The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

TLJ Worldwide Box Office

  • $2 Billion +

  • $1.8 - $2 Billion

  • $1.6 - 1.8 Billion

  • $1.4 - $1.6 Billion

  • $1.2 - $1.4 Billion

  • $1.0 - $1.2 Billion

  • under $1 Billion

  • $2 Billion +

  • $1.8 - $2 Billion

  • $1.6 - 1.8 Billion

  • $1.4 - $1.6 Billion

  • $1.2 - $1.4 Billion

  • $1.0 - $1.2 Billion

  • under $1 Billion

  • $2 Billion +

  • $1.8 - $2 Billion

  • $1.6 - 1.8 Billion

  • $1.4 - $1.6 Billion

  • $1.2 - $1.4 Billion

  • $1.0 - $1.2 Billion

  • under $1 Billion

Results are only viewable after voting.
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Good to see a boost!
 
los pollos said:
My take on this movie's disappointing legs so far:

1) This movie has mixed WOM, I don't see how you can deny it. There is a significant portion of people who are sour on this movie and are making it known across youtube, social media and to their friends and family. The mixed reception also impacts repeat views.
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There is certainly some truth to this. I was in initially apprehensive to consider that a possibility but I do think there is definitely some mixed WoM at play here. I have seen so many folks all over the interwebz sharing their anecdotal evidence of the dislike for TLJ that I'm starting to believe that it's not just isolated internet chatter but something to take into account for analysis.

2) This movie is pretty long. 2 hours 35 mins kinda hurts the number of possible showtimes theaters can play, the families who have impatient kids, as well as people who don't love the movie, but were willing to make repeat viewings. This movie is 20 minutes longer than Force Awakens by comparison.
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This is a very good point. The number of showtimes is definitely going to be less than TFA and Rogue One because of the bigger run-time. Theaters will find it difficult to accommodate TLJ when there are other shorter family movies running simultaneously and then what also affects TLJ is the very next point which you made.......

3) Actual competition. Jumanji is eating into this movie's revenue in a significant way, it grew from an estimate of $14M for CD to $19M in actuals at the same time TLJ dropped from $32 in estimates to $27.5M in actuals. They both go after the same audiences, but Jumanji might be attracting enough families away from Star Wars to make an impact against it.
Click to expand...

Jumanji is killing it at the BO. It has come above estimates in everyday it has been in theaters. It is simply smashing all kinds of expectations. I think it's pretty evident what with Jumanji raking in awesome numbers (coming well above estimates) while TLJ huffs and puffs and basically crash lands on one of the busiest days of the year (Christmas Day), that folks are choosing Jumanji as their go to family movie during the Holidays. That's not to say TLJ is being overlooked (perspective is key because TLJ is still pulling massive numbers) but Jumanji is taking a considerable chunk out of Ep VIII. I don't think anyone here (possibly extending to industry folks. BO analysts and even Studio Execs) saw that coming.

The China numbers are also looking like it's going to be pretty weak, since Gavin Feng is saying that the pre-sales are likely leading to a sub-$30M opening.https://***********/weier1231997/status/945465768371613696
Click to expand...

It's common knowledge that China dislikes/hates Star Wars so that's not surprising. Like, at all. Anyone could have seen that coming. Rogue One pandered to the Chinese audience with Donnie Yen (one of the biggest stars of China who also happens to be very big in other parts of Asia) and Jiang Wen and it basically bombed over in China. Finishing with a mere 69 million. TFA actually had a respectable gross in China (125 million) but it opened huge and then fell drastically because the Chinese audience hated it.
 
THR is currently reporting that the predicted final gross will be around 1.6 billion.
 
CaptainWagner said:
THR is currently reporting that the predicted final gross will be around 1.6 billion.
Click to expand...

Seems a bit too high, no??

I mean I think TLJ at best can finish with (680-700) (my super optimistic prediction but not an actual projection based on daily numbers) million in the domestic market. That will be a very good result for the movie. But for TLJ to hit 1.6 billion WW, it'll hafta rake in 900 million from the OS markets. That doesn't seem very likely.

