Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[ares834]

Don't see Iron Man 3 making over a billion TBH.

I think you all are underestimating what Superman is going to do this summer. I say he's going to pull in 600 million WW, easy. Films are starting to get out of it's way because studios are anticipating it to be a big draw that weekend.
In order of top highest grossing movies this year:
Iron Man 3
Hunger Games 2
Man of Steel
Star Trek 2
Hangover 3
it's a rough estimation so I'm probably wrong, but I'm feel pretty confident about those first three at least.
That being said, do you all feel that IM3 will be able to outgross the Hunger games? Domestically it could prove to be a challenge but world wide I'd say it's got sturdier legs.

You forgot the Hobbit. Part 1 made over a billion dollars. Part 2 will easily be in the top 5.

I find it odd that people are counting out T:TDW in favor of MOS so soon, especially considering it will be fresh on the heels TA and IM3's success.

MOS trailers are awesome, but that isn't enough to think MOS is gonna be some huge success. Hell the first Thor made more money than Superman Returns and it's MUCH fresher in the GA's mind.

Returns was, quite simply, a bad movie. Plus Thor has 3D ticket sales, inflation, and Superhero movies being "the big thing" when it came out to put it over the top.

Unless MoS is an utterly horrible movie, I can't see Thor topping it.

 

[Tony Stark]

The problem for MoS is it has the worst release date of any big summer movie. Maybe it's the movie that can break the June curse, but there's a ton of competition on either side of it. I'm pretty sure that if Thor TDW, is decent, it will top MoS.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

Whatever this June curse is, MoS will break it.

 

[Tony Stark]

^ As much as I love Thor and hope for a huge success, I don't have a ton of hope for that making colossal bank. It'll definitely be a success, don't get me wrong, but as of right now I don't see it being one of the highest five grossing films WW this year.
But hey, I'd love to be wrong on this one haha and like I said it's way to early to tell. I could easily change my tune come Tuesday.

What's going to put it up there, is Hemsworth is becoming a teenage heart throb. It's too early to give a final prediction, because a lot depends on quality, but I have a feeling that teenage girls in the month of November are going to flock to the theaters to see Chris and his little brother.

 

[Tony Stark]

Whatever this June curse is, MoS will break it.

Basically, outside of animated movies, June movies don't have huge openings. You probably have to go back to Batman '89 to find a movie that had a huge June opening. Again it doesn't have to do with the quality of the movie, Batman Begins did well, but I think it would have done much better had it been released over Memorial day or later in July.

 

[JKKS085]

Basically, outside of animated movies, June movies don't have huge openings. You probably have to go back to Batman '89 to find a movie that had a huge June opening.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban had a 93 millions opening back in 2004 (wich would translate into 121 millions nowadays).
Transformers 2 opened on june 24th 2009 with a 108 millions week end (wich adjusted would make 117 millions).

And that's just the recent examples. Back in the 90's you have Jurrassic Park (who set a new record opening week-end if I'm not mistaken) and the Batman movies of course.

You can pretty much release a film in June and still get a massive opening (100M and more but I'm not saying MoS will do this kind of numbers) if you have the proper hype, word of mouth, critics. Of course it won't be as big as a July opening (though you have to take in account that the competition is also stronger), but it can also allow for stronger legs.

All in all, I don't think releasing MoS in July is a bad move on Warner's part.
They don't need a record breaking hit, just a film that performs good enough to grant a sequel. Given the weak-ish competition, it can very well be an ambitious bet but a wise one.

 

[Tony Stark]

For non-sequel, non animated films in June, the last highest grossing film was Hulk, followed by Snow White and the Huntsman.

MoS may have "Harry Potter" type recognition, but I'm not positive. You're right, it doesnt' need to be a huge hit, but recent films do not have good luck in June.

 

[mclay18]

The problem for MoS is it has the worst release date of any big summer movie. Maybe it's the movie that can break the June curse, but there's a ton of competition on either side of it. I'm pretty sure that if Thor TDW, is decent, it will top MoS.

Mid-June? Not really, but it's in the mid-range of release dates (best dates are first weekend of May, Memorial Day, Fourth of July weekend or mid-July). If it was the weekend on or before Labor Day (late August-early September), you'd have a point there.

I don't think people would be arguing over MOS' release date, had The Avengers been released June 15 instead of May 4. It still would've broke records left and right.

 

[Tony Stark]

Mid-June? Not really, but it's in the mid-range of release dates (best dates are first weekend of May, Memorial Day, Fourth of July weekend or mid-July). If it was the weekend on or before Labor Day (late August-early September), you'd have a point there.

