The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[spiderman2]

I think people are under estimating this movie and its boxoffice for a few reasons.

1. When it comes to star wars it is such a big franchise that I don't think you can ever estimate it like correctly.
2. I know that we knew that TFA would be a big movie but no one had it being has big has it is. A lot of people had it around 190-200 OW not the like 250 it made or the like 950 million USA it made over all.
3. People talk about TFA being the first star wars movie in 10 years but I think people underestimate how the prequles damaged star wars. Has much has TFA made had the prequles been better TFA would have done even better.
4. Now that people got the bad taste of the sequles out of there month and like/loved TFA people are more hyped for star wars then even before TFA came out.
5. luke having a bigger rule in this movie is creating a lot of hype.
6. Fisher being gone I think is going to make it so people want to see her in a movie one last time.
7. Most people really loved the new characters in TFA and are going to want to see what happends next.
8. It sure fells like more and more movies now days the predections end up being low and considering that and again that I think star wars is so big that it is easy to under perdect makes me sure that the movie will make more then people are saying.

Point is I think most people are underestimating this movie big time. I see this movie at worst making 2 billion and I think it could even make up to 2.5 billion WW and could even be the first movie to make a billion in just the USA. I think the chance that this makes less then 2 billion WW is only like 10%.

270 OW- 1 billion over all USA
1.2 Billion OS
2.2 billion WW is what I think.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I wonder if it tops TFA's opening?

It will not. But it has a legit chance of being the #2 all time opening.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

It will not. But it has a legit chance of being the #2 all time opening.

This is what I’m thinking as well.

 

[AverageMan]

DCEU fans when they read about Star Wars tracking

 

[Incarnadine]

I don't know what this will do by the time it finishes its run, but OW will be massive.
I didn't think to look for tickets until today (still 20 days out, 19 until "previews") and I checked Thursday, Friday and Saturday showings at 3 different theaters and it's just nuts.
Thursday was a lost cause, everything is either sold out or the few remaining seats are up front or way off to the sides.
Friday was pretty much the same except for the ridiculously early shows (there are shows at 2:35 am, 3:05 am, 6:00 am and 6:30 am) which, not surprisingly, still had a good selection, but there were more seats sold already than you'd think.
I finally settled for 12:45 on Saturday which still had a small number of good seats left, all the showings after that were virtually sold out except the front row and a few scattered singles.

Every single showing with reserved seats will obviously be sell outs long before it actually opens, as will the regular non reserved shows which will come on sale closer to release date.

This will be the most fun tracking sell outs since the first Hunger Games (it was fascinating watch theaters add more and more screens and showtimes as everything kept selling out as fast as they added them before it opened)

 

[Karelia]

I got tickets for thursday at 7. I needed 5 tickets. All that was left were some at the very top on the far right.

I guess better than being in the first few front rows.

 

[Orba]

Never been able to understand people that would choose to sit so close to the screen that they have to turn their heads to see what is going on.

 

[JOE]

I voted 1.6-1.8B with the hope that I'm wrong, but if I'm right that's still a MASSIVE haul. The future of Star Wars is very bright.

 

[Grootster]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say this will make significantly less than TFA and Rogue One. It will be a success, but I think it will be more in-line with a typical blockbuster than what TFA was (since this doesn't have the same novelty that TFA did).

I hate to beat the dead horse, but in my friend circle not a lot of people are terribly hyped for this movie. My Facebook is blowing up with Infinity War messages and posts 6 months before the movie comes out, but everyone's still pretty quiet about this.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say this will make significantly less than TFA and Rogue One. It will be a success, but I think it will be more in-line with a typical blockbuster than what TFA was (since this doesn't have the same novelty that TFA did).

I hate to beat the dead horse, but in my friend circle not a lot of people are terribly hyped for this movie. My Facebook is blowing up with Infinity War messages and posts 6 months before the movie comes out, but everyone's still pretty quiet about this.

It is actually tracking to crack 200M+ OW. It’s going to make more than R1. Why on Earth would you turn to what’s going on on Facebook over actual analysis and statistics?

 

[scarlet-witch]

I think it makes more than Rogue One easily, but I'm not sure about topping TFA. I hope it does.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

I think it makes more than Rogue One easily, but I'm not sure about topping TFA. I hope it does.

OW: 215-230M
Domestic: 750-800M
OS: 800-900M
Worldwide: 1.6-1.7B

Those are my perdictions.

 

[Grootster]

It is actually tracking to crack 200M+ OW. It’s going to make more than R1. Why on Earth would you turn to what’s going on on Facebook over actual analysis and statistics?

Those predictions could end up being wrong. Even if it opens strong (which I don't doubt) it could have a dropoff during the following weeks. A lot of people will go to watch it the first time because they watched TFA and want to see how the story's going to continue; but they may not see it a second time.

 

[Drizzle]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say this will make significantly less than TFA and Rogue One. It will be a success, but I think it will be more in-line with a typical blockbuster than what TFA was (since this doesn't have the same novelty that TFA did).

I hate to beat the dead horse, but in my friend circle not a lot of people are terribly hyped for this movie. My Facebook is blowing up with Infinity War messages and posts 6 months before the movie comes out, but everyone's still pretty quiet about this.

I don't know about it beating The Force Awakens, but The Last Jedi is going to crush Rogue One.

