Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[MessiahDecoy123]

The thing is Star Trek is a foreign featherweight, and with a big movie like IM3, most of the money it's going to need for 1.2 B will be foreign.

True but if IM3 gets a 20 m shortage in the domestic market it could miss 1.2 billion without taking a hit overseas.

But yeah Star Trek is going to get steamrolled overseas.

 

[KangConquers]

True but if IM3 gets a 20 m shortage in the domestic market it could miss 1.2 billion without taking a hit overseas.

But yeah Star Trek is going to get steamrolled overseas.

I think $1.1 B is definitely a lock either way.

 

[Mr. Dent]

The numbers actually went up from the estimates. Disney is reporting $198.4m This is crazy.

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-new...ay-records-opens-overseas-with-132m-wednesday

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think $1.1 B is definitely a lock either way.

Agreed.

 

[Mr. Dent]

lol reading back the earlier pages and we were all predicting like $800m or lower. My how we underestimated Marvel again. This is basically Avengers all over again.

 

[Iceman]

The numbers actually went up from the estimates. Disney is reporting $198.4m This is crazy.

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-new...ay-records-opens-overseas-with-132m-wednesday

Ha, I was worried whether the initial figure would hold. What a start!

lol reading back the earlier pages and we were all predicting like $800m or lower. My how we underestimated Marvel again. This is basically Avengers all over again.

If I'd made a prediction for this film it definitely would have been lower than what we're seeing. Certainly nothing that would trouble Avengers. RDJ is magic in this role.

 

[Donar]

Yeah, I think 1.1B is basically a lock.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm predicting Gatsby is going to flop big time. Baz Luhrmann has never made a hit movie. His last movie Australia was a massive flop, and I don't see how this will be any different. His movies are all about style over substance.

As for IM3, I expect the customary 50-55% drop for films like this. There are always exceptions, but we'll see. The bigger test will be week 3 against Star Trek. I expect Star Trek will open no. 1, but the question is how much can IM3 hold during the week.

Not that I am disagreeing. Gatsby looks horrible to me, but Moulin Rouge! was quite the hit.

 

[Tony Stark]

Not to take away any thing from this film, but I think 1 billion is pretty common place now. First you have to realize that with the declining dollar that 400M is the new 300M, plus higher ticket prices and 3D. Last year we had 4 films break the 1B mark, and that was unheard of. Plus you had several others that came pretty darn close (in the 800-900M range).

Still it's an incredible achievement for this film. I'm hoping for a huge opening, but I think this will at least break TDKR and has a good chance at breaking Potter 7.

 

[eddy]

Well Ironman 3 will be the only film to cross 1 billion this year. Bet on it. 2012 was a fluke. The only other year with as many 1 billion hits coming up will be 2015 and at least 3 of them will be Disney releases.

 

[Tony Stark]

Well Ironman 3 will be the only film to cross 1 billion this year. Bet on it. 2012 was a fluke. The only other year with as many 1 billion hits coming up will be 2015 and at least 3 of them will be Disney releases.

Hobbit: TDOS will hit 1B, and Catching Fire has a chance if there's a pickup in the international numbers.

 

[jyd_me]

Well Ironman 3 will be the only film to cross 1 billion this year. Bet on it. 2012 was a fluke. The only other year with as many 1 billion hits coming up will be 2015 and at least 3 of them will be Disney releases.

Um... you sure?

Man of Steel and The Hobbit - Desolation of Smaug should hit 1 bil. The Hunger Games - Catching Fire has the potential to hit that as well.

 

[Iceman]

Not to take away any thing from this film, but I think 1 billion is pretty common place now. First you have to realize that with the declining dollar that 400M is the new 300M, plus higher ticket prices and 3D. Last year we had 4 films break the 1B mark, and that was unheard of. Plus you had several others that came pretty darn close (in the 800-900M range).

Still it's an incredible achievement for this film. I'm hoping for a huge opening, but I think this will at least break TDKR and has a good chance at breaking Potter 7.

In the current market $1B worldwide is not what it used to be for epic ensemble event films like Star Wars, LOTR, Avengers etc but for a solo non top tier guy like Iron Man it's still pretty crazy! I guess Iron Man has actually been moved up to top tier (on film at least) by RDJ (at least while he is in the role) throughout the IM films and Avengers.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There could be a surprise. Did anyone expect Skyfall to pull it off? But for right now Iron Man 3 is the only lock, with The Hobbit sequel as the next closest "sure thing".

 

[DarthSkywalker]

In the current market $1B worldwide is not what it used to be for epic ensemble event films like Star Wars, LOTR, Avengers etc but for a solo non top tier guy like Iron Man it's still pretty crazy! I guess Iron Man has actually been moved up to top tier (on film at least) by RDJ (at least while he is in the role) throughout the IM films and Avengers.

