The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[DarthSkywalker]

More than the total OW numbers will be drop from Sat-Sun. There is something that just does not compute with people's reactions on this. The audience reviews on RT and IMDB do not reflect a solid "A" cinema score, which is the same score the Force Awakens and Rogue One received.

This was never going to make TFA numbers. TFA had the nostalgia factor going for it, and the fact that people were so turned off by the prequels that they wanted something that reminded them more of the classic films.

General audiences and fans are enjoying it. The over the top fanboys are not. They are the very small minority.

 

[InCali]

Curious about overseas numbers.

Me too. I don't really know much about OS numbers, but I could see TLJ exceeding TFA. Frankly, I think it's a much better movie and the action sequences were quite good. In addition, TFA sort of re-introduces SW and possibly sets the stage for the sequel getting better numbers. US/Canada is off the table with regard to BO numbers. It's going to be a while before we see TFA numbers again. Ep 9, if really good, could out draw TLJ. We could have another Ep 4-6 repeat with TLJ being the best of the bunch but making less money.

 

[Sithborg]

More than the total OW numbers will be drop from Sat-Sun. There is something that just does not compute with people's reactions on this. The audience reviews on RT and IMDB do not reflect a solid "A" cinema score, which is the same score the Force Awakens and Rogue One received.

This was never going to make TFA numbers. TFA had the nostalgia factor going for it, and the fact that people were so turned off by the prequels that they wanted something that reminded them more of the classic films.

An internet poll amplifies certain voices. News at 11.

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't know the weakening of foreign currencies against the dollar makes me think it will be impossible for TLJ to match TFA overseas. These are huge numbers, I guess the only "disappointment" might be if the opening weekend was below Avengers or below 200M, but that doesn't seem likely at this point. I predicted 225, and the numbers so far seem close enough to my prediction.

 

[InCali]

I don't know the weakening of foreign currencies against the dollar makes me think it will be impossible for TLJ to match TFA overseas. These are huge numbers, I guess the only "disappointment" might be if the opening weekend was below Avengers or below 200M, but that doesn't seem likely at this point. I predicted 225, and the numbers so far seem close enough to my prediction.

Have international currencies weakened that much against the dollar in the last 2 years? I don't really keep up on that too much. I know they have vs 5 or so years ago (or so I've heard), but I'm not sure about the last couple of years.

Anyone?

The int'l market is also growing so that could help make up for some of the weakening of currencies.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Me too. I don't really know much about OS numbers, but I could see TLJ exceeding TFA. Frankly, I think it's a much better movie and the action sequences were quite good. In addition, TFA sort of re-introduces SW and possibly sets the stage for the sequel getting better numbers. US/Canada is off the table with regard to BO numbers. It's going to be a while before we see TFA numbers again. Ep 9, if really good, could out draw TLJ. We could have another Ep 4-6 repeat with TLJ being the best of the bunch but making less money.

I think the dollar is stronger now against most overseas currency, so probably not. It would be amazing if it got to a billion again though. Especially as China doesn't seem to care all that much about Star Wars.

 

[spiderman2]

I think the dollar is stronger now against most overseas currency, so probably not. It would be amazing if it got to a billion again though. Especially as China doesn't seem to care all that much about Star Wars.

China is the one place where I am wondering if it can really increase a lot. It didn't do bad there but it didn't do like great numbers there like it did compared to the other OS places. It would be nice if it could really grow in China. R1 made about 69.5 million in China and TFA made about 124 in China.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

China is the one place where I am wondering if it can really increase a lot. It didn't do bad there but it didn't do like great numbers there like it did compared to the other OS places. It would be nice if it could really grow in China. R1 made about 69.5 million in China and TFA made about 124 in China.

It won't increase there. There was no way this movie was ever going to gross as much as TFA. Anywhere really. But you really seemed intent on pushing that. Like TFA wasn't an all time great box office take.

 

[Hotwire]

Just some food for thought. The east coast was getting hit with a snow storm Friday night. That could easily account for a few million in tickets.

 

[StormC]

If the movie has a ~60% drop next weekend like Rogue One did (Christmas Eve), expect a lot of thinkpieces on how audiences are clearly rejecting Last Jedi, just like when Homecoming had a huge drop despite having strong dailies.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If audiences "reject" TLJ, it would be no different then the reaction to the Empire Strikes Back. Which makes this all the more hilarious really.

 

[Grootster]

Sorry to wish bad luck, but I hope this movie has a huge dropoff and Rian's trilogy is cancelled. TFA wasn't my favorite, but at least it was fun, lighthearted, and felt withing the spirit of Star Wars(yes, TLJ made me appreciate TFA more). TLJ just felt miserable and bland, not to mention they ruined the character of Luke. It didn't feel like Star Wars. I don't like the vision behind this film, and I don't want to see any more Star Wars movies that resemble this.

 

[Batgort]

the fix is in... people now know Luke creepily milked and drank from a crazy looking alien while maintaining eye contact with Rey.

