Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tony Stark]

I don't claim to know anything about the economy but I wonder if the economy isn't hurting repeat business.

I think you can pretty much guarantee it is. Movies have traditionally done well in bad economic times because it was a form of cheap entertainment. But you can't take out the ticket price increases and cramming 3D down everyone's throat.

The new Shrek is the perfect example. I believe it's the only shrek to open under 100 mil, and that's with the 3D boost.

Sure IM2 had a steeper fall than other movies out this summer, but it had a bigger opening than any of the others. The only other movie to open over 100 mil on opening weekend was Alice and that was with the 3D boost.

We'll see what happens the rest of the summer but the only films I see with big openings left this summer are TS3 and Eclipse, and I guarantee Eclipse will have an RT rating in the 30's.

 

[hatebox]

I'm going to laugh at all of you when the movie makes over $320 million.

Why? No-one's said it won't, only that if/when it does it'll just barely crawl over the milestone.

 

[Casius--J]

^I have to be honest, i'm English and i have little to no interest in a Cap movie, and dont know anyone who does.

I'm english too, but i'm sooo excited to see cap and thor next year!

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

I'm going to call it now

TS3 will not do as good as some are expecting

why? because hell, not one person I know that saw the first film (don't know anyone that bothered with the second) are in any way shape or form interested in seeing the third.

It's going to be one of those "damn, that was 1 movie I thought was gonna be huge" but ends up being a let down type of thing. I've just got a gut feeling

that's my prediction as I see it at least.



but I feel that way about all of the "big" movies coming out this year, and that none of them are going to hit the way they should. I just think this is a sleeper year (calm before the 2011/2012 storm).

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I'm english too, but i'm sooo excited to see cap and thor next year!

I'm excited for Thor, Cap, not so much.

 

[BestGirl]

Your blanket discounting of the economy doesn't really wash. I'll agree it's no single factor, but raising ticket prices in the middle of a recession was not a smart move by Hollywood no matter which way you want to spin it, and they're clearly paying for it.

Having said that, other than Iron Man, there's little reason to go to the theater right now. However last year was just as unappealing. TF2 made 400 million and I don't know anyone that thinks that is a good movie, or at the very least thinks it's better than Iron Man 2. Other than that Star Trek, and perhaps District 9 were the only compelling new movies from last year.

Especially since so many of the movies that have come out this year haven't been worth the high ticket prices.

 

[hatebox]

As Avatar proved, if people wanna see a movie they'll pay the extra price. Apparently people were happy to see robots beat each other up for two hours last summer (don't ask me why, mindless escapism I guess), but nothing so far this summer has really piqued their interest beyond the expected. Only when Toy Story 3 and Inception underperform - assuming they get great reviews - will I even begin to entertain the economy argument.

 

[Iron_Stark]

As Avatar proved, if people wanna see a movie they'll pay the extra price. Apparently people were happy to see robots beat each other up for two hours last summer (don't ask me why, mindless escapism I guess), but nothing so far this summer has really piqued their interest beyond the expected. Only when Toy Story 3 and Inception underperform - assuming they get great reviews - will I even begin to entertain the economy argument.

lol, well that explains a lot.

 

[Abraham]

lol, well that explains a lot.

heh. I don't get it, elaborate?

 

[Iron_Stark]

heh. I don't get it, elaborate?

He and a few other Nolanites have been taking jabs at this movie every chance they could get.

 

[hatebox]

lol, well that explains a lot.

I suppose it'd be convenient to assume that only Bat fanatics predisposed to hate IM2 are looking forward to Inception. Somebody should have told Warners not to spend $180m on it!

 

[LostSon88]

I'm going to call it now

TS3 will not do as good as some are expecting

why? because hell, not one person I know that saw the first film (don't know anyone that bothered with the second) are in any way shape or form interested in seeing the third.

It's going to be one of those "damn, that was 1 movie I thought was gonna be huge" but ends up being a let down type of thing. I've just got a gut feeling

that's my prediction as I see it at least.



but I feel that way about all of the "big" movies coming out this year, and that none of them are going to hit the way they should. I just think this is a sleeper year (calm before the 2011/2012 storm).

Well...every person I know can't wait for TS3.

TS3 is going to DESTROY the box office and easily be the #1 movie of the summer.

So take this as me, "calling it."

 

[Fenrir]

The economy has been in a slump since 2007, yet box office receipts have constantly increased in the last three years, earning Hollywood's reputation as the 'recession-proof' business:

http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064077

So yeah. The economy excuses doesn't really fly.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

As Avatar proved, if people wanna see a movie they'll pay the extra price. Apparently people were happy to see robots beat each other up for two hours last summer (don't ask me why, mindless escapism I guess), but nothing so far this summer has really piqued their interest beyond the expected. Only when Toy Story 3 and Inception underperform - assuming they get great reviews - will I even begin to entertain the economy argument.

Same here, time and again the economy argument has been proven wrong, so why people continue to use it as an excuse is beyond me.

