Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

^I have to be honest, i'm English and i have little to no interest in a Cap movie, and dont know anyone who does.

 

[hatebox]

Captain America has little to no reputation in Europe (beyong hardcore comic book geeks). His success will live and die upon whether it's a good film. Unfortunately it's directed by Joe Johnston, so it won't be. (Only kidding! (but not really)).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The early estimates have it's friday number at 2.4mil. Thats a bigger drop than I expected but oh well it was coming off of a holiday weekend so it's expected. I actually expect Mojo's numbers to be slight higher. I think that A-Team is going to open with over 45mil so I see another high 40's drop next weekend too.

 

[Catman]

Spider-man 3 had very little competition.

I guess Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End were two small independent films that were released on May 2007.

The early estimates have it's friday number at 2.4mil. Thats a bigger drop than I expected but oh well it was coming off of a holiday weekend so it's expected.

Like I said earlier, Iron Man 2 is doing the same exact business as Iron Man. Iron Man grossed $2.1 million on the same Friday. And it grossed $7.4 million for the weekend. Which is roughly the same that Iron Man 2 will gross. Iron Man 2's final domestic gross will be $321 miliion. Just watch.

 

[hatebox]

A $7.7m weekend according to BOM, meaning it has another $27m to go to beat IM1. At the rate it's dropping I'm not really sure where that figure is meant to come from, especially given A-Team's about to open, but I guess Paramount will just leave it in theaters until it somehow gets there.

 

[marcvader]

Well the first one was out about 5 months sooo...

 

[topdog1]

I think you numbers crunchers are missing something. What's amazing is that everything else is coming up VERY light in these tough economic times. Shrek, Robin Hood and Prince of Persia are all struggling to a degree. IM2's numbers are even more amazing when you factor the economic climate in to play. These tough economic times are killing right now. It's yet another disappointing result for 2010 summer box office following such a weak Memorial Weekend, with this first June weekend's total domestic grosses looking down 20% compared to last year's. Just goes to show you how good Iron Man 2 is and how most everyone praising it to some degree was the only thing that saved it and helped it hit big.

Look at the recent exceptions Avatar and Alice. They had everything normal films don't have going for them in these economic times. You can forget past numbers and marvel that a film can crack $300 million domestic under these specific circumstances.

 

[hatebox]

For reasons that have been brought up way too many times in this thread to bear repeating, the economy argument doesn't wash with me. Suffice it to say, these films are doing poorly because they're very unappealing, lack originality and have had bad reviews. Quality-wise this is shaping up to be one of the lousiest, most forgettable summers ever.

 

[JKKS085]

A $7.7m weekend according to BOM, meaning it has another $27m to go to beat IM1. At the rate it's dropping I'm not really sure where that figure is meant to come from, especially given A-Team's about to open, but I guess Paramount will just leave it in theaters until it somehow gets there.

The movie si currently growing higher than Spider-Man 3.
320 millions will probably be reached in it's 10th week (maybe even 325).

 

[Tony Stark]

It's still 15 million ahead of the first movie for the same weekend. It will cross 300 by the next weekend. One thing I don't know is why BoM changed the Friday predcition when most other sources had it at 2.4 mil.

It finished ahead of Splice which it wasn't predicted to do. I also think Marmaduke is being over predicted. Don't be suprised when the actuals come in if Marmaduke is under 10 mil.

The big problem for IM this week wasn't that is lost 200 theaters, but that the 3000 theaters it's in, it's down to one screen in most cases. That's just because the market is oversaturated right now.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I guess Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End were two small independent films that were released on May 2007.



Like I said earlier, Iron Man 2 is doing the same exact business as Iron Man. Iron Man grossed $2.1 million on the same Friday. And it grossed $7.4 million for the weekend. Which is roughly the same that Iron Man 2 will gross. Iron Man 2's final domestic gross will be $321 miliion. Just watch.

Iron Man grossed 13.5mil in it's 5th week while Iron Man 2 grossed just an estimated 7.8mil. The boxoffice is a rollercoster! I just don't see 320mil anymore after this drop. If The A-Team and The Karate Kid flop then I think 320mil is in play but if they don't I see atleast a mid 40's drop. Ofcourse it's pretty stupid of me to predict any drop without the weekdays so...my opinion is subject to change.

 

[JKKS085]

IM2 simply needs to make a 5th week above 9 millions (which means, if the week-end estimates are correct, around $500,000/day until next thursday and it'll make more money for sure) and the 320 millions will still be possible to reach.

I still predict that it can gross higher than 325 millions.

 

[TheVileOne]

It definitely can when you factor in the weekday grosses.

Once again, people here said Iron Man couldn't even make $300 million in 2008. Just saying.

 

[JKKS085]

Wow, I never believed I was able to make such a big calculation mistake.
IM 2 will never gross above 310 millions.
It's actually on the way to end around 305 to 307 millions.

 

[ddddeeee]

Wow, I never believed I was able to make such a big calculation mistake.
IM 2 will never gross above 310 millions.
It's actually on the way to end around 305 to 307 millions.

That would be correct.

 

[Catman]

Iron Man grossed 13.5mil in it's 5th week while Iron Man 2 grossed just an estimated 7.8mil.

