The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[Mjölnir]

Isn't this a Box Office thread? This threads viewpoint is boxoffice and profitability.

As to how good or bad a movie is-that's for other threads

I was probably still in the thinking mode of other threads, going through them quickly, and ended up misinterpreting the point of your word "grief". My bad on that.

But to comment on the grief regarding profit, SW does have a lot of expectations on it being the biggest franchise in the world on a film by film comparison. TLJ is a SW film and while it wasn't expected to do quite as big business as TFA it's not good to have a large drop.

 

[InCali]

We're looking at a situation we're something of an anomaly is occurring between critics and word of mouth, this isn't following any pattern that we're use to. So all bets are off right now as to what happens next.

Yup.

 

[Sithborg]

It is always possible that TFA was the anomaly, and that Rogue One and what appears to be TLJ are the more likely performances.

 

[los pollos]

My take on this movie's disappointing legs so far:

1) This movie has mixed WOM, I don't see how you can deny it. There is a significant portion of people who are sour on this movie and are making it known across youtube, social media and to their friends and family. The mixed reception also impacts repeat views.

2) This movie is pretty long. 2 hours 35 mins kinda hurts the number of possible showtimes theaters can play, the families who have impatient kids, as well as people who don't love the movie, but were willing to make repeat viewings. This movie is 20 minutes longer than Force Awakens by comparison.

3) Actual competition. Jumanji is eating into this movie's revenue in a significant way, it grew from an estimate of $14M for CD to $19M in actuals at the same time TLJ dropped from $32 in estimates to $27.5M in actuals. They both go after the same audiences, but Jumanji might be attracting enough families away from Star Wars to make an impact against it.

The China numbers are also looking like it's going to be pretty weak, since Gavin Feng is saying that the pre-sales are likely leading to a sub-$30M opening. https://***********/weier1231997/status/945465768371613696

 

[Romannen]

Someone press the big red button with the word panic on it.

I wish people would stop exaggerating.

 

[jmc]

It is always possible that TFA was the anomaly, and that Rogue One and what appears to be TLJ are the more likely performances.

I think you'd have to start looking at adjusted for inflation figures and what the weekly percentage drops where for each film to get an idea of that.

 

[Iceman]

It is always possible that TFA was the anomaly, and that Rogue One and what appears to be TLJ are the more likely performances.

TFA I'm sure is the anomaly. TLJ is doing fine although I also think it would be doing even better if everyone was on board, and I think that could have been achieved.

 

[Agent Orange]

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 had a pretty gigantic drop from week 1 to week 2 in North America. 70% I believe and it finished under 400 million domestic. The international gross boosted it to 1.3 billion.

Potter's fanbase isn't as large as Star Wars but it is beloved worldwide so it was interesting to see how fast the finale sputtered out in NA. Hollywood used to hold domestic grosses as sacred but international grosses are really boosting films in recent years. That worldwide billion mark is beginning to lose it's shine, though.

 

[Sithborg]

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 had a pretty gigantic drop from week 1 to week 2 in North America. 70% I believe and it finished under 400 million domestic. The international gross boosted it to 1.3 billion.

Potter's fanbase isn't as large as Star Wars but it is beloved worldwide so it was interesting to see how fast the finale sputtered out in NA. Hollywood used to hold domestic grosses as sacred but international grosses are really boosting films in recent years. That worldwide billion mark is beginning to lose it's shine, though.

I don't know, I think a billion is still difficult. Three movies that I thought for sure would hit it didn't this year.

 

[Romannen]

I don't know, I think a billion is still difficult.

You mean a billion worldwide? It's already at 800 million.

 

[Flemm]

If there's a JL-like effect on Episode IX and it actually far-underperforms, I will be shocked.

I would also. Batman versus Superman is obviously an extreme case. Whatever one may think of the movie, there was an unusually awful disconnect between what people wanted and what they got in that particular case.

And Justice League was really not much better. Shorter and less boring, but it wasn't a good movie either.

However, the possibility that some similarities exist is not the same thing as suggesting equivalency. There can be some similarities, just not to the same extreme degree.