I suppose it'd be convenient to assume that only Bat fanatics predisposed to hate IM2 are looking forward to Inception. Somebody should have told Warners not to spend $180m on it!

I know, god forbid people actually look forward to an original movie with fresh ideas, something Iron Man 2 unfortunately didnt have.

The economy has been in a slump since 2007, yet box office receipts have constantly increased in the last three years, earning Hollywood's reputation as the 'recession-proof' business:

http://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064077

So yeah. The economy excuses doesn't really fly.

Exactly, time and again this has been pointed out but people keep trying to use it as an excuse.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Yet 2010 is down by all accounts. I am not saying it's the economy, but it has to be something. Maybe it is just the writers strike that pushed back a lot of movies. Whatever it is, people just aren't going to movies this summer as much as years past.

 

[hatebox]

Because there have been a slew of not very appealing movies is still the most obvious answer. Even if I didn't follow box office I'd have still thought 2010 has been a lousy year quality-wise so far, and I doubt I'm alone. "You can fool all the people some of the time..." etc.

 

[FaT_tONle]

I wasn't seeing a whole lot of quality in years past either. Did 07 and 09 really have quality movies more so than 2010? I will say, the marketing has just been putrid and downright lazy at times. I see a lot of Shrek and TS on happy meals and what not, but that's about it, and you expect that. Something like Wanted, which was complete garbage, still did a brilliant job selling Jolie. It will be interesting to see how Knight and Day and SALT do and if those mega stars can still hold their own at the box office. But as a franchise, IM2 did nothing to sell itself as more than a filler movie, or basically hours 3-4 of a 4 hour film. Say what you want about quality, but POTC and TF and least made it known that it was going to be even bigger and crazier in the second installments. TDK just happened to do it right.

 

[hatebox]

I actually agree - as boxofficemojo recently said, there's been nothing so far this summer (or this year) that's truly felt lke an event, and marketing has been generally shoddy. While that may be a different argumentfrom quality, it does go back to a lack of appeal.

TF2 was garbage, but I get why it did well. It treated itself like a BIG movie and that became a self-fulfilling prophecy. We also appear to agree that marketing has nothing to do with the economy, particularly as the economy was terrible in '09 too.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yet 2010 is down by all accounts. I am not saying it's the economy, but it has to be something. Maybe it is just the writers strike that pushed back a lot of movies. Whatever it is, people just aren't going to movies this summer as much as years past.

It's really a combination of things, and yes I think the writers strike is also part of it.

I've never said the economy is the reason, but it's certainly a factor along with several other things like a generally unappealing movie selection, increased ticket prices, and poor marketing by the studios.

Because IM2 has been the only big draw, that also hurt IM2's business. Back in 2008 you had IM1, Chronicles of Narnia, Indy 4, those were all events that drew people to the theater, and when shows of Indy 4 were selling out, that brought alot of people into see IM1.

Think of it this way if you think of total box office sales as a pie, you may only get 4% of that pie, but if that pie is 800 million dollar, that 4% will be alot bigger than a pie that's only 500 million.

 

[Silver Knight]

How did this go at the BO? Better then the original?

 

[Tony Stark]

It's about 15 million ahead of the first at their respective points now. I suspect that will get cut to about 10 million over by the end of the run though. So I expect this film will finish 325 to 330, or there about.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I will probably get bashed, but IM2 feels a lot like Quantum of Solace. Boxoffice and quality wise.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Because IM2 has been the only big draw, that also hurt IM2's business. Back in 2008 you had IM1, Chronicles of Narnia, Indy 4, those were all events that drew people to the theater, and when shows of Indy 4 were selling out, that brought alot of people into see IM1.

Think of it this way if you think of total box office sales as a pie, you may only get 4% of that pie, but if that pie is 800 million dollar, that 4% will be alot bigger than a pie that's only 500 million.

Now you are just reaching for ****. People who stumbled into theaters not 100% sold on a movie then went to IM because Indy was sold out??? C'mon... maybe the first couple days or so, but that's about it. I don't know what movies are sold out for days on end unless we are talking about special shows and IMAX releases that have limited screens. Now sure where the pie analogy fits in unless you are talking about the Paramount cut. Maybe they did mail it in. "Disney is up our asses so let's do the bare minimum and get our cut while we still can."

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

It's really a combination of things: generally unappealing movie selection, increased ticket prices, and poor marketing by the studios.

I think these are playing the largest role in it, especially the bold. IM2 had EXCELLENT marketing, action figures, fast food toys, slurpee cups/straws, posters everywhere, commercials.

I actually feel IM2 had the BEST marketing out of any film released this year thus far. I don't see nearly as much marketing for movies like: Robin Hood, Shrek, Toy Story 3, Inception, or Jonah Hex. All movies in which there should be mass merchandise/marketing and what not shoved down our throats right now, there's literally almost NOTHING to get the general public "hyped" for these films.

and that I believe is the BIGGEST reason of them all, no marketing = no hype = no viewers.

plain and simple.

 

[rashad]

IM2's marketing was not that great.