I'm looking at things from a different point-of-view. Iron Man opened on May 2. Iron Man 2 opened on May 7. That's like a week in difference. So, I'm not comparing week 5 vs week 5. I'm look how the movies did at the same time. On June 6-8, 2008, Iron Man grossed $7.4 million and increased its domestic total to $288.8 million. Adjusted for inflation, that's pretty much the same as Iron Man 2 this weekend. $7.7 million with a domestic total of $291.2 million.

You have to realize that Iron Man 2 had a bigger opening ($128.1 million vs $98.6 million), but since then it has slowed down to the point where it is even with Iron Man. In the second week it dropped 59.4%. Iron Man dropped 48.1%. So, even though Iron Man 2 is a week behind it's on track to gross about the same as Iron Man.

I just don't see 320mil anymore after this drop. If The A-Team and The Karate Kid flop then I think 320mil is in play

On June 13-15, 2008, Iron Man grossed $5.6 million and increased its domestic total to $297.9 million. That was the same weekend where The Incredible Hulk opened with $55.4 million, The Happening opened with $30.5 million, and Kung Fu Panda had a second week gross of $33.6 million. So, I think Iron Man 2 will do fine opposite The A-Team and The Karate Kid.

Like someone said earlier, Iron Man was in theaters for 5 months. If Iron Man 2 is in theaters for that long then $321 million is very possible. It has already grossed $291.2 million. $300 million is around the corner.

 

[Catman]

Wow, I never believed I was able to make such a big calculation mistake.
IM 2 will never gross above 310 millions.
It's actually on the way to end around 305 to 307 millions.

That would be correct.

You're making the classic mistake of forgetting weekday grosses. Iron Man 2 grossed $7.7 million this weekend but throughout the weekday it grossed $3.7 million. And that's excluding the $4.6 million it grossed on Memorial Day Monday. So, that's a total of $11.4 million in one week. $16 million if you include Memorial Day. So, as long as Iron Man 2 continues to gross over $1 million per weekday it'll surpass $310 million. Look at it this way. It's already by $291.2 million. Let's say it grosses $4 million throughout the weekday and $5 million on the weekend, that's enough to reach $300 million. You say $305-307 will be the final gross? Well, let's say, Iron Man 2 only grosses $500,000 per weekday after it reaches $300 million. That's $2 million. If it grossed $4 million during the weekend that's $6 million total for the week. That brings its domestic total to $306 million and it's only week #7 of a movie that'll probably be in theaters till September.

 

[Evil Twin]

IM2's biggest hurdle is going to be holding onto screens the next few weeks. A-Team, Karate Kid, Jonah Hex, and, especially, Toy Story 3 are going to open up on a lot of screens in the next 2 weeks.

 

[Tony Stark]

For reasons that have been brought up way too many times in this thread to bear repeating, the economy argument doesn't wash with me. Suffice it to say, these films are doing poorly because they're very unappealing, lack originality and have had bad reviews. Quality-wise this is shaping up to be one of the lousiest, most forgettable summers ever.

Your blanket discounting of the economy doesn't really wash. I'll agree it's no single factor, but raising ticket prices in the middle of a recession was not a smart move by Hollywood no matter which way you want to spin it, and they're clearly paying for it.

Having said that, other than Iron Man, there's little reason to go to the theater right now. However last year was just as unappealing. TF2 made 400 million and I don't know anyone that thinks that is a good movie, or at the very least thinks it's better than Iron Man 2. Other than that Star Trek, and perhaps District 9 were the only compelling new movies from last year.

 

[Tony Stark]

IM2's biggest hurdle is going to be holding onto screens the next few weeks. A-Team, Karate Kid, Jonah Hex, and, especially, Toy Story 3 are going to open up on a lot of screens in the next 2 weeks.

They will keep IM2 around in lieu of SATC2, Marmaduke and Splice which have little reason to remain in the theater, but your point is taken.

 

[TheVileOne]

I'm going to laugh at all of you when the movie makes over $320 million.

 

[ironman_rick]

One more week......and it will hit $300 million domestic. Which other movie besides TS3 (A-Team won't even hit the mid 200 million mark) do u think is gonna get to that mark this summer ?

For a movie which didn't have any iconic villains.......and solely resting on RDJ's shoulder (and a pi$$ a$$ lazy marketing in this dour summer market) anything more than $300 million is a huge success.

I think marvel/paramount will be pretty pleased with IM2 boxoffice *** august 2010 when it should be at least the 2nd highest grossing movie this summer.

If this movie was released in 3D it would have bashed alice's domestic BO and would be this years biggest $$$ maker (not counting avatar which was released in 2009).

 

[TheVileOne]

Glad they didn't release it in ****** 3D like Clash of the Titans ****.

I think the only reason Clash did as well as it did is because of the 3D gimmick. Even though the 3D looked ****ing horrendous.

 

[lespaul59]

I don't claim to know anything about the economy but I wonder if the economy isn't hurting repeat business.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

I don't claim to know anything about the economy but I wonder if the economy isn't hurting repeat business.

It's certainly hurting mine. I'll be out of a job in about 3 weeks. I loved Iron Man but could only justify going to see it twice. Normally I see a movie I like that much three times.

I'm not alone either. Every single female friend I have decided not to go to Sex and the City due to money worries. Going to a movie is a huge expense these days.

And since we don't live in a world where only one country counts, it's worth noting that IM2 is only about 6 million behind IM1 worldwide right now. The recession being a worldwide thing makes this pretty impressive for IM2. It will make more money than the first one in the next few days.