One thing about BvS is that it was a horrible way to start a universe. Not only was the movie not good, it gave the impression that the DC universe was the boring, depressing, pretentious comics universe, where heroes can't be heroes.

I think that The Last Jedi is a much better movie. I certainly liked it a lot more. But I'm not sure that it really does the Star Wars universe any favors. Don't try to act like a hero. It's all pointless, cyclical and futile. It's the same thing over and over.

That may be "interesting" commentary on some level, but people don't go to a Star Wars movie because they want to hear about the futility of traditional heroism.

 

[Sithborg]

You mean a billion worldwide? It's already at 800 million.

In general, it is difficult to get a billion.

 

[Mysteryman]

In general, it is difficult to get a billion.

Which is why it is impressive that TLJ is going to get there pretty quickly.

 

[Agent Orange]

Apparently The Last Jedi has had a polarizing response in Japan too -- from both fans AND critics. This is the most shocking news I've read since the film's release. The film pays loving tribute to the franchise's Shinto/samurai roots (The Hidden Fortress). Heck, Snoke's throne room is straight out of a Kurosawa film. :/

We'll see how time treats this movie but I loved it. I suppose that I understand why it made some fans uncomfortable but because it worked for me on such a profound visceral level I can't reconcile with the angst being displayed. And I'm a 30+ year fan who shut Star Wars out of my life post-prequels. I didn't revisit the franchise until 2012 when a friend told me that The Clone Wars series was good (I didnt believe him). I watched it and it reignited my interest in the series.

 

[CaptainWagner]

My take on this movie's disappointing legs so far:

1) This movie has mixed WOM, I don't see how you can deny it. There is a significant portion of people who are sour on this movie and are making it known across youtube, social media and to their friends and family. The mixed reception also impacts repeat views.


3) Actual competition. Jumanji is eating into this movie's revenue in a significant way, it grew from an estimate of $14M for CD to $19M in actuals at the same time TLJ dropped from $32 in estimates to $27.5M in actuals. They both go after the same audiences, but Jumanji might be attracting enough families away from Star Wars to make an impact against it.

1) Yeah, that's a big thing. The average audiences may be overwhelmingly enjoying it, but they aren't the ones who seize media attention. It's the people who are angry about it that make the most noise, and therefore control the narrative a lot of people see.

3) That's another good point. Did TFA really have any competition besides the Chipmunks? Jumangi surprised everyone and is shooting for a lot of the same demographics.

 

[Iceman]

I think that The Last Jedi is a much better movie. I certainly liked it a lot more. But I'm not sure that it really does the Star Wars universe any favors. Don't try to act like a hero. It's all pointless, cyclical and futile. It's the same thing over and over.

That may be "interesting" commentary on some level, but people don't go to a Star Wars movie because they want to hear about the futility of traditional heroism.

I think there is a lot to this. I won't disagree with anyone claiming TLJ is a good film but at the same time I don't think the film has done the SW universe a huge favour beyond what was expected of it. A big boost was likely expected (and will have been provided for a fair number of moviegoers) but this has turned out to be a tangential boost for many which will have turned a minority off and generated less extra excitement for IX than you would have expected from VIII for others.

 

[spiderman2]

It is always possible that TFA was the anomaly, and that Rogue One and what appears to be TLJ are the more likely performances.

You could say that but with RO being a spin off it was never going to make the same kind of money that TFA and TLJ was going to make and star war movies have never really been normal when it comes to boxoffice has it has such a big fan base.

My take on this movie's disappointing legs so far:

1) This movie has mixed WOM, I don't see how you can deny it. There is a significant portion of people who are sour on this movie and are making it known across youtube, social media and to their friends and family. The mixed reception also impacts repeat views.

2) This movie is pretty long. 2 hours 35 mins kinda hurts the number of possible showtimes theaters can play, the families who have impatient kids, as well as people who don't love the movie, but were willing to make repeat viewings. This movie is 20 minutes longer than Force Awakens by comparison.

