Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tony Stark]

After it's better than expected M-Day weekend (it was helped by Persia bombing and it will be helped next weekend because nothing is coming out) it will difinately make more than my 308 projection. 318 to 328ish looks like it's in the cards now.

This Summer has been so freakin boring at the boxoffice. SATC 2 opened far lower than alot of people thought. It did less in five days than the first did in three. I wouldn't be surprised if it made less than 100mil. Persia bombed in it's opening weekend...unless it has long legs, which I am doubting right now but we well see. Although Shrek has had a boost from M-Day weekend it's still grossing less than Shrek 3 and it's still sold far less tickets. As I said though, the money matters more to the studio. Nothing has performed above expectations.

SATC2, is marketed at a specific demographic. It was never going to do as well as the first movie, and I immagine it will be the last in the series.

Video game adaptations are almost never successful. Mortal Kombat 1 which was a late summer release, is probably one of the lone success stories.

Shrek is another case of one time too many. For most film saga's 3 is enough. There's some excpetions like the Potter movies, but that's a notable exception.

I pretty much saw this coming from a mile away, as 90% of the stuff being released this summer is pure crap. IM2 will probably be one of the lone gems. TS3 has a chance, but don't discount that it could end up just like Shrek 3. Up was a pretty big success last summer but came short of 300 mil and that was with the 3D boost.

 

[LostSon88]

TS3 has a chance, but don't discount that it could end up just like Shrek 3.

Dude, you are SERIOUSLY underestimating the popularity of Toy Story and Pixar.

Pixar and TS are the golden standard of modern animation. And unlike Shrek, has a fanbase that expands over 3 generations--our parents, us and our kids. Also take into account the success of the original two films (again unlike Shrek which fizzled out after 'Shrek The Third')...TS3 has a huge wave of momentum.

This movie WILL be the biggest of the summer. I don't see anyone disputing that.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm not underestimating anything. My kids weren't born when the first movie came out, and only my oldest daughter was 1 when the second movie came out, yet they all love Toy Story.

That said the first three Shrek's did amazing numbers, especially for a CG animated movie, the likes of which no Pixar movie had done.

TS3 very well may be the biggest of the summer, but I will not be suprised if it ends up in the mid 200's either. The 3D may elevate the numbers, but like I say Up was huge, but didn't cross 300 mil.

 

[chiefchirpa]

I have no interest on Toy Story 3 or Cars 2. At least not as much interest of seeing Up, Wall-E, or Ratatouille. Those are fresh stuff. To me Pixar stuff loses its luster when it comes to sequel or really rehash.

 

[LostSon88]

You make it sound as if they saturate the market with sequels...

When up to this point the only sequel they've done was the very well received 'Toy Story 2'.

Although yeah, they're starting to change that trend now with the sequels to Cars and Monsters Inc. my point is that how can you say that they 'lose their luster' when it comes to sequels when they've only done it once? And as we all know, that one was hardly a 'rehash' of Toy Story 1.

 

[Tony Stark]

There are other Pixar sequels I would have wanted to see before TS3. Incredibles 2 would be top of the list, as far as that goes, but even Cars 2 before TS3.

 

[Catman]

318 to 328ish looks like it's in the cards now.

The first Iron Man grossed $318.4 million domestically and by this point had grossed $276.1 million. Adjusting for two years of inflation, Iron Man 2 is doing about the same. So, I think that Iron Man 2's final domestic gross will be about $321 million.

The good news is that the franchise held on to its fanbase, but the bad news is that it didn't increase like a lot of other sequels.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It held on to most of it's fanbase but it's going to sale slightly less tickets but yes it did hold on the vast majority of it's fanbase. The news would be better if it weren't for the less than steller reception from a big chunk of the said fanbase and the reviews. I will take back these words if it does really well on DVD (it's clearly not going to sale as well as the first so that isn't my threshhold for success) but I just see this as the end of the huge excitement for the franchise. Kinda like X3 and Spider-Man 3 ended the huge excitement over those franchises. I mean they will still make money but there lackluster movies ended up hurting the brand.

