Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Webfoot Hero]

Is it still opening May 3rd in China?

I think so.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Okay, I was just confused because I saw some talk about the China date not being known anymore or something at the BO forums.

Also, apparently IM3 had a $3.6m opening day in the UK and is on track for a $17m+ opening. I think that would be around a $65-70m total right?

 

[Mr. Dent]

The film opened to $4.4m in Austrailia and is looking to match or outgross the Avengers' two day gross there of $8m. Avengers went on to do $54m. Keep in mind though that a holiday came earlier this year than last year over there so that boosts the opening day gross over Avengers.

 

[Liam_H]

Iron Man 3 is the monster a few of us thought it would be.

How so? Didn't most people choose around $1 billion.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Once it became clear that the movie was good to great, a 900m -1b prediction ceased to be controversial. I dont think it's a given, but RDJ in top form and 2+ spectacular set pieces equals big bucks. I'm most curious about the China numbers.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Surprisingly (or maybe not) IM3 is on almost the same pace The Avengers was OS in its frist two days right now.

The Avengers opened in 25 markets to make 36M in two days
IM3 opened in 27 markets to make 35.6M in two days

In many of the territories it's either on track to do just as much or more than Avengers. $170m by Sunday is in play. $600m is a definite lock now and even $700m is likely if it has decent (not even super strong) legs.

I have a feeling now it will outdo the projected $160m OW and I'll go with kedrell in projecting $175m OW for the second highest opening ever.

 

[KangConquers]

It's too early to tell, but this film looks like it might wind up as the highest grossing superhero solo film of all time.

 

[Zing79]

There's no thread about this, and a search has turned up nada within the forums. Does anyone know when tix's will go on sale in Canada on the interwebs? I'd like to pre-purchase my tickets using ULTRA AVX and pick the best seats in the house for the midnight showing.

I just can't seem to find anything out there with an answer and Cineplex in Canada has failed to be of any help.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It's too early to tell, but this film looks like it might wind up as the highest grossing superhero solo film of all time.

It could be but it won't be easy to beat TDKR.

IM3 would need, roughly, 400 m domestic and 700 m overseas.

 

[KangConquers]

It could be but it won't be easy to beat TDKR.

IM3 would need, roughly, 400 m domestic and 700 m overseas.

I've been sold on $400 M domestic for a long time. Foreign markets were sort of the x-factor for me.

It won't be easy, but I think it probably has a 50% shot at doing it.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Not sure IM3 will get the same number of repeat customers since the film's ending is turning out to be very polarizing and it seems to color the opinion of the whole movie.

 

[Mr. Dent]

It's too early to tell, but this film looks like it might wind up as the highest grossing superhero solo film of all time.

Yeah. I can definitely see it getting $410m domestically and $700m OS to outdo TDKR. It's a lock for $600m and we don't even know how good the legs will be. The film's ending is a bit controversial, but the reception overall has been extremely positive OS so there's not reason to believe it won't have legs.

I've been sold on $400 M domestic for a long time. Foreign markets were sort of the x-factor for me.

It won't be easy, but I think it probably has a 50% shot at doing it.

I'd say more like 65% tbh.

 

[shuffleboard]

IM3 is matching or beating The Avengers in a few markets, including Australia and especially in Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia).

 

[DyeLorean]

Here in Argentina Iron Man Three surpassed The Avengers on the first day. The theater was packed.

 

[jmc]

Not sure IM3 will get the same number of repeat customers since the film's ending is turning out to be very polarizing and it seems to color the opinion of the whole movie.

It's definitely not as accessible as Avengers or even IM1, that said word of mouth will still be decent.

 

[KangConquers]

Not sure IM3 will get the same number of repeat customers since the film's ending is turning out to be very polarizing and it seems to color the opinion of the whole movie.

The same number of repeat customers would bring it to $1.5 B. No one's predicting that. But I think $1 B is a lock, and up to $1.2 B is possible.

 

[spider-neil]

It's too early to tell, but this film looks like it might wind up as the highest grossing superhero solo film of all time.

Even adjusted for inflation?
If this movie does indeed become the highest grossing solo superhero movie I think that would confirm Iron Man rather than Spider-Man as Marvel's flagship character.

 

[jmc]

The same number of repeat customers would bring it to $1.5 B. No one's predicting that. But I think $1 B is a lock, and up to $1.2 B is possible.

What, with Star Trek coming in 2 weeks time? Optimistic to say the least my friend. Both Avengers and TDKR had zero competition in order to crack a billion.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Not sure IM3 will get the same number of repeat customers since the film's ending is turning out to be very polarizing and it seems to color the opinion of the whole movie.

But that poses two questions:

1. Who finds the ending polarizing? Fanboys only or the general audience.

2. Do polarizing endings really hurt movies since they get people talking about the movie which only helps marketing.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Even adjusted for inflation?
If this movie does indeed become the highest grossing solo superhero movie I think that would confirm Iron Man rather than Spider-Man as Marvel's flagship character.

I think Avengers already took that title and Iron Man benefited from it.

 

[jmc]

But that poses two questions:

1. Who finds the ending polarizing? Fanboys only or the the general audience.

2. Do polarizing endings really hurt movies since they get people talking about the movie which only helps marketing.

I think it's more a question of accessibility. The film is good but repeated viewings are question mark for me because it's not nearly as universally accessible to everyone as Avengers is. I think people will like this movie a lot, but I'm not so sure it's going to be loved to the point where people are watching it 3-4 times at the theatre.

 

[Mr. Dent]

What, with Star Trek coming in 2 weeks time? Optimistic to say the least my friend. Both Avengers and TDKR had zero competition in order to crack a billion.

Star Trek will be almost a non-factor overseas and domestically IM3 will already have brought in the bulk of its money in the first two weeks. IM3 doesn't get any real competition until FF6, which comes out a whole month later.

I think Avengers already took that title and Iron Man benefited from it.

Avengers is not a character. Spider-Man is still their mascot.

 

[jmc]

What you don't think Star Trek 2 is going to make some serious coinage? Jesus.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Not overseas. $400m at best, and that's a stretch.

 

[spider-neil]

I think Avengers already took that title and Iron Man benefited from it.

Avengers are a group so not a solo entity. IM like Spider-Man are individuals. A Spider-Man movie would make more than the individuals of Avengers with the exception of IM and even that may change when the ASM2 sequel comes out.