The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[DarthSkywalker]

We will see I always thought that a episode 8 could make more if 7 was good because 7 helped to take the bad taste way after the prequles and like I have said before yes people thought TFA would do big things but no one had TFA making what it did so I don't see why this one cant do bigger then people expect to. Leading up to its release TFA was being projected to make like 190-200m yet made 248 so off by 48 and it sure seems like more and more OW projections are off now days. JW no one had making like 208 million either people had it at like 150-170. Deadpool numbers where also much higher then people thought for its OW.

No. TFA was projected by may to break the record and even some legit sources like Mojo had it at something like 275m.

 

[spiderman2]

No. TFA was projected by may to break the record and even some legit sources like Mojo had it at something like 275m.

I don't know where you got the 275 thing from even like a day before the movie came out deadline and boxoffice mojo and like ever other site had it at around 190-200 million and that number keept going up and up after its opening night and then after its opening day the projected number went up again. So I have no idea where this 275 thing came from.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't know where you got the 275 thing from even like a day before the movie came out deadline and boxoffice mojo and like ever other site had it at around 190-200 million and that number keept going up and up after its opening night and then after its opening day the projected number went up again. So I have no idea where this 275 thing came from.

The day before.

231m.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4131&p=.htm

229m

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-fo...lvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-sisters/

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

Deadline brought up 275m on Friday. I can't find their earlier prediction.

So, you were saying?

 

[spiderman2]

The day before.

231m.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4131&p=.htm

229m

http://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-fo...lvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-sisters/

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

Deadline brought up 275m on Friday. I can't find their earlier prediction.

So, you were saying?

The boxoffice mojo 231 is the highest I have seen and the deadline prediction before Open night numbers came in was 190-200 and ever time there was a update after the open night numbers came in and then opening day numbers came in that number they keept pushing it higher and higher in just about ever update.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The boxoffice mojo 231 is the highest I have seen and the deadline prediction before Open night numbers came in was 190-200 and ever time there was a update after the open night numbers came in and then opening day numbers came in that number they keept pushing it higher and higher in just about ever update.

Show me. Because you were wrong about Mojo, which you said was the same range. You said everyone had the same range, and that is clearly wrong.

 

[spiderman2]

Show me. Because you were wrong about Mojo, which you said was the same range. You said everyone had the same range, and that is clearly wrong.

I am not even sure how you find old data like that but even if you look at like that deadline link you posted in like ever update the amount was like going up and up.

 

[JOE]

I think we can all agree anything over 200M OW is a win.

The Avengers had 207M in 2012 and Age of Ultron had a 191M OW. An 8% drop is actually great considering it was the biggest OW of all time back in 2012.

The Force Awakens did about 248M OW, so a similar drop would put it at about 228M. Totally achievable, but even a 15% drop would keep the OW over 210M which is what I'm hoping for. Anything over that is gravy. Star Wars is winning, what a time to be a Marvel and Star Wars fan!

 

[paulogonza]

no thursday midnight numbers yet?

 

[spiderman2]

no thursday midnight numbers yet?

Way to early for that it is still morning pacific time.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

First estimate: $45 million in Thursday previews.

http://deadline.com/2017/12/the-las...ice-thursday-night-preview-record-1202227654/

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I am not even sure how you find old data like that but even if you look at like that deadline link you posted in like ever update the amount was like going up and up.

So what you are saying is you have no idea what the estimates were.

 

[Iceman]

I think we can all agree anything over 200M OW is a win.

The Avengers had 207M in 2012 and Age of Ultron had a 191M OW. An 8% drop is actually great considering it was the biggest OW of all time back in 2012.

The Force Awakens did about 248M OW, so a similar drop would put it at about 228M. Totally achievable, but even a 15% drop would keep the OW over 210M which is what I'm hoping for. Anything over that is gravy. Star Wars is winning, what a time to be a Marvel and Star Wars fan!

Yeah $200m plus is a big win.

 

[spiderman2]

First estimate: $45 million in Thursday previews.

http://deadline.com/2017/12/the-las...ice-thursday-night-preview-record-1202227654/

Interesting so R1 did 29 and TFA did 57 in comparison.

 

[Sithborg]

Sounds like it is $45 million in previews. Should be interesting to see what the weekend multipliers will be.

 

[Erzengel]

$45M last night and $106M WW.

 

[spiderman2]

So sounds like the movie is on pace to make like 210 OW down almost 40m from TFA so underachieving. I know ever one talks about TFA being the first star wars movie in a while but there is really now reason this movie shouldn't have been able to match or make more then TFA. Sounds like its box office and fan reaction are both under achiving.