TLJ and TFA both opened without China in the 1st 2 weekends and TLJ has become progressively worse when pitted against TFA's collection from 2 years ago. TLJ opened at 83.2% of TFA in it's Int'l OW but then dropped quite big on it's sophomore weekend and it's 2nd Int'l weekend was 56.3% of TFA's 2nd Int'l weekend. TFA never really let up in it's run so it's difficult to see TLJ making ground on it. It'll possibly go even lower in the coming weekends (Weekend 4th onward).

Again looking at TLJ against R1 also paints a similar picture in the sense that TLJ isn't doing an awful lot to stay well ahead of R1 and make a case for 1.6 billion WW. R1 opened to 58.5% of TLJ during it's Overseas OW but it recovered a bit next weekend by grossing 62.8% of TLJ.

TLJ is already down at 69.7% of TFA after 2 weekends (not including Christmas Monday and if we include the Monday after 2nd Sunday, TLJ will most likely cover about 68.5% of TFA). It can go further down and it probably will. TLJ will need to do 79.7% of TFA to reach 1.6 billion WW. So I think that may be out of reach nao.
 
Yeah, I think HR is still using older projections. Feels like 1.3-1.4 billion to me now.
 
The Last Jedi pre-sale really sucks in China…Won’t be surprised if Chinese lifetime gross < North American previews = $45M.

https://***********/weier1231997/st...share|twsrc^m5|twgr^email|twcon^7046|twterm^2
 
SomeOldGuy said:
28.2 Tuesday per Rth at bot. So a slight Tuesday bump, something Rogue One and TFA didn’t get until their 4th Tuesday. Good number.
Click to expand...

That's a very good number. Among the top 4, TLJ & PP3 increased while Jumanji and TGS decreased. So it looks like Jumanji was definitely the 1st choice for many on Christmas Day and it fell back to normal numbers on a non-holiday. I think nao or from next weekend when more schools will be closed, TLJ will see a good deal of upgrade in daily numbers. That's a point we seem to have overlooked in our analysis.

TLJ needs to hit 525 million as on 31st Dec. 2017 for a 650 million final haul. This number puts that target firmly back in contention. TLJ nao needs 5 more good days and then the uncertain/slightly skewed circumstances relating to calendar configuration will cease to exist which makes 680 million+ a possibility.
 
And with no big releases this week and only Insidious 4 next week?
 
gerrym51 said:
Just like experts kept quoting JL-which kept coming down

1.3-1.4
Click to expand...

1.4-1.6 would be an excellent turn out, that's what I put in for the poll choice in the first place. The 1.3-1.4 is ok too, most movies would kill for that, right? But that will be below expectation.
 
Blitzkrieg said:
That's a very good number. Among the top 4, TLJ & PP3 increased while Jumanji and TGS decreased. So it looks like Jumanji was definitely the 1st choice for many on Christmas Day and it fell back to normal numbers on a non-holiday. I think nao or from next weekend when more schools will be closed, TLJ will see a good deal of upgrade in daily numbers. That's a point we seem to have overlooked in our analysis.

TLJ needs to hit 525 million as on 31st Dec. 2017 for a 650 million final haul. This number puts that target firmly back in contention. TLJ nao needs 5 more good days and then the uncertain/slightly skewed circumstances relating to calendar configuration will cease to exist which makes 680 million+ a possibility.
Click to expand...

I think it will be well over 525 by the end of Sunday. Basically 20M per day does it. I see more in the cards than that AND it has a good corridor upcoming.
 
With Tuesday it’s around 423 and today through Sunday should be around 100. So yeah, 525-ish seems likely. New Years Day will probably be another 15-20 at least, and a lot of schools don’t go back until the 8th, so next week should be solid, too.

I’m still thinking around 680 when the dust settles.
 
Sithborg said:
It is always possible that TFA was the anomaly, and that Rogue One and what appears to be TLJ are the more likely performances.
Click to expand...
Yeah but this film will finish significantly higher than Rogue One.
 
If this movie does Avengers numbers I'll be extremely happy.
 
i must point out -2 years ago the 'discount tuesday' was farther away from christmas. It's possible that christmas goers opted for discount tuesday.

as it is this number is still 1 million below TFA.

I've noticed that gloom pervades and then one days good number and gloom dissipates..

lets see what wednesday differance from TFA is. if its small it will be ok.
 
I think $1.6B would have been a good target before the film came out. As long as it doesn’t make less than say $1.4B then all is still fine.
 
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