 

[Sithborg]

Even Rogue One got a 3x multiplier. Holiday movies tend to have long legs. $500 domestic seems like a good floor.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Star Wars movies have long legs. Even AotC did. But don't let that get in the way of the narrative this movie is doomed.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

Star Wars movies have long legs. Even AotC did. But don't let that get in the way of the narrative this movie is doomed.

But Grootsters Facebook, Darth. His Facebook!

 

[Grootster]

But Grootsters Facebook, Darth. His Facebook!

It's not just Facebook, it's life in general. Everyone's extremely hyped for an Avengers movie that's still 6 months away and that we still don't know a whole lot about yet. Whenever I talk to people about Star Wars (which is about 2 weeks away, most of them are just like "yeah I'll see it at some point". I may have trouble even organizing a group of friends to go see the movie with me on opening night. Just to put things in perspective, of all the people I know I'm probably the most excited for TLJ, and I'm less excited for it than the past 2 (and most other movies this year). Most people I know only have a passive interest in it, and I kind of get the same vibe from a lot of people online (obviously this isn't the case in forums specifically dedicated to TLJ, like this one). I have a theory about this, but I don't have time to type it up right now.

Don't get me wrong, I think it will do well and make good money (if nothing else just from people who grew up with the originals), just not as much as the others since the novelty has worn off.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

It's not just Facebook, it's life in general. Everyone's extremely hyped for an Avengers movie that's still 6 months away and that we still don't know a whole lot about yet. Whenever I talk to people about Star Wars (which is about 2 weeks away, most of them are just like "yeah I'll see it at some point". I may have trouble even organizing a group of friends to go see the movie with me on opening night. Just to put things in perspective, of all the people I know I'm probably the most excited for TLJ, and I'm less excited for it than the past 2 (and most other movies this year). Most people I know only have a passive interest in it, and I kind of get the same vibe from a lot of people online (obviously this isn't the case in forums specifically dedicated to TLJ, like this one). I have a theory about this, but I don't have time to type it up right now.

Don't get me wrong, I think it will do well and make good money (if nothing else just from people who grew up with the originals), just not as much as the others since the novelty has worn off.

BATB managed to make a billion without you becoming aware, so you’ll have to forgive me if I don’t put much stock in your circle of communication, or anecdotal evidence.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If only there were presales to track...

 

[DarthSkywalker]

BATB managed to make a billion without you becoming aware, so you’ll have to forgive me if I don’t put much stock in your circle of communication, or anecdotal evidence.

He also apparently missed the Star Wars trailer drop.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

He also apparently missed the Star Wars trailer drop.

I do like how his talking points have shifted before and after the trailer dropped. Before, Disney was ashamed to show it off. Now, no ones even that interested anway.

 

[Grootster]

BATB managed to make a billion without you becoming aware, so you’ll have to forgive me if I don’t put much stock in your circle of communication, or anecdotal evidence.

I don't care about the Beauty and the Beast remake because it's not something I've kept up with, or grew up with. As with most movies I don't care about, I didn't concern myself with the box office for it. Star Wars is a franchise I've grown up with and kept up with to some degree for over ten years, so I feel like I can at least make a guess. I acknowledge that I could be completely wrong, but at least I can base my Star Wars predictions on something (even if it's just anecdotal evidence from Facebook and whatnot). Before BATB came out, I wouldn't have be able to make a fair prediction for it whatsoever since I know so little about that franchise and it's fanbase.

I do like how his talking points have shifted before and after the trailer dropped.

You do realize that it's possible for someone's opinions and beliefs to change and evolve over time, right? Or do I still have to stick to the exact same thing I said several months ago?

That much being said, I don't think my thoughts on the matter have changed, at least not that drastically. I recall saying a while back that I expect more marketing closer to the movie. In my opinion we still had a terrible marketing drought over the summer and early fall, and the fact that the marketing is finally kicking in now doesn't change that.

Before, Disney was ashamed to show it off. Now, no ones even that interested anway.

Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. And I still somewhat stand by both of them. We're six months away from Infinity War and Marvel is already hyping the heck out of that. That's what marketing for a movie of this scale should be like. There's a problem when the marketing for a Star Wars movie doesn't even kick in until two months before the movie. I'd argue it didn't even fully kick in full-swing until a couple weeks ago (and that's if you consider sidebar ads and repetitive photos of Rey and Kylo holding lightsabers "full-swing" - no pun intended.)

For what it's worth I think the TV spot and international trailer campaign has been great for his film. Even that is underwhelming in comparison to most Hollywood movies (including the past two Star Wars'), but in this case that's exactly what I want. They've mostly been reused or extended shots from the main trailers, and we haven't got an overwhelming amount of them. Unlike TFA and RO, I haven't seen anything I regret. We don't need 50 TV spots with new footage in each one, a handful of reused clips does the job considering they're just ads that are meant to be crammed into commercial breaks for the general TV viewer who isn't keeping track of every new clip.

However, that's all off-topic and beside the point. I probably shouldn't have even replied considering these posts solely exist to tear apart arguments I made months ago as a way of beating around the bush instead of coming up with an actual explanation for why TLJ will make more than I say. Actually, my theory for why I believe people aren't as hyped for TLJ has less to do with the way Lucasfilm has handled marketing.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I really enjoyed that entire convention dedicated to Marvel they had in April, where they dropped the first trailer.

 

[kickass]

I’m predicting $215-220 Million OW. Variety reported the film is tracking within the $200 Million range. I’d assume that means it’s already within $200 Million lol.