 

[InCali]

If the movie has a ~60% drop next weekend like Rogue One did (Christmas Eve), expect a lot of thinkpieces on how audiences are clearly rejecting Last Jedi, just like when Homecoming had a huge drop despite having strong dailies.

Oh. You must be talking about that stuff I don't bother reading. Frankly, I don't think there WILL be a 60% drop.

 

[spiderman2]

So if the movie makes 750 USA that would be like a 20% drop from TFA. If its OS numbers where to have the same kind of drop you would have a OS number of about 9052490712 so that would mean WW of like 1.8 million.

 

[InCali]

the fix is in... people now know Luke creepily milked and drank from a crazy looking alien while maintaining eye contact with Rey.

People should not change when they get older and are confronted by traumatic experiences. They should remain true to the person they were when they were in their early 20s.....

 

[StormC]

Oh. You must be talking about that stuff I don't bother reading. Frankly, I don't think there WILL be a 60% drop.

Christmas Eve falls on Sunday, just like Rogue One with Saturday. It's going to hurt the box office, whether or not the drop is as big as Rogue One remains to me be seen.

Sorry to wish bad luck, but I hope this movie has a huge dropoff and Rian's trilogy is cancelled. TFA wasn't my favorite, but at least it was fun, lighthearted, and felt withing the spirit of Star Wars(yes, TLJ made me appreciate TFA more). TLJ just felt miserable and bland, not to mention they ruined the character of Luke. It didn't feel like Star Wars. I don't like the vision behind this film, and I don't want to see any more Star Wars movies that resemble this.

 

[spiderman2]

It won't increase there. There was no way this movie was ever going to gross as much as TFA. Anywhere really. But you really seemed intent on pushing that. Like TFA wasn't an all time great box office take.

I am saying China is like the one place left to grow for star wars in general. Look at a movie like TF5 witch made 228 in China that is like a extra 100 million. Or even better yet FF8 made 392 in China that is a really big difference.

 

[StormC]

Don't expect China to embrace these movies any time soon.

 

[Grootster]

the fix is in... people now know Luke creepily milked and drank from a crazy looking alien while maintaining eye contact with Rey.

Exactly what I've been waiting to see in a Star Wars film for over a decade!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I am saying China is like the one place left to grow for star wars in general. Look at a movie like TF5 witch made 228 in China that is like a extra 100 million. Or even better yet FF8 made 392 in China that is a really big difference.

Star Wars' appeal is very different from Transformer's appeal.

 

[InCali]

Christmas Eve falls on Sunday, just like Rogue One with Saturday. It's going to hurt the box office, whether or not the drop is as big as Rogue One remains to me be seen.

Christmas falls on a Monday. I think this will help the Box Office. I was talking to the bartender upstairs at the Cinemark yesterday before the show (yes, I said "before" the 12:15pm show) and he was telling me that I was smart (I always like to hear that) for going to the 12:15pm show and beating the traffic and crowds. He said he couldn't understand why so many people show up for the movies on Xmas. He said he thought it was their busiest day of the year. So, if Xmas is a Monday, Xmas Eve is on a Sunday, and the next day is a holiday, it seems to be to be a help.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Christmas falls on a Monday. I think this will help the Box Office. I was talking to the bartender upstairs at the Cinemark yesterday before the show (yes, I said "before" the 12:15pm show) and he was telling me that I was smart (I always like to hear that) for going to the 12:15pm show and beating the traffic and crowds. He said he couldn't understand why so many people show up for the movies on Xmas. He said he thought it was their busiest day of the year. So, if Xmas is a Monday, Xmas Eve is on a Sunday, and the next day is a holiday, it seems to be to be a help.

Christmas Eve has less people, but Christmas Day is one of, if not the biggest day of the year at the movie theater. But that will be a post weekend number. New Year's Eve and Day are the ones that are just unnaturally lower.

 

[InCali]

Star Wars' appeal is very different from Transformer's appeal.

It's appeal is different to me too. LOL.

The reason I think TLJ "might" be able to do better is because I thought the action sequences were Fast and Furious (so to speak). I've heard people write that some foreign audiences are big action spectacle fans. If so, this movie might appeal. Of course the action sequences in TLJ weren't of the Crapformers egregiously stupid, pointless sequences type with dialogue that my dog could have come up with, so maybe I'm wrong.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's appeal is different to me too. LOL.

The reason I think TLJ "might" be able to do better is because I thought the action sequences were Fast and Furious (so to speak). I've heard people write that some foreign audiences are big action spectacle fans. If so, this movie might appeal. Of course the action sequences in TLJ weren't of the Crapformers egregiously stupid, pointless sequences type with dialogue that my dog could have come up with, so maybe I'm wrong.

I think the translation is kind of simple. Less character focused, something more simple usually goes over for something you are dubbing or watching with subtitles. Star Wars and its characters are kind of like a love affair for US/UK audiences. It is a lot more personal then... well anything else really.