The Last Jedi The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction Thread

[Silver Surfer]

So in about 3-4 days we have gone from it coming under JW, to it coming under TA1, to it coming under Ultron, and now we are mulling a 1.2 billion final figure?

 

[spiderman2]

There was a moment once where I really thought that Force Awakens could make a billion domestic

I think some people thought it had a shoot after weekend 4 of doing that or something but then had a little bigger drop that weekend or something would have been awesome if it had done that. Any guess how long it will take for a movie to do that?

No TFA had 540 Domestic vs 546 OS after it's first weekend (day 10 totals). Previously I was talking about Rogue One's domestic total at 532 million. I'm confusing myself too.

Oh lol my dyslexicness there lol I think I kind of read that backwards.

 

[Warlock]

Here is the summary of the 3 movies at the same time points thus far:

TLJ Domestic/Foreign
Day 10 $368,167,854/$380,300,000
Day 12 $423,361,767/$420,200,000
Total?

TFA Domestic/Foreign
Day 10 $540,058,914/$546,000,000
Day 12 $600,949,526/?
Total $936,662,225/$1131,561,339

RO Domestic/Foreign
Day 10 $286,033,442/$237,400,000
Day 12 $340,634,691/?
Total $532,177,324/$523,879,949

If someone else has the foreign breakdowns by day that would help complete it.

 

[spiderman2]

So in about 3-4 days we have gone from it coming under JW, to it coming under TA1, to it coming under Ultron, and now we are mulling a 1.2 billion final figure?

lol that Gift is perfect. Next thing you know people are going to say it will make less then 1.1 lol.

 

[Silver Surfer]

I think some people thought it had a shoot after weekend 4 of doing that or something but then had a little bigger drop that weekend or something would have been awesome if it had done that. Any guess how long it will take for a movie to do that?

1 Billion domestic? Geez. Avatar 2 has a shot because James Cameron, enough said. Other than that I don't know if we'll see one in the next decade.

Star Wars will never be as big as TFA again, not unless it takes a massive hiatus to build up anticipation. Harry Potter was big in the US but not huge, so it's original cast returning won't draw that high. Don't think IW has a prayer, Avengers 4's absolute Everest high projection would top out at 800 million. Maybe Avengers Vs X-Men years from now can benefit from inflation and be a lightning in a bottle situation, but even that I would bet against.

 

[spiderman2]

1 Billion domestic? Geez. Avatar 2 has a shot because James Cameron, enough said. Other than that I don't know if we'll see one in the next decade.

Star Wars will never be as big as TFA again, not unless it takes a massive hiatus to build up anticipation. Harry Potter was big in the US but not huge, so it's original cast returning won't draw that high. Don't think IW has a prayer, Avengers 4's absolute Everest high projection would top out at 800 million. Maybe Avengers Vs X-Men years from now can benefit from inflation and be a lightning in a bottle situation, but even that I would bet against.

While I was going to say maybe inflation and when the average ticket price is like 20 for a ticket

 

[TheVileOne]

The Force Awakens was a rare lightning in a bottle moment, and that's not going to happen again anytime soon.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The Force Awakens was a rare lightning in a bottle moment, and that's not going to happen again anytime soon.

Infinity War has a chance imo. If it isn't too front loaded.

 

[Silver Surfer]

IW won't hit 650mil, let alone 1 billion domestic. It will do better than Ultron, and it's overseas growth will most likely lead it past TA1 at 1.5 billion, but it isn't touching TFA.

 

[007]

IW won't hit 650mil, let alone 1 billion domestic. It will do better than Ultron, and it's overseas growth will most likely lead it past TA1 at 1.5 billion, but it isn't touching TFA.

You seem very confident of that, given its the most anticipated movie of the decade.

 

[Iceman]

TFA is probably too far out (domestically looks unbeatable for now) but I could see IW beating TLJ.

 

[Mandon Knight]

You seem very confident of that, given its the most anticipated movie of the decade.

I think that's slightly 'egging the pudding'.

