Iran's weapons development was continuing.

The IAEA is seeking to find out what the scientists and the institutions involved in the experiments are doing now, but has so far not been given a response. The agency's repeated requests to interview Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, whose name features heavily in the IAEA's documentation and who is widely seen as the father of the Iranian nuclear programme, have been turned down.

The agency has also asked Iran to explain evidence that a Russian weapons expert helped Iranian technicians to master synchronised high-explosive detonations.

The first implosion devices, like the "Fat Man" bomb dropped on Nagasaki on 9 August 1945, used 32 high-explosive hexagons and pentagons arrayed around a plutonium core like the panels of a football. The IAEA has a five-page document describing experimentation on such a hemispherical array of explosives.

According to a diplomat familiar with the IAEA documentation, the evidence also points to experiments with a two-point detonation system that represents "a more elegant solution" to the challenges of making a nuclear warhead, but it is much harder to achieve. It is used in conjunction with a non-spherical pit, in the shape of a rugby ball, or explosives in that shape wrapped around a spherical pit, and it works by compressing the pit from both ends.The IAEA has expressed "serious concern" about Iran's failure to give an account of the research its scientists have carried out.

Descriptions of "two-point implosion" warheads designs have occasionally appeared in the public domain (there are extensive descriptions on Wikipedia) and they were first developed by US scientists in the 1950s, but it remains an offence for American officials or even non-governmental nuclear experts with security clearance to discuss them.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/05/iran-tested-nuclear-warhead-design

 

[Hobgoblin]

So the Iranians have an advanced warhead when they shouldnt be so advanced. Sounds like either they have been spying on a nation with higher technology or someone sold the technology to them. The second possibility would be especially bad if anything happens between Iran and Israel. It just widens the potential conflict.

 

[SuBe]

Iran Begins Large-Scale War Games

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,576195,00.html

 

[Hobgoblin]

Chris Matthews discusses Israeli action against Iran.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

Responding to the poll:

When it comes to the middle east, I'm real cynical. I have a very hard time believing the US or Europe cares at all for the Iranian people. They'd just as well be happy if it was taken over by some repressive secularist government as they would be by another more 'open' Islamist party.

So who cares if Iranian government hangs dissidents as long as we get some of that oil...we seem to be doing the same thing in Saudi Arabia when they behead and torture their own dissidents and their Mullahs shout death to Israel.

 

[Hobgoblin]

While you are right (Iran was our ally under the shah, as was Iraq in the 80's under Saddam), Iran isnt our puppet. Very much the opposite. Even that wouldnt be bad, except that they are a loose cannon. How do you deal with a loose cannon when it refuses to even deal with us?

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

While you are right (Iran was our ally under the shah, as was Iraq in the 80's under Saddam), Iran isnt our puppet. Very much the opposite. Even that wouldnt be bad, except that they are a loose cannon. How do you deal with a loose cannon when it refuses to even deal with us?

A loose cannon is Somalia, Libya, or Afghanistan prior to 9/11. Iran is a giant almost industrialized nation with modern schools, a very loud and strong underground, and a healthy middle class. Just like the Iranians revolted when the Shah was in power, they'll revolt and kick the Mullahs out the same way. Isn't it always amusing when Ahmadinejad blasts America or Europe at the same time when unemployment reaches an all time high or the economy is stagnant? I mean what better way to get the angry unemployed youth and masses busy than by blaming the US or Europe?

This type of religious government does not work in the long run without change. The Saudis realize this and thats why they're trying to open Co-Ed Universities and are trying to attract people from around the world to their new Desert oasis.

Honestly, our recent efforts to bring western style democracy to countries not ready for that kind of social change, ends up pretty dissapointing. Frankly, it ends up becoming democracy's bastard child. Iraq's quasi-religious, multi-ethnic powder keg is ready to explode and Afghanistan remains incapable of maintaining security or peace.

 

[Marx]

Iran Begins Large-Scale War Games

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,576195,00.html

I just heard about this...

