The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[Shadow Moses]

Forbes are really going out of their way to defend this movie. Doesn't matter how they report this story. If the movie ends up like 1.2b (800m+ less than TFA) heads will roll at Disney.

 

[Aximili86]

Except for the whole thing of, you know, no they won't. 1.2 billion, oh no, not a billion bucks profit! We're really roughing it here. HERE COMES IGER, OUT FOR BLOOD!

Not gonna happen.

And it'll probably be higher than 1.2, all said and done.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Forbes are really going out of their way to defend this movie. Doesn't matter how they report this story. If the movie ends up like 1.2b (800m+ less than TFA) heads will roll at Disney.

Like how Feige got fired for AoU and Civil War.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$19.5 Thursday, per Rth. Another good day.

 

[gerrym51]

Except for the whole thing of, you know, no they won't. 1.2 billion, oh no, not a billion bucks profit! We're really roughing it here. HERE COMES IGER, OUT FOR BLOOD!

Not gonna happen.

And it'll probably be higher than 1.2, all said and done.

using the 50 percent rule-which actually doesn't apply to this movie since disney negotiated 70 percent in usa.

However 50 percent of 1.2 billion is 600 million-obviously. 250 cost plus marketing for overall costs 400 million.

so at least 300 million profit. However billion profit no

 

[Spider-Fan]

using the 50 percent rule-which actually doesn't apply to this movie since disney negotiated 70 percent in usa.

However 50 percent of 1.2 billion is 600 million-obviously. 250 cost plus marketing for overall costs 400 million.

so at least 300 million profit. However billion profit no

True on the ticket sales front, but you're not factoring in the massive amount in toy sales and such Disney will be making.

 

[007]

True on the ticket sales front, but you're not factoring in the massive amount in toy sales and such Disney will be making.

Disney don't make anything on merchandize, Lucas still owns those rights.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Disney don't make anything on merchandize, Lucas still owns those rights.

I am searching that on Google, and I am not seeing that. All articles on the sale I am seeing say they acquired the Merchandise rights, also. In fact, an article in Forbes I am seeing says Disney was paid 225 million by Hasbro to produce Star Wars toys in 2013.

 

[Erzengel]

using the 50 percent rule-which actually doesn't apply to this movie since disney negotiated 70 percent in usa.

However 50 percent of 1.2 billion is 600 million-obviously. 250 cost plus marketing for overall costs 400 million.

so at least 300 million profit. However billion profit no

Deadline reported that TFA didn't get a $1B profit with TFA.

The net profit to Disney was an astounding $780.11M, and the Cash on Cash Return was twice that of any other film in the tournament, at 2.00.

http://deadline.com/2016/03/star-wa...ovie-profit-2015-lucasfilm-disney-1201726142/

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Between the theatrical run and all the home video ancillaries, I’d guesstimate Disney will turn a profit in the $400-500 million range on TLJ. Ain’t no one getting fired over that.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I was expecting TLJ to just scrape past 20 million on Thursday and drop around 5% (exact would be 20.425 million). 19.5 million would be a 10.8% drop from Wednesday. Nao my weekend projection will look like 21.4 million (Fri) + 24.6 million (Sat) + 17.2 million = 63.2 million.

 

[InCali]

Between the theatrical run and all the home video ancillaries, I’d guesstimate Disney will turn a profit in the $400-500 million range on TLJ. Ain’t no one getting fired over that.

Someone may be getting something, but it won't be fired.

 

[Timebomb]

Guys, TLJ happened. I don't think Disney has any plans of going backwards. IMO Rian will get the next trilogy regardless of what happens now. I am personally excited for it. I think Disney wishes more fans loved it but I get no impression that they are disappointed in it by any means.

 

[InCali]

Guys, TLJ happened. I don't think Disney has any plans of going backwards. IMO Rian will get the next trilogy regardless of what happens now. I am personally excited for it. I think Disney wishes more fans loved it but I get no impression that they are disappointed in it by any means.

You can always wish more fans loved any movie, but with a number of 530M or so at the DOM BO after 17 days and very good critical acclaim, I'd have to say they are satisfied that enough people loved it.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I was expecting TLJ to just scrape past 20 million on Thursday and drop around 5% (exact would be 20.425 million). 19.5 million would be a 10.8% drop from Wednesday. Nao my weekend projection will look like 21.4 million (Fri) + 24.6 million (Sat) + 17.2 million = 63.2 million.