 

[Iceman]

2nd most might have been fair.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I know this is an unusual time of year, but wouldn't a usual Tues-Wed drop be in the range of about 30%? Maybe tomorrow will be softer because of people being out of school, and the weekend upswing would also be less dramatic. Seems reasonable to me anyway.

IF that's the case, a 30% drop from Tuesday numbers would still put TLJ comfortably over 20M. If that's the case, I think we could expect at least 3 of the next 4 days to also be over 20M. That puts TLJ well over 525M with New Year's Day yet to come.

We'll know more in 5 days, but that's sort of how I see things playing out.

What say you to that?

Yeah, I was thinking a maybe 30% slide. Looks like it may be less tho; over at bot Rth says around $22 million for Wednesday. If that holds it would be a very good number. But really I’d take anything above 20.

 

[007]

I think that's slightly 'egging the pudding'.

Just look at how much that trailer has been watched, how much it was watched in the first 48 hours.

 

[gerrym51]

Just look at how much that trailer has been watched, how much it was watched in the first 48 hours.

is there a breakdown of New viewers vs Repeat viewers of this trailer.

Just wondering?

 

[Gladius Nova]

You seem very confident of that, given its the most anticipated movie of the decade.

Uhh...says who? I think TFA has that beat.

 

[gerrym51]

I think that's slightly 'egging the pudding'.

I wondered what 'egging the pudding' meant-and then i saw you were from england.

However this is bubble syndrome for most of us. The general audience is no more into this avengers movie as any avengers movie.

My wife for one-who is general audience couldn't care less.

I will see it she won't.

It will do typical avengers box office-which will be huge because it's Avengers

 

[Mandon Knight]

I wondered what 'egging the pudding' meant-and then i saw you were from england.

However this is bubble syndrome for most of us. The general audience is no more into this avengers movie as any avengers movie.

My wife for one-who is general audience couldn't care less.

I will see it she won't.

It will do typical avengers box office-which will be huge because it's Avengers

I've no doubt it will do mega numbers, not questioning that at all, but for it to be labelled 'the most anticipated film of the decade, 2010 onwards', is pushing it, for me, anyway.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So around 22 million according to Rth over at BOT. That would be a 20.6% drop from Tuesday. It's another good number. TLJ stays on course for 525 million before 2018.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

It's got no real strong competition coming out other than Insidious, which is a horror film.

It's got little to no competition in all of January. The only movies that can potentially break out in Jan '18 are The Post (1st choice movie for adult moviegoers plus Academy consideration in the offing), Paddington 2 (this one is primed for a breakout as it has been received very well almost everywhere it has relaased so far and the family crowd will likely eat this one up in the rest of the Holiday stretch) and Proud Mary (it can really surprise at the BO).

But none of them are sure things atm and January looks totally barren and TLJ can and really should get the best out of it. I'll be surprised if TLJ doesn't do very well from the 1st week of Jan '18.

 

[Shadow Moses]

Infinity War has a chance imo. If it isn't too front loaded.

No chance IMO. It will do solid Avengers number but no more. It will have a big opening and will drop off. Similar to Civil War and TLJ. The first Avengers movie and TFA are lightning in a bottle.

 

[JOE]

TFA was the most anticipated movie of the decade, wasn't even close.

 

[gerrym51]

Where this movie is after 19 days-next tuesday is basically where it will end up. It will make some additional but tuesday is the day.

As far as legs thru weak january if you guessed the number of movies that were suppossed rack up big box office thru weak periods there would not be many.

I actually suspect Jumanji will win January

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Yeah, I was thinking a maybe 30% slide. Looks like it may be less tho; over at bot Rth says around $22 million for Wednesday. If that holds it would be a very good number. But really I’d take anything above 20.

I didn't even realize you already posted the number from Rth.

I was looking for new posts from you for updates and didn't realize that you put in the Wed. figure in a reply post. Seems like some BO sites are projecting 21.5 million for the day. The drop (22.4%) is still good and New Year can further bring a major upswing in dailies.