I don't think people would be arguing over MOS' release date, had The Avengers been released June 15 instead of May 4. It still would've broke records left and right.

The proof is in the statistics. Non animated, non-sequel films coming out in mid-June do poorly.

Sure Avengers would have done well, because it's as much a sequel as it is an original film. MoS =/= Avengers

 

[mclay18]

The proof is in the statistics. Non animated, non-sequel films coming out in mid-June do poorly.

Sure Avengers would have done well, because it's as much a sequel as it is an original film. MoS =/= Avengers

I think MOS will be the exception to that rule. This is the End moved up to June 12th, and After Earth moved from June 7 to May 31st (the latter after the final trailer came out). The positive buzz on MOS is growing, and the rival studios want to steer clear from June 14 -- which has MOS as the only new film that weekend.

But Iron Man 3 will out-earn it hand over fist anyway.

 

[BigThor]

Returns was, quite simply, a bad movie. Plus Thor has 3D ticket sales, inflation, and Superhero movies being "the big thing" when it came out to put it over the top.

Unless MoS is an utterly horrible movie, I can't see Thor topping it.

That's cool, I've always liked "underdogs".

I remember last year when The Avengers was the underdog against TDKR.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah, I would not count Thor out after seeing that teaser today. It looks fantastic.

 

[Joss Whedon]

Yeah, I would not count Thor out after seeing that teaser today. It looks fantastic.

I think you have the best username ever.

 

[mclay18]

That's cool, I've always liked "underdogs".

I remember last year when The Avengers was the underdog against TDKR.

I did not expect The Avengers to become the behemoth it it now... I expected Iron Man numbers (coupled with inflation and 3D surcharges) but it outperformed all expectations.

And that movie deserved every penny. Joss Whedon finally got vindicated for all those years toiling as a cult TV showrunner and then some. And it was a terrific, entertaining movie.

Just hope Iron Man 3 will live up to the expectations a lot of fans set after The Avengers raised the bar...

 

[Tony Stark]

I think you have the best username ever.

Thanks man!

 

[JayJustROTFL]

I remember last year when The Avengers was the underdog against TDKR.

All star cast VS Nolans batman. It was never the underdog. Just internet wannabe cowboys saying otherwise.

 

[spideymouse]

All star cast VS Nolans batman. It was never the underdog. Just internet wannabe cowboys saying otherwise.

Bats: "Yes, there's seven of you, and only one of me, and yet somehow it still seems like a fair fight."[YT]4-Mw8PSw2cE[/YT]

 

[Sharkboy]

All star cast VS Nolans batman. It was never the underdog. Just internet wannabe cowboys saying otherwise.

It really was the underdog, you forget the previous Bat film destroyed everything in sight at the box office. but come to think of it...I don't know why people ever realised that Nolan's refusal to go 3d would be somewhat of a handicap, I mean it's almost mathematically improbable to go up against 3d prices I'm afraid.

It's a shame because i abhor 3D, going to see IM3 in glorious 2D (the way films were meant to be seen)

 

[Sharkboy]

Bats: "Yes, there's seven of you, and only one of me, and yet somehow it still seems like a fair fight."[YT]4-Mw8PSw2cE[/YT]

I love these videos so much. Especially the parts with Spider-man.

 

[jmc]

All star cast VS Nolans batman. It was never the underdog. Just internet wannabe cowboys saying otherwise.

All-star cast?

 

[Sharkboy]

All-star cast?

Guess I've reached the age where Caine, Oldman and Freeman don't constitute as part of an all star cast anymore.

 

[jmc]

Guess I've reached the age where Caine, Oldman and Freeman don't constitute as part of an all star cast anymore.

Guess you can call it a Legendary Cast. Sounds classier anyway.

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't agree about the all star cast thing, but I did have a good feeling that Avengers would outgross TDKR. TDKR's problem was that it had to follow up on TDK, it was bound to be a let down.

 

[Visceral]

Its a cast much more grounded in reality.

 

[Sharkboy]

I don't agree about the all star cast thing, but I did have a good feeling that Avengers would outgross TDKR. TDKR's problem was that it had to follow up on TDK, it was bound to be a let down.

That really wasn't the factor though, you might as well say the same thing about this film or the Avengers 2, they both have to follow Avengers, logically you'd assume it will make around the same amount if not more. The real reason (other than tragedy, which i'll refrain from talking about) it was the lack of 3D showings which bring significantly more money, meaning even if TDKR matched the same amount of tickets sold...it would have still made less money. You can imagine WB not being particularly happy about that and that the next one will definitely be in 3D which I wouldn't be happy about clearly.

I've made sure to catch IM3 tonight in good ol 2D or nothing