 

[Hobgoblin]

A loose cannon is Somalia, Libya, or Afghanistan prior to 9/11. Iran is a giant almost industrialized nation with modern schools, a very loud and strong underground, and a healthy middle class. Just like the Iranians revolted when the Shah was in power, they'll revolt and kick the Mullahs out the same way. Isn't it always amusing when Ahmadinejad blasts America or Europe at the same time when unemployment reaches an all time high or the economy is stagnant? I mean what better way to get the angry unemployed youth and masses busy than by blaming the US or Europe?

This type of religious government does not work in the long run without change. The Saudis realize this and thats why they're trying to open Co-Ed Universities and are trying to attract people from around the world to their new Desert oasis.

Honestly, our recent efforts to bring western style democracy to countries not ready for that kind of social change, ends up pretty dissapointing. Frankly, it ends up becoming democracy's bastard child. Iraq's quasi-religious, multi-ethnic powder keg is ready to explode and Afghanistan remains incapable of maintaining security or peace.

Iran's industry and technology has nothing to do with it being a loose cannon. When its leaders demand that another country be wiped off the map and seem to be making nuclear weapons to do just that, than they are a loose cannon. Oh, and supporting terrorist organizations, like Hamas.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

Iran's industry and technology has nothing to do with it being a loose cannon. When its leaders demand that another country be wiped off the map and seem to be making nuclear weapons to do just that, than they are a loose cannon. Oh, and supporting terrorist organizations, like Hamas.

Everybody who heard his speech in Persian knows thats not what he said at all and that was a notorious mistranslation. In fact, the word "map" , "Israel" and "wiped out" were never used.

His exact quote was "Rejime e eshghalgar e (al) Quds bayad az safaheh-ye roozgar mahv shavad. Which translates to: "The occupation of jerusalem by this regime must be removed from the pages of time." Which can be interpreted that the oppression caused by occupation must be erased. It was said in context with oppression of the Palestinian people.

This brings up the whole issue of the Israeli lobby manufacturing consent against Iran and silencing widescale human rights abuses of Palestinians...but that is a whole other debate. Regardless, the real hypocracy lies in that lots of very powerful religious leaders in US-supported Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Pakistan (Note: Three of those countries had embassies for the Taliban prior to 9/11) have all called for the destruction of Israel and the wholesale slaughter of EVERY Jew (the latter of which Ahmadinejad has made clear is never his intent). Even some of the religious leaders in Afghanistan support the sentiment that the Jews must all be killed.

As for the nuclear issue, it is in the interest of Iran to build them to expand their cities and produce the energy it needs to grow their growing population. Iran is in the same position as Iraq was 10 years ago where they know that Europe/US has targeted their regime for elimination and the nuclear weapons is to thwart any large scale attack against them. It would idiotic for the Iranians to bomb Israel, because any bombing of Israel would mean widespread killing of Palestinians as well. Not only that, the nuclear fall out if their bombs would have missed, could hit other Muslim countries. Their leader may make some caustic comments, but he is not an idiot.

So the real question is, why all the hubbub for Iran? Easy: ENERGY GEOPOLITICS. Thats what it has ALWAYS been about.

Nobody in the US seems to care that some of the largest militant opposition to the Islamist regime are: Socialists and Terrorists (Baluchi Iranics and Ahvazi Arabs specifically). What regime would take over if the Islamists are taken down? Is Freedom and 'peace' their biggest goal? Lets get real.

 

[Marx]

US ISSUES WARNING TO IRAN
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ton-prepared-to-push-for-crippling-sanctions/

 

[Paradoxium]

Yea sanction them, you might as well start a war. It's gonna unite the people in Iran. Kind of like all the death squads and drone bombing in Pakistan is pissing the **** out of them, and anti-American sentiment is really high there.

 

[Midnyte_Sun]

“Nothing that we contemplate or we would consider is aimed at causing greater harm for the Iranian people who have suffered enough as a result of repression of people’s efforts to express themselves peacefully since the elections on June 12th,” they said.

We'll see. The first people effected by sanctions are the poorest of society.

 

[Marx]

BREAKING NEWS!

THE IRANIAN CABINET HAS VOTED TO APPROVE THE CONSTRUCTION OF 10 MORE URANIUM ENRICHMENT PLANTS.

 

[Darthphere]

Ok.