3) Actual competition. Jumanji is eating into this movie's revenue in a significant way, it grew from an estimate of $14M for CD to $19M in actuals at the same time TLJ dropped from $32 in estimates to $27.5M in actuals. They both go after the same audiences, but Jumanji might be attracting enough families away from Star Wars to make an impact against it.

The China numbers are also looking like it's going to be pretty weak, since Gavin Feng is saying that the pre-sales are likely leading to a sub-$30M opening. https://***********/weier1231997/status/945465768371613696

1 I agree with big time I have heard people say that forms like this are not the majoret of fans and while that may be true the amount of negativity towards this movie compared to TFA is night and day difference. No movie is never 100% liked/loved but TFA have very little negativity on like facebook, youtube etc where this movie is getting a lot and even the negativity towards TFA was people saying that the movie was to much like ANH didn't do enough new but was not really a bad movie where the negativity towards this movie is more like this sucks it destroyed star wars, the prequles where better. I never heard comments like that towards TFA ever.

 

[spiderman2]

In general, it is difficult to get a billion.

Not like it used to be though now days we are getting like 3 movies or so a year doing it where it used to be like maybe 1 a year doing it.

 

[jmc]

I would also. Batman versus Superman is obviously an extreme case. Whatever one may think of the movie, there was an unusually awful disconnect between what people wanted and what they got in that particular case.

And Justice League was really not much better. Shorter and less boring, but it wasn't a good movie either.

However, the possibility that some similarities exist is not the same thing as suggesting equivalency. There can be some similarities, just not to the same extreme degree.

One thing about BvS is that it was a horrible way to start a universe. Not only was the movie not good, it gave the impression that the DC universe was the boring, depressing, pretentious comics universe, where heroes can't be heroes.

I think that The Last Jedi is a much better movie. I certainly liked it a lot more. But I'm not sure that it really does the Star Wars universe any favors. Don't try to act like a hero. It's all pointless, cyclical and futile. It's the same thing over and over.

That may be "interesting" commentary on some level, but people don't go to a Star Wars movie because they want to hear about the futility of traditional heroism.

The big similarity between the two films is indeed cynicism. That type of interpretation for both universes may be appealing to a certain section of the audience, but the reality is most people want their heroes to be heroes. If you make a film pointing out the flaws of your hero, especially one that has been loved by so many for 40 years, what type of reaction do you really expect to get when he's presented as a failure? Of course people are going to push back, the film is saying the character they look up to was never really worth looking up to in the first place.

Star Wars, DC, Marvel, James Bond, Indiana Jones, Die Hard, etc, at their core they're all very simple stories about good guys vs bad guys. They're not overly deep, they're generally not themed too heavily, it's just a classic good vs evil, hero journey stuff. And that's what people like the most, they like seeing good triumph over evil. And there's nothing wrong with that.

When people say something like 'Why must we follow the same type of story?' my retort is 'what exactly is wrong with that type of story?'. If the argument is we've seen it a thousand times before I don't know if that's a good enough justification. You're advocating change for the sake of it not because there's something wrong with the structure. Different doesn't automatically mean good, nor does it even mean it's right. There's a reason Robin Hood has lasted for hundreds of years and that's because the foundations for that type of story have always been strong. Certain stories fit a certain mould - and sometimes that's perfectly ok.

 

[spiderman2]

I pointed out earlier that I expected TFA to be the biggest BO hit, TLJ to bring in the least, and Ep9 to be somewhere in between. Sound familiar (Think OT)?

I predicted 1.4-1.6B so I see the BO results as not surprising (so far) nor particularly good. Let's see what the next week brings and we'll know more.

EDIT: I watched football games on Monday and didn't even consider going to the theater. IMO, people who want to compare movies by adjusting for inflation are way off base. There are so many more option for entertainment today that the comparisons over 10, 20, 30 years don't make any sense.

