The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[Darepool]

The obvious problem with this is you are saying this when the original came in the third highest grossing film of all time, and by far the biggest domestic gross of all time.

Also accounting for an overseas dropped aided by a stronger dollar.

In no would is 1.3bil not good.

I understand, the number in itself is excellent based on those conditions, but it would likely be framed as a disappointment by a certain section of fans and media. If it made 1.7 or even 1.6 billion it would be much harder for such claims to stick.

I always expected a drop, but never even considered anything below 1.5 billion. I just assumed it would take the #1 mantle for the year by a hefty margin with it being Star Wars and all. I'm sure many felt the same.

 

[TheVileOne]

I understand, the number in itself is excellent based on those conditions, but it would likely be framed as a disappointment by a certain section of fans and media. If it made 1.7 or even 1.6 billion it would be much harder for such claims to stick.

I always expected a drop, but never even considered anything below 1.5 billion. I just assumed it would take the #1 mantle for the year by a hefty margin with it being Star Wars and all.

It's still going to do that.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The dollar is currently a bit weaker than it was 2 years ago.

Proof? Because the pound would be a lot weaker post Brexit.

Also, we are talking about a film that is seeing what was a 47% viewings in 3D, cut down to 30%. That even takes out the inflation in the domestic gross.

 

[Mysteryman]

I understand, the number in itself is excellent based on those conditions, but it would likely be framed as a disappointment by a certain section of fans and media. If it made 1.7 or even 1.6 billion it would be much harder for such claims to stick. I'm sure many felt the same.

I always expected a drop, but never even considered anything below 1.5 billion. I just assumed it would take the #1 mantle for the year by a hefty margin with it being Star Wars and all.

If somebody came to me and said that he wanted to give me 1.7 billion but all that he had was 1.3 billion, I would take that money so fast, his head would spin.

 

[cristianegan]

Proof? Because the pound would be a lot weaker post Brexit.

Also, we are talking about a film that is seeing what was a 47% viewings in 3D, cut down to 30%. That even takes out the inflation in the domestic gross.

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/...the-last-jedi/?do=findComment&comment=3294122

 

[Darepool]

If somebody came to me and said that he wanted to give me 1.7 billion but all that he had was 1.3 billion, I would take that money so fast, his head would spin.

Sure, take what you can get.

 

[Aximili86]

Guys, anything over a billion or a little more is going to be seen as a mega-success.

It was never going to do TFA money, that was a unicorn situation. This "less money, fan backlash is a thing!" train of thought needs to stop. This is still a monster of a movie no matter which way you look at it, Lucasfilm and Disney are going to be gleefully grinning.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I understand, the number in itself is excellent based on those conditions, but it would likely be framed as a disappointment by a certain section of fans and media. If it made 1.7 or even 1.6 billion it would be much harder for such claims to stick.

I always expected a drop, but never even considered anything below 1.5 billion. I just assumed it would take the #1 mantle for the year by a hefty margin with it being Star Wars and all. I'm sure many felt the same.

So are we basing this on doom merchants or reality?

 

[spiderman2]

Proof? Because the pound would be a lot weaker post Brexit.

Also, we are talking about a film that is seeing what was a 47% viewings in 3D, cut down to 30%. That even takes out the inflation in the domestic gross.

Where do you find things like that about 3d? I have never seen any thing about the amount of 3d vs 2d tickets that a movie has sold. The only thing I have even seen kind of like that was that Iron man 3 witch made about 1.2 billion would have made about 900 million with out 3d meaning it made a extra like 300 million by 3d or about 25% of its told but not ever movie is going to make the same % from 3d of course.

 

[spiderman2]

Agreed, it doesn't work that way.

But a 700 m drop would not be great either. I think 300-400 million would be more then acceptable.

700 is a lot and yes 300-400 would be much better plus while it is to early to know for sure this could end up maybe with even worse legs then RO.

The obvious problem with this is you are saying this when the original came in the third highest grossing film of all time, and by far the biggest domestic gross of all time.

Also accounting for an overseas dropped aided by a stronger dollar.

In no world is 1.3bil not good. It would be the 9th highest grossing film of all time.

