Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[TheVileOne]

Prince of Persia doesn't come out until Memorial Day.

What comes out May 14 and May 21?

 

[danoyse]

Prince of Persia doesn't come out until Memorial Day.

What comes out May 14 and May 21?

Robin Hood comes out May 14.

 

[Tony Stark]

Prince of Persia doesn't come out until Memorial Day.

What comes out May 14 and May 21?

I'm not sure about Robin Hood, but I don't think it's going to be a huge blockbuster. Perhaps like a Kingdom of Heaven type film, I don't see it as a Gladiator, but it's hard to get a read on it.

Shrek 4, is 4 times a charm, or have they gone to the well one too many times. Shrek 3 was awful, but it did have a big opening. It is in 3D which could be a draw.

Definitely much weaker competition than IM1 which had to go against Prince Caspian and Indy 4.

 

[FaT_tONle]

I think Persia will do decent. People will eat it up like Pirates. Gemma in that outfit is going to get those 15 year old teens in theatres with their pants down and tissues at hand. Looks like a total popcorn cheese fest though. I may pay for IM2 again and sneak in if I catch it.

 

[TheVileOne]

Robin Hood is a disaster that will bomb. I predict Iron Man will go #1 2 weekends in a row like in 2008.

Fat Toni, Gemma Arterton despite being hot is not a draw

 

[Eraserhead]

$153 million OW

About $430 domestic

About $800 WW

 

[hatebox]

Prince of Persia should do ok. Like the game I've read it's pretty much all out action, and after some complaints levelled at IM2 not having enough action that could be the antidote for some. But it isn't direct competition for IM2 anyway.

 

[terry78]

Yeah, Robin Hood...while it looks gritty and action-filled, doesn't have that whimsy that the other versions did. It looks depressing as ****.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ironman2.htm

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: n/a 0.0% + Foreign: $121,106,342 100.0% = Worldwide: $121,106,342

 

[Anita18]

Nikki Finke at Deadline Hollywood Daily says IM2 will take the record of widest release, with 4380 theaters. TDK had 4366. I think Paramount is gunning for the OW record.

It definitely would have achieved it if it was released in 3-D, being the cash cow that it is.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Yeah, Robin Hood...while it looks gritty and action-filled, doesn't have that whimsy that the other versions did. It looks depressing as ****.

It's PG-13, and it does look like been there done that. I wish Crowe would bother getting into shape for a change. Guy does Gangster and Body of Lies and his body never recovered. Can't blame Sienna Miller for walking off the set. I think IM2 is good for #1 for two weeks by FAR. I think it will just be edged out by Persia, but JUST edged.

 

[kedrell]

I read over on LA Times that the budget for this one was around $170M + $75M marketing/prints/etc. So with roughly a $250M overall budget to make back this will beome profitable after the exhibitors get their share at around the $387M mark world wide. No problemo. We're already 1/3 of the way there pretty much.

 

[hatebox]

EW predicts it'll just fall short of the OW record:

http://hollywoodinsider.ew.com/2010/05/06/box-office-preview-iron-man-2/#comment-127447

 

[kedrell]

They predicted a $70M OW for IM1. It made around a hundred. Just sayin'.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Iron Man 2 made 7.5 million from midnight shows.

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood

 

[kedrell]

Yep, saw that linked on BOM. The theater count for the midnight screenings was pitifully low. Paramount phones it in again. I guess they don't care so much since this really doesn't belong to them.

 

[Anita18]

Yep, saw that linked on BOM. The theater count for the midnight screenings was pitifully low. Paramount phones it in again. I guess they don't care so much since this really doesn't belong to them.

Well they still have the widest release record going. They probably just didn't care about the midnights since they figured they weren't gonna beat TDK, Harry Potter, or Twilight.

 

[kedrell]

Well they still have the widest release record going. They probably just didn't care about the midnights since they figured they weren't gonna beat TDK, Harry Potter, or Twilight.

True but it's still lazy on their part and could have helped the OW total. Should have got around 10M midnights if they hadn't dropped the ball. I know my IMAX was packed as were about 4-5 other screens at the theater I went to. And they have a big(I mean BIG) parking lot outside and when I went to the 9pm showing of IM1 there were only a couple dozen cars there(about 5% of the parking lot area) and only about 10 people in the 500-seat theater. When I left the theater between movies at about 11:20pm that place was bananas with no parking spots left.

 

[Anita18]

True but it's still lazy on their part and could have helped the OW total. Should have got around 10M midnights if they hadn't dropped the ball. I know my IMAX was packed as were about 4-5 other screens at the theater I went to. And they have a big(I mean BIG) parking lot outside and when I went to the 9pm showing of IM1 there were only a couple dozen cars there(about 5% of the parking lot area) and only about 10 people in the 500-seat theater. When I left the theater between movies at about 11:20pm that place was bananas with no parking spots left.

At BOM they're saying that the theaters who had midnights mostly didn't sell out.

It's also in the middle of finals time, so unless you're Harry Potter or Twilight, a lot of the casual fans who came out for TDK and TF2 for fun aren't going to be there.

 

[kedrell]

Well my IMAX did as well as the regular screens but that's all I can confirm.

 

[FaT_tONle]

How many screens was it on last night?

 

[kedrell]

I don't know whether it was screen count or theater count but I heard the 2500 number thrown around.

 

[Anita18]

I don't know whether it was screen count or theater count but I heard the 2500 number thrown around.

That number's theater count, for sure.

I'd say the demand wasn't there. Apparently HP5 did $12m in midnights with 2100 theaters.

 

[kedrell]

HP has the most rabid fanbase out there. Batman, Spidey, X-Men etc. are nothing compared to Potter when it comes to midnights. The only thing sort of comparable is Twilight. I wouldn't worry. I expect it to have a much more evenly distributed total over the 3 days.

 

[Tony Stark]

7.5 mill for midnight is a good number for this time of year. Star Trek last year only opened with 4 million and they had several Thursday showings. I'm not sure what Spider-man 3 did in midnight showings.