 

[DKDetective]

So sounds like the movie is on pace to make like 210 OW down almost 40m from TFA so underachieving. I know ever one talks about TFA being the first star wars movie in a while but there is really now reason this movie shouldn't have been able to match or make more then TFA. Sounds like its box office and fan reaction are both under achiving.

Not at all underachieving. This is the top of the projected range. Every reasonable analysis predicted that TLJ would be down from TFA. It is the pattern of both previous trilogies.

 

[Iceman]

So for total domestic are we looking at $550m-$600m?

 

[spiderman2]

Not at all underachieving. This is the top of the projected range. Every reasonable analysis predicted that TLJ would be down from TFA. It is the pattern of both previous trilogies.

I know but I really do think there is no reason for this movie to not do less at least TFA numbers on OW. Yes TFA was the first star wars movie in a long time but the fact that this was like the last movie with Fisher and that it was coming after TFA and R1 movies people liked unlike the prequles it will should have cancled out the fact that TFA was the first star wars movie in a while advantage and looking at this movies reception its sounding like people are a lot more mixed on it then they where for TFA. With the amount of negativity I am hearing you wouldn't think the movie was a 93 on RT.

 

[Tony Stark]

Talking to several friends and just looking at the audience reviews, I think this might get less than an A- cinemascore. This movie just seems to be very polarizing. Had 4 friends at work that went last night, one said best movie since ESB, said good but not as good as TFA, the other two said bad as the prequels. That seems to match exactly what the audience scores are showing on RT. I'm hoping for an A- cinemascore, but I think there's a real possibility it could be a B+ with that kind of disparity in the audience reaction.

 

[spiderman2]

So for total domestic are we looking at $550m-$600m?

I would say its to early to tell fells like TFA was more of a crowed pleaser then this and also had a bigger OW then this is going to get so hard to know just how big of a drop we are looking at compared to that movie. TFA made about 248 OW and would go on to make a little more then 936 million. R1 on the other hand made about 155 OW and went on to make around 532. So TLJ is going to make more then R1 but far less then TFA on OW has right now deadline has TLJ making like 202-208 million based of its opening night numbers. If you look at OW numbers between the 3 movies TLJ more then half way between. What I mean is TFA made 248 R1 made 155 so middle of that would be like 193 and that is less then TLJ is going to end at for OW. So if TLJ where to be around the middle of its over domestic numbers it would make around 730 but we will need to see what its OW end at and how it does next week to get a idea of its legs. If it makes 210 OW it would only need a mutlplie of like 2.85 ish to get to 600. If it where to only do 550 I would think that would be a big disappointment has that would only be like 18 million more then R1 and you would think it would do a lot more then that has R1 you expected to make a lot less with it being a spin of and all.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/12/the-las...ice-thursday-night-preview-record-1202227654/

Early industry estimates have Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi flying to a $202M-$208M opening the third or fourth best of all-time after Force Awakens ($247.966M), Jurassic World ($208.8M) and Marvel’s The Avengers ($207.4M) and the second best December has ever seen after Force Awakens. Today alone, including last night’s Thursday night previews of $45M, the Rian Johnson-directed Episode VIII is looking between $97M-$100M, again the second best opening day ever after Force Awakens’ $119.1M. Two years ago, Force Awakens became the fastest grossing title to $100M, not in days, but hours. Specifically it hit $100M 18 hours after its 7PM Thursday night showings at 1PM that Friday. Yes, this could possible go even higher to $210M as the weekend goes on. Where and how well is this playing? “It is going to do $200M on its opening weekend and it is working everywhere that the seats face the screens” says one exhibition czar. Last Jedi is propped by 93% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82% definite recommend from PostTrak audiences.

 

[Raiden]

Talking to several friends and just looking at the audience reviews, I think this might get less than an A- cinemascore. This movie just seems to be very polarizing. Had 4 friends at work that went last night, one said best movie since ESB, said good but not as good as TFA, the other two said bad as the prequels. That seems to match exactly what the audience scores are showing on RT. I'm hoping for an A- cinemascore, but I think there's a real possibility it could be a B+ with that kind of disparity in the audience reaction.

Do you think the mixed reception of TLJ can affect Episode 9’s box office in 2 years?

 

[spiderman2]

I think mixed/bad reception always has some kind of effect on the next movie in a sirrias has it simple makes people less hyped for the next one and makes people trust the next movie less. How much of a effect it has I don't know.

 

[Mysteryman]

In terms of box office, I think that it is doing just fine.
Unfortunately, I probalby won't be able to see it until next week.