By the way, despite the fact that it bombed at the boxoffice I enjoyed Persia more than IM2 but thats just me. Not way more or anything because it is far from being a good movie but it's on the same level as Sherlock Holmes to me, it's a decent adventure film and nothing more.

 

[Weadazoid]

X3 and Spiderman 3 dropped the ball though. X 3 much more so

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

in no way shape or form should IM2 be included in the same sentence as SM3 and X3....those were just abominations to film making

 

[Iron_Stark]

They can and they will look at it as an underperforming movie. It's quite simple. The first movie cost $40 Million less than the second movie. You don't just throw $40 Million more at a movie and expect the same result as the first film. It's not a bomb by any stretch of the imagination, but how anyone can look at the increase in budget and theater count and say that the movie isn't performing below the expectations of the studio I have no clue.

As it was said before, it'll make a whole lot more world wide, and those extra 40 million, a good chunk of it went to the huge bump in salaries for RDJ, Paltrow and Favreau.

Would they have liked to be the next Avatar? Sure, who wouldn't. Will they go home and think about what needs to be improved on? Yes, anybody would be stupid not to.

Will they stay up at night from now on to the filming of the Avengers and IM3 thinking about the BO? NOPE.

 

[Iron_Stark]

in no way shape or form should IM2 be included in the same sentence as SM3 and X3....those were just abominations to film making

I agree with you but I wouldn't go that far.

Abominations to film making is a title reserved for both Fantastic Four movies.

 

[chiefchirpa]

You make it sound as if they saturate the market with sequels...

When up to this point the only sequel they've done was the very well received 'Toy Story 2'.

Although yeah, they're starting to change that trend now with the sequels to Cars and Monsters Inc. my point is that how can you say that they 'lose their luster' when it comes to sequels when they've only done it once? And as we all know, that one was hardly a 'rehash' of Toy Story 1.

Read the "To me". Of course your mileage may vary.

 

[chiefchirpa]

It held on to most of it's fanbase but it's going to sale slightly less tickets but yes it did hold on the vast majority of it's fanbase. The news would be better if it weren't for the less than steller reception from a big chunk of the said fanbase and the reviews. I will take back these words if it does really well on DVD (it's clearly not going to sale as well as the first so that isn't my threshhold for success) but I just see this as the end of the huge excitement for the franchise. Kinda like X3 and Spider-Man 3 ended the huge excitement over those franchises. I mean they will still make money but there lackluster movies ended up hurting the brand.

By the way, despite the fact that it bombed at the boxoffice I enjoyed Persia more than IM2 but thats just me. Not way more or anything because it is far from being a good movie but it's on the same level as Sherlock Holmes to me, it's a decent adventure film and nothing more.

Persia is as bland as an action movie can be. The characters had cookie-cutter personality, the ending is both predictable and boring. Plus they have a non-threatening geriatric as a villain. Of course because of those obvious factors the movie bombed.

IM2 is not a failure in any sense. RDJ is still the best superhero actor of all times and IM carries real world theme inside while not shedding its superhero background. Marvel would still hedge on IM as a more proven movie franchise than most of their franchises including Hulk, Thor, and Captain America. What they need for the eventual 3rd is a better cohesive script (dump Justin Theroux), better threatening villain (get an Asian genius match called Gene Khan), and longer screen time (150 minutes run this time).

 

[JKKS085]

Since this is still a "prediction" thread, I predict that the domestic box-office will reach 320,853,417 USD in 7 weeks.

 

[hatebox]

I'm not sure the foreign box office should be pushed too hard as a positive for IM2's performance - it's still only $15m ahead of the first one and the international well has really dried up given it's been out a lot longer than the US.

That said, Memorial Weekend was the first domestic drop by the film that was genuinely impressive, so let's see where it goes from there.