Really there is no way to like fairly compare movies that is why really it only makes sinces to compare movies that come out the same year so they have like the same things to deal with just way to many factors. If you go back years and years ago tickets cost way less and over all it was way easier money wise to make it you didn't have video games, movies stayed in theaters much longer, didn't have Netflix or ways to watch movies on cable, statelight etc and took movies much much longer to come out on video. Because of those things people went to the movies much more has there was just simple less to do. Don't know for sure but I beat the amount of movies that come out per year is higher today to whitch if that is true then that many more options on what movie to pick now days then the older days. Now days though you have just a much bigger WW population, international market is much bigger so way more people that could go to the movie if they want to and tickets cost much more.

 

[spiderman2]

Any estimates for Tuesday yet?

 

[Elayis]

Probably. At the same time, people who were critical of Snyder's BvS and MOS choices seem to praise and give Johnson a pass for equally unexpected choices.

For me , that's neither here nor there whether they're a Snyder fan or not.

If they aren't, that doesn't make their argument against the film more valid and if they are an uncritical Snyder fan, it doesn't make their argument less valid.
It depends on what the argument is , not who the argument is coming from.

I was just amused by the fact that fans of Snyder, whose films are supposedly mature and complex, are not fans of a film that actually does those things with real depth and sophistication.

I’m not saying TLJ’s some indie art-house flick, but it’s certainly more intelligent and nuanced than most big budget movies. It also isn’t afraid to take chances and give the audience something a little more challenging than they’ve come to expect from franchise films.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The big similarity between the two films is indeed cynicism. That type of interpretation for both universes may be appealing to a certain section of the audience, but the reality is most people want their heroes to be heroes. If you make a film pointing out the flaws of your hero, especially one that has been loved by so many for 40 years, what type of reaction do you really expect to get when he's presented as a failure? Of course people are going to push back, the film is saying the character they look up to was never really worth looking up to in the first place.

Star Wars, DC, Marvel, James Bond, Indiana Jones, Die Hard, etc, at their core they're all very simple stories about good guys vs bad guys. They're not overly deep, they're generally not themed too heavily, it's just a classic good vs evil, hero journey stuff. And that's what people like the most, they like seeing good triumph over evil. And there's nothing wrong with that.

When people say something like 'Why must we follow the same type of story?' my retort is 'what exactly is wrong with that type of story?'. If the argument is we've seen it a thousand times before I don't know if that's a good enough justification. You're advocating change for the sake of it not because there's something wrong with the structure. Different doesn't automatically mean good, nor does it even mean it's right. There's a reason Robin Hood has lasted for hundreds of years and that's because the foundations for that type of story have always been strong. Certain stories fit a certain mould - and sometimes that's perfectly ok.

The difference between this and Robin Hood is Star Wars is supposed to be a continuing narrative, while Robin Hood just has various adaptations of the same story. If you're going to continue a narrative for the long haul, it needs to change over time. If not, it will grow stale and get boring. In the case of Robin Hood, there is all different takes with different actors and different universe, etc. It's a night and day difference.

The galaxy is a big place, so Star Wars can easily evolve and do different things. Why do we always need the same Jedi being found on a desert planet, a death star, empire vs rebels, etc.? This is one thing that has hurt TFA for me overtime is that it has limited story possibilities for the franchise overall, and reset a similar structure that the OT had. That was a mistake, IMO. Instead of remaking ANH, they needed to do something new with Episode 7. But, given such limitations, I still argue TLJ set-up the series for more success by opening up more possibilities to explore more than fighting Death Stars. Yes, we are back to Rebels vs Empire, but Episode 7 sealed that deal. I just hope Episode IX takes up unexpected directions.

As for the box office discussion, I think TFA was a cinematic event and that maybe that was the outlier as opposed to the film that set-up the new trend. TLJ was never going to top it. Sure, the reaction to the film overall shows more division amongst the people seeing it and that is likely a contributor. But, let's face facts, this movie is still a monster. It just wasn't as big of a monster as fans expected because we expected TFA money, and that may not happen again for long time.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

28.2 Tuesday per Rth at bot. So a slight Tuesday bump, something Rogue One and TFA didn’t get until their 4th Tuesday. Good number.

 

[InCali]

28.2 Tuesday per Rth at bot. So a slight Tuesday bump, something Rogue One and TFA didn’t get until their 4th Tuesday. Good number.

And the roller coaster ride continues......