1.3 is not good when the movie before it in the franchise did 2 billion and with the reception to this you have to wonder how it could impact the next one. What if 9 has like another 300 million and only makes like a billion? Then you are going to be talking about a 50% decline between 2 movies and 50% even with 4 years of inflation and a billion would mean the same has a spin off something that only like the die hard fans where going to be interested in seeing in the first place compared to episode movies where ever one should be wanting to see it.

Hardly anyone is shooting in 3D anymore anyway. IMAX discontinued 3D showings. It's pretty much dead.

Why do you say that? The closes Imax to me only shows 3d don't even do 2d.

 

[Mysteryman]

Guys, anything over a billion or a little more is going to be seen as a mega-success.

It was never going to do TFA money, that was a unicorn situation. This "less money, fan backlash is a thing!" train of thought needs to stop. This is still a monster of a movie no matter which way you look at it, Lucasfilm and Disney are going to be gleefully grinning.

Exactly.
Well Said.

 

[Silver Surfer]

As cutthroat a machine as Disney is, there is now way they look at a 30-40% overall drop in box office revenue as business as usual. They undoubtedly forecasted a drop, but no one expected this to come under Ultron worldwide.

 

[Mysteryman]

As cutthroat a machine as Disney is, there is now way they look at a 30-40% overall drop in box office revenue as business as usual. They undoubtedly forecasted a drop, but no one expected this to come under Ultron worldwide.

Disappointment doesn't always translate into panic.

 

[spiderman2]

While that is true because this movie is still going to make a big profit. Its not like the movie is in danger of not making a profit or something but you know they cant be happy and I am sure they are surprised.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Disappointment doesn't always translate into panic.

Panic is DCEU, this is no where near that. However, this is no doubt not living up to consensus expectations. No one saw a 1/3rd drop in boxoffice coming.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Where do you find things like that about 3d? I have never seen any thing about the amount of 3d vs 2d tickets that a movie has sold. The only thing I have even seen kind of like that was that Iron man 3 witch made about 1.2 billion would have made about 900 million with out 3d meaning it made a extra like 300 million by 3d or about 25% of its told but not ever movie is going to make the same % from 3d of course.

It was posted in the BoxofficeTheory.com thread during the original weekend. I told you this then.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

1.3 is not good when the movie before it in the franchise did 2 billion and with the reception to this you have to wonder how it could impact the next one. What if 9 has like another 300 million and only makes like a billion? Then you are going to be talking about a 50% decline between 2 movies and 50% even with 4 years of inflation and a billion would mean the same has a spin off something that only like the die hard fans where going to be interested in seeing in the first place compared to episode movies where ever one should be wanting to see it.

Let me ask you a question. Was the Empire Strikes Back a failure at the box office? Because adjusted for inflation Star Wars did about 1.3 billion at the box office domestically, while Empire did a 700m. These are the original numbers, not including the Special Edition re-releases.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=starwars.htm

This is before we get into the fact that this is the third Star Wars movie in 3 years.

 

[spiderman2]

It was posted in the BoxofficeTheory.com thread during the original weekend. I told you this then.

I don't think I saw that or where you found that info.

Let me ask you a question. Was the Empire Strikes Back a failure at the box office? Because adjusted for inflation Star Wars did about 1.3 billion at the box office domestically, while Empire did a 700m. These are the original numbers, not including the Special Edition re-releases.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=starwars.htm

This is before we get into the fact that this is the third Star Wars movie in 3 years.

700 million is still a lot. I fell like you are acting like it is not and if it being the 3erd year in a row with a star wars movie is really a problem then should Disney wait after episode 9 to do like a 10 or another spin off or something for a little bit? Not saying they have to go like 20 years or any thing but would they be better off going like 5 years after episode 9 so like 2024 for the next one then just coming out with another star wars movie in 2020 or 2021? Also comparing ANH to empire is not really far because when ANH came out it was like nothing seen before and no other star wars movie was going to like create that kind of thing. That would be like comparing the first Spider-Man movie and its ticket sales to the other Spider-Man movies.

 

[spiderman2]

So have we gotten any news about Thursday numbers yet?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't think I saw that or where you found that info.