 

[hatebox]

The Weekend Warrior predicts $8.4m for this weekend. Its opening aside it's been fairly accurate with IM2 so far.

http://www.comingsoon.net/news/weekendwarriornews.php?id=66540

 

[Tony Stark]

SATC2 is going to have a 60% plus drop, I'd almost bet the farm on that. PoP will have a 50% plus drop. I don't see Marmaduke opening at 20 M. They may have been accurate with IM2 but I think they're off on their other predictions.

 

[Catman]

I just see this as the end of the huge excitement for the franchise.

I think Iron Man will be like Harry Potter in the sense that it'll continue to be highly successful but its fanbase will stay the same size.

 

[hatebox]

Boxofficemojo article on how it's generally been a lackluster start to this summer:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2801&p=.htm

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

As it was said before, it'll make a whole lot more world wide, and those extra 40 million, a good chunk of it went to the huge bump in salaries for RDJ, Paltrow and Favreau.

Would they have liked to be the next Avatar? Sure, who wouldn't. Will they go home and think about what needs to be improved on? Yes, anybody would be stupid not to.

Will they stay up at night from now on to the filming of the Avengers and IM3 thinking about the BO? NOPE.

You do know studio's only get 15% of the international gross dont you?

 

[Marvin]

Boxofficemojo article on how it's generally been a lackluster start to this summer:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2801&p=.htm

like I've been saying, IM followed by duds...every time.
if it was in spiderman 3's position it most likely wouldn't do as "well" as it does.

 

[Tony Stark]

like I've been saying, IM followed by duds...every time.
if it was in spiderman 3's position it most likely wouldn't do as "well" as it does.

Spider-man 3 had very little competition. Spider-man 3 was getting beat out by the likes of Mr. Brooks (remember that one? didn't think so) showing how flimsy the legs were.

So far IM2 hasn't lost out to anyone it shouldn't have, and held up better against movies that were supposed to be big hits.

 

[lespaul59]

It held on to most of it's fanbase but it's going to sale slightly less tickets but yes it did hold on the vast majority of it's fanbase. The news would be better if it weren't for the less than steller reception from a big chunk of the said fanbase and the reviews. I will take back these words if it does really well on DVD (it's clearly not going to sale as well as the first so that isn't my threshhold for success) but I just see this as the end of the huge excitement for the franchise. Kinda like X3 and Spider-Man 3 ended the huge excitement over those franchises. I mean they will still make money but there lackluster movies ended up hurting the brand.

By the way, despite the fact that it bombed at the boxoffice I enjoyed Persia more than IM2 but thats just me. Not way more or anything because it is far from being a good movie but it's on the same level as Sherlock Holmes to me, it's a decent adventure film and nothing more.

Wow two people on SHH actually agree with me on this, I figured I would be the only person with this opinion.

Persia is as bland as an action movie can be. The characters had cookie-cutter personality, the ending is both predictable and boring. Plus they have a non-threatening geriatric as a villain. Of course because of those obvious factors the movie bombed.

IM2 is not a failure in any sense. RDJ is still the best superhero actor of all times and IM carries real world theme inside while not shedding its superhero background. Marvel would still hedge on IM as a more proven movie franchise than most of their franchises including Hulk, Thor, and Captain America. What they need for the eventual 3rd is a better cohesive script (dump Justin Theroux), better threatening villain (get an Asian genius match called Gene Khan), and longer screen time (150 minutes run this time).

Personaly I get how its bland. And really what movie based on an existing property isn't predictable? As for the non threatening villan, I think the Hassansins are ment to be Dastans major threat if you get what I'm saying.

And to try and stay on topic I think the Marvel movie to worry about is Catain America. I mean with Thor I'm also like please let this do good but something about CA just worries me.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

yea, lots of people are pumped for Thor. I keep hearing people talking about the movie at my school. This one girl in my class went and saw IM2 with her boyfriend and was telling me how excited he got during the after credits scene. So Thor I definitley wouldn't worry about, don't think I'd worry about Cap either. For some reason I just got this hunch that his name will actually help generate money overseas as oppose to hinder it.