Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Liam_H]

LOL you might as well be saying nearly all HP fans are in their teens and younger.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

For the popularity of Marvel characters, Spidey is pretty much #1 across the board. Wolverine might still be #2 outside of films, but Iron Man is now #2 behind Spidey in the film world.

 

[spider-neil]

Box Office Mojo have it exactly right.
Avengers + amazing trailer + great WOM =1B for IM3 despite coming off a poorly received movie (IM2).

Spidey on the other hand didn't have the hype of the Avengers juggernaut behind it, was coming off a 'really' poorly received movie and was retelling the origin and was stuck in the middle of Avengers and TDKR. That movie had 'skip' all over it. 760m really is a decent return with so many things going against it.

I think for ASM 2 to break 1B either one or two things has to happen;
A) the sequel has to be the best Spider-Man movie ever, even better than SM2 (which ASM was not imho).
B) Spidey has to become an Avenger.

Back to IM3 will be interesting to see if it makes more than TDK or TDKR making IM the current most popular (solo) superhero on the planet, ahead of even the big 3 of Spidey, Bats and Supes.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Even if IM3 makes a billion, it will probably still be behind Nolan & Raimi's trilogies overall. That counts for something. And I'll bet that this new Webb trilogy will make more as well. But Iron Man is now definitely in the top 3 on the film side of things. The floor (and ceiling) is getting higher with each film, not just for this series, but likely the whole MCU. Thor and Cap will have substantial upticks I'm sure..

 

[spider-neil]

For IM4 I'm pretty sure Disney/Marvel will offer Downey whatever he wants including a share of the profits because IM is nothing without Downey. It's the truth and we all know it. Avengers can survive without Downey but IM can't.

 

[kedrell]

Even if IM3 makes a billion, it will probably still be behind Nolan & Raimi's trilogies overall. That counts for something. And I'll bet that this new Webb trilogy will make more as well. But Iron Man is now definitely in the top 3 on the film side of things. The floor (and ceiling) is getting higher with each film, not just for this series, but likely the whole MCU. Thor and Cap will have substantial upticks I'm sure..

With Raimi's series you're right but if IM3 gets $1.2B then the three Iron Man films will have made the same $ as Nolan's 3 Batman films. And that is a possible gross for IM3(not sure about the odds of it happening but it's definitely not outlandish).

On another note, what do you all think of the possibility of IM3+ThorTDW = $2B this year WW? Maybe $1.2B for IM3 and $800M for Thor2? It could happen.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think 1.2 billion for IM3 and 800 m for Thor 2 is too optimistic.

I think 1.1 billion and 700 m is the best case scenario.

but there are always surprises. Look at Skyfall.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Also it's worth noting Batman will likely remain the top solo superhero at the box office.

Iron Man is in 3D which means it would need to make way more than 1.1 billion to match TDKR in ticket sales.

You can't consider Iron Man king yet when more people went to see Batman's latest effort.

 

[BigThor]

I think 1.2 billion for IM3 and 800 m for Thor 2 is too optimistic.

I think 1.1 billion and 700 m is the best case scenario.

but there are always surprises. Look at Skyfall.

Not really a big difference there, two hundred million isn't that much in the film world.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Not really a big difference there, two hundred million isn't that much in the film world.

Once you get over a billion it's easy to say 200 m isn't a big difference.

But if I said TASM was going to make almost a billion but it only makes 750 m it's clear I was way off.

 

[Still A ThorFan]

Once word gets out on how bad it is and the sucker treatment regarding the Mandarin that Marvel did to us fans this movie will be Marvel's first bomb. Or if it doesn't bomb it just wont' be a blockbuster.

 

[KangConquers]

For the popularity of Marvel characters, Spidey is pretty much #1 across the board. Wolverine might still be #2 outside of films, but Iron Man is now #2 behind Spidey in the film world.

Iron Man and the Avengers have bulldozed Wolverine and the X-Men, who were only highly popular for 20 years or so, vs. Spider-Man who has been popular for 50.

The same way Wolverine had a spike of popularity and took Hulk's place as Marvel's #2 solo hero, Iron Man has done the same thing, this time to such a degree that Wolverine will likely never catch back up.

I'd say the other big 4 Avengers are right there next to Logan at this point. You see a lot more teenagers tweeting about Thor, Hulk, Loki and Captain America than Wolverine these days.

 

[X-Maniac]

I didn't like it but the general audience will probably love it, so it will do well. It's probably a bit too polarising among the fans to do Avengers numbers though.

 

[KangConquers]

Also it's worth noting Batman will likely remain the top solo superhero at the box office.

Iron Man is in 3D which means it would need to make way more than 1.1 billion to match TDKR in ticket sales.

You can't consider Iron Man king yet when more people went to see Batman's latest effort.

I think in the moment, Batman is #1, Iron Man #2, Spider-Man #3. Overall top 5 brings Superman and Wolverine into play, and probably Docks IM a few spots, but the character has definitely taken off.

 

[KangConquers]

What, with Star Trek coming in 2 weeks time? Optimistic to say the least my friend. Both Avengers and TDKR had zero competition in order to crack a billion.

Iron Man will have already passed IM2 ww total by the time Star Trek comes out. Most of the heavy lifting will be done, and Star Trek will not pose much of a threat in foreign markets, the same way Cap beat Potter in it's second week in the states, but failed to beat it in 75% of foreign markets.

 

[KangConquers]

I expect 320/420 m (domestic/overseas) for MOS for now. Almost 100 m over box office mojo's WW estimate.

That's exactly what I think. If a $300 M domestic movie doesn't break $400 M internationally, it means it seriously underperformed there. I'm expecting a between a 40/60 and a 30/70 domestic/ foreign ratio from most films this summer.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think in the moment, Batman is #1, Iron Man #2, Spider-Man #3. Overall top 5 brings Superman and Wolverine into play, and probably Docks IM a few spots, but the character has definitely taken off.

I'd say Superman secures the #4 spot and Thor should get #5.

Wolverine will probably end up behind Captain America at spot #7 or #8.

 

[kedrell]

Considering that Superman has yet to show us some real proof of current popularity and that I could easily see MoS coming in 3rd this year among superhero films, I don't think I'd rate him so high yet. Now, maybe MoS will set the world on fire with newfound popularity for the character, but that movie is still a couple months away from showing us that. Personally, I think MoS will end up being #3 this year behing IM3 and Thor2.

 

[spider-neil]

I think in the moment, Batman is #1, Iron Man #2, Spider-Man #3. Overall top 5 brings Superman and Wolverine into play, and probably Docks IM a few spots, but the character has definitely taken off.

I think it's

#1 Iron Man
#2 Batman
#3 Spider-Man

The reason I say that is because if IM4, ASM2 and TDKR2 were released same week IM4 would come out on top.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

@BoxOffice: IRON MAN 3: $195.3M Overseas / Global Total. #IronMan3

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/328528826378383361

 

[kedrell]

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/328528826378383361

Interesting, but without comparisons it's hard to know just how well that is.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

Interesting, but without comparisons it's hard to know just how well that is.

Bigger opening than The Avengers last year, which was $185.1M

 

[Sweet Xstacy]

@giteshpandya1m
#IronMan3 explodes w/ colossal $195.3M intl opening from 42 mkts beating Avengers $185.1M debut from 39. @IMAX huge.

 

[kedrell]

Thanks

 

[T"Challa]

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/328528826378383361