700 million is still a lot. I fell like you are acting like it is not and if it being the 3erd year in a row with a star wars movie is really a problem then should Disney wait after episode 9 to do like a 10 or another spin off or something for a little bit? Not saying they have to go like 20 years or any thing but would they be better off going like 5 years after episode 9 so like 2024 for the next one then just coming out with another star wars movie in 2020 or 2021? Also comparing ANH to empire is not really far because when ANH came out it was like nothing seen before and no other star wars movie was going to like create that kind of thing. That would be like comparing the first Spider-Man movie and its ticket sales to the other Spider-Man movies.

The Last Jedi, after this weekend, is going to end up one of the 10 highest grossing films in domestic history.

But forget about that. Your comparison was about how much of a drop off TLJ was from TFA. Attempts to adjust for Star Wars run wild because of oversea numbers. But goes something like between 2.3bil to 2.8. billion. I don't think I have ever seen Empire adjusted over 1.5bil. Usually between that and 1.2bil.
Was Empire a failure?

And it isn't a problem. Because they just made 3 films that have already totaled over 4bil. You think they are going to throw at least 1.3bil on one film? No.

 

[TheVileOne]

So have we gotten any news about Thursday numbers yet?

Those won't be out until tomorrow.

 

[TheVileOne]

700 is a lot and yes 300-400 would be much better plus while it is to early to know for sure this could end up maybe with even worse legs then RO.



1.3 is not good when the movie before it in the franchise did 2 billion and with the reception to this you have to wonder how it could impact the next one. What if 9 has like another 300 million and only makes like a billion? Then you are going to be talking about a 50% decline between 2 movies and 50% even with 4 years of inflation and a billion would mean the same has a spin off something that only like the die hard fans where going to be interested in seeing in the first place compared to episode movies where ever one should be wanting to see it.



Why do you say that? The closes Imax to me only shows 3d don't even do 2d.

Sorry, they are phasing it out and it's no longer their default.

http://www.slashfilm.com/imax-3d-phasing-out/

Straight from CEO Greg Foster:

“It’s worth noting ‘Dunkirk’ was showing exclusively in 2-D, which consumers have shown a strong preference for… The demand for 2D films is starting to exceed 3D in North America.”

 

[spiderman2]

Sorry, they are phasing it out and it's no longer their default.

http://www.slashfilm.com/imax-3d-phasing-out/

Straight from CEO Greg Foster:

Oh I see interesting I wonder like how fast they are phasing things out.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...-catches-up-with-jurassic-world/#6123f8c55349

As the Dixie Chicks might say, The Last Jedi may have been taking the long way around. Or, as Morpheus might have said, whatever happened happened and couldn't have happened any other way. The Last Jedi was never going to be a $750 million+ domestic grosser, nor was it ever going to flirt with $2 billion worldwide, and I assume those who presumed as much were the same folks who chastised The Force Awakens for not earning $3 billion two years ago. Yes, we do get lightning in a bottle moments here and there, but there is generally a ceiling on this kind of thing. I'm dying to see how the film plays in its third weekend, as anecdotal evidence suggests that plenty of folks haven't seen it yet but plan to before the holiday break comes to an end. But for now, with the film likely crossing $900m worldwide today (it has $891m global as of yesterday), Star Wars: The Last Jedi is doing pretty darn well.

 

[Aximili86]

As cutthroat a machine as Disney is, there is now way they look at a 30-40% overall drop in box office revenue as business as usual. They undoubtedly forecasted a drop, but no one expected this to come under Ultron worldwide.

In what world does a 30-40% drop from the biggest (second biggest? can't remember if it topped Avatar) film of all time translate to this "Disney's going to be worried" mentality?

Even if it doesn't top Age Of Ultron, which honestly it probably will, that's still an enormous movie. What did this cost to make, 200 mil, less? Even if you say 300 with the advertising budget added, I don't think the Disney execs are going to starve with their 700 million dollar plus profit.

This. Is. Insane.

"Not The Force Awakens level huge" does not mean "not bigger than most movies that've ever been made, ever-ever". Oh no, so it's the 5th or 6th biggest movie ever and not the 2nd. Better course-correct how we're running Lucasfilm, I guess! THEY HAVE ISSUES!