The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[DarthSkywalker]

Well domestically it's not that big of a hit. But international markets love those movies for some reason.

Adjusted for inflation, the only Star Wars movie to do under 500m domestically is AotC.

 

[Sithborg]

It is insane how much TFA did domestically.

 

[Roose Bolton]

And insane how bad AotC is.

 

[StormC]

Originally I pinned the movie as doing around Avengers 2012 dollars at a cool 1.5 billion, a notable but not massive knock down in intake from the previous movie, given for a lack of novelty for being the first new SW movie in a long time (both in general and as a sequel to ROTJ) and how the first movie in a SW trilogy always does best.

With Carrie Fisher's death, though? I voted 1.6-1.8 billion. It's going to be the next Ledger/Walker boost. I think optimistically with very strong buzz it could match TFA, but surpassing it seems unlikely. I feel like TFA is the ceiling for the modern tentpole blockbuster.

Han probably is the most poular Star Wars character period, with an strong argument to be made for Vader.

Vader is more well known amongst the general public, but SW fans probably slightly prefer Han.

 

[Kyloren2015]

I think it will do 2 billion . For Carrie's death and ticket prices are always getting higher .

 

[Grootster]

I'm really curious how this one's going to do at the box-office. I could see it being bigger than TFA because of the return of Luke, but it seems like the box office for movies has been kind of weird recently. Transformers underpreformed, and now Spider-man has had a huge dropoff. I could see it making slightly less, maybe significantly less if people feel like it's too safe.

 

[Sithborg]

Spider-man's drop was pretty standard for a big blockbuster. It's the 65+% drop that is bad drops.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Say the Last Jedi opens to 200m and gets to 600m domestic. In no way is that a disappointment. Though if it gets to a 200m opening, you would expect 700m is in play with the legs all the Star Wars movies have had.

I believe Rogue One has the worst multiplier, and it is at something like 3.43. Say TLJ got to 200m opening weekend and got a similar multiplier. That would be 686m. That would be the third best total of all time.

 

[spiderman2]

While those are still crazy numbers a 600 million usa would be almost a 400m drop from TFA I think that would be a big disappointment. I really think just about ever one in hear is underrating how much this movie is going to make. I think the damaged done by star wars 1-3 cancels out the fact that TFA had nostalga on its side.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

While those are still crazy numbers a 600 million usa would be almost a 400m drop from TFA I think that would be a big disappointment. I really think just about ever one in hear is underrating how much this movie is going to make. I think the damaged done by star wars 1-3 cancels out the fact that TFA had nostalga on its side.

Being the 6th movie all time to make 600m domestically would be a disappointment how?

 

[spiderman2]

Because that is like a 40% drop from the last one and a franchise that always makes mad money and there is no reason the movie shouldn't make around the same has TFA considering star wars 1-3 turned a lot of people away and TFA got a lot of people back into star wars.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Because that is like a 40% drop from the last one and a franchise that always makes mad money and there is no reason the movie shouldn't make around the same has TFA considering star wars 1-3 turned a lot of people away and TFA got a lot of people back into star wars.

There are plenty of reasons why it wouldn't make the same amount of money, including this being the third Star Wars movies in 2 years. How much money do you think "The Empire Strikes Back", considered by many the best Star Wars movie, did compared to "Star Wars"? It dropped over 30% from 307m to 209m.

 

[spiderman2]

There are plenty of reasons why it wouldn't make the same amount of money, including this being the third Star Wars movies in 2 years. How much money do you think "The Empire Strikes Back", considered by many the best Star Wars movie, did compared to "Star Wars"? It dropped over 30% from 307m to 209m.

That was different because that was a case of something that had never been done before being made in star wars were empire strikes back was not a brain new never done thing before like star wars was. I think it is part of the reason that Spider-Man made more then Spider-Man 2 even with Spider-Man 2 being much better movie.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

That was different because that was a case of something that had never been done before being made in star wars were empire strikes back was not a brain new never done thing before like star wars was. I think it is part of the reason that Spider-Man made more then Spider-Man 2 even with Spider-Man 2 being much better movie.

TFA is the first sequel to the OT, and it came 32 years later.

No movie has ever made 800m before TFA. TFA did almost 190m more then any other movie has ever done on its first release. The chances TLJ matches it are slim to none.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Interesting look at the potential box office and how TLJ will probably be the most frontloaded Star Wars movie yet.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...the-least-leggy-star-wars-movie/#2667a3de4f81

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The second Star Wars trilogy films have dipped in the past.

That was back when it used to go 3 years between releases but now it is 2 years between releases for VII and VIII and IX currently and that was back when there were no in-between Star Wars releases like Rogue One and Han Solo.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=starwars.htm

 

[Grootster]

I'm thinking that this one might make less than TFA, it just doesn't seem like people are as hyped for it.

 

[JOE]

Anything over 1.5B for this movie is a HUGE win. It's going to be nearly impossible to do what TFA did. The drought from ROTJ is not something that easily replicated, prequels aside. Maybe that's why they're making us wait so long for the trailer lol!

 

[mclay18]

I'm looking at the ticket sales for my theater, and the 7 p.m. and 7:30 shows for Thursday, December 14 are already sold out.

I think it may open as big as TFA did, maybe a tad lower. It'll be more frontloaded but still a phenomenally successful sequel.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm looking at the ticket sales for my theater, and the 7 p.m. and 7:30 shows for Thursday, December 14 are already sold out.

I think it may open as big as TFA did, maybe a tad lower. It'll be more frontloaded but still a phenomenally successful sequel.

This is exactly what I expect.

 

[TheVileOne]

This not making more than The Force Awakens is pretty much a given, but it will still make a lot of money. The Force Awakens made over $900 million domestic. That never happens ever. And I don't think it will happen again for a long time. It happened with The Force Awakens because it was the first new Star Wars movie in 10 years and it was the perfect storm for Star Wars mania. It was one of those lightning in a bottle moments, and the film captured it. It was a cultural event. It was more than just a movie.

But yeah, I'm expecting $1-1.5 billion range as well.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I think TLJ will have an OW in the range of (225-230) million. The fact that it is out selling Rogue One quite comprehensively even when the movie is 65 days out is bonkers. It was a spin-off to the main saga movies but still Rogue One's tickets went on sale just 16 days before the release and it also had huge hype at the time when tickets first went on sale. TLJ will have a huge OW.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

How much of a factor will Carrie Fisher's passing play? At first, I thought it would be significant, but now I don't know.

I agree that the nostalgia angle is gone. With movies dropping every year, no one will be starved for Star Wars. The box office will rely purely on the strength of the film.

Agreed on all accounts.

 

[FunkMiller]

Don’t think TLJ will outgross TFA, but it’ll be in the same ball park. About 1.8 billion worldwide, I’d say.

It’ll be episode nine that outgrosses them both.

 

[Zur-en-Arrh]

Similar thoughts to Miller. Will be tough to top TFA but I'm sure it won't be too far behind.