Boxoffice.com is projecting $79 million for the four-day so that sounds about right.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Someone may be getting something, but it won't be fired.

Yup.

 

[spiderman2]

So if that 19.5 holds the movie is at about 911.7 WW+ what ever it did OS on Thursday. If that 79 million 4 day weekend happens then the movie will be at like 990.7 by the end of Monday + its Thursday- Monday OS numbers. With its OS numbers it should be close to 1.1 billion by the end of Monday then.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

It's interesting that for Episode IX, they really can't rely on nostalgia for the marketing push. This will be the true test of audience's affection for Rey, Poe and Finn.

The third (and final entry) always gets a boost, and audiences seem invested enough in this iteration of the story. Disney should be pleased with the performance of TLJ overall, but the WOM might impact IX.

 

[dataSlave]

Deadline reported that TFA didn't get a $1B profit with TFA.



http://deadline.com/2016/03/star-wa...ovie-profit-2015-lucasfilm-disney-1201726142/

The NY Times did a piece in early 2016. Looks like the came up with a similar bottom line. Essentially $800 million for TFA the movie plus $500 mil for merchandise.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/19/...s-the-force-awakens-will-make-for-disney.html

 

[dataSlave]

True on the ticket sales front, but you're not factoring in the massive amount in toy sales and such Disney will be making.

Merchandise will be a lot lower than for RO, much less TFA. Container shipments of merchandise from China represent 80% of total merch. They were down 47% from RO and 56% from TFA. Dollar drop should be less because of inflation but those are big numbers.

http://sciencefiction.com/2017/12/21/star-wars-last-jedi-toy-shipments/

Incidentally, this article published one week ago was using $785 million as the estimate for cumulative domestic gross BO. It's pretty clear the opening weekend really skewed expectations.

 

[dataSlave]

using the 50 percent rule-which actually doesn't apply to this movie since disney negotiated 70 percent in usa.

However 50 percent of 1.2 billion is 600 million-obviously. 250 cost plus marketing for overall costs 400 million.

so at least 300 million profit. However billion profit no

I've seen 20-40% as the range for overseas studio split. Is this not correct? The Deadline article used 25% for China and 40% for other non-US markets with TFA. The NYT article used 52.3% global split for TFA but didn't break down margins between domestic and intl.

 

[gerrym51]

True on the ticket sales front, but you're not factoring in the massive amount in toy sales and such Disney will be making.

this is a box office thread. it is profits based on boxoffice vs costs.

ancillary revenue streams are ancillary revenue streams

 

[Silver Surfer]

Like how Feige got fired for AoU and Civil War.

Ultron made 5% less than TA1 overall, this will make 30-40% less. Don't agree with the heads roling part, but TLJ and Ultron are not a valid comparison.

 

[Spider-Fan]

this is a box office thread. it is profits based on boxoffice vs costs.

ancillary revenue streams are ancillary revenue streams

I get that, but when people are saying how the movie is not making a ton of profit, it is something needed to take into account.

 

[Flemm]

Ultron made 5% less than TA1 overall, this will make 30-40% less. Don't agree with the heads roling part, but TLJ and Ultron are not a valid comparison.

I don't think Feige and Marvel Studios is a very relevant comparison overall, because the whole thing was such an underdog and upstart venture to begin with.

It could have failed, and then the whole thing would have gone under. But, by the time Age of Ultron rolled around, the MCU experiment had already succeeded so far beyond anyone's original expectations that a somewhat under-whelming Avengers sequel hardly mattered.

The MCU started with nothing and built itself into one of the most successful franchises worldwide.

Star Wars is not an upstart or an underdog. It is probably the biggest pop culture franchise in North America. Internationally, it is more of a mixed bag, though Star Wars certainly does very well in a lot of places.

So this franchise needs to be evaluated with that in mind. There is a whole spectrum of possible reactions in between "Fire everyone!" and "Everything is great!"

I think this movie won't justify either of those reactions. At the box office, it is probably going to be perceived as a little disappointing, but not overly so, depending on where the movie ends up, exactly.

But there are other factors to consider, such as the long-term strategy. So, we'll see. It's an interesting case.