Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Iceman]

Over $200m, nice!

Looking forward to US 2nd weekend and more international numbers this weekend. $1B can't be far away after that.

 

[The Caped Knight]

Iron Man 3 will most likely remain number 1 this weekend then it will probably fall to 2 spot next weekend as Star Trek : Into Darkness takes center stage.

 

[Silver Surfer]

SW7 will obliterate the boxoffice records of Avengers. The original cast + Disney's marketing machine + the SW brand + JJ = Move over Titanic.

 

[schiz0id]

SW7 will obliterate the boxoffice records of Avengers. The original cast + Disney's marketing machine + the SW brand + JJ = Move over Titanic.

Well it would truly be a test of box office might since The Avengers 2 is released the same year (2015) as Star Wars VII

vs

 

[Mr.M]

Avatar 2 is probably 2016. But if they make December 2015, I'd have to guess SW7 goes May 2016. I don't like a non-May release for Star Wars. Marvel is out of big summer tentpoles aside from Avengers (assuming no IM4). They shouldn't have Star Wars and Avengers the same year.

 

[Iceman]

SW7 will obliterate the boxoffice records of Avengers. The original cast + Disney's marketing machine + the SW brand + JJ = Move over Titanic.

Avengers 2 also has Disney's marketing machine +JW instead of JJ (equivalent maybe?). Also A1 beat out Titanic's original domestic gross before the rerelease. t:

But if Star Wars is as good as it should be, it'll be huge! Both films should obliterate Avengers' box office records.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Avatar 2 is probably 2016. But if they make December 2015, I'd have to guess SW7 goes May 2016. I don't like a non-May release for Star Wars. Marvel is out of big summer tentpoles aside from Avengers (assuming no IM4). They shouldn't have Star Wars and Avengers the same year.

They still have Spider-Man. And Thor could probably hold the May slot too.

 

[TheVileOne]

Seems pretty likely the movie can hit $400 million and probably over a billion worldwide.

That will likely soften the blow if any of the upcoming movies underperform. Which they might, but I think it's worth it to experiment with other groups of characters like Guardians, Ant-Man, etc.

I'd say Thor 2 will likely outperform Thor as well.

 

[lespaul59]

I'm gonna say we'll see a 46-48% drop for a BO of around $90 million. This is just a guess and not based on any BO info that I've read.

 

[Iceman]

That would be ridiculously good for something opening this large!

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm gonna say we'll see a 46-48% drop for a BO of around $90 million. This is just a guess and not based on any BO info that I've read.

I hope so. BoM, is predicting a 58% drop and 71M with GG making 42.5M. We saw GG last night, and I thought it sucked. Some good acting performances that were masked by obnoxious irrelevant special effects. I hope GG bombs, but I think it will probably do well considering it's tracking well among females.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I'm gonna say we'll see a 46-48% drop for a BO of around $90 million. This is just a guess and not based on any BO info that I've read.

Yeah, not happening. Expect something closer to $65-70m.

 

[lespaul59]

I keep forgetting about The Great Gatsby, so I'll leave my original number just to see how far I'm off.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah, not happening. Expect something closer to $65-70m.

Doubt it will be that low. The expectation is lower than IM2 drop which was 59%. That would be 69-70M. Expect between 70-75.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Don't see it getting close to $75m.

 

[schiz0id]

I'm gonna say we'll see a 46-48% drop for a BO of around $90 million. This is just a guess and not based on any BO info that I've read.

The Avengers had a 2nd weekend drop of 50.3% which is impressive for its ultra massive debut. IM3 doesn't have as much staying power (and some competition from Gatsby) so I would predict a 59% drop (70m).

 

[Iceman]

The Avengers had a 2nd weekend drop of 50.3% which is impressive for its ultra massive debut. IM3 doesn't have as much staying power (and some competition from Gatsby) so I would predict a 59% drop (70m).

That's the kind of figure I'm expecting. A bit more would be nice though.

 

[Iceman]

Thursday $7,609,602


Total: $212,421,084
Worldwide: $775,821,084

 

[Tony Stark]

Unless is has a fall off the rails 2nd weekend ala Wolverine, 69M is the lowest I can see it going. That's basically an IM2 drop. Just watch the Friday number. If it's north of 20M, it could be a very strong hold.

Everyone knows this isn't going to have Avenger's style legs. But I have a feeling Gastby will tank when they see how bad it is. Not the worst movie of the year, but the most memorably bad movie of the year for sure.

 

[schiz0id]

Thursday $7,609,602


Total: $212,421,084
Worldwide: $775,821,084

IM3's percentage declines are so far on par with The Avengers. If it keeps the same trajectory a $500m domestic is a definite possibility.

 

[schiz0id]

Unless is has a fall off the rails 2nd weekend ala Wolverine, 69M is the lowest I can see it going. That's basically an IM2 drop. Just watch the Friday number. If it's north of 20M, it could be a very strong hold.

Everyone knows this isn't going to have Avenger's style legs. But I have a feeling Gastby will tank when they see how bad it is. Not the worst movie of the year, but the most memorably bad movie of the year for sure.

There's a reason why they moved it from Christmas 2012 (awards season bait) to Summer 2013: reviews are bad. Can you imagine this competing with the likes of Django Unchained and Les Miserables on Christmas Day? It would have drowned and tanked.

 

[ctsketch]

I didn't like Django's third act... it was all good until Tarantino decided to go full Tarantino...

 

[schiz0id]

I didn't like Django's third act... it was all good until Tarantino decided to go full Tarantino...

I loved it because of Christoph Waltz, his performance and character is so mesmerizing. He deserved that Oscar.

 

[Liam_H]

IM3's percentage declines are so far on par with The Avengers. If it keeps the same trajectory a $500m domestic is a definite possibility.

I don't think its on par with the Avengers, more like around IM1 and IM2 levels. Although the Saturday jump will be pretty indicative.

 

[vailian48]

ok, first of all, this is my 2nd time posting, and sorry that i didnt introduce myself before but hi to everybody and 2nd yes, i am new, however, i am not new predicting box office

YES, iron man 3 is not of par with avengers, for its first 7 days (adjusted) avengers was already past 260 domestic, iron man 3 is still below 220 domestic

on another note, i am certain that 400+ domestic will happen, now, 500+ domestic?

for its second weekend, most people and websites are saying 70+ but less than 80

ok, so, when you adjust for inflation' there are 10 movies that were able to do 70+ in there second weekend, only 2 of them didnt breach the 500 mark, one of them crossed 400 but not 500, the other crossed 300 but not 400, those 2 movies are harry potter and the soreceres stone and how the grinch stole christmas, now, iron man is more general audience that harry potter, and, well, for how the grinch stole christmas, that is up for you to decide if they are comparable or not, and by the way, i do think iron man 3 will get at least 70 million this weekend

by the way, my brother my mom and me are going to see it this weekend, so add another 23.82 to its domestic box office