That s the brilliant thing though. This isn't a simple "solo film" anymore. Marvel and Disney have positioned this as the sequel to the Avengers in a way. So basically, this is either the 7th Avengers film or the 4th Iron Man, which includes the Avengers.

 

[Sharkboy]

There could be a surprise. Did anyone expect Skyfall to pull it off? But for right now Iron Man 3 is the only lock, with The Hobbit sequel as the next closest "sure thing".

I would be happier than a pig in crap if Man of Steel hit a billion (and was actually a great film)

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I would be happier than a pig in crap if Man of Steel hit a billion (and was actually a great film)

If it is awesome then I would love for it to happen. But t doesn't look likely right now. One of the reasons I haven't been hot on the marketing.

 

[Sharkboy]

If it is awesome then I would love for it to happen. But t doesn't look likely right now. One of the reasons I haven't been hot on the marketing.

I don't know I'm getting the vibe that they are trying to dodge the IM3 monster, TDKR did the same thing last year while Avengers was still trampling everything in it's path...the marketing for that film was pretty nonexistent until that film came out then they went all out.


...with their terrible photoshopped poster.

 

[Juicy J]

I'm confident that Man of Steel will be a great movie; I'm also fairly confident it won't break a billion. Ceiling is around 700-800 at most.
That aside; man oh man. Marvel has done it again. Seriously, I couldn't be more pleased with this. It's a great time to be a marvel zombie, folks.

I don't know I'm getting the vibe that they are trying to dodge the IM3 monster, TDKR did the same thing last year while Avengers was still trampling everything in it's path...the marketing for that film was pretty nonexistent until that film came out then they went all out.


...with their terrible photoshopped poster.

Were you in a coma before May 4th? Avengers stuff was everywhere in the weeks and months leading up to it's release.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Well Ironman 3 will be the only film to cross 1 billion this year. Bet on it. 2012 was a fluke. The only other year with as many 1 billion hits coming up will be 2015 and at least 3 of them will be Disney releases.

I agree with this, although I think Hobbit and CF have a chance at hitting a billion. It's going a little far to say $400m is the new $300m and billion dollar films are common place. I think it's more just that studios have found billion dollar franchises recently in conjunction with the expanding OS market so they've found a way to cultivate 1-3 films into billion getters every year.

Um... you sure?

Man of Steel and The Hobbit - Desolation of Smaug should hit 1 bil. The Hunger Games - Catching Fire has the potential to hit that as well.

Man of Steel isn't hitting a billion.

 

[Sharkboy]

I'm confident that Man of Steel will be a great movie; I'm also fairly confident it won't break a billion. Ceiling is around 700-800 at most.
That aside; man oh man. Marvel has done it again. Seriously, I couldn't be more pleased with this. It's a great time to be a marvel zombie, folks.


Were you in a coma before May 4th? Avengers stuff was everywhere in the weeks and months leading up to it's release.

If you had told me Skyfall would touch a billion let alone break it, I would have slapped you silly for being silly.

No, I'm talking about TDKR, try reading the context of the what I said. Hence why MoS has no real marketing to speak of outside of the trailer, once that releases in the US then it will be nonstop MOS marketing.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't know I'm getting the vibe that they are trying to dodge the IM3 monster, TDKR did the same thing last year while Avengers was still trampling everything in it's path...the marketing for that film was pretty nonexistent until that film came out then they went all out.


...with their terrible photoshopped poster.

There are big difference. TDKR was the sequel to one of the biggest films ever. It sold itself, just like IM3 this year. MoS, not so much. I don't know why people want to compare MoS to TDKR in terms of marketing. It is a completely different beast.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If you had told me Skyfall would touch a billion let alone break it, I would have slapped you silly for being silly.

No, I'm talking about TDKR, try reading the context of the what I said. Hence why MoS has no real marketing to speak of outside of the trailer, once that releases in the US then it will be nonstop MOS marketing.

Skyfall was sold brilliantly. A lot of hype that started at the beginning of 2012.

 

[Sharkboy]

There are big difference. TDKR was the sequel to one of the biggest films ever. It sold itself, just like IM3 this year. MoS, not so much. I don't know why people want to compare MoS to TDKR in terms of marketing. It is a completely different beast.

Well every film is breaking a billion, there isn't a reason that MoS couldn't, especially if the hype reaches molten levels.

 

[Juicy J]

If you had told me Skyfall would touch a billion let alone break it, I would have slapped you silly for being silly.

Bond is a huge, established franchise that has had several recent successful movies. So it's tough to really compare that and Superman, who hasn't had a decent outing on the big screen in 33 years.

No, I'm talking about TDKR, try reading the context of the what I said. Hence why MoS has no real marketing to speak of outside of the trailer, once that releases in the US then it will be nonstop MOS marketing.

Haha when you talk about 'terrible photoshopped poster' I immediately thought you were referring to the Avengers and their pretty